So if the academic consensus supported the idea of an historic John Frum, you'd consider it likely? So why doesn't the academic consensus regarding the likelihood of an historic Jesus move you similarly?
Step back for a moment and ask
why doesn't the anthropological community even
consider the idea of a deluded Navy Serviceman preaching some wonky idea that God would bring the natives he is preaching to heaven on Earth in the form of cargo in the 1910s and his native followers taking the idea and ran with it.
The answer is much the same one given for the idea the Sphinx was made 3 to 4 thousand years - there is no supporting evidence for such a theory.
With John Frum we have the advantage of detailed anthropological studies from 1952 forward allowing one to piece together an evolution of the concept.
1940-1952: John Frum is a vague idea and his cargo paradise will only come about once all the whites have left. (This implies that originally John Frum wasn't seen as white otherwise he would have to leave as well)
c1957: we start seeing the idea that John Frum himself is a white man and picks up a flesh and blood brother Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh even though the man has only sisters. This seems to be when the idea of John Frum being a serviceman also comes into vouge.
c1960 natives start carrying around pictures of men they believe to be John Frum
If we take the tack that Manehivi (the first native to use the name John Frum) was the founder of the cult then the oral tradition in about 17 years (1940 to 1957) totally wiped him from memory to replace him with the white Navy Serviceman regarded as John Frum to the present day.
However there
is evidence of John Frum before 1940 and these reports are a muddle with John Frum being an
Black American GI, a white man, or Melanesian. At least one version put John Frum's supposed appearance in 1931 but before that there is nothing...at least under the name John Frum.
Not the sort of thing you would expect with a flesh and blood founder but exactly what you would expect from an imagined vision inspired person who picked up various attributes as time moved on.
Paul's writing on Jesus is vague...almost like a cold reading by a palm reader. We continue to get this vagueness until c140 when the Marcion Bible shows up with Paul's writings and the Evangelikon (supposedly an altered version of Luke) which Marcion believed was written by Paul as dictated by Christ himself (ie via vision).
Marcion's position on the Evangelikon is strange as it appears to curb stomp the idea of Jesus being an actual person by throwing out the idea of any actual witnesses to events and having Paul basically vision quest the whole shebang. And this was the first attempt (that we know of) of making a Christian bible. Anyone else see a little problem with this?