Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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I see 'broken window perplexity' hasn't gone away !

There are several posters :) who could explain it to you but as you are a scientist IIRC you can probably figure it out.

Oh, and one other minor point ...

The case is over.

As they say it is over when the fat woman sings. It would not be unknown for the ISC to return the case for review for a third time. We have the ECHR case. Lots of time for this thread to run.

Yes I am a scientist. I make a testable hypothesis and try to disprove it. So which school of thought are you with? Stone thrown from inside or out? Stone thrown against inside surface or outside surface of window. All are compatible with staging. So which do you favour? Or are you afraid to commit? Because if you actually had to come up with a definite hypothesis it might be proven false and you might have to face the fact that you had condemned two innocent people.

To be frank I do not know or care about AK or RS, live or die all the same to me. I do care about shoddy science. So if I'm proved wrong I really do not mind. If they found a knife with MK blood on the blade and AK or RS finger prints on the handle I'd happily say they're guilty. I'm not emotionally invested in this.

As it is I think the most reasonable explanation is RG (with a clear history of breaking and entering, stealing mobile phones, carrying a knife) broke in and for some reason killed MK. I think there is no evidence to suggest RS or AK were involved, and any arguments to the contrary show a lack of understanding of the science.

I suspect your response means I touched a nerve, challenging your confirmation bias. If my comment angers you it is because it challenges your cognitive model.
 
Amanda and Raff are not the only ones damaged by this goon squads attempt to save face. Remember blogger Frank S., authors Douglas Preston and Mario Spezi, reporters from Oggi and at least two Italian newspapers charged with crimes for saying the prosecution was wrong?

Well, that is why the Italian citizens have the wrong impression about this case. The goon squads have the press so afraid of being harass and prosecuted, they don't dare report the actual facts.
 
It has been suggested that some new physical evidence might illuminate things. One of the key arguments is with regards to the break in. RG was not charged with a break in because there was no evidence that there was a break in. The prosecution allege he was allowed in by either MK or AK. The only people with an interest in faking a break in would be AK. But it seems unlikely that AK would know that RG had a history of burglary. If RS had a confederate, perhaps a drug dealer who wanted access to the flat down stairs where there was the stash of a rival supplier and wanted to pressurise MK into handing over the key to access this. This confederate would know of RG history and know to fake the break in.

I don't believe this but it fits the facts. So we need to look is there evidence of any one else, any unidentified DNA or fingerprints?

Yes there was unidentified DNA, It's at the end of the RTIGF, try page 267, it looks like 8 males and 3 females, though I can't recall if that includes the ones they eventually identified or not. Some of those are from downstairs and the bloody tissues (not Meredith's blood) found outside. The same is true of fingerprints, but haven't looked at that for a while.

I think the defence not only needs to deny the involvement of AK and RS but create alternative narratives that matches the facts. A lone killer is not acceptable so there has to be an alternative that involves RG and others.

That's what that whole travesty involving Alessi and Aviello was all about, producing possibilities for someone else who could have been involved with Rudy. I thought at the time it was a formality, it never truly sunk in that any system could work like the Italian system seems to: that because Mignini and Rudy's defense decided there were more attackers that it was set in stone and Raffaele and Amanda would be judged on that basis: whether it was then or some other people. That's literally insane considering the pathetic argument made for multiple attackers, which should be a minority position on the basis of the evidence. Very minority, as in infantile.

The prosecution cleverly avoid details in their scenario. Making it difficult for the defence to rebut. They allege the break in was fake, but provide no evidence. They do not have a falsifiable hypothesis. They do not specify was the window broken by throwing a stone from the garden, from inside against the inner pain with the window closed, or against the outside of the window with it opened to the inside.

