Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[spin0]

Yup, he's a Nazi scumbag... and so are alot of his friends. And so are many pro-Russian elements in and around the situation. And so, apparently, are many of the pro-Russian "anti-Imperialist" web propagandists. It's filthy.

Yup, and not forgetting the Nashi types cloaking as "anti-fascists".

I'm rooting for an inexplicable wave of Nazi mass suicides.

That, and I'm also rooting for the May 25th election to know what the Ukrainians actually want. Unfortunately not sure if Russia would allow free&fair election in Ukraine.

 

[Puppycow]

Financial markets reaction:

Russian markets take fright on Putin threat to Ukraine

(Reuters) - Russian stocks and bonds fell sharply and the central bank hiked interest rates and burned through $10 billion of its reserves on Monday to prop up the rouble as markets took fright at the escalating tensions with neighboring Ukraine.

Investors were ditching all Russian assets alike - the rouble, stocks and bonds. The Ukrainian hryvnia has firmed since

curbs were imposed on deposit withdrawals last week, but Ukrainian eurobonds fell sharply.

Russia's central bank unexpectedly raised its key lending rate - the one-week repurchasing agreement - to 7 percent from 5.5 percent, in an attempt to stem capital flight.

The central bank did not mention Ukraine in its statement, but said the decision to raise rates was aimed at preventing "risks to inflation and financial stability associated with the recently increased level of volatility in the financial markets".

Traders estimated that the central bank spent $10 billion, or 2 percent, of its gold and foreign exchange reserves keeping the rouble from spiraling down too fast.

I think that's actually a pretty big deal. Will it get Putin's attention though?

 

[spin0]

Financial markets reaction:
Russian markets take fright on Putin threat to Ukraine

Yep, markets got decimated in a day and also Putin's personal wallet got hit hard: Russia's state-run gas giant OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS) plunged 10.9% in early Moscow trading amid a broad sell-off following Russian military intervention in Ukraine.

I think that's actually a pretty big deal. Will it get Putin's attention though?

Merkel yesterday: Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said. (NYT)

 

[The Don]

Merkel yesterday: Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said. (NYT)

Indeed the drop in the Russian stock market could be spun by Putin as the West (and Zionists ?) engaging in an act of war against Mother Russia.

 

[angrysoba]

Merkel yesterday: Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said. (NYT)

Of course, when Merkel said to Obama, "I've just been on the phone to Putin. Do you know what he said?" Obama replied, "Of course I do."

 

[Travis]

Daily Beast says:
Russia's "Blackwater" seized the Crimea airports

and also the Ukrainian neo-Nazis are joining forces with their fellows in Sweden (among other places, to be sure)

Spin0, good add. Weird story. Was this "blue helmets" group just improvised? This guy and some other Ukrainian Jew former IDF guys were there protesting and just suddenly turned semi-militant, side-by-side with some aimless kids? Or is it some hired security force of the government's that defected during events? It's called a "unit" here:


He helped hold the alleged Nazis back long enough to avoid them torching the state's security forces, and/or stealing their weapons. Huh.

Anyway, confusion aside, I consider this guy credible enough, and he says:


If you go back to my post #621 you'll see that I noticed the same thing, the near total lack of display of Nazi imagery this time, and it's one of my very clues that the Nazi contingent was there, larger and better-planned than usual, and also party to agreements that stipulate things like "don't brandish your images during this thing..." That's so Spin0 et al. can be able to deny there was any Nazi involvement this time, for some odd reason, especially in the "vanguard" that descended on parliament (next post)

Okay, so your evidence they are Nazis is that there is little evidence they are Nazis.

Wow.

Please describe to me how the protest should have looked if, like, they somehow weren't Nazis?

 

[spin0]

Of course, when Merkel said to Obama, "I've just been on the phone to Putin. Do you know what he said?" Obama replied, "Of course I do."

 

[L.Y.S.]

You act as if it were a new thing. The last time Russia invaded a sovereign country was less than six years ago. It looks to be the new norm. I certainly hope NATO will extend membership to Georgia as a result. Putin will go insane.

McHrozni

And Putin didn't exercise restraint? They certainly didn't bulldoze over the country.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Btw, even if some people are paid shills at these anti-Maiden rallies, there still seems to be a lot of genuine interest.

Yeah, eastern Ukraine is going to fall to Russia. The question is how much. If eastern Ukraine is controlled by Russia, western Ukraine is certainly done for. There's no way they could get the wealth lost in the eastern regions. Their economy will certainly improve in the EU, but it will not be nearly as powerful as it could have if eastern and western Ukraine were united.

ETA: The one-sided opposition rising in Ukraine after the Yanukovych's departure could largely explain the sentiment behind the anti-maiden protests.

 

[tyr_13]

And Putin didn't exercise restraint? They certainly didn't bulldoze over the country.

You want something to cry about, I'll give you something to cry about...

 

[Caustic Logic]

Okay, so your evidence they are Nazis is that there is little evidence they are Nazis.

Wow.

Please describe to me how the protest should have looked if, like, they somehow weren't Nazis?

It's not an airtight argument, but not nearly as laughable as you think. I just updated our section - more imagery than I thought and, you may note, all off the Maidan, in the more militant area, where most of the shooting both ways happened and where the Rada and other gov. buildings were still being defended. The "vanguard." Even there, the Celtic Crosses are on the backsides of barricade panels, minimized somewhat.

See: http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Ukraine_2014#Nazi_Protesters.3F
and the mapping section below, and I emphasize again, where in the hell else would Ukraine's known neo-Nazis be that day, of all days?* Wherever most of their symbols were at (doezntmattastan)? Or are they capable of moving independently? Yes, of course, so its possible.

And then on the other side to consider is the role in Kiev of the Nazi-type parties who would've sent that muscle, disturbing and mysterious, some are noting. And also the prevalence in Kiev and elsewhere of violent gangs, firebombing synagogues, other threats, etc. that have Rabbis calling for the Jews to just leave Ukraine, for Israel to send protection, or by Israelis to just invite all Ukraine's jews "home" at this time. (all that last is a bit odd to me - it's not that bad, yet - can be found in Jews + Ukraine news search) Something right around the 20th-22nd left them feeling emboldened, nationwide. Some new dawn had risen on their glorious crusades. Or, one could infer or speculate from the surge of violence beginning then.

Theory: Nazi muscle was traded for Nazi access. Could be wrong, but it fits all this. They are anti-commie (one major part of the ousted opposition, coincidentally) and pro-business. Pro-"lustration." Sounds good, if can be co-opted, etc...

And this is not to excuse the Russian invasion, just to continue developing other parts as well of the Ukraine riots story. It seems to me that important aspect is getting enough attention already. And good job on it, everyone, to some extent.

 

[spin0]

Yeah, eastern Ukraine is going to fall to Russia.

While there certainly are pro-Russia elements in parts of eastern Ukraine, it will not 'fall to Russia' without Russia invading it too.

Even in the most pro-russia Donetsk region only 33.2% support a "union" with Russia. See the latest polls I posted earlier: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9873739&postcount=820

 

[Ziggurat]

While there certainly are pro-Russia elements in parts of eastern Ukraine, it will not 'fall to Russia' without Russia invading it too.

They will.

 

[spin0]

They will.

Possible, but remains to be seen. ATM Russia seems to have its hands full invading Crimea.

Switching sides doesn't seem to gain wide popular support in Ukrainian military in Crimea: Ukraine navy officers reject plea to defect to Russian-backed Crimea
Navy commander Denis Berezovsky – facing treason charges in Kiev – fails to persuade others to join him in switching sides

"Viktor Yanukovych is the legitimately elected president of Ukraine," he told them, arguing there would be no breach of oath if they served Crimea. "The seizure of power in Kiev was orchestrated from abroad."

When Berezovsky requested questions from the officers, a chorus of criticism broke from the ranks. "In what way exactly did foreign powers intervene in Kiev, compared to the way they are intervening now in Crimea?" asked an officer to applause from those assembled. "Don't ask provocative questions," Berezovsky barked back.

Heh, a very good question.

No exchange of fire has taken place (yet). Ukrainian troops remain in their bases not letting the Russian troops to enter. Russians have declared an ultimatum for Ukrainian bases to surrender, or else...
Russia gives Ukrainian forces in Crimea ultimatum to surrender - Interfax

 

[L.Y.S.]

While there certainly are pro-Russia elements in parts of eastern Ukraine, it will not 'fall to Russia' without Russia invading it too.

Even in the most pro-russia Donetsk region only 33.2% support a "union" with Russia. See the latest polls I posted earlier: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9873739&postcount=820

Yeah, but if 33% of people mobilize themselves and take government buildings it's clear that Eastern Ukraine will fall.

I think Russia will simply hire thugs to take the buildings and stage pro-Russian "revolutions" similar to what happened in Kiev.

Once these coups happen the newly "elected" governors will request Russian military assistance. This has already happened some what in Donetsk.

They will.

Seconded

 

[spin0]

Yeah, but if 33% of people mobilize themselves and take government buildings it's clear that Eastern Ukraine will fall.

Firstly, that 33% was not for Eastern Ukraine. Secondly, it's quite an assumption that 100% of the minority in Eastern Ukraine would support such mobilization and would mobilize.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Firstly, that 33% was not for Eastern Ukraine. Secondly, it's quite an assumption that 100% of the minority in Eastern Ukraine would support such mobilization and would mobilize.

Nah see the link in my previous posts. It's not an assumption. It's pretty real that they are taking government buildings and trying oust local authorities.

 

[spin0]

Nah see the link in my previous posts. It's not an assumption.

It was exactly your assumption. Not 33% of Eastern Ukrainians are pro-russia and of those who are not all would support such steps nor would mobilize.

It's pretty real that they are taking government buildings and trying oust local authorities.

Yep, there has been such events taking place, and those guys are in the minority even in Donetsk never mind in the Eastern Ukraine. And as we agree, only Russian invasion would make those areas to fall to Russia as per the minority opinion.

 

[McHrozni]

I wouldn't call it a word-salad, but standard diplomatic boilerplate. Urging all parties to exercise restraint and solve their differences peacefully. Basically they're saying this doesn't concern us; we're neutral here and not going to antagonize either side.

Hm. Maybe, but then I can make a much more effecient statement which says exactly the same: "Meh". Calling it a word salad gives it undue credence in that case.

McHrozni

 

[crescent]

I think Russia will simply hire thugs to take the buildings and stage pro-Russian "revolutions" similar to what happened in Kiev.

Once these coups happen the newly "elected" governors will request Russian military assistance. This has already happened some what in Donetsk.

That's how I could see it going down, too. I think the Ukrainians would try to resist the entry of Russian ground troops into areas outside Crimea, which could lead to shooting.

I expect the Ukrainian military forces in Crimea to surrender, on land, at least, without violence - they are too out numbered and cut off to do anything other than get killed. I mean, that would galvanize international support against Russia, but that might not mean much if you are one of those poor people on a base surrounded by a pretty overwhelming military force.

I suppose they might try to break out with some of their ships and make for Odessa. But with many of the Naval forces locked out of the bases, I don't know if any of the docked ships have enough crew to go to sea. I don't think the Ukrainians will scuttle the boats they have docked in Crimea, but then again, I would not be shocked if they did.

If this deadline of 5:00 PM local time of Tuesday is as it has been reported, I expect the Russians to jump the gun by an hour or two, to try to catch everyone off guard and scuttle any chance of a last minute deal.

The deadline is probably good. Russian Ukrainians may try to take over some buildings and border checkpoints outside of Crimea today, but I am guessing that not much else will happen until the deadline approaches. This gives people some time to react - the Russian economy is already taking a bit of a hit, it would be nice if Russia's trading partners upped the ante a bit with some meaningful sanctions (but I don't think they actually will, even if they can).

ETA: That deadline is 5:00 AM local time, not PM. Nine hours left for saner heads to prevail.

Double ETA: Then there is this from the BBC live feed:

17:04: The Russian defence ministry has apparently denied reports that Russian forces gave an ultimatum to the Ukrainian troops in Crimea (see 15:58 entry). "This is utter nonsense", a spokesman for the Russian defence ministry told Vedomosti, a Russian broadsheet.