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Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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I know you did and I agree, but it's amazing just how many are in Illinois. There may be significant problem there judging by the number listed for that state in the Registry. But I have to remember that having them listed may not be a bad thing. Since those people were actually exonerated. There may places where there are a lot more wrongfully convicted and yet fewer exonerations

I had a thought about Ms Knox related to this.
If she can ever get herself free, she might make a very good spokesperson for people in the US and worldwide who are convicted from false confessions.
Seems like we need to totally reconsider confessions used as evidence.
 
I kind of find it hard to believe the police ever behave this way. Are you suggesting a conspiracy involving a bunch of police and lawyers? Why would they do that? He could have kept silent, that's what I would do in the same situation. Based on just the few posts I've read in the last few pages here, I say he's guilty. It's just my opinion.

I would say he is innocent.... But I hardly know anything about the case... He could be guilty. The fact that sticks out to me is... Why would he not name the accomplice in the confession? I think he is too dumb to be thinking of protecting someone....

But not a conspiracy though.... It's just a confession is a trump all. It's so unbelievable to us that someone would just admit to killing someone.

But it seems to be all the prosecutor did was find a border line retard and completely wreck his mind..... After seeing the frontline episode "the confessions".... It makes a lot more sense then it did.
 
I had a thought about Ms Knox related to this.
If she can ever get herself free, she might make a very good spokesperson for people in the US and worldwide who are convicted from false confessions.
Seems like we need to totally reconsider confessions used as evidence.

Very good, I agree. There may be a purpose bigger than ourselves and Amanda. I know that she has been through hell. But going through this may in the end be a good thing for the world. (But I do think it is wrong for us to suggest what Amanda do with the rest of her life) Call it Karma, call it God...this may all be for a bigger purpose. ( I don't believe in God, but I do believe that there is a greater purpose). Both her notoriety and the facts of her case make her uniquely prepared to talk about what this is like.
 
Realistically, what happened in this particular case to Amanda in Perugia would not happen in the same type of case to Amanda in Seattle (if this case has a "type"). Trained, veteran police officers are familiar with the criminal element and can readily identify as "scum" the type of people they are used to dealing with. Many police are racist and many go overboard, but it would be difficult to arrest and detain people like Amanda and Raffaele here because of the checks and balances that exist, both legally and culturally. Young, attractive, verbal, intelligent, white American girls who have judges and lawyers for friends do not remain locked up for long.

Obviously, this is the argument the pro-guilt side has hung its hat on for six years, that Amanda's "privilege" gained her misplaced support. As Machiavelli has shown us many times, though, to be Amanda in Perugia is to be something "bad," whereas to the police in Seattle, to be Amanda is something "good."

Amanda's personal traits -- young, attractive, verbal, intelligent, white American girl with judges and lawyers for friends -- seem to arouse resentment in those who are culturally apart from her, whether (in the case of the PGP) because she is "privileged" or (in the case of PLE) she was maybe too autonomous, uppity and sexy. Some Seattle police might like to do to her what the Perugians did, but I don't think they could get away with it.

There is no getting away from the fact that it would be extremely unusual for Amanda Knox to be involved. It is firstly rare for women to be killers (80-90% are men) - and it is even rarer for women from Amanda Knox's socio-economic background to be killers. There is also nothing in her background that would indicate a propensity for violence, no childhood neglect, no conduct disorder or behavioural issues, her family appear loving and supportive and she has sustained long term relationships with both friends and boyfriends. There is nothing that makes her stand out as likely to have killed anyone. This should be enough to make anyone want to take a closer look at the evidence.

Amanda had also just started a relationship with Raffaele, who also had nothing in his background that would indicate a potential for violence, the best they could come up with was Manga comics and previously watching porn, which would make him similar (although probably tamer) to most men of his generation

From the little we know of Rudy Guede, he was obviously troubled and had experienced a traumatic childhood and had little in the way of family support. There is some evidence (from reading Nina Burleigh) that he was dissociating, which often occurs in people who have suffered some kind of childhood trauma. In the weeks before, it would appear that there was an increase in his criminal activities - he had likely broken into a few properties and had even threatened someone with a knife. In some ways, you can't help feeling terribly sorry for Rudy Guede and his early life experiences, however, he would completely fit the profile for someone unable to control his emotions during periods of great stress.

So you then have two possible scenarios
1) Rudy Guede killed and sexually assaulted Meredith when she came home and disturbed a burglary. This would be a fairly common murder of lone man attacking woman - and an easy to understand scenario
2) Amanda and Raffaele team up with someone they barely know/don't know and that Amanda can barely converse with - and then murder and sexually assault Meredith for some unknown reason - and likely all before 10pm. This would be an extremely rare and unusual murder, with no previous similar cases known

I would need some pretty conclusive evidence to believe scenario 2 and yet instead we have 1) a false confession whilst being denied a lawyer, 2) Widely discredited DNA tests and shoddy forensic work, 3) Amanda's own DNA being found where she lives 4) Random footprints and splodges, which are claimed to be blood but test negative for blood with TMB and don't really match anyone 5) Various themes on Amanda is a liar, slut, dirty, witch 6) forgetting all about Raffaele and going as far as minimising the involvement of Guede

I am confused about this case - it all seems so obvious and yet they have now been convicted twice and I still haven't heard of one bit of convincing evidence for their guilt
 
You were comparing apples and oranges and didn't realize you inadvertently undermined your position. Or, perhaps a better analogy is comparing the Mark One Eyeball with the world's best microscope.

Low Template DNA analysis has not been accepted in American courts and has only just begun being used in a few court cases. The primary reasons are difficulty in interpretation and the more stringent contamination control protocols required. Generally American forensic technicians find a substance and then identify it and determine who that is through DNA analysis. For example, they found blood on that knife and determined it was the victim's DNA and therefore his blood. They didn't go searching for low template DNA transfers, they found substances and then identified who that biological material belonged to which preserves its probative value. That way you can better determine what finding that substance means like semen in a vagina, saliva from a bite wound, skin/blood underneath fingernails, hairs pulled out with the roots. They used the Mark One Eyeball in the analogical sense. Take a look at the flow chart of the FBI standards on 8 of this report (22 of the pdf) and notice that the first step is determining the substance and if they can't do that they don't go further.

However when dealing with low template DNA, especially when they don't even bother to identify the substance, you may be finding low template transfers that don't indicate much of anything in some circumstances. Contamination itself is (generally) a low template transfer, which is why those who use the method above can claim very low rates of contamination: it's just less likely for greater amounts to transfer and those substances are less likely to do so than skin cells and the like which can get anywhere.

However, in the murder room they went down to the picogram and the lowest registering alleles and they found nothing of Raffaele and Amanda in the murder room, but plenty of Rudy Guede. They used the best microscope in the world and picked up any low level substance-unidentified transfer they could and they pretty much excluded the possibility Raffaele and Amanda were in that room that night. Some of Rudy Guede's DNA would not have been found employing the top method, but then again none of Guede's DNA had an innocent explanation at all, and frankly the bloody handprint, shoeprints, and the fleeing to Germany is all you'd need to convict him.

However going in six weeks later looking for low level transfers after the scene has been trashed giving only lip service to normal forensic procedures let alone LT/LCN requirements and finding an unidentified substance which has one major contributor and a minimum of three male minor contributors is pretty much worthless forensically, especially knowing the item sampled somehow motivated around and ended up in a pile of trash! There's no way to pretend the sampling done from the clasp indicates what was on it directly after the murder, and not knowing the substance means it could be anything transferring from anywhere at that point. Unlike Rudy, Raffaele had been in the girl's flat innocently during the week before the murder and most especially was there at the discovery, exerting himself at the door. Finding his DNA after six weeks in that blender doesn't prove a goddamn thing about the murder, especially because absolutely nothing of his was found on or around the body when the only real forensic investigation was done, the day of discovery when the body was found behind a locked door.

So please, no more comparing eyeballs and microscopes. :)

Thanks for that post, it's really interesting

So what people should really be saying is that 'there was not even any LCN DNA of Amanda and Raffaele within Meredith Kercher's room' - and this would make it even less likely that they were involved
 
So you then have two possible scenarios
1) Rudy Guede killed and sexually assaulted Meredith when she came home and disturbed a burglary. This would be a fairly common murder of lone man attacking woman - and an easy to understand scenario
2) Amanda and Raffaele team up with someone they barely know/don't know and that Amanda can barely converse with - and then murder and sexually assault Meredith for some unknown reason - and likely all before 10pm. This would be an extremely rare and unusual murder, with no previous similar cases known

I would need some pretty conclusive evidence to believe scenario 2 and yet instead we have 1) a false confession whilst being denied a lawyer, 2) Widely discredited DNA tests and shoddy forensic work, 3) Amanda's own DNA being found where she lives 4) Random footprints and splodges, which are claimed to be blood but test negative for blood with TMB and don't really match anyone 5) Various themes on Amanda is a liar, slut, dirty, witch 6) forgetting all about Raffaele and going as far as minimising the involvement of Guede

I am confused about this case - it all seems so obvious and yet they have now been convicted twice and I still haven't heard of one bit of convincing evidence for their guilt
I'm with you on your assessment. This case makes sand people "shake their head at the craziness that his even went to trail let alone resulted tin convictions. I highlighted the line about "false confession" because it really wasn't a false confession. It was a false statement. Amanda NEVER said she was involved in the murder. Only that she was in the cottage and she confusingly remenbered Patrick killing Meredith. Yet even in her statement she is not clearly saying Patrick killed Meredith. And a s I said, she never said she killed anyone.

It is no more a confession than any statement I've ever made. Sorry, this is my own little peccadillo in this case. It was NEVER a confession.
 
Very good, I agree. There may be a purpose bigger than ourselves and Amanda. I know that she has been through hell. But going through this may in the end be a good thing for the world. (But I do think it is wrong for us to suggest what Amanda do with the rest of her life) Call it Karma, call it God...this may all be for a bigger purpose. ( I don't believe in God, but I do believe that there is a greater purpose). Both her notoriety and the facts of her case make her uniquely prepared to talk about what this is like.

Not a believer in God. . .In fact, if anything, I am an anti-theist.
I believe purpose is something you make for yourself and this is something she could do.

I could see myself where the Norfolk Four were very easily. Had an apartment off base (to simply get away from my ship) that was not real far from where the crime occurred. Got out of the navy a few years beforehand as well but still I could see if the events happened a few years early, being brought in.
 
Not a believer in God. . .In fact, if anything, I am an anti-theist.
I believe purpose is something you make for yourself and this is something she could do.

I could see myself where the Norfolk Four were very easily. Had an apartment off base (to simply get away from my ship) that was not real far from where the crime occurred. Got out of the navy a few years beforehand as well but still I could see if the events happened a few years early, being brought in.

It is and I agree. But it has to be something she wants to do.

But I do believe that things work out for a reason. I'm an atheist but I think faith is important. It's the one thing I miss about church and religion. But when you love science as much as I do, it's just not very compatible.

I can relate to knowing where infamous events happened. In my twenties I lived in the same apartment building where Ted Bundy once lived a few years
earlier. Kinda cool and creepy at the same time.
 
As a practical matter the alibi argument looks pretty good, but practical considerations aren't driving beliefs in AK/RS guilt. Guede's report of a scream at about 9:30, the phone evidence and the implications that Kercher hadn't taken her coat off yet suggest that Kercher was probably dead by 9:30 but if one only accepts the 9:10 evidence then AK & RS have time time to make it to the cottage to assist Guede in killing Kercher before the hypothetical time of 9:30 that Kercher was probably dead by. The duodenum evidence seems to point to a time too late to provide an alibi for AK/RS even if the 9:26 cartoon start time is accepted, unless different estimates are assumed than Lalli based his estimates on.


