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[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Good Morning, again, Mr. Savage!

Sorry this took so long--one of my photo sharing sites is having some issues.

[qimg]http://i1184.photobucket.com/albums/z323/slowvehicle/venn1-1.jpg[/qimg]

Here is a correctly-constructed A/~A pair. Notice that the union of A and ~A includes everything-there-is; A is defined; ~A is "everything else" (everything that is not A).

[qimg]http://i1184.photobucket.com/albums/z323/slowvehicle/venn2-1.jpg[/qimg]

Here is an incorrectly defined A/~A pair (a false dichotomy) Notice that the union of A and ~A does NOT include everything-there-is; A is defined, and ~A is defined; ~(A U ~A) is "everything else" (everything that is not A-and-~A). There are possibilities that exist outside the union of A and ~A, making the A/~A pair incomplete.

Does that help?
Slowvehicle,
- Maybe... It made me realize that my Venn Diagram experience never included complements (or at least, not that I can remember)... But, don't hold your breath -- as you know, I'm not easy.
- I'll be back.
 
- Maybe... It made me realize that my Venn Diagram experience never included complements (or at least, not that I can remember)...


Did it make you realize that Slowvehicle's statement that "If your A is "My existence if finite and singular", the only inclusive complement is "~[my existence is finite and singular]"" is correct?
 
Slowvehicle,
- Maybe... It made me realize that my Venn Diagram experience never included complements (or at least, not that I can remember)... But, don't hold your breath -- as you know, I'm not easy.
- I'll be back.

Good Afternoon, Mr. Savage!

I am sorry to have committed one of the cardinal sins of teaching--that is, assuming too much background on the part of the class.

A Venn Diagram is a very simple way of representing set theory, with but a few assumptions.

The first is that the diagram itself represents every possibility; that is, the (usually rectangular) border of the diagram represents the set of everything (the "universal set").

A bordered area represents a specific set. In the first diagram, the blue ellipse is set A, the set of all conditions that satisfy premise A.

By definition, then, all of the rest of the universal set is the complement of A, that is, ~A; anything and everything that is not a member of A is a member of ~A.

Now, look at the second diagram.

The blue ellipse still represents A. The yellow ellipse represents a set named (incorrectly) "~A". The set has been defined as a set of characteristics; a set of things that satisfies a given definition. How can you tell that the set (incorrectly) named "~A" is not the complement of A? Look at the red area. There are members of the universal set that are neither members of A, nor members of ~A. A proper complement must include the entire universal set--or the A/~A pair is a false dichotomy.

This is a simplification, but it represents the problem that does, in fact, happen when you define ~A as anything other than, "anything and everything that is not A". You create that red area, and you demonstrate a false dichotomy.
 
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Slowvehicle,
- I still think that we can mathematically show that we've covered all the bases in our specification of ~A.
- But maybe, I can get where I want to go by your route rather than mine. For the moment at least, I'll use "anything and everything that is not A" as my alternative hypothesis.
- Going that way, I find that given my current existence, A is most assuredly wrong. I'm sure that you disagree with my conclusion, and I think I know why, but how would you phrase your objection(s)?

Jabba,
- Your most recent specification for A is "My existence if finite and singular", correct?

- Did it occur to you that if B is "My existence" (referring to Jabba, of course) then P(B|A) = 100%?

- Are you sure this is all heading to where you intended?
 
Good Afternoon, Mr. Savage!

I am sorry to have committed one of the cardinal sins of teaching--that is, assuming too much background on the part of the class.

A Venn Diagram is a very simple way of representing set theory, with but a few assumptions.

The first is that the diagram itself represents every possibility; that is, the (usually rectangular) border of the diagram represents the set of everything (the "universal set").

A bordered area represents a specific set. In the first diagram, the blue ellipse is set A, the set of all conditions that satisfy premise A.

By definition, then, all of the rest of the universal set is the complement of A, that is, ~A; anything and everything that is not a member of A is a member of ~A.

Now, look at the second diagram.

The blue ellipse still represents A. The yellow ellipse represents a set named (incorrectly) "~A". The set has been defined as a set of characteristics; a set of things that satisfies a given definition. How can you tell that the set (incorrectly) named "~A" is not the complement of A? Look at the red area. There are members of the universal set that are neither members of A, nor members of ~A. A proper complement must include the entire universal set--or the A/~A pair is a false dichotomy.

This is a simplification, but it represents the problem that does, in fact, happen when you define ~A as anything other than, "anything and everything that is not A". You create that red area, and you demonstrate a false dichotomy.
Slowvehicle,

- As you certainly expected, I still disagree... Sorry. (And, sorry this took so long.)

- My claim is that I can mathematically, and more specifically, define that rectangular set (and, that it is useful to do so).
- In effect, A has three criteria in its definition: "finite," "and" and "singular." By defining ~A as including anything that is infinite and/or plural, I think that I have excluded any middle -- I think that I have more specifically defined "anything and everything that is not a member of A".
- Keep in mind that in the proposed Bayesian formula, I exist, and "never" is therefore excluded from both A and ~A.

- I think that some mathematician was able to prove that digitally speaking "pi" is infinite. I think that I, a little more easily perhaps, can prove that the complement in this case is not indefinite...:D

- I'm claiming that mathematically speaking, there can be only three subsets outside of A: anything that is infinite, anything that is plural, and anything that is (somehow) both infinite and plural. Therefore, I think that by defining ~A as including anything that is infinite and/or plural, I have mathematically covered the set of "anything and everything that is not a member of A".
 
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<snip>

- I think that some mathematician was able to prove that digitally speaking "pi" is infinite.

<snip>


It's been obvious for quite some time, Jabba, that you're far more interested in obtaining some self-perceived philosophical victory here than you are in establishing the facts of the matter before us.

This does not reflect well upon your intellectual integrity.



I think that I, a little more easily perhaps, can prove that the complement in this case is not indefinite...:D


I'll bet you think that people are laughing with you.
 
Slowvehicle,

- As you certainly expected, I still disagree... Sorry. (And, sorry this took so long.)

- My claim is that I can mathematically, and more specifically, define that rectangular set (and, that it is useful to do so).
- In effect, A has three criteria in its definition: "finite," "and" and "singular." By defining ~A as including anything that is infinite and/or plural, I think that I have excluded any middle -- I think that I have more specifically defined "anything and everything that is not a member of A".
- Keep in mind that in the proposed Bayesian formula, I exist, and "never" is therefore excluded from both A and ~A.

- I think that some mathematician was able to prove that digitally speaking "pi" is infinite. I think that I, a little more easily perhaps, can prove that the complement in this case is not indefinite...:D

- I'm claiming that mathematically speaking, there can be only three subsets outside of A: anything that is infinite, anything that is plural, and anything that is (somehow) both infinite and plural. Therefore, I think that by defining ~A as including anything that is infinite and/or plural, I have mathematically covered the set of "anything and everything that is not a member of A".
Setting aside the other problems with this, you have yet again redefined your complement. Now you are including in your definition of immortality a consciousness that exists exactly twice. So a baby born this morning, dead in the afternoon, reborn tomorrow and dead forever the next day is immortal by your definition.

Do you see a problem yet?
 
Slowvehicle,

- As you certainly expected, I still disagree... Sorry. (And, sorry this took so long.)

- My claim is that I can mathematically, and more specifically, define that rectangular set (and, that it is useful to do so).
- In effect, A has three criteria in its definition: "finite," "and" and "singular." By defining ~A as including anything that is infinite and/or plural, I think that I have excluded any middle -- I think that I have more specifically defined "anything and everything that is not a member of A".
- Keep in mind that in the proposed Bayesian formula, I exist, and "never" is therefore excluded from both A and ~A.

- I think that some mathematician was able to prove that digitally speaking "pi" is infinite. I think that I, a little more easily perhaps, can prove that the complement in this case is not indefinite...:D

- I'm claiming that mathematically speaking, there can be only three subsets outside of A: anything that is infinite, anything that is plural, and anything that is (somehow) both infinite and plural. Therefore, I think that by defining ~A as including anything that is infinite and/or plural, I have mathematically covered the set of "anything and everything that is not a member of A".

Good Morning, Mr. Savage! I hope your morning is progressing as pleasantly as mine is (my favorite intern was able to come home last night, if only for a brief visit).

I am sorry that you have chosen to take this route, the same route you chose in Shroud and in Shroud II, that is, standing by your claim even though it is demonstrably incorrect.

Let me emphasize that it is not me with whom you are disagreeing, but with the fundamental nature of dichotomy.

Follow:

Once you presume to define your ~A in terms of characteristics, while at the same time defining your A in terms of characteristics (that is, once you define neither of them as "anything and everything that is not the other one"), you have, by definition, created the second diagram. No matter how cleverly, or subtly, or creatively, or with what nuance you, personally, think you have listed the characteristics of "anything and everything that is not the other one", unless you have actually listed everything (which is, by nature, impossible) your limited "complementary couple" are not true complements, that is, they do not, in union, describe the universal set. You may have crafted a vernacular "opposite", or even "antithesis"; You have not constructed a complementary pair for the purposes of logic. You have merely created the red area in the second diagram.

It is the very fact that you are working so hard not to let your ~A be "indefinite" that makes your A/~A unrespresentative of complementarity.

Not to mention the fact that you are still working the apophatic side of the street. You have been hoping all along to establish that what has, in fact, happened, is so very unlikely, so (in practical terms) "impossible", even though it has, demonstrably, happened, that whatever alternative scenario you invent, presented without any evidence at all, is "more likely" than what is observed to happen; what can be demonstrated.

