Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Diocletus]

Bill\Grinder


Do either of you recall? What were the conclusions of the channel 5 programme self-defence expert used to demonstrate whether a single person could have restrained Meredith and use a knife at the same time?

I think they said that it would be impossible to restrain somebody with a knife because that never happens. That's why knifepoint rapes are unknown in the history of humanity.

Also, Meredith, having been taught kung fu, could easily have kicked ass. She would have spun Guede around over her head and thrown him right out of the broken window (well, unless he bounced off the shutter).

Too bad she hadn't been taught not to date a dirtbag who hangs around with criminals. Now that would have been some good self defense.

 

[snook1]

Looks to me like he's on the ledge at 1:47. Without using the bars.

This.

It's so obvious that the access to the window without using the bars is more than comfortable. I honestly can't believe when people are questioning it, even after viewing this short video.

 

[Grinder]

Bill\Grinder


Do either of you recall? What were the conclusions of the channel 5 programme self-defence expert used to demonstrate whether a single person could have restrained Meredith and use a knife at the same time?

They said that a single attacker was totally possible. They showed a guy overpowering a victim IIRC.

But what does it matter as it wasn't viewed by the court

 

[souldonut]

I remind you that hard drives were not destroyed. The control board were damaged, and the content of the drives was recovered - except Knox's (which is theoretically recoverable, but worthless).

Since Mignini's prosecution is a luminescent beacon of truth and transparency, I am sure it was their team of experts who revealed that the cartoon show Naruto started playing at 9:26pm (near T.O.D. in a murder case), right? This certainly doesn't support an inculpatory narrative, and could even be used to construct an alibi (heaven forbid).

I think the key lesson that the prosecution and Carabinieri should take from this case, is that in order to vindictively prosecute innocent people, they *really* need to learn better hard-drive destroying techniques that actually damage the recording surfaces. But only do this after you recover data that suits your narrative, is consistent with it, or even better: is not inconsistent with it. Destroying the control circuitry (which even still does require some focused effort) is clearly insufficient -- maybe someone will get fired for not completely doing their job.

I know it's been rehashed a million times, but I can't resist: I wonder if accidental computer equipment destruction during forensics investigation, by computer experts, is a world wide phenomena or if there really are any other reported examples.

-sd

 

[Grinder]

This.

It's so obvious that the access to the window without using the bars is more than comfortable. I honestly can't believe when people are questioning it, even after viewing this short video.

Perhaps if you actually read what was being argued you wouldn't put up a straw man if that was addressed to the people here rather than the court.

It was Bill that contended that the bars made it harder, even though the climber said it didn't matter. No one in this discussion here has maintained that the window wouldn't be easy to get into.

I'm not aware that the Florentine prosecutor has made much of the climbing difficulty. In fact, it would appear that he has seen it.

I do wonder why the lawyer didn't show a 2 minute video. He could have at least tried and it would have brought much more attention to it. I could see the TV broadcast saying the judge wouldn't allow this video while showing it.

 

[davefoc]

They said that a single attacker was totally possible. They showed a guy overpowering a victim IIRC.

But what does it matter as it wasn't viewed by the court

What I'd like to see is the people that push this multiple attacker theory be given an opportunity to fend off an attack from an individual that was proportionately as much stronger and larger than them as Guede was to Kercher.

I think some of these people have Charlie's Angels fantasies floating in their heads. In real life a strong large man can kick Drew Barrymore's butt. That reality might not make for good movies but that is the reality that Kercher faced.

Once more in this case there is evidence that is interpreted through a confirmation bias filter. That there are a lot of contusion wounds on Kercher can easily be seen as the result of a single attacker because she was able to maneuver as she attempted to fend him off which led to Guede grabbing her in multiple locations as he attempted to overwhelm her. If there had been multiple attackers they could have quickly grabbed her and completely immobilized her. This kind of attack likely would have produced less not more contusion wounds on Kercher.

Anybody that has been on a wrestling team and that has experimented with two on one attacks is well aware of this phenomena. An attack by multiple attackers is enough to completely overwhelm an individual very quickly when the strength and size of the attackers is not substantially less than the victim.

 

[Bill Williams]

Bill\Grinder


Do either of you recall? What were the conclusions of the channel 5 programme self-defence expert used to demonstrate whether a single person could have restrained Meredith and use a knife at the same time?

They said that a single attacker was totally possible. They showed a guy overpowering a victim IIRC.

But what does it matter as it wasn't viewed by the court

Nearly all the experts Massei heard also said that a single attacker is totally possible, to explain the bruises and wounds, as well as the scenario.

I am not sure if CoulsdonUK is raising the issue of Meredith achieving an orange belt in martial arts... but these belts at that level are awarded mainly to reward persistence, not necessarily merit. True, there can be some truly gifted martial artists who rise through the ranks, but that belt is the third level, and only the second level that has much merit associated with it.

The first few years that I've seen of this training, is to train how to flee... not how to fight. The first few years also concentrate on how to fall, so that a rapid return to one's feet is possible... usually this involves hours and hours of rolls, all with the purpose of making sure the soles of one's feet are on the mat.

My own experience is that it takes until the blue or brown level when this becomes instinctual. During a mixed belt tournament, I remember clearly the first time a kid was knocked over - totally without thinking he rolled, placed his feet properly and sprung up to a standing position. He was a brown belt IIRC.

The discipline I have seen the most leaves the "disarming of an attacker with a knife," to the senior black belts. And even those are in well structured simulations with a rubber knife. Still, they are a sight to behold! I love the bit where the defender politely returns the knife to the attacker as if saying, "Let's do that again!"

So, CoulsdonUK, you may not have been raising this issue. I'm afraid it is simply not arguable, though - an orange belt would have been no match for a reasonably athletic person with a knife. Especially someone who also had a weight advantage in a fairly restricted space. "Restraining" the victim would not have been an issue for a single attacker.... with a knife. The are few, if any "experts" you see this as an issue in this case....

 

[Dan O.]

This is what I thought. So it is impossible to know a priori how precise your estimate is going to be.

But since this is an exponential curve you do know that about every hour you wait the error can double.

 

[andreajo]

Nearly all the experts Massei heard also said that a single attacker is totally possible, to explain the bruises and wounds, as well as the scenario.

I am not sure if CoulsdonUK is raising the issue of Meredith achieving an orange belt in martial arts... but these belts are awarded mainly to reward persistence, not necessarily merit. True, there can be some truly gifted martial artists who rise through the ranks, but that belt is the third level, ad only the second level that has much merit associated with it.

The first few years that I've seen of this training, is to train how to flee... not how to fight. The first few years also concentrate on how to fall, so that a rapid return to one's feet is possible... usually this involves hours and hours of rolls, all with the purpose of making sure the soles of one's feet are on the mat.

My own experience is that it takes until the blue or brown level when this becomes instinctual. During a mixed belt tournament, I remember clearly the first time a kid was knocked over - totally without thinking he rolled, placed his feet properly and sprung up to a standing position. He was a brown belt IIRC.

The discipline I have seen the most leaves the "disarming of an attacker with a knife," to the senior black belts. And even those are in well structured simulations with a rubber knife. Still, they are a sight to behold! I love the bit where the defender politely returns the knife to the attacker as if saying, "Let's do that again!"

So, CoulsdonUK, you may not have been raising this issue. I'm afraid it is simply not arguable, though - an orange belt would have been no match for a reasonably athletic person with a knife. Especially someone who also had a weight advantage in a fairly restricted space. "Restraining" the victim would not have been an issue for a single attacker.... with a knife. The are few, if any "experts" you see this as an issue in this case....

The karate orange belt does not mean much at all. I trained karate with some ladies who could likely have handed Rudy his own behind, knife or not, but these were third dans and up who had trained for years, had natural ability, and were in current top tournament form. The wisdom is that when you get your black belt, you are ready to begin learning something.

Also, karate isn't grappling. At a beginner level, it won't help you much if a big guy grabs you.

 

[Katody Matrass]

He isn't even close to being in - his waist is below the sill. There is nothing in the video that makes it appear that the bars are an impediment. NOTHING.

The bars are not blocking him from climbing in? I guess we are on different planets.

 

[Planigale]

What I'd like to see is the people that push this multiple attacker theory be given an opportunity to fend off an attack from an individual that was proportionately as much stronger and larger than them as Guede was to Kercher.

I think some of these people have Charlie's Angels fantasies floating in their heads. In real life a strong large man can kick Drew Barrymore's butt. That reality might not make for good movies but that is the reality that Kercher faced.

Once more in this case there is evidence that is interpreted through a confirmation bias filter. That there are a lot of contusion wounds on Kercher can easily be seen as the result of a single attacker because she was able to maneuver as she attempted to fend him off which led to Guede grabbing her in multiple locations as he attempted to overwhelm her. If there had been multiple attackers they could have quickly grabbed her and completely immobilized her. This kind of attack likely would have produced less not more contusion wounds on Kercher.

Anybody that has been on a wrestling team and that has experimented with two on one attacks is well aware of this phenomena. An attack by multiple attackers is enough to completely overwhelm an individual very quickly when the strength and size of the attackers is not substantially less than the victim.

A sad consequence of being a London resident is having been the attempted victim of a knifepoint mugging. Much to my embarrassment the mugger was about 12 and smaller than me (if possible); actually there were two. Having failed to lure me off the main street by offering me cannabis he then pulled a small knife on me. Sadly I could not do a Crocodile Dundee as unlike AK (allegedly) I do not keep a kitchen knife in my hand bag. Smaller he may have been but I wasn't going to argue with a knife. If anyone is interested in the outcome I ******* ran for it. Weapons trump size.

 

[Diocletus]

The karate orange belt does not mean much at all. I trained karate with some ladies who could likely have handed Rudy his own behind, knife or not, but these were third dans and up who had trained for years, had natural ability, and were in current top tournament form. The wisdom is that when you get your black belt, you are ready to begin learning something.

Also, karate isn't grappling. At a beginner level, it won't help you much if a big guy grabs you.

The best defense would have been to keep the bad guy out of the apartment. You know, by not having a housemate/boyfriend who invites criminals to stay over, and by locking the security shutters. Pretty basic stuff, and you don't need a black belt to accomplish it.

 

[davefoc]

A sad consequence of being a London resident is having been the attempted victim of a knifepoint mugging. Much to my embarrassment the mugger was about 12 and smaller than me (if possible); actually there were two. Having failed to lure me off the main street by offering me cannabis he then pulled a small knife on me. Sadly I could not do a Crocodile Dundee as unlike AK (allegedly) I do not keep a kitchen knife in my hand bag. Smaller he may have been but I wasn't going to argue with a knife. If anyone is interested in the outcome I ******* ran for it. Weapons trump size.

My guess is that in the case of Kercher, Guede overwhelmed her with his strength and size advantage and then killed her with a knife that he was carrying.

I think this because if he had attacked her directly with the knife I believe there would have been deep slashing wounds and Kercher would have show substantial defensive wounds.

Alternatively if he had threatened Kercher with the knife Kercher may not have resisted at all in which case I would not have expected the number of contusions that I understand Kercher had.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

I think they said that it would be impossible to restrain somebody with a knife because that never happens. That's why knifepoint rapes are unknown in the history of humanity.

Also, Meredith, having been taught kung fu, could easily have kicked ass. She would have spun Guede around over her head and thrown him right out of the broken window (well, unless he bounced off the shutter).

Too bad she hadn't been taught not to date a dirtbag who hangs around with criminals. Now that would have been some good self defense.

Attending karate classes and getting a couple of belts when she was kid would have meant absolutely nothing several years later, one has to continually train, physical conditioning and have regular kumite’s (fighting), one can only be regarded as an expert at Sandan level (3rd Dan), this is level one can be called a Sensei (instructor) and that takes many years of training.

That being said maybe I am George Bush like misremembering, but my recollection was it would have been very difficult but not impossible to restrain and use a knife, but the lack of defences wounds suggested that Meredith was being restrained.

I do accept that a rock climbing enthusiast did easily climbing up to Filomena’s window, I also accept the conclusions of the channel 5 shows self-defence expert.

They said that a single attacker was totally possible. They showed a guy overpowering a victim IIRC.

But what does it matter as it wasn't viewed by the court

Going back as far as the SeattlePI blog days I have been disappointed that none of the defence teams have used any of the arguments or factoids posted on the net, I keep thinking there will be a Perry Mason or a Quency moment in court. Still I have no idea what the verdict will be.

 

[Grinder]

The lawyers even make the point of asking if the climb would be as possible without bars. They don't ask if the bars make it harder. Obviously the bars make it much, much harder to enter the room. But not to climbing which was the contention.

The bars are not blocking him from climbing in? I guess we are on different planets.

There was nothing showing that the bars were an impediment to CLIMBING up on the sill. Of course the bars were an impediment to getting in the window, but that wasn't the issue.

I had made it clear that the bars made it much, much harder to enter the room in an earlier post.

 

[Grinder]

That being said maybe I am George Bush like misremembering, but my recollection was it would have been very difficult but not impossible to restrain and use a knife, but the lack of defences wounds suggested that Meredith was being restrained.

I thought she had multiple wounds. Were they all offensive ones?

Going back as far as the SeattlePI blog days I have been disappointed that none of the defence teams have used any of the arguments or factoids posted on the net, I keep thinking there will be a Perry Mason or a Quency moment in court. Still I have no idea what the verdict will be.

I hope you meant to say facts and not factoids as factoids are not true but specious or spurious.

I too keep waiting but it doesn't seem to be part of the Italian legal culture. Why wouldn't Maori have shown the video after repeating a prosecution contention of how difficult the climb would have been?

 

[NancyS]

I thought an orange belt was a bit rubbish - I'm sure my 6 year old niece is an orange belt

There are so many ridiculous double standards in this case though
Guede is not strong enough to overpower a small woman on his own - and a small woman with a child's karate experience needs three people to overpower her

Cannabis turns you into a violent killer - heroin makes you a reliable witness

If Amanda or Raffaele can't recall minor details or get confused over times it proves they are lying - yet if a prosecution witness gets confused it makes them more believable as nobody will remember all the details

When Amanda takes 18 mins to phone the polices it means she must have something to hide - when it takes prosecution witnesses over a year to come forward it makes them more reliable

I don't know how you are supposed to fight this much deliberate idiocy

 

[Bill Williams]

That being said maybe I am George Bush like misremembering, but my recollection was it would have been very difficult but not impossible to restrain and use a knife, but the lack of defences wounds suggested that Meredith was being restrained.

I do accept that a rock climbing enthusiast did easily climbing up to Filomena’s window, I also accept the conclusions of the channel 5 shows self-defence expert.

AFAIK the explanation for "lack of defensive wounds" has other possibilities than being restrained. There is also a strategy of compliance.... the horrible thing about this is one has about 1/2 a second to come up with a strategy, and if this is the first time one has faced this..... well, you get the drift. It's just that the equation lack-of-defensive-wounds=being-restrained is not necessarily so

Going back as far as the SeattlePI blog days I have been disappointed that none of the defence teams have used any of the arguments or factoids posted on the net, I keep thinking there will be a Perry Mason or a Quency moment in court. Still I have no idea what the verdict will be.

I think they'll be convicted... and it will be on the basis of what Cassazione in effect ordered the Nencini court to fins as factual - my reading of Italian law is that this oversteps Cassazione's authority.

Otherwise, this third trial has heard two bits of "hard evidence", both settled in favour of the defence. Go figure. Also, the lack of defence protest is that those lawyers know that they risk losing their liberty if they call it as the actually see it.

 

[Diocletus]

Attending karate classes and getting a couple of belts when she was kid would have meant absolutely nothing several years later, one has to continually train, physical conditioning and have regular kumite’s (fighting), one can only be regarded as an expert at Sandan level (3rd Dan), this is level one can be called a Sensei (instructor) and that takes many years of training.

That being said maybe I am George Bush like misremembering, but my recollection was it would have been very difficult but not impossible to restrain and use a knife, but the lack of defences wounds suggested that Meredith was being restrained.

I do accept that a rock climbing enthusiast did easily climbing up to Filomena’s window, I also accept the conclusions of the channel 5 shows self-defence expert.

It's a false equivalency, though. We can objectively see the guy climb up the wall. The self-defense guy can't really surprise, threaten, rape and kill the actress. It's not a snuff film.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

I thought an orange belt was a bit rubbish - I'm sure my 6 year old niece is an orange belt

There are so many ridiculous double standards in this case though
Guede is not strong enough to overpower a small woman on his own - and a small woman with a child's karate experience needs three people to overpower her

Cannabis turns you into a violent killer - heroin makes you a reliable witness

If Amanda or Raffaele can't recall minor details or get confused over times it proves they are lying - yet if a prosecution witness gets confused it makes them more believable as nobody will remember all the details

When Amanda takes 18 mins to phone the polices it means she must have something to hide - when it takes prosecution witnesses over a year to come forward it makes them more reliable

I don't know how you are supposed to fight this much deliberate idiocy

According to the channel 5 show Meredith didn’t have any defensives wounds this was the conclusion of the shows experts. By the way the following week the same show concluded that JFK was shot accidently by one of the secret service agents in the follow up car.

Facts\factoids whatever; Italian court procedure doesn’t seem to allow those kinds of definitive moments we have seen on TV over the years.