You are stretching everything to the limit in order to get Amanda and Raffaele to the murder on time. You use the outer limit for the start of the meal of 6:30, you use the upper limit of revised digestion time of three hours to place the time of death no later than 9:30. Then you have the pair starting Naruto in Raffaele's apartment at 9:26 which gives them 4 minutes to get out of his apartment, run down to the cottage, start an argument with Meridith and kill her. This is an insain argument which doesn't give Amanda time to pull the knife from her bag so she must have been carrying it the whole way and that right there eliminates the concealed carrying of a weapon charge.
 
NancyS

What is 'dissociation' please?

I believe Nancy is talking about the psychological disorder. It was mentioned in one of the books that Rudy was going nuts, sleep walking, talking in tongs (mostly English), even preparing meals and not remembering what he had done afterwards.
 
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I believe Nancy is talking about the psychological disorder. It was mentioned in one of the books that Rudy was going nuts, sleep walking, talking in tongs (mostly English), even preparing meals and not remembering what he had done afterwards.

I just want to know more about it, Dan. I have read Burleigh and understand there are reports of some strange behaviour. I would just like to have an idea of what dissociation might be.
 
Regarding John Douglas and profiling, my opinion has long been that Douglas has "oversold" profiling somewhat, both within and outside the law enforcement field. I think that profiling has some clear areas of efficacy in pointing investigators in the right direction, but that's probably as far as it goes.

On top of that, I think that Douglas' experience of analysing serious crimes of violence means that his opinions on the Meredith Kercher case have some weight and validity. For example, I think that he's entirely justified and correct in saying that it's vanishingly unlikely that two people who had only been in a relationship for a week would group together with a third person whom they barely knew to commit a group attack culminating in murder. History and studies in psychology show that this is simply not feasible. These sorts of "thrill kill" murders committed by a group (i.e. two or more) must necessarily be underpinned by an extremely strong bond of trust and allegiance. Each of the participants has to be certain that the other(s) will be equally committed to the crime, and that the other(s) will remain bound by the codes of silence and loyalty after the crime has been committed.

The killer couples that certain pro-guilt commentators like to bring up in "comparison" are all connected by the fact that they were all couples for long periods of time before they started committing murder together, and they almost all started with lesser offences, then worked up to murder. In addition, there was almost always a highly-developed element of psychological intertwining - again, developed over months and years, and impossible to even begin to develop over six days. In most cases, a strong and dominant male essentially "brainwashed" an impressionable and weak female who was desperate to please her partnerand to submit to his whims (although there are instances of this happening in reverse).

So, in short, I believe that Douglas' views on Knox/Sollecito do have credibility and weight, and that his views are underpinned by solid evidence. However, I do believe that he has a tendency to hyperbolise and go too far at times in his theorising. But that in no way negates or invalidates most of his central points.
 
It is and I agree. But it has to be something she wants to do.

But I do believe that things work out for a reason. I'm an atheist but I think faith is important. It's the one thing I miss about church and religion. But when you love science as much as I do, it's just not very compatible.

I can relate to knowing where infamous events happened. In my twenties I lived in the same apartment building where Ted Bundy once lived a few years
earlier. Kinda cool and creepy at the same time.

I agree that she has to decide what she will do with her life.

As far as reasons for things happening, I actually prefer that things just happen because. It means that it is nobody's fault.
 
NancyS

What is 'dissociation' please?

This is straight from Oxford Handbook of Psychiatry - The separation of unpleasant emotions and memories from consciousness awareness with subsequent disruption to the normal integrated function of consciousness and memory.
A Fugue is a dissociative reaction to unbearable stress, following a severe external stressor - the affected individual develops global amnesia and may wander to a distant location. Consciousness is unimpaired

Dissociation is usually associated with traumatic events in childhood - Bruce Perry (Child Psychiatrist), writes a lot about dissociation and how it can present, it is a really interesting read - and he talks of one case that presents as an unexplained coma

It would also be associated with an inability to control your emotions at times of great stress - and it is possible that his memories of what happened are not that clear.

This was the piece from Nina Burleigh
Rudy never wanted to go home and was always happy to sleep on the floor of the apartment Victor shared with roommates. This only became a problem when Rudy started displaying very strange sleeping disorders. His eyes were normally droopy and during these attacks one couldn’t tell if he was awake or asleep. Rudy would rise in the middle of the night and, using a dresser as a black board, teach a lesson as though he was a professor, moving seamlessly between Italian and English. The students found this particularly unsettling. When he awoke in the morning he had no memory of the event. He told his friends that at home he had to hide his keys from himself because he tended to get up in this state and wander the streets, only to awaken miles from his home.

He also had periods of crawling on the floor and barking like a dog.

After his arrest, these behaviors were classified as psychogenic dissociative state or Fugue State, often associated with multiple personality disorder and nearly always the result of childhood sexual and physical abuse.

I'm not sure who assessed these behaviours and came to this conclusion (did Guede see a psychiatrist?) - however, there does seem to be evidence to suggest that he was a troubled young man
 
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And what would that be?


I'm not telling you :D

Meanwhile, what do you think about the Nencini court's verdict? Do you think it is fair and reasonable? Will you be reading the motivation report? Do you think that Knox and/or Sollecito have any sort of case to take to the ECHR? Do you think that this would have any effect on an extradition request?

(You know, subjects that are actually related to the topic of this thread... :) )
 
Does anybody remember this case?
There was a case where couple in high school murdered another (female) student I believe because of jealousy.
Believe both the boy and girl were slated to go to military academies, one air force and one navy.
Cannot remember enough to get hits off of Google

Edit: Found it
Diane Zamora and David Graham.
Could it be argued that this is a similar crime to what might be argued here
Not that I believe it myself
 
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I am with you on this but I would like to understand the TOD argument. It has been argued around here that the duodenum evidence provides an almost unassailable alibi for RS/AK. Right now the evidence as I understand it doesn't support the notion that the alibi is as strong as has been argued.

As a practical matter the alibi argument looks pretty good, but practical considerations aren't driving beliefs in AK/RS guilt. Guede's report of a scream at about 9:30, the phone evidence and the implications that Kercher hadn't taken her coat off yet suggest that Kercher was probably dead by 9:30 but if one only accepts the 9:10 evidence then AK & RS have time time to make it to the cottage to assist Guede in killing Kercher before the hypothetical time of 9:30 that Kercher was probably dead by. The duodenum evidence seems to point to a time too late to provide an alibi for AK/RS even if the 9:26 cartoon start time is accepted, unless different estimates are assumed than Lalli based his estimates on.

I don't quite follow the second paragraph. But suppose it takes five minutes to get from Raffaele's house to Amanda's. (I vaguely recall that figure from the early days but I will gratefully accept correction if it is wrong.)

So the scenario is Raffaele hits a button at 21:10 then they both run out the door immediately for no reason anyone can reconstruct, get to Amanda's house at 21:15, high-five Rudy, murder Meredith without leaving any traces, and then get back out the door again by 21:21 so they can be home at 21:26 to watch Naruto. It's not impossible if they were part of a premeditated murder plan carried out with military precision, but it looks impossible to me if we have to fit a prank gone wrong, Satanic ritual, argument about poo, momentary choice for evil or whatever the hell it is this year in to the timeline.

I guess it's not a problem if you "don't accept" the 21:26 Naruto event as real but you can make any theory work if you get to selectively "not accept" any facts which get in the way. You could have the Easter Bunny do it if you are allowed to do that.
 
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