The latter, and their scenario is quite detailed, I've spent a fair number of posts on it as I got interested when I made a post like yours and Platonov had his way with me for a few pages. The translated prose in Massei regarding the breaking of the window is quite confusing, especially for someone like me who's never seen (or didn't notice) a window like that which you can pull in on that axis, and had forgotten there were two sets of shutters. I should have been looking at the pictures when I was reading that section, instead my mind started convulsing so I skipped ahead to the next paragraph. It's a damned silly idea that the break-in was staged, but the entirety of the prosecution argument is quite clever.

That the climb was unclimbable is falsifiable. The defence should have put more effort into this. There is poor quality imaging of the outside of the building, the defence should point out the smudges and say they are the footprints of some one breaking in. The poor quality pictures of the window frame and inside show footprints.

I think that challenging the 'staged break-in' is better than pretending more people were there who might have done it, that strikes me as a losing strategy not the least because it's trying to prove something that actually didn't happen without the authority of the police and prosecution and their evidence gathering and distorting powers.

I guess it is too much to hope that the glass from the window was preserved and is able to be analysed to show the direction of breaking.

The prosecution theory includes the window being broken from the outside of the glass, but from inside the room.

The defence need to utilise the poor forensic analysis to sow doubt. The lack of investigation cuts both ways. So far I think the defence have been too 'gentlemanly', like a good politician being interviewed the defence needs to decide on the message they want to get over and make it regardless.

I agree, but that would go easier with the entirety of the DNA work being available to the defense. It's not impossible for Rudy to have had accomplices, it's just there's not enough available evidence from the scene to prove much of anything.
 
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<snip> It was also generated by throwing her in solitary with a notebook and denying her access to a lawyer. When she refers to the statements she "stands by" it must be remembered she had only a semester of Italian and two months in Italy and could not necessarily comprehend all the nuances of what it said, notably the very last line of the first one which says "I confusedly remember he killed her." She didn't write that, her 5:45 AM statement doesn't have her 'witnessing' the actual murder at all, neither does her note.

I think Amanda's comment that she stands by what she said was her way of saying first, that she knows she did not lie (because she's not a liar), and second, that the fact that what she said was untrue does not mean the cops lied to her. She is avoiding accusing the cops of making her say things that weren't true, not only because she still believes them, but also because she has empathy for them (as she stated).

<snip>I don't believe it was a 'conspiracy' at all, I do think they broke the rules in their fervor to solve the case and had jumped to a conclusion off of misinterpretation, confirmation bias and just plain incompetence and are certainly not going to take the blame for it when they can scapegoat someone else they arrested for murder. So why would they offer up anything that might make it look like the impetus of the arrest of Patrick was their doing when they've successfully made Amanda take the fall for it to the benefit of all of them?<snip>

To call it a conspiracy is to call every top-down operation in any business a conspiracy. The employees have no choice but to cooperate with the boss; that is their role. The same goes in families, schools, teams, politics, you name it. The idea that anyone would have had reason to defy Mignini's direction at that point is ridiculous.
 
So, no comment on

The Supreme Court is part of the problem, but it's hardly a conspiracy (is that your favorite word? :)) as they're making idiots of themselves in full public view and have proven that by writing their opinion on the subject which proved they don't have the first clue about the evidence they were adjudicating on. That's probably because they don't have the resources to do such a thing and most definitely don't have the scientific training or even aptitude.

Listen ? - sure. Why, have you shouted the answer at me?

On a forum you have to type it out I'm afraid.

Beware! I will bury you in a wall of text. :p
 
If the shoe does not fit

I think the defence not only needs to deny the involvement of AK and RS but create alternative narratives that matches the facts. A lone killer is not acceptable so there has to be an alternative that involves RG and others.
Planigale,

There is a luminol-positive shoe print in the hall that Rinaldi never attributed to anyone. That might be a good start.
 
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Absolutely NOTHING. If they were arresting you, they would take it from you. But it's is not illegal to carry a knife.

It is illegal to carry a knife in Italy, it is charged under art. 699 "unjustified carrying of weapon".

My best friend on the planet, a guy I went to college with also carries a knife and he still carries a knife all the time while he's not on the job..actually he carries it while he's on the job as well.

He's a sergeant with the Seattle Police Department.

And if it is illegal to carry a knife in Italy, why didn't they charge him with that crime?

He was charged. As you can see from headlines:

http://www.corriere.it/cronache/09_dicembre_04/processo-perugia-accuse-amanda-raffaele_7cde8b6a-e11a-11de-b6f9-00144f02aabc.shtml

This does not mean the charge is significant, also because in cases of minor gravity it's a police fine and has a time expiration after 2 years.
 
I think Amanda's comment that she stands by what she said was her way of saying first, that she knows she did not lie (because she's not a liar), and second, that the fact that what she said was untrue does not mean the cops lied to her. She is avoiding accusing the cops of making her say things that weren't true, not only because she still believes them, but also because she has empathy for them (as she stated).

Very well put.

To call it a conspiracy is to call every top-down operation in any business a conspiracy. The employees have no choice but to cooperate with the boss; that is their role. The same goes in families, schools, teams, politics, you name it. The idea that anyone would have had reason to defy Mignini's direction at that point is ridiculous.

Or for that matter those with similar interests or aims cooperating. Or just enemies sometimes. Politics is one big 'conspiracy' if you think of it that way.
 
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Now Machiavelli is claiming something different - something not even Mignini claimed in the sources we have access to.

So is Mignini lying to Drew Griffin, or is Machiavelli lying here?
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I said that Knox decided to release a statement.
Which is exactly the same thing Mignini said.

Try to come to grips with it.
 
The prosecution theory includes the window being broken from the outside of the glass, but from inside the room.

A theory that doesn't fit the evidence of where the broken glass ended up, but apparently that doesn't matter. Physics is still seen as heresy in parts of Italy.
 
Planigale,

There is a luminol-positive shoe print in the hall that Rinaldi never attributed to anyone. That might be a good start.

That's my mermaid, isn't it? How does one go trying to attribute that one, take Ariel into the backroom in the middle of the night and break her alibi?

:p

 
It is illegal to carry a knife in Italy, it is charged under art. 699 "unjustified carrying of weapon".

He was charged. As you can see from headlines:

http://www.corriere.it/cronache/09_dicembre_04/processo-perugia-accuse-amanda-raffaele_7cde8b6a-e11a-11de-b6f9-00144f02aabc.shtml

This does not mean the charge is significant, also because in cases of minor gravity it's a police fine and has a time expiration after 2 years.

What kind of knife is considered a weapon? A specific blade length? As I have said, I have been carrying a knife for more than 40 years.. I don't consider it a weapon, but a tool.

In my book there is nothing sleazy about carrying a knife as Vibio is saying.
 
It is illegal to carry a knife in Italy, it is charged under art. 699 "unjustified carrying of weapon".

He was charged. As you can see from headlines:

http://www.corriere.it/cronache/09_dicembre_04/processo-perugia-accuse-amanda-raffaele_7cde8b6a-e11a-11de-b6f9-00144f02aabc.shtml

This does not mean the charge is significant, also because in cases of minor gravity it's a police fine and has a time expiration after 2 years.


Did they charge Amanda with carrying a knife, too?

Or was that something that could not be proven?
 
He was charged. As you can see from headlines:

http://www.corriere.it/cronache/09_dicembre_04/processo-perugia-accuse-amanda-raffaele_7cde8b6a-e11a-11de-b6f9-00144f02aabc.shtml

This does not mean the charge is significant, also because in cases of minor gravity it's a police fine and has a time expiration after 2 years.

So, tell me again why Mignini couldn't investigate and charge Guede for his burglaries, or for that matter just carrying a knife in a school?
 
Well at least Strozzi cited a source, whether you like it or not. I am still waiting to hear your source for saying Mignini showed up at 2.00 a.m. Three strikes and you're out, Mach.