I encourage you, again, to seriously consider pulling at the other end of the knot. Why not simply present, in detail as gross or as fine as you can muster, your evidence (your practical. empirical, objective evidence) that the "soul" exists, and is "immortal".

Please notice that the claim, "Well, it just seems unlikely to me that we are mortal", is not evidence. Notice that "Statistically, I think it is less likely that consciousness is an emergent property of the specific neurosystem in which it is found than that some indefinable essence (that is not common experience, nor memory, nor identity, nor any demonstrable continuity) is more likely that that to which the evidence leads", is not evidence. Particularly notice that, "I fear the void", is not evidence.

Why do you think the "soul" exists?

Why do you think any of your versions (so very different from, say, the xianist claim of everlasting "life" after one "death"--which is not, BTW, defined into your ~A, above, and does not encompass your novel idea of "immortality" as unrelated sequential consciousnesses) explain reality better than the observed evidence?

I hope that you do not simply say that we will have to agree to disagree, so that you can "move on". You are, of course, free to believe whatever comforts you; I will champion your right to whatever faith fills your needs. it is when you try to "prove" that an article of your faith is more likely than observed reality; or when you try to claim that the fact that you believe should be enough indication that I, and others, should adopt your belief; or that your faith gives you the right to dictate the behaviours of others who do not, for whatever reason, share your belief, that you do err.

If you need to believe that you are "immortal" in order to face the darkness, feel free. If you want to pretend that I should be able to see that Bayes' system, or Venn's approach, or Houdini's beliefs, or Edward's claims, or Pascal's philosophy, or any other system can and does compel me, or anyone else, to accept an unevidenced contrafactual claim, you will need to apply more rigour than you have to date.

I encourage you again: start at the "other end" of the problem. Start with your evidence.
 
Setting aside the other problems with this, you have yet again redefined your complement. Now you are including in your definition of immortality a consciousness that exists exactly twice. So a baby born this morning, dead in the afternoon, reborn tomorrow and dead forever the next day is immortal by your definition.

Do you see a problem yet?
Garrette,
- At this point, I'm not claiming immortality -- My ~A is claiming either immortality or existing more than once. If I can ever get anyone to accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...
 
Garrette,
- At this point, I'm not claiming immortality -- My ~A is claiming either immortality or existing more than once. If I can ever get anyone to accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...


And here I was thinking that your claim couldn't be any more bizarre.
 
Garrette,
- At this point, I'm not claiming immortality -- My ~A is claiming either immortality or existing more than once. If I can ever get anyone to accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...

So to be certain I understand you definition, dead forever, as the baby Garrette hypothesizes, is immortal as you define it/will calculate it?

Again I ask, therefore, how you define immortality if our memories, personalities, looks, and possessions are lost with each iteration. What is retained? (please define what you consider the :"soul" if this is your answer).
Thanks!
 
Garrette,
- At this point, I'm not claiming immortality -- My ~A is claiming either immortality or existing more than once. If I can ever get anyone to accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...
Okay, but you have exactly the same problems in your complement as you had with immortality, regardless if you admit it or not. I suggest you read Slowvehicle's posts very carefully and then re-read the myriad posts about other possibilities.
 
Garrette,
- At this point, I'm not claiming immortality -- My ~A is claiming either immortality or existing more than once. If I can ever get anyone to accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...

Jabba, you haven't given any reason for limiting your ~A in such a way.
 
If I can ever get anyone to accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...


I think you're going to have to prove that 2 equals infinity for that.
 
I am going to use differential equations to essentially prove that I am my own brother. Of course, I don't fully understand differential equations, but here we go:

First, I define 2 as essentially equal to 3. When I can get everyone else here to agree to that (and of course they are biased), I will move on to show that I am essentially my brother and that we are all identical

Okay?
 
- Sorry to everyone I'm not answering, but my answers elicit new turmoil even when I'm as slow and as careful as possible when choosing my words.
 
Garrette,
- At this point, 2I'm not claiming immortality -- My ~A is claiming either immortality or existing more than once. If I can ever get anyone to 1accept that as the complement to A, I'll move on to trying to show that "more than once" amounts to immortality...

Good evening, Mr. Savage!

1. I do not accept this as the proper complement to A.

2. When did this happen, and why does it not close the thread? If you are not "claiming immortality" (whatever version of "immortality" you have retreated to), have you not just admitted that you cannot "essentially prove" "immortality" using Bayesian statistics"?
 
- Sorry to everyone I'm not answering, but my answers elicit new turmoil even when I'm as slow and as careful as possible when choosing my words.

Good Evening, Mr. Savage!

I would encourage you to consider that the near-unanimous rejection of your attempts to define both A and ~A might be an indication that the approach itself is invalid.

Is there a reason you are ignoring my advice to start at the other end, by presenting your evidence that the "soul" exists, and is, in fact, "immortal"?
 
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