Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[RandyN]

I spent all day yesterday with Amanda and her friends and family.

She is a warm, sweet-natured person and a delight to be around. She runs with a small circle of intelligent, likable friends with productive lives. She has solid career prospects waiting for her when she graduates this year, because of the excellent impression she had made on people who have worked with her.

People who know her well - her peers, her family, older adults - think highly of her. Your analysis will not change that, and it will not change who she really is.

Yes, but how did she smell? It is time to address the skunkazz rumors.

 

[MDDVS]

Machiavelli, I see lots of opinion in your post and not enough data. I asked for data, but I see you cannot provide it.

Why do you stop at the 90 percentile? We're well aware that the probability for amptying before 4 hours is very close to 100 %.

The caveats you mention do not apply in this case, in particular the one related to the knowledge of the time when the last meal started (we know that in this case). Also there's no proof of any prank, no proff of any sex game, and proof of an extended period of stress.

I'm sorry, but that concept of a "non-continuous" meal does not make any sense. All our meals are part of a gigantic "non-continous" meal spanning all our lives, so by your logic diggestion would never start. I mean, how is your body supposed to guess if you are going to eat more or not?

Also, unreasonable is to let "logic" form your opinions without the empirical input. Do you have any evidence for your claim that the length of meal influences the start of stomach emptying?

I'd like to see evidence on your theory regarding the diggestion of "improperly baked bread".

Sorry, but the defendants do have an alibi until at least 21:26. I know you consider all evidence introduced by defense worthless, but not all people do.

Can you present any piece of evidence showing the gastric empyting of an healthy adult starting 4 hours after a meal?

 

[Desert Fox]

I also want to add: that I am uttely not interested in "who she really is". It also point out that it would be quite difficult to remove the publicly visible behaviours that she had, both her writing and her interviews, and would be impossible to help my perception about them. One point that needs to be clear: when I talk about Amanda Knox's personality in relation to the crime, I mean the 20yo Amanda Knox, not the 27 yo one. I have actually no doubt that the 27 yo version is psychologically better equipped and more socially capable than the 20yo Amanda Knox and sure much different on some key aspects. But this doesn't change what she was, and also doesn't change some (to me obvious) key aspects of her personality.

If that was truly the case, you would at worst see reasonable doubt and at best innocence from the simple physical evidence.

It is pretty well supported that Cameron Todd Willingham beat his wife but there was no evidence (that stands up to scrutiny) that he killed his children in a fire. He might not have been a very nice guy but does not matter if he did not commit the crime.

 

[Bill Williams]

Since you insist, I'll try to be very quick.
Follow me.

a. The stomach content argument is a defense argument, which is brought up as evidence - as a certain element of counter-evidence - against an already esptablished set of incriminating evidence. Therefore, it should have a very high quality, a very high standard; it needs to be basically "certain" in order to work.

b. About this argument, there are two big problems:
1. the inference is intrinsically imprecise, for multiple reasons. Yes, it is true that in 90% of cases or more stomach empties within 2-2.5 hours, however this is not the totality of cases, and there have been mistakes assessing TOD of up to 12 hours based on stomach contents. This is because the datum suffers of multiple uncertainities, both about the person conditions and about circumstances, and - not irrelevant - even about a true knowledge about time of last meal.
For example, digestion may well be blocked for negative incidental factors. For example, a condition of stress or fear (like a roommate organizing a prank or any other disturbing circumstance like people argueing or smoking or having a threesome in the dining room). It can also suffer a block because of improperly baked house-made bread.

Also, the same datum suffers uncertainty about the time at which Meredith actually ate. Because what we have defined in papers is a non-continuous meal starting around 18.30 and finished at about 20.00. The slogan put forward, that as for digestion time the only thing that matters is the time of the first bite, is quite nothing more than that, a slogan. There is no scientific proof that the fact that you go on eating for an hour and a half, this won't delay the emptying of the stomach. Are you sure the ingestion of further food doesn't delay the start of emptying? I'm not sure, actuall nobody is sure about that, and it would be unreasonable to assume that the lenght of the meal does not influence the delay of stomach emptying.
In adition to that, we must say that there is actually no information not even about when Meredith actually gave the "first bite", because some of the English girls remember more or less - very imprecisely and based on inference - about the approximate time when the first entry (pizza) was ready, but all three were doing othr things meanwhile (watching photos etc.) and nodbody knows the actual time when Meredith even begun to ate.

2. a second problem, beyond the intrinsic imprecision of the datum, is its lack of relevance. The problem is, that the TOD itself is irrelevant. It may be relevant as for Curatolo's credibility in terms of his seeing the right people, some may deduce. But as for the rest of the evidence, there are ample time frames both later than 22.30 as well as earlier (and again, I stress the concept that time of death is not the same thing of the beginning of the aggression, and beginnning of aggression may not be the same time of the time of beginning of the "situation" that lead to the aggression: even the "earliest" non-fatal but just stressfull event might cause emotion and stersss causeing a digestive delay).
The poin is that TOD is an irrelevant element itself, because the defenadants have no alibi beyond 20.40. It makes no difference actully, when they killed her, and it may nt be possible to know with certainity when this happened.

In conclusion, for the set of above said reasons, stomach content is not a piece of evidence capable to overturn the evidence set and is basically irrelevant.

This is the best you can do?

You say that, "Yes, it is true that in 90% of cases or more stomach empties within 2-2.5 hours". Ok.... let's agree that's true.

You then go on to describe all the issues which may, repeat only may, describe the other 10% of cases, again using nothing at all which describes this case as circumstances - but then again, if they ARE the circumstances, it's still, by your own admission, a 90% to 10% proposition that poor Meredtih, based on stomach contents, was gone by 9:30.

Think on that. Even you admit there's a 90% chance she was gone by 9:30 based solely on stomach contents,

And in accepting that there's only a 10% chance this might not be true, you're engaging in a 6 year campaign to put Sollecito and Knox in jail?

I will not use the word I had reserved for you, sir, because it would not survive moderation.

It's no wonder why you never attempt a comprehensive theory of this crime.

 

[Caper]

But I'm not the person who fails to see the picture, methinks.
Let's leave aside the TOD question for a moment (one interesting point, to me, is that the TOD happens to be distinctively a defence point in this case, and it also happens to be both uncertain and not relevant in the set of evidence, imho).

But it's always there. Its what makes the case so patently absurd.... amongst other things of course.

Talk about the evidence set. To me this is exactly the problem of the innocentisti. They just miss the olistic view, the osmotic view of how evidence works.

I'm just commenting on this because I really like the term innocentisti.

Sometimes they object pieces of evidence on grotesque and surreal grounds, like when they beliee that Knox's false accusation was coerced and don't see anything wrong in her hand written notes and in her contradictions.

Ok... this is where I think you are completely off the rails. To me other then the TOD, there is no greater case for her innocence. Of course she was pressured Mach.... of course she was. This is where you have just such a complete misunderstanding about what goes on in interrogation rooms.

Why do you think they don't have a video tape of their interrogations? And don't give me that ******** run around about budgets or they were not legally obligated. They didn't tape them because they knew what they were going to do her.... and we know they played dirty in the interrogation rooms.... St. Patrick said they did.

ANYTIME you mention anything that came out of those interrogation rooms... it's junk in my mind. Contradictions... lies.... it really doesn't matter what she said..... you keep babbling on about it.... but we have every reason to believe it's complete and utter junk.

EDUCATE YOURSELF
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/the-confessions/

But even when they have a point in saying one piece of evidence has soemhow an incomplete and not conclusive nature, for example when they claim that there is no absolute evidence that the break in was staged, in all those events, they al still wrong.

What do you mean no "absolute evidence"? I can't possibly see how one could prove a staged break in either way. If there was say a video of AK and RS murdering Meredith, then yeah... I guess if someone said the break in looked staged I'd believe them. What I do know is this. Where RS and AK were and the TOD does not jive for a quicky rape with an African drifter they didn't know.... and then lets stage a break in... In fact nothing in reality jives with 2 people just meeting up with a petty thief to go rape and kill a roomate for no reason.

The innocentisti don't have an alternative substance nor an alternative explanation for luminol footprint.

No Mach. You get a great one..

There is no explanation for how Sollecito's DNA happaned to be on the bra clasp.

WHAT!!! Are you insane? Of course there is. DNA travels... it gets blown around.... if a piece of material is sitting on the ground for weeks on end... then it is perfectly reasonable the RS DNA gets on it.

Especially when the alternative is to believe the stupidest murder scenario in the history of stupid murder scenarios (actually that isn't true. The Norfolk Four holds that dubious distinction.)

So do you understand that Mach? You have to believe one of a few scenarios.

1) RS DNA was in the house and took some path to the bra clasp. Makes since he was in the house.... and also MACH... guess what? There were other males DNA on the same clasp.... did you take that in Mach?
2) His DNA was planted by a crooked judicial system that was desperate to link RS to the crime. This makes sense to me as well.... They needed to link him some how.
or
3) The 2nd stupidest murder theory I have ever heard in my life. AK and RS, who don't know RG... have never called RG, have never interacted online with RG.... no texts... no facebook... no skype.... no phone calls after the murder....nothing......met up with him... apparently out of the blue and arranged this contact either via personal mail or carrier pigeon.... who knows... and decided that they were all going to rape and kill AK's roomate.... after which I guess RG took a victory dump.


Why on gods green earth would I believe option 3.... or any variation of option 3... it is absurd... insane. How can you possibly not see that?



Mach. RG did this. He did this alone. He was a criminal.... he was half nuts... In fact for the first time tonight I read on the wiki page that..

According to Burleigh, the young men who lived in the downstairs flat at Via della Pergola 7, were unable to recall how Guede had met them, but did recall how, after his first visit to their home, they had found him later in the bathroom, sitting asleep on the unflushed toilet, which was full of faeces.

... that's insane Mach... that a killer... it's a lone killer.

Edited by Loss Leader: 

Edited for Rule 10. Do not partially mask swear words. Do not attempt to defeat the autocensor.

 

[RoseMontague]

This is the best you can do?

You say that, "Yes, it is true that in 90% of cases or more stomach empties within 2-2.5 hours". Ok.... let's agree that's true.

You then go on to describe all the issues which may, repeat only may, describe the other 10% of cases, again using nothing at all which describes this case as circumstances - but then again, if they ARE the circumstances, it's still, by your own admission, a 90% to 10% proposition that poor Meredtih, based on stomach contents, was gone by 9:30.

Think on that. Even you admit there's a 90% chance she was gone by 9:30 based solely on stomach contents,

And in accepting that there's only a 10% chance this might not be true, you're engaging in a 6 year campaign to put Sollecito and Knox in jail?

I will not use the word I had reserved for you, sir, because it would not survive moderation.

It's no wonder why you never attempt a comprehensive theory of this crime. You're a lunatic.

First we have several witnesses giving us a good idea of the time. None of them said Meredith did not eat when the rest of them did. If I have somebody over for dinner things like that would be noticed. The 10% of the cases he is talking about is when the start of the last meal is not known and the house baked bread is his pet theory that he somehow expects people to believe.

The rest of it is just more pure nonsense. People here with far more expertise than he has on this matter have shown it is pure nonsense. He doesn't know it because he doesn't want to know it. That would burst his fantasy.

 

[Desert Fox]

Casper:
I think that last item might only indicate homeless. Sometimes homeless people will hide in public bathrooms overnight.

 

[Bill Williams]

Here's a 2010 article about TOD... it claims that the reason why stomach contents is reliable in this case, is that so many of the variables are known.

It also goes into the other issues why TOD is probably no later than 9:30 pm.

http://voices.yahoo.com/time-death-crucial-issue-amanda-knox-raffaele-7230662.html

Apparently this piece is based on what the defence provided at the Hellmann trial. Has anyone, ISC or Nencini, debunked this?

Meredith's meal with friends began around 6:00 p.m. in the evening. She arrived home slightly before 9:00 p.m. That makes three known hours without the stomach contents yet emptying. This makes Meredith's T.O.D. very probably to be between 9-9:30 p.m. with 10:00 p.m. being at the far end. The (furst) court's T.O.D. of 11:30 p.m. would mean the stomach had not passed contents into the duodenum 5.5 hours after the start of Meredith's meal at 6:00 p.m., which is completely beyond a reasonable timeframe.

