• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

Status
Not open for further replies.
"What evidence do you think supports that theory?"

Her breakdown and accusation of Lumumba, their inability to explain how they had passed the night, his lie about the computer usage alibi, her absurd story on the visit to the cottage next day, etc.

I know all the innocentist "explanations" for these, but I don't buy them. For me it is more credible that they lie.

Why would they lie if they weren't actually involved in the murder as it appears you propose? What you advance is pretty dubious regarding whether they lied in the first place, if by that you mean they deliberately told untruths in order to conceals some sort of guilt. Just curious what causes you to think that her story returning to the cottage is absurd, or that an 'absurd' story would in fact be an indication of guilt?

If they actually intended to report the murder pretending to know nothing about it, wouldn't just calling the police once after going there and 'discovering' things out of place be the way (just about) everyone would do it? Who would do it by going there first and showering, then go back to Raffaele's, then back to the cottage and in the meantime make all those calls telling people about it and asking?
 
Last edited:
I thought in the Massei trial his lawyers stipulated that he might have turned off the phone. The point being that the prosecution was claiming that turning off the phones showed premeditation while at the same time they were arguing that there was no premeditation.

So, Bolint, what is your theory of the crime?

Bolint - I'm also curious as to why you think Amanda brought the kitchen knife from Raffaele's?
 
Is it unreasonable to conclude that Meredith’s alleged DNA on the knife could have got there by perfectly innocent means with no murder having been committed? We know that DNA can be transferred easily by primary, secondary or tertiary means. The quality of the DNA means it was either secondary or tertiary transfer. Amanda and Meredith shared the same toilet and living space, some sources suggest that they borrowed each others clothes. Amanda could have picked up Meredith’s DNA at the flat on her hands or from clothing on any occasion and transferred it onto the knife when cooking at Raffaeles flat.

We hear Maresca still banging on about Meredith’s DNA being on the knife but surely the burden of proof is on the prosecution to prove that the DNA was on the knife as a result of the alleged attack on Meredith and not by innocent means, this is of course something they can’t do since there was no blood on the knife! Even if the DNA was more substantial and was able to be tested twice it still offers no guarantee that the DNA wasn’t there by innocent means. The prosecution of course are absolved from having to prove any such thing!

The DNA on the bra-clasp hook seems to suggest contamination by it’s very location and by the other male DNA unidentified on the hook that doesn’t exist anywhere else on the bra. It is clear that the DNA was deposited after the clasp was ripped off. You would have to ask yourself why Raffaele would have such an interest in a detached bra-clasp considering the gravity of the alleged ongoing situation! The eventual retrieval of the bra-clasp shows it being handled by the hooks and at least one of the wearers having dirty gloves. If an eejit like me can get it, why can’t the Italian judiciary?

And you thought you'd seen the back of me!!:)

Hoots!

Most of the people participating in this thread can probably provide a more informed answer than me, but I'll take a shot at an answer.

I think it's very unlikely that Kercher's DNA was on that knife when the police removed it from the drawer for the following reasons.

1. The after the fact finding
Neither RS or AK DNA had been found to be in a place that it didn't belong before the authorities decide to do some more DNA testing. The police pulled a knife out of Sollecito's drawer that doesn't match a wound left by the murder weapon or the stain on the sheet and a trace of Kercher DNA is found on the knife and Sollecito DNA is found on the bra hook. That's a very big coincidence.

2. Amount below levels judged reliable for the procedures and machines used
Apparently the amount of DNA present was below the level that the machine's manufacture claimed that reliable measurements can be made at. In addition, Apparently the procedures required to collect and analyze super low concentrations of DNA were not followed so that contamination from collection or testing procedures might even be the most likely explanation in this case.

3. Unlikely selection of the location for the site of the test
Stefanoni claimed that she saw a scratch in the blade and decided to test that location for the DNA. Apparently the scratch wasn't visible to others and the idea that Stefanoni just happened to hit the location where Kercher DNA was sounds unlikely to me.

4. Failure to find DNA at the site in a retest
A second swab was tested by C & V and Kercher's DNA wasn't found.

5. Failure to publish all relevant material for the testing
This issue has continued to be controversial in this thread and I am confused, but my guess right now is that proof of control tests and the relevant raw results for the testing have never been released to the defense. If this is true, this suggests that Stefanoni realizes that her procedures were flawed and she is attempting to prevent disclosure of materials that would prove it.

6. Unlikely to remove blood and not the DNA from the blood
Chris_Halkides posted above the comments of an expert that he quoted as saying was unlikely that the knife could have been washed well enough to remove all the blood without removing the DNA as well.

Overall, I am inclined to believe the fix was in with regard to the Kercher DNA finding on the knife from Sollecito's apartment. The people involved may not have intentionally planted evidence but their actions suggested a conscious knowledge that what they were doing might produce misleading results and if those results were consistent with what they were looking for they were OK with that.

I do wish I had a better understanding of the raw data produced during the testing. I would like to have a better feel for how strong the peaks were and whether just straightforward over fitting of the Kercher DNA patterns to the results was a possible explanation also.

I am more inclined to see the tests that found Sollecito DNA on the bra hook as reliable than the knife DNA. A lot here is made of the fact that the DNA of other males besides Sollecito was found on the clasp (reasonably so since it suggests contamination), but as I recall the height of these peaks is much lower than that for Sollecito and the height of the peaks for Sollecito are much lower than the height of the peaks for Kercher. Again, I wish I understood this area better, but my sense of it is that if Sollecito's DNA on the bra hook was not a stand alone result that suggests Sollecito guilt I might be inclined to just accept it as a valid result. As it is now, it is a complete outlier. There is no other substantive evidence of Sollecito's involvement in this crime and innocent transfer or contamination in the collection/testing seem like much more likely explanations to me for the result. And for completeness, I think the low level of the Sollecito DNA peaks might have been below what is considered adequate for reliable results with the machines used
 
Again, I wish I understood this area better, but my sense of it is that if Sollecito's DNA on the bra hook was not a stand alone result that suggests Sollecito guilt I might be inclined to just accept it as a valid result.

But it doesn't even suggest Raff's guilt! Of all the ways his DNA could have got on the bra hooks, involvement in the murder is the least likely. There is no way someone involved in the kind of attack the PGP are trying to claim, would ever touch the metal hook.
 
I am more inclined to see the tests that found Sollecito DNA on the bra hook as reliable than the knife DNA.

In the 'damning with faint praise' sense, I agree.

However, let me put it this way:

What makes you think forensic DNA science has any validity in court at all? What is it that makes it more reliable than dousing for example?
 
But it doesn't even suggest Raff's guilt! Of all the ways his DNA could have got on the bra hooks, involvement in the murder is the least likely. There is no way someone involved in the kind of attack the PGP are trying to claim, would ever touch the metal hook.

I am afraid I didn't state what I meant very well. If the result was part of an overall pattern of guilt then I think the result wouldn't be that surprising. The point I was trying to make was that the result is not as easily dismissed as the knife result. There might have been questionable procedures, there might be an innocent explanation for the DNA on the hook, but the result is harder to explain away than that Kercher's DNA was supposedly on the knife. In the actual situation, where there is no other substantive evidence of Sollecito's guilt, the probable explanation is either innocent transfer, contamination, or testing error.

I agree that a stand alone sample of DNA on the hook without the detection of any other DNA on the bra is hard to put into a scenario that points to Sollecito's guilt. However if his DNA had been found on other places on the bra besides the hook I don't think it would be as reasonable to dismiss the DNA sample on the hook as the result of contamination.

My sense of it is that having Sollecito DNA in the second highest amount on that hook is difficult to explain by a theory of simple contamination. There was a lot more non Sollecito DNA in that apartment than Sollecito DNA. It seems unlikely that in a random contamination event in that apartment, Sollecito would end up being the number two contributor. Of course, contamination events after the collection of evidence may be occur where there is much higher concentration of DNA from suspects than from all the people who may have had access to the apartment.
 
What absurd story? Can you answer why they were raising the alarm from before returning to to cottage for the second time that morning.... it seems to me that they were trying to call attention to the cottage.....

Yes, she had to. Suppose she visited the cottage and then did not call anyone and they go to Gubbio. Who would have believed her? I don't believe even her actual version. Once she went there she had to raise the alarm one way or another. Also, it was quite logical for Amanda not to call Filomena while she was still in the cottage.

