Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[r-j]

r-j is likely nattering on about this
http://glisaclimate.org/media/Cohen_Arctic_Warming_Snow_Cover_EnvironResLett_2012.pdf

Thank you macdoc, that really made my day. I'm not kidding. I posted that my commentary about NH winters came from the science, the evidence. Which is why I talked about that paper a year ago. I explained it was WHY I was talking about the cooling trend for the NH borela winters.

20th March 2013, 09:42 AM

Cold Winters Caused by Warmer Summers, Research Suggests

Jan. 16, 2012 — Scientists have offered up a convincing explanation for the harsh winters recently experienced in the Northern Hemisphere; increasing temperatures and melting ice in the Arctic regions creating more snowfall in the autumn months at lower latitudes.

Their findings may throw light on specific weather incidents such as the extremely harsh Florida winter of 2010 which ended up killing a host of tropical creatures, as well as the chaos-causing snow that fell on the UK in December 2010.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112193430.htm

If the new idea that melting sea ice can lead to colder winters (which is quite possible of course), then we have not only a possible mechanism to explain why winters have not been warming, and another reason to push for solutions to human caused climate change.

The problem is that ignorant people want to use a warm winter as "proof" of global warming, then also say a cold winter is also "proof" of global warming.

This was in the midst of being asked to provide evidence for why I was saying it.Which of course I did.

Published January 13, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters, this new research suggests that the trend of increasingly cold winters over the past two decades

It's right there on the page I quoted and linked to.
Journal Reference:
Judah L Cohen, Jason C Furtado, Mathew A Barlow, Vladimir A Alexeev, Jessica E Cherry. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environmental Research Letters, 2012; 7 (1): 014007 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007

So almost a year later you are starting to catch up.

As for the "more snow", something else I explained was happening, the Rutgers lab shows this clearly.

Maybe in another year you will get close to where I am, but I doubt it.

 

[r-j]

I have replied several times with a climate model that predicts "colder winters"

That isn't what you claimed, nor what I challenged you on.

Put the goal posts back. Or just admit you made it up.

it's no big deal.

You were wrong, are wrong, ad there isn't any way for you to get out of being wrong.

 

[r-j]

Northern Hemisphere winters have not been particularly cold for a long time, so what exactly is "colder winters" referring to?

The exact same thing I was telling you about a year ago.

Warmer summers cause colder winters, scientists say
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/us-climate-winter-idUSTRE80C0A520120113

Of course now I understand why there might be some confusion, since many of the posts I tried to explain it in, vanished from the thread.

But it's right there in the story I linked to.

"For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia.

 

[macdoc]

Additional snow cover is not related to cold weather - more snow is an artifact of more moisture in the atmosphere.
What it does not do is persist as California is experiencing to its peril.

Space images reveal California's vanished snowpack

18:09 25 February 2014

now about that NH winter being colder...last time I checked California was in the NH

Published: January 17, 2014The weather pattern along the West Coast this week is one that was all too common last year and led to a record dry 2013 in California.


High pressure in the upper atmosphere this week.

A dominant ridge, or dome of high pressure aloft, is acting as a block to any precipitation in the Golden State. Not only does this so-called ridge prevent Pacific weather systems from affecting California with rain and snow, it's also leading to offshore winds, record high temperatures and a high fire danger this week.

http://www.newscientist.com/article...k.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|online-news

It's on the flip side of the dipole pattern and getting the warmth - mid west was chilly ....weather patterns ....not global climate.

The Arctic may indeed be moving into a more permanent dipole pattern as the ocean heat increased with bands of cold and warm during the NH winter months.

 

[a_unique_person]

As always, if you have evidence, present it.

It's easy enough to do, might lower your blood pressure as well.

You made the claim. Where is your evidence about NH winters?

 

[Trakar]

r-j is likely nattering on about this



http://glisaclimate.org/media/Cohen_Arctic_Warming_Snow_Cover_EnvironResLett_2012.pdf...

Strong possibility, or possibly a similar follow, but Cohen et al. isn’t talking about Arctic cooling. The paper identifies a trend in some higher latitude forest regions, mainly eastern Canada NE US and northern Eurasia, that are developing winter feedbacks as cooler denser air masses are being displaced over ever-warmer, more moisture laden lower latitude areas, dropping more snow, changing the albedo, cooling the surface when the weather patterns line up for any particular season. Two issues, 1) it is a definably regional issue which is generally easy to understand. 2) Nothing in this contradicts or is mutually exclusive with mainstream modern climate understandings. A general overall warming is the primary principle, how that mean is distributed in its convections around the surface of the planet usually called weather.

 

[Trakar]

You made the claim. Where is your evidence about NH winters?

Street magicians hate you don't they?

 

[Haig]

A good read in this PDF unless you happen to be a warmist

Statement of Patrick Moore, Ph.D.
Before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight February 25, 2014

There is no scientific proof that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are the dominant cause of the minor warming of the Earth’s atmosphere over the past 100 years. If there were such a proof it would be written down for all to see. No actual proof, as it is understood in science, exists.

Coming closer to the present day, there is good historical evidence that it was warmer than it is today during the days of the Roman Empire 2000 years ago and during the Medieval Warming Period 1,000 years ago.322 323 We know that during the Medieval Warming Period, the Norse (Vikings) colonized Iceland, Greenland, and Newfoundland. The settlements in Newfoundland and Greenland were then abandoned during the Little Ice Age that lasted from about 1500 to the early 1800s.324 The Thames River in England froze over regularly during the cold winters of the Little Ice Age. The Thames last froze over in 1814.325 Since then the climate has been in a gradual warming trend. Given that there were very low levels of CO2 emissions from human activity in those times, it is not possible that humans caused the Medieval Warming Period or the Little Ice Age. Natural factors had to be instrumental in those changes in climate.

As of 2013 it has become clear that the global temperature stopped rising 16 years ago, after a 20-year period of increasing temperature. This is despite the fact that CO2 emissions have continued to rise at an increasing rate. No scientist professes to know why global warming has stopped, but many continue to believe humans are driving a “climate catastrophe.” Experts and opinion leaders who have publicly bought into the climate crisis hypothesis are obviously reluctant to change their views. They can’t do so without losing face, having invested their reputations in such a high- profile issue. There is a sense that the true believers have become the real deniers.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/22514hearingwitnesstestimonymoore.pdf

 

[macdoc]

and the heat goes on....in high gear

Climate change: No warming hiatus for extreme hot temperatures
Date:
February 26, 2014
Source:
University of New South Wales
Summary:

While there are claims that there has been a hiatus in global average temperatures, no such hiatus has occurred at the extreme end of the temperature spectrum. New research shows extremely hot temperatures over land have dramatically and unequivocally increased in number and area despite claims that the rise in global average temperatures has slowed over the past 10 to 20 years

more
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140226165305.htm

 

[Trakar]

A good read in this PDF unless you happen to be a warmist

Statement of Patrick Moore, Ph.D.
Before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight February 25, 2014


http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/22514hearingwitnesstestimonymoore.pdf

http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/in...Store_id=415b9cde-e664-4628-8fb5-ae3951197d03

Same loon that said:

If it is the aim of “environmentalists” to stop fossil fuel production and use, end fracking, end coal mining, end the use of oil, then they are promoting a policy that would have disastrous consequences for human civilization and the environment. If we stopped using fossil fuel today, or by 2020 as Al Gore proposes, at least half the human population would perish and there wouldn’t be a tree left on the planet with a year, as people struggled to find enough energy to stay alive.

Read more: http://communities.washingtontimes....cts-and-fiction-climate-change/#ixzz2uVY0diu6

Now there's a rigorously composed and compellingly supported proposal.

 

[macdoc]

how idiotic can one man be

There is no scientific proof that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are the dominant cause of the minor warming of the Earth’s atmosphere over the past 100 years. If there were such a proof it would be written down for all to see. No actual proof, as it is understood in science, exists.

what next Haig, the world is flat, the sun revolves around it and it's 6,000 years old......you are treading in those waters.

 

[Haig]

what next Haig, the world is flat, the sun revolves around it and it's 6,000 years old......you are treading in those waters.

Well macdoc if you read and understood the very next quote from Moore (never mind, for now,the all the other science facts he uses in the pdf) I have to say you seem to be an example of this, as he suggests:-

"There is a sense that the true believers have become the real deniers."

Another quote makes it clear ...

In recent months a number of mainstream media outlets, including many British and American newspapers, have abandoned their strong biases and are now publishing articles that are balanced and even skeptical of human-caused warming. The collapse of the “overwhelming consensus” is good news for everyone who believes this topic should be discussed openly and objectively. There is a breath of fresh air in the climate change debate.

A breath of fresh air indeed!!!

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/22514hearingwitnesstestimonymoore.pdf

 

[macdoc]

Still quoting the disinformation crew paid by Koch I see.
Retired weather presenter is your info source is it???

What "debate" ......the most wishful thinking won't turn fact into a "debate".

Debate all you want what to do about it......

I don't have a problem with Moore on his nuclear his stance. His take on AGW is ludicrous as is your flailing attempts at trying to off load it on the sun.

The "breath of fresh air" is the denier industry losing their funding.

What DO you say Mr. Haig to Mr. Tillison who now acknowledges AGW as both real and a serious risk.....an "engineering problem" to be dealt with - which in the broader sense it is.

Willard Anthony Watts (Anthony Watts) is a blogger, weathercaster and non-scientist, paid AGW denier who runs the website wattsupwiththat.com. He does not have a university qualification and has no climate credentials other than being a radio weather announcer. His website is parodied and debunked at the website wottsupwiththat.com Watts is on the payroll of the Heartland Institute, which itself is funded by polluting industries.[1]

http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Anthony_Watts

Lovely science source you have there Haig.

 

[greybeard]

Well macdoc if you read and understood the very next quote from Moore (never mind, for now,the all the other science facts he uses in the pdf) I have to say you seem to be an example of this, as he suggests:-

"There is a sense that the true believers have become the real deniers."

Another quote makes it clear ...

In recent months a number of mainstream media outlets, including many British and American newspapers, have abandoned their strong biases and are now publishing articles that are balanced and even skeptical of human-caused warming. The collapse of the “overwhelming consensus” is good news for everyone who believes this topic should be discussed openly and objectively. There is a breath of fresh air in the climate change debate.

A breath of fresh air indeed!!!

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/22514hearingwitnesstestimonymoore.pdf

It's only a breath of fresh air Haig if you want to read propaganda rather than science. As you seem to take what you read on wattsupwiththat at face value then it seems that you do.

 

[Haig]

I don't have a problem with Moore on his nuclear his stance. His take on AGW is ludicrous as is your flailing attempts at trying to off load it on the sun.

What science facts Moore quotes do you dispute?

As for the Sun, it's becoming more obvious it's the real climate changer and solar cycle 25 will even make it clearer to ALL, even you.

What DO you say Mr. Haig to Mr. Tillison who now acknowledges AGW as both real and a serious risk.....an "engineering problem" to be dealt with - which in the broader sense it is.

I say playing "God" with the climate is only going to end in tears.

Lovely science source you have there Haig.

A science fact is a fact no mater it's source OR who quotes it.

Deal with it.

S0 News February 25, 2014: Major Flaring, Seismic Watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jx3JH-SNDw4&list=UUTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ&feature=c4-overview

 

[ideogram]

r-j, this seems like a simple misunderstanding. Your claim that "winters are colder" is ambiguous. As I understand it (I'm sure people will correct me if I'm wrong) the Northern Hemisphere winter, overall, is not colder. Certain regions in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes experience colder winters, but the models don't make such detailed predictions.

I've seen you complain about this issue before. There aren't any climate models that can predict what is going to happen in your state this year. That doesn't invalidate predictions that the average temperature of the planet will be higher in 2050. You do understand this, don't you?

BTW I know you guys have a lot of history, but I would like to suggest "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

 

[ideogram]

This is a NH trend, the colder winters, but it is so negative, such a cooling trend, that the winter season has actually brought the entire global mean down, so that we are seeing a global mean trend that is negative.

Do you really have evidence of this?

As always, if you have evidence, present it.

 

[Belz...]

As always, if you have evidence, present it.

If evidence is presented, don't ignore it.

 

[ideogram]

Because there isn't any model that predicted colder winters, as in a trend of colder winters. Certainly they predicted the exact opposite.

I'm not sure what you believe the models predicted. Did you see Trakar's post?

While, as you explain, climate science does predict more extreme weather events during the early phases (the next couple of centuries) of our planet's current climate change episode, literalist extremists will undoubtedly distort such statements. Of course, a warming planet will not produce generally colder winters, though it will create episodes of sporadically colder winter weather events as previously "normal" wind patterns and flows are disrupted. Though it only takes one or two such extreme events during the winter months of a given region to make that winter, in that specific region, seem like a very cold winter, that does not translate to an unqualified "colder winter" for the hemisphere or even necessarily as averaged over the entire timespan of "winter" in a given region. I thought that is what you intended here and was indeed how you clarified your statement when "questioned" about it. Mainstream climate science fully supports and agrees with this understanding.

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf
report discusses such events in detail throughout, below is one example.

 

[UnrepentantSinner]

r-j, this seems like a simple misunderstanding. Your claim that "winters are colder" is ambiguous. As I understand it (I'm sure people will correct me if I'm wrong) the Northern Hemisphere winter, overall, is not colder. Certain regions in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes experience colder winters, but the models don't make such detailed predictions.

Yep. Check out the regional variations vs. nation wide data for the U.S.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Nationaltrank/201401-201401.gif
53 of 120 is ~41% of warmest years (or 59% of coldest).

But broken down by region and state.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Divisionaltrank/201401-201401.gif