Meredith's cell phone calls at or around 9 pm lead to thinking that it was done by her attacker, as well as her departure from usual activities:

Meredith Kercher typically sent a large number of text messages each day, but sent no texts, emails or placed any calls on the night of the murder. The appeals argue that this lack of normal phone activity is a strong indicator that Meredith was attacked shortly after she arrived home for the evening, around 9 p.m. At 8:56 p.m. Meredith attempted to call her mother and the call didn't connect. The appeals contend that it was extremely unusual for her not to try again. Meredith was concerned for her ill mother and usually called her parents before going to bed.

 

[MDDVS]

Machiavelli, the truth is quite simple but now I inderstand that you simply cannot see it.

You are letting your a priori conclusions lead your conclusions instead of letting evidence weight in and take wherever it leads you to.

I hope you'll be able to realise this someday, although I know that it must be really hard for you to change your opinion.

But please consider why me, and many other people who came late to this discussion concluded that Aanda and Rafaelle are innocent. I know you think we are racists and dumb but I can tell you you're wrong.Not all of us are evil and/or gullible. It's just that the evidence doesn't tell us that they are guilty.

And yes, I have enough knowledge of small town police and legal professionals to know what we are dealing with here. You tried to claim that they are special and better somehow in Peruggia but I'm convinced their actions confirmed my (admittedly) starting bias.

Also, this last trial was a joke. Only a few pieces of evidence were introduced, all favorable to the defendants, and the result is a conviction and an increase in their sentences? Doesn't make sense, and I doubt the judges even read all the documents.

 

[Caper]

Just a question about RG. Where did he live at the time if MK's death?

 

[Grinder]

Since you insist, I'll try to be very quick.
Follow me.

a. The stomach content argument is a defense argument, which is brought up as evidence - as a certain element of counter-evidence - against an already esptablished set of incriminating evidence. Therefore, it should have a very high quality, a very high standard; it needs to be basically "certain" in order to work.

The entire argument needs to be a prosecution argument proving beyond a reasonable doubt that something happened, in this case murder.

The defense need not have some extra need of "very high quality" certainly less quality than the prosecution needs. The prosecution meeds to be "certain" in order to work. That is why DNA, fingerprints and other evidence needs to match and be handled in a way that contamination can't have happened.

Prosecution = beyond a reasonable doubt.

Defense = demonstrate doubt.

b. About this argument, there are two big problems:

1. the inference is intrinsically imprecise, for multiple reasons. Yes, it is true that in 90% of cases or more stomach empties within 2-2.5 hours, however this is not the totality of cases, and there have been mistakes assessing TOD of up to 12 hours based on stomach contents. This is because the datum suffers of multiple uncertainities, both about the person conditions and about circumstances, and - not irrelevant - even about a true knowledge about time of last meal.

The l;ast meal is known both in time and contents. There has never been a case that you can show where the start of digestion didn't START withing 5 hours. There are no circumstances before 9 pm, three hours after the meal, that would impact digestion.

For example, digestion may well be blocked for negative incidental factors. For example, a condition of stress or fear (like a roommate organizing a prank or any other disturbing circumstance like people argueing or smoking or having a threesome in the dining room). It can also suffer a block because of improperly baked house-made bread.

Ha ha - bread again. How late could the murderr have occurred according to pizza science.

Also, the same datum suffers uncertainty about the time at which Meredith actually ate. Because what we have defined in papers is a non-continuous meal starting around 18.30 and finished at about 20.00.

No the girls said 6pm maybe earlier.

The slogan put forward, that as for digestion time the only thing that matters is the time of the first bite, is quite nothing more than that, a slogan.

No one said the only thing. The issue the prosecution must show is that there were reasonable circumstances that could delay digestion beyond 4 hours. Btw, the prank wasn't a theory.

There is no scientific proof that the fact that you go on eating for an hour and a half, this won't delay the emptying of the stomach. Are you sure the ingestion of further food doesn't delay the start of emptying? I'm not sure, actuall nobody is sure about that, and it would be unreasonable to assume that the lenght of the meal does not influence the delay of stomach emptying.

Why don't you give us some science on this? The meal wasn't continuous, rather they ate a pizza and then later baked the apple crisp. I believe a couple of hours later.

In adition to that, we must say that there is actually no information not even about when Meredith actually gave the "first bite", because some of the English girls remember more or less - very imprecisely and based on inference - about the approximate time when the first entry (pizza) was ready, but all three were doing othr things meanwhile (watching photos etc.) and nodbody knows the actual time when Meredith even begun to ate.

But people like Curatolo, Nara and Quintavalle should be believed?

They have alibi until about 9:30. TOD has no relevance. Is that why they didn't take her temperature until midnight and didn't weigh her?

 

[Grinder]

Just a question about RG. Where did he live at the time if MK's death?

Near Raf's flat

 

[RandyN]

Machiavelli,

If she really had deposited the controls, then where are they? Dr. Hampikian surely understands their importance. Many people who have taken an interest in the case and asked for material from the defense also understand their importance. Anyone who asks us to believe that the negative controls were deposited is implying that both defense teams somehow overlooked them. Does that make the slightest sense?

If Stefanoni really did deposit them, then in what form were they? The most useful form would be as electronic data files, not final egrams. Even if Stefanoni did deposit them as egrams but not as EDFs, then she disregarded the near universal standards regarding DNA profiling.

Lets not forget the little (two actually) instances when Comodi and Stefanoni were caught trying to sneak fake control data sheets into the trial records. The first time a citizen judge (juror) caught the errant sheets buried in the days files. Hellmann stopped the trial and gave the prosecution some amount of time to produce the correct sheets if they were in the case files already as they claimed. The prosecution failed to find and produce these data sheets.

Later in an end run Comodi tried once again to introduce another set of incorrect control data sheets which IIRC she claimed to have found in a garage somewhere, but Hellmann would have none of it. She got a tongue lashing...but nothing more.

In a normal court if a judge came up against this suspect behavior from a prosecutor or witnesses I suspect all hell would be raised and abusers would be fined, put into jail and have professional licenses put up to question.

Comodi simply went outside...fired up a cigarette and complained to Nick Pisa that the case was lost because the judge was favoring the defense. To which he quoted her somewhere in one of his less than Pulitzer quality pieces IIRC.

So not only did they not produce control data but they were caught attempting to introduce some sort of forged or incorrect data....which takes this to a whole other level than simply withholding data would have it at. This information has to be in the case files or transcripts and should be easily verifiable.

I recall Hellmann admonishing Comodi the second time about the fact that any control data she now produced could never disprove contamination before the testing actually took place...or something along those lines.

Pretty sure Frank wrote about this in the now banned Perugia Shock.

 

[MDDVS]

It doesn't matter if the luminol hits are blood or not because the scientific police probably tracked blood around the house since one of them can be seen in a picture stepping on a pool of blood. Also, you would have to prove it is Merediyth's blood to connect it with the crime anyway, which wasn't done. I mean, I had a nosebleed a few months ago, I'm sure you could find blood in my house if you really looked for it.

But if you want to claim that is blood you must prove it first.

 

[Strozzi]

Machiavelli, you raised a few posts above the issue of the bra clasp. I would like to ask a few very basic questions about the bra clasp.

Is it true that Dr. Stefanoni, after testing the bra clasp, stored the bra clasp in liquid?
If so, why did she do it that way?
Is it true that the metal hooks are now rusted and cannot be further tested for DNA?

Thank you in advance for considering my questions on this.

 

[Machiavelli]

(...)
Raffaele and Amanda are innocent and all your lectures and arguments are a worthless waste of time.

My intent is not to be rude, but I am stunned by how just devoid of any argument your comments often are. I'd say they often appear as mere invectives. A sterile "you are wrong" or "tis is dat" with a two line rethorical emballishment.
Btw: you "believe" Spezi, but you apparently did not gather information about the case agaisnt him yet.
To this, my only comment is I agree that all lectures and information given to you would be uselsess; the entire procedure code would be useless, I'm afraid lectures by any professor would be a worthless waste of time.

I am not interested in who Amanda Knox "really is" and rightly so, because "who" she "is" has no relevance in relation with facts about the case, and this is something obvious to any rational person. (however, still Knox is the person who appears, not the person the pro-Knox advocates describe).

But you, are not interested in basically anything at all. You "believe" Spezi, and you don't search for documentation or independent information about his case. You "believed" (or you believe?) Sfarzo. You made a mistake when you said the half-luminol print was the only or useful footprint attributed to Amanda, and your "reasoning" (or lack thereof) depends on a small toe, which in your logic overturns the whole evidence.

 

[RoseMontague]

Lets not forget the little (two actually) instances when Comodi and Stefanoni were caught trying to sneak fake control data sheets into the trial records. The first time a citizen judge (juror) caught the errant sheets buried in the days files. Hellmann stopped the trial and gave the prosecution some amount of time to produce the correct sheets if they were in the case files already as they claimed. The prosecution failed to find and produce these data sheets.

Later in an end run Comodi tried once again to introduce another set of incorrect control data sheets which IIRC she claimed to have found in a garage somewhere, but Hellmann would have none of it. She got a tongue lashing...but nothing more.

In a normal court if a judge came up against this suspect behavior from a prosecutor or witnesses I suspect all hell would be raised and abusers would be fined, put into jail and have professional licenses put up to question.

Comodi simply went outside...fired up a cigarette and complained to Nick Pisa that the case was lost because the judge was favoring the defense. To which he quoted her somewhere in one of his less than Pulitzer quality pieces IIRC.

So not only did they not produce control data but they were caught attempting to introduce some sort of forged or incorrect data....which takes this to a whole other level than simply withholding data would have it at. This information has to be in the case files or transcripts and should be easily verifiable.

I recall Hellmann admonishing Comodi the second time about the fact that any control data she now produced could never disprove contamination before the testing actually took place...or something along those lines.

Pretty sure Frank wrote about this in the now banned Perugia Shock.

The interesting thing about this from the testimony we now have is that C&V asked Stefanoni twice for the control data before they had completed their report and as of the morning of their testimony had still not received it. This was not exactly sprung on her as a surprise. She knew they wanted it beforehand and did not give it to them.

 

[RandyN]

It doesn't matter if the luminol hits are blood or not because the scientific police probably tracked blood around the house since one of them can be seen in a picture stepping on a pool of blood. Also, you would have to prove it is Merediyth's blood to connect it with the crime anyway, which wasn't done. I mean, I had a nosebleed a few months ago, I'm sure you could find blood in my house if you really looked for it.

But if you want to claim that is blood you must prove it first.

It may not matter but the fact remains that two tests were applied to these samples and the conclusion was that they were not from blood. If the investigator still suspected blood then she had a duty to do more testing. She did not! And from that decision we can conclude that she was convinced that these prints were not from blood.

The fact that most samples contained no DNA indicates them to be not from blood as well.

But sure after hundereds of police tramping about for days and weeks it would be silly to test for bloody footprints anyway. I am a little surprised the whole place didnt light up with that greenish blue glow honestly.

 

[Sonia]

Just a question about RG. Where did he live at the time if MK's death?

From what I remember, his adopted mother, even though her family had kicked him out for trouble-making and lying to them, had provided a personal reference so that Rudy could rent an apartment in Perugia. However, she did not pay the rent for him. The rent was due, and Rudy had no legal way to pay.

 

[Machiavelli]

Machiavelli, you raised a few posts above the issue of the bra clasp. I would like to ask a few very basic questions about the bra clasp.

Is it true that Dr. Stefanoni, after testing the bra clasp, stored the bra clasp in liquid?

No, she stored it in a dry test tube, but the fabric was still wet and the moisture inside the tube caused the rusting.

If so, why did she do it that way?

She explained this in her testimony, saying that for practical reasons they don't have and space for drying items after testing.

Is it true that the metal hooks are now rusted and cannot be further tested for DNA?

Yes, the bra clasp is destroyed.
But there is something important I need to point out: actually, that one should have been a "non-repeateble" test. This is very important, in fact it's still a quite lucky circumstance that Stefanoni used to store the items. Because the Carabinieri, on several casese, they follow a procedure of destroying the items right away after testing.