Let's make clear that you are not going to establish where I "am" in no way.
Actually I have two kind of sources: one is people I spoke to directly, and the second is transcripts. I was told that Mignini arrived after 2 am, the people who told me are Mignini himself and the officer who drove him. He told me it was definitely not half an hour, he was fast asleep and dreaming in REM sleep, and he told me he went to bet quite later than that. When he arrived at the police station, he just passed by Knox's room on his way to Chiachiera's office and she was alone, the interrogation was already over and it was abundantly later than 2am.
The second source is the transcripts. Giobbi's transcripts for example, just confirm what Mignini and Buratti said: it was only after Knox's 'confession', after he stopped the questioning, that he decided it was time to call the PM. This is clear if you read Giobbi's transcript: he says let's call the PM only after Knox's interrogation has been already stopped, when it was all over.
 
Did they charge Amanda with carrying a knife, too?

Or was that something that could not be proven?


They certainly did, I listed the charges and sentences a few (or dozen) pages back now.

But no extra charges for poor, poor Rudy!
 
Raffaele was being advised by his father and sister, for his own reason he chose to ignore them, they both advised him to get counsel, an unnamed police officer allegedly advised him to get a lawyer. He wasn’t alone, does his book cover why he ignored this advice? This wasn’t a stolen had bag or a road traffic accident his girlfriend of six days housemate had just been brutally murdered, it was not an everyday occurrence, well not in my book.

The very points you make about his age (23) the growing media storm is why I don’t understand why he ignored the advice of his then Caribinieri officer sister.

He was a kid. The one thing he and Knox clearly had in common was exceptional naivety.

From a parent's point of view, his behavior was utterly maddening. Unfortunately, kids DO ignore parental advice -- and based on experience, I'd be willing to say are more apt to ignore it in the throes of new love.

Absolutely, the crime was serious. God knows if he'd hired a lawyer, the entire debacle would have been avoided. But don't you see? He did what innocent people foolishly do. It never crossed his mind he'd be charged with murder. If he were guilty, it most certainly would have. If he were guilty, he'd have been mightily concerned with protecting himself.

Dumb, dumb kid! He should have listened to his father. But ignoring good advice doesn't make him a murderer. What he and Knox are terribly guilty of is being caught up in their own little world and oblivious to certain aspects of what was happening around them.

It really was the perfect storm: had they not been gaga over each other they probably both would have behaved somewhat differently and attracted less suspicion. If they hadn't been innocent, they wouldn't have been so blithely unconcerned with protecting themselves.
 
So, tell me again why Mignini couldn't investigate and charge Guede for his burglaries, or for that matter just carrying a knife in a school?

First of all: "tell me again" is a rude request. I am not supposed to tell things twice.
Second, Guede was not carrying a knife. He had a knife in his rucksack, and the bag was inside a building. There is no crime in this. Carrying a knife means carrying on your person or in a vehicle from a location to another.
Anyway I made a mistake: because, re-reading the article. I thin the unjustified carrying of a knife refers to the carrying of the kitchen knife back from the cottage to the apartment.

Last, not only Guede could not be charged or prosecuted, but also the main point is that a prosecution on those alleged charges would have been irrelevant, because it could not be used in the Kercher case.
The Milan episode obviously could not be prosecuted by Mignini because Milan is a different jurisdiction. He was caught with stolen items in Milan: this means only a Milan proseutor could deal with this.
But also, most important, you are talking about charges related to other deeds totally independent from the Kercher murder, therefore they cannot have an influence in the case. If Guede already had established criminal records, then those criminal records could be used, but only to argue against mitigation, not to increase the penalty (anyway Mignini and Comodi already managed to obtain the highest penalty, that was 30 years, they could not obtain more on that charges).
But Guede did not have any criminal record. Above all, he had no criminal record for rape and violence. Also, no theft was proven to be committed in the house; not even drawers were searched.
 
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