And why does Knox "naming" Lumumba make you believe Rudy and she were involved?

Naming Lumumba in my interpretation was a desperate try to gain time having learnt that Raffaele does not provide her alibi anymore.
 
What makes you think forensic DNA science has any validity in court at all? What is it that makes it more reliable than dousing for example?

:)

What you think dousing isn't reliable?

First, a caveat, I am treading in areas here where my knowledge level is poor.

When I was musing about the bra hook DNA result I was not thinking about the admissibility of the results in a trial. I think if I understood all the details associated with the testing including failures to perform adequate control testing and failures to provide raw results to the defense and failure to adequately guard against contamination during the recovery of the broken off section of the bra I would believe that the evidence should have been inadmissible and I suspect it would have been in most American courts.

The object of my musing about the DNA on the hook was to think about what the likely explanation for that result was. All explanations for the DNA on the hook seem unlikely to me, but one of them must be true. And for me the least likely explanation is that the DNA on the bra hook was left there while Sollecito cooperated in some strange way for which there is zero evidence in the murder of Kercher.
 
The problems start when you try to fill in the details, preferably with more evidence. For her to be there requires a reason for her to leave Raf's place and hook up with a guy she scarcely knew.

The reason not necessarily was to meet Rudy. May have been simply to change clothes as her job was cancelled that night.

.... that require explanation, like Raf standing resolutely by her for the last 6 years, for example, and her never blaming Guede (even though he blames her without compunction).

I would not call it resolute at all.
Even in his diary he is still unsure.

How could Amanda have blamed Guede if her defense was that she never was in the cottage that night?
As for Guede, he never blamed Amanda directly, only indirectly when he wanted to give something to Mignini.
 
Come on bolint, show a complete timeline for that evening. If yon cannot construct one plausible time series for what you believe then that should be your hint that you are believing in irrational rumors. Where is your osmotic view?
 
The reason not necessarily was to meet Rudy. May have been simply to change clothes as her job was cancelled that night.
OK so she goes home to change and then?



I not call it resolute at all.
Even in his diary he is still unsure.
Surely that can be explained by the confusion sown in his mind by the cops. Both of them were made to distrust their recollections. That is not his position now. Why not just say it was her? Don't you think Mignini would have grasped at a deal with Raf if he got Amanda? Like he did with Guede?

How could Amanda have blamed Guede if her defense was that she never was in the cottage that night?

This I don't get. If her defense was that she was not there how does admitting she was there and telling a falsifiable lie help?

As for Guede, he never blamed Amanda directly, only indirectly when he wanted to give something to Mignini.
I thought he insinuated the murder resulted from an argument between the two about stolen money.
 
So the lack of physical evidence means nothing?

If she does not participate directly in the murder what physical evidence would exist?
The few that existed, anyway, is explained away like for example the bleeding ear.

And what inability to explain how they passed the night?

That simple. They could not explain what they were doing. Like he doesn't remember if she was there, if they were making love, etc. You may believe it, I don't.

Also, you just said that Raffaele wasn't there but Amanda was. So you have Raffaele covering for Amanda for 6 years. Why would he do that?

At the time of the murder.
I don't know if he was not there later, as I don't know what they were doing the whole night.

Now regardless of your opinion about Amanda's involvement, do you really believe that there is enough evidence beyond a reasonable doubt of Amanda's involvement?

No, I don't think so. But it is a problem for the judge, not for me.
I'm not interested neither in their conviction, nor in their acquittal.
I'm only interested in learning what happened that night. I don't expect it to be clear beyond reasonable doubt. But now I would bet on guilt.
 
Bolint's thinking is exactly what Jim Snowden addressed in his blog post. It is a subjective impression that is impervious to fact or reason.
 
If she does not participate directly in the murder what physical evidence would exist?
The few that existed, anyway, is explained away like for example the bleeding ear.
Why would she cover for Rudy bolint? Someone she has met only twice and can hardly communicate with ? It makes no sense.

You have her there at the cottage during the murder, but not in the murder room and then doing what? Waiting for Rudy to leave the cottage and then keep her mouth shut about the whole affair?

Do you believe for example that Amanda has some kind of deep hatred for Meredith and she is some kind of cheerleader for Rudy killing her roommate of 42 days?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom