Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

Status
Not open for further replies.
I hope she lives her life as fully as possible while dealing with this, instead of letting it consume her.

I would argue that working to graduate shows a lot of credit to her with everything that is landing on her head.

Come at this as a skeptic, I am actually amazed at how good her details actually match what is going on.
 
Charlie I take it you believe extradition or incarceration pending can not happen. You were right in saying she would be reconvicted. I will assume you are forecasting a difficult but favourable outcome for Amanda.

Need to be careful . . . .She could have quiet assurances that she just cannot speak about.
 
My point to Vibio, however, is that Italian authorities are not in any way unique in their obsession with "saving face." It is a syndrome I have seen in many cases, throughout the world.

A certain lawyer, Alfred Denning, addressed the matter explicitly in arguing against a new trial for the Birmingham Six, in the UK:

Just consider the course of events if their action were to proceed to trial ... If the six men failed it would mean that much time and money and worry would have been expended by many people to no good purpose. If they won, it would mean that the police were guilty of perjury; that they were guilty of violence and threats; that the confessions were involuntary and improperly admitted in evidence; and that the convictions were erroneous. ... That was such an appalling vista that every sensible person would say, "It cannot be right that these actions should go any further."

He argued, in effect, not that the men were guilty, but that the justice system should protect itself from an inquiry that shows them to be innocent.

That kind of candor is rare. Denning laid bare the obsessive concern that keeps many innocent people locked up long after the case against them has been discredited.

I am somewhat in the loop on the Angie Dodge case in Idaho. It was a sexual homicide where an intruder killed a girl in her apartment and then stood over her body and masturbated. The DNA in the semen has never been matched to anyone.

Chris Tapp is locked up for this crime. Tapp was a local kid who knew the victim, and he was kind of a dope. A cop worked him over, day after day, for weeks, and finally got him to admit being at the crime scene and to accuse his friend, Ben Hobbs, who was the person the cops really suspected of the murder.

But Hobbs was smarter than Tapp. He didn't incriminate himself, even when the cops told him Tapp had accused him. When the cops finally got a DNA sample from Hobbs, it didn't match the crime scene DNA.

At that point, it should have been obvious that the entire premise of the investigation was just plain wrong. This was a crime committed by one pervert, not a group of guys who were friends of the victim. Good grief. But the cops and the prosecutor could not admit they had wasted months on a wild goose chase, because it would make them look bad.

So, they offered Tapp a deal: tell us the name of the guy who ejaculated, and you can go free. Otherwise, we will use your confession in court and you will go down.

Tapp of course could not take this deal, because he was not involved and had no clue who really did it. So he was tried and convicted on the strength of his "confession," and now he is in prison.

The police detective responsible for this travesty is now the mayor of Idaho Falls.

Carol Dodge, the victim's mother, realizes Tapp is innocent and her daughter's killer has never been brought to justice. She is waging a battle to free Tapp and re-open the investigation. She is a thorn in the side of the local authorities. Last year, someone from the Idaho Falls prosecutor's office stood up in a court hearing and suggested that Carol Dodge, who has been seeking justice for all these many years, might be an accessory to the murder of her daughter in some unspecified way.

Yea, verily, that is what he said.

There we have "saving face" in America. It's no different than what is going on with Amanda and Raffaele.

This one of the endless long stories I could write up and post on JREF... all completely true and relentlessly similar.

Another recurring theme of these cases is police accusing friends and family of the murder victim - what I call "solving the crime the easy way". (Another set of targets are people who help with the discovery of the crime - of course Amanda and Raff filled the bill twice over.)

If you're someone who doesn't believe that the police and courts make mistakes, then it adds to the view that culprits are often someone close to the victim. If, on the other hand, you see what's happening, then it's one of the signs that a miscarriage of justice has occurred.
 
Charlie I take it you believe extradition or incarceration pending can not happen. You were right in saying she would be reconvicted. I will assume you are forecasting a difficult but favourable outcome for Amanda.

She wants to resolve a problem by reaching out to reasonable people and communicating. I see that as a sound approach at this point. She is very active on her own behalf. Look at all the stuff she has put on her website. But there are only so many hours in the day.

Meanwhile, many people have a sustained interest in what happens to her and Raffaele, because we understand that it matters to us as well as them. Their interest is our interest. We care a lot, and there are a lot of us.

So yes, I forecast a difficult but favorable outcome. I have no idea how we'll get there, but I am confident in the outcome.
 
I agree, they really need to get themselves together as it is their lives at stake. They don't seem to be getting any decent advice - and they should have ensured that every point in their books was compatible with each other and accurate with the known records, otherwise it is just sloppy work.

They need to become experts in their own case - and sack the lawyers that won't talk to the BBC. This case has been so played out in the media, the lawyers involved should have a ready made speech to highlight the main points that prove their innocence - in the same way that the prosecution are always ready to give their nonsense guilty points.

It seems on here at least, time of death plays a big part in why people believe they are innocent. Can't Amanda and Raffale get some expert opinion from a gastroenterologist and start hammering this point home?

They really do need to become experts - they are both in a position where they can talk to any media outlet, they need to be able to stress the main points of their innocence - and start making a lot of noise about not testing the semen stain and the lack of electronic data files and that the pathologist did NOT say that there had to be more than one attacker. They need to be able to quote the experts.

It is likely that they are both very traumatized. What you see them doing in their posts and occasional interviews may be the limit of what they can handle.

A side note: Assume that the PLE is still intercepting all of the Sollecito and Knox communications they can possibly monitor. This includes family and defense attorneys. There is too much at stake for the PLE to let it go.
 
I'd settle for just a time. A single sentence naming the probable time of Meredith's death.

Anybody?

Here's the chart with verifiable timepoints again.

View attachment 30335

Meredith was a healthy young woman who had just shared a normal meal with her friends. All of that meal was still in her stomach when she died.

As a point of reference, here's the definition of a serious digestive disorder called gastroparesis. It involves partial paralysis of the stomach muscles, and it has a variety of causes, including diabetes, MS, and Parkinson's.


source: National Institutes of Health

Meredith didn't have gastroparesis. She didn't suffer from any of the most common symptoms (The most common symptoms of gastroparesis are nausea, a feeling of fullness after eating only a small amount of food, and vomiting undigested food—sometimes several hours after a meal.)

So there it is. She started a meal around 6 pm. When she died, all of it was still in her stomach. She was murdered very soon after she let herself into the villa at about 9 pm. Convince me otherwise.


More excellence. What the hell were the defence doing for their money? (Where have I said that before?)

Rolfe.
 
It is likely that they are both very traumatized. What you see them doing in their posts and occasional interviews may be the limit of what they can handle.

You're right, I don't know how either of them are managing to cope with the hatred and scrutiny of their every utterance, which makes it even more important for their legal team to competent
 
She wants to resolve a problem by reaching out to reasonable people and communicating. I see that as a sound approach at this point. She is very active on her own behalf. Look at all the stuff she has put on her website. But there are only so many hours in the day.

Meanwhile, many people have a sustained interest in what happens to her and Raffaele, because we understand that it matters to us as well as them. Their interest is our interest. We care a lot, and there are a lot of us.

So yes, I forecast a difficult but favorable outcome. I have no idea how we'll get there, but I am confident in the outcome.
I am beginning to understand these processes. I referred previously to Teina Pora, who has done 20 years to date for a crime he did not commit. He falsely confessed before a serial rapist who always acted alone was convicted with dna evidence for the rape and murder. An investigative reporter has persevered to the point at which Pora has been accorded a British Privy council hearing. It is pretty certain he will be released immediately and retried, and found not guilty. Our justice minister says this shows the process works. Utter despicable baloney. Statistically there should be 75 cases like this in the US for every one here, so I am beginning to understand.
 
Flounced off in a huff because she realised she wasn't on the winning side here, as far as I can make out. Voluntarily deregistered and showed up on PMF as a full-fledged guilter. There are discussions earlier in one of the threads about the incident, and how someone who seemed to be intelligent and evidence-led could find themselves in that position.

She showed up on Wings just a few days ago. Fiona is a very common name of course but she has stylistic quirks in her writing which I recognised, so I asked her straight out and she confirmed she was the same person. I don't think we get on.

It's a shame really because we're definitely on the same side apart from this particular case, but her behaviour in this thread caused me to lose all respect for her. In fact when I first saw the cartwheel thread I was inclined to believe Knox and Sollecito were guilty simply because Skeptic Ginger was for innocence and Fiona was for guilt! However, as I became familiar with the evidence I realised that following precedent wasn't working out in this case.

Rolfe.
 
She hypothesised on her blog that the lamp was probably borrowed by Meredith. Silly girl. She has not read my article and as a consequence neither she nor her team properly got to grips with that point, albeit the only harm that came from it was in the internet (assuming there were no 'hidden' findings in Massei) where people who don't properly understand the principles think the photographs prove the lamp was already in the room.


Haven't we talked about this already? My analysis and reconstruction of the photos showed that the lamp was likely broken where it was lying behind the door. I recently found this theory is confirmed by police testimony that the lamp was smashed. there is no reason for the lamp to be smashed if it was brought into the room after the door was kicked open. My theory that the lamp was borrowed by Meredith in the prior week while Amanda was spending nights at Raffaele's makes the most sense. The lamp then falling from the table during the struggle and then being smashed against the wall when the door is kicked open would account for the condition in which it was found.
 
Haven't we talked about this already? My analysis and reconstruction of the photos showed that the lamp was likely broken where it was lying behind the door. I recently found this theory is confirmed by police testimony that the lamp was smashed. there is no reason for the lamp to be smashed if it was brought into the room after the door was kicked open. My theory that the lamp was borrowed by Meredith in the prior week while Amanda was spending nights at Raffaele's makes the most sense. The lamp then falling from the table during the struggle and then being smashed against the wall when the door is kicked open would account for the condition in which it was found.

Can you reference this testimony please Dan? First I've heard of it and I have seen no clear pictures showing damage to it. If the lamp really was smashed then so is my lamp theory. Therefore, it cannot have been smashed.

But, say it was, then why did the dopes not take prints off the plug? Or off the plug that was unplugged so the lamp could be plugged in?

ETA on further reflection, I am going to want to see an evidence marker for the lamp, clear photographic evidence of this damage you say it sustained and a reason why no forensic tests were carried out on it (or the results of any such tests). Otherwise, this is just more glass on top of clothes as far as I'm concerned.
 
Last edited:
Flounced off in a huff because she realised she wasn't on the winning side here, as far as I can make out. Voluntarily deregistered and showed up on PMF as a full-fledged guilter. There are discussions earlier in one of the threads about the incident, and how someone who seemed to be intelligent and evidence-led could find themselves in that position.


She wasn't in control of her own position. To stay on JREF would have meant acknowledging the facts and that would lead to a belief in innocence. Such a belief would cause serious conflict in her personal life. She chose instead to move to the dark side. This was indeed a loss for the skeptics.
 
I sense a 'too many cooks' problem in her camp, with offers of advice and help coming in from many quarters, not all of them sound. What she needs is a small, well-chosen, tightly-knit and trusted team and a firewall enclosing her and them so she can focus. The one key area of that focus, with an eye on the ECHR and extradition as well, should be the period 02-06 November 2007.

***

ETA and why has she said on three separate occasions that I have been able to identify that the cops showed her Patrick's message? I would want an expert view on whether the Sim would still tell us when that message was deleted and then I would request access to it for examination. Well, if I had a time machine I would. It's too *********** late now.

I think, when we make these observations, that we also need to be careful to understand that there were some constraints on the defense that made this case very difficult. Just off the top of my head:

1. Jail/Wiretapping: The client was in jail from day one through the acquittal. Her conversations were wiretapped and her work product was monitored. As far as I can tell, there was no luxury to sit in a "war room" all day, reviewing materials and going over the finer points. No doubt, the prosecution did do this. Amanda probably had to be content to entrust her defense to her lawyers and experts, some of whom no doubt understand points that she does not, e.g., Sara Gino knows what EDFs are.

2. Goalpost-Shifting: The prosecution (from the safety of their war room) kept leaking, shifting theories and changing facts. Every time this happened, the defense had to adjust, and I'm sure this made for a disjointed approach and incomplete understanding of what we now know to be the important issues.

3. Budget: Let's be realistic. After 6 years, this is an ongoing legal case. The defense has had to hire experts and I am sure pay astronomical expert fees. Means are not unlimited, and the work of the defense attorneys and experts, I'm sure, has to be strategically limited.

4. Transparency: The prosecution has not be forthcoming with all of the information that could aid the defense. You pointed out about the early monitoring of Lumumba, and I make the point about missing egrams. When something that should be produced is instead withheld, it is sometimes very difficult to see, in the fog of war, what the missing items are. I think that it is the case here, that with hindsight and time to study, we know of some things that the prosecution has withheld, but with everything else going on, I doubt that they could have been readily identified mid-trial.

Don't get me wrong, I think that some actions of the defense can be criticized, but I also think that all of the above probably rise to a massive Equality of Arms violation under ECHR Art. 6.
 
She wasn't in control of her own position. To stay on JREF would have meant acknowledging the facts and that would lead to a belief in innocence. Such a belief would cause serious conflict in her personal life. She chose instead to move to the dark side. This was indeed a loss for the skeptics.


She's not on Wings all the time but she has posted quite a few times in the past few days. It's often about finance and currency matters. Some light-hearted posts can be very funny, too. However, although her serious posts seem to me to make sense and are in accord with what experts like Ivan McKie say, I hit this credibility roadblock with her. How can I possibly take anything she says seriously, when she has shown herself to be utterly irrational and completely incapable of taking evidence on board?

Rolfe.
 
She wasn't in control of her own position. To stay on JREF would have meant acknowledging the facts and that would lead to a belief in innocence. Such a belief would cause serious conflict in her personal life. She chose instead to move to the dark side. This was indeed a loss for the skeptics.

Joined a skeptics forum but then took her ball and went home, eh? LOL.
 
Can you reference this testimony please Dan? First I've heard of it and I have seen no clear pictures showing damage to it. If the lamp really was smashed then so is my lamp theory. Therefore, it cannot have been smashed.

But, say it was, then why did the dopes not take prints off the plug? Or off the plug that was unplugged so the lamp could be plugged in?

ETA on further reflection, I am going to want to see an evidence marker for the lamp, clear photographic evidence of this damage you say it sustained and a reason why no forensic tests were carried out on it (or the results of any such tests). Otherwise, this is just more glass on top of clothes as far as I'm concerned.


I did a 3D reconstruction of the lamp behind the door. It clearly showed that the neck was broken just below the head from how it moves between pictures.

picture.php


I recall it was Rita's testimony talking about the lamp which was moved to the desk by the time of the December visit. I'll see if I can find it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom