Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[macdoc]

In simplest form Lennart

The AGW signal overlays natural cycles in the ocean atmosphere like NAO, PDO , ENSO.

The ocean represents the vast bulk of the warming, the atmosphere very little by comparison.

It would be like trying to monitor your core body temp from the temperature of your little finger - not the best approach for a reliable assessment over time.

These decadal and less cycles like La Nina and El Nino affect local climates and can lower or raise the global atmosphere temperatures as less or more heat is absorbed.

So while the atmospheric slow down occurred ( certainly did not stop as 9 of the warmest years on record occurred in the last decade ) the rate of climb slowed.
There is also a global dimming factor from S02 which does impact atmosphere and by reducing sunlight cools the ocean surface.

But it's the ocean itself where the major CO2 signal is....no pause there, in fact an increase - that is immensely more indicative as to heat water takes far more...astounding amounts that it beggars the imagination that we as humans could raise the temperature of the oceans.

But the leverage is there.

So the ocean temp actually increased over the time period of the purported pause.

and at various depths

More energy in the system, wilder weather.....interesting times.

 

[aleCcowaN]

The NCDC dataset, under those conditions, shows a value of 0.036ºC/decade.

Thank you for that figure.

Not really sure about that. There's a whole lot of the NH that has been very warm this Winter, so the anomaly in Dec might be above the trendline.

HadSST3 (sea surface temperature) global value for December was 0.352°C, below November's 0.424°C. HadCRUT3's for November was 0.556°C so you may be right about the new dot being above the trendline.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Deniers lucked out with a hiatus decade early on but those halcyon days are gone now. Even without an El Nino the trend is inexorably grinding them down.

Don't say anything, as these darn denielists might be lucky enough to have another Tambora event.

By the way, I've just estimated the ENSO3.4 for yesterday and it's about -0.4, way up from the minimum of almost -1.0 of 7 or 8 days ago. This'll be an interesting year. Mark my words, but if an El Niño event starts later this year, denialist will attribute it to a peak in sunspots to be seen maybe next February or March.

 

[macdoc]

Damn right the NH is warmer in some regions...the pictures here are remarkable..

What has happened to Siberia? Russian region famous for being cold experiences freak warm weather in December for first time in living memory

In some parts of the normally-frozen region there is barely any snow at all
Temperatures often fall to as low as between -30C and -40C in December
But in some regions they are hovering well above freezing and it's raining
PUBLISHED: 20:45 GMT, 18 December 2013 | UPDATED: 22:59 GMT, 18 December 2013

It is famous for being one of the coldest, most inhospitable places on earth.
But after weeks of the warmest winter weather in living memory there's something peculiarly absent in many parts of Siberia this December - snow.

At this time of year the harsh east Russian region is normally covered in a thick layer of the white stuff with temperatures plummeting to as low as -40C.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ecember-time-living-memory.html#ixzz2r3iISBQW

 

[aleCcowaN]

http://www.thelocal.se/20140119/temperatures-hit-41-in-swedish-cold-snap

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/oddnews...a-bunch-of-fish-swimming-in-it-232504960.html

I'm going to call it the macdoc effect.

Do you think that Sweden and Norway are the size of Rhode Island and Connecticut? You're kinda replying a comment about frost free mornings in Virginia with news showing frozen lakes in Vermont one week later.

It's as simple as you'll never learn.

 

[Jules Galen]

The ocean represents the vast bulk of the warming, the atmosphere very little by comparison.

You're preachin' to the choir, Champ. If your trying to make excuses for the lack of Global Warming, you can stop - and especially stop pretending that Global Warming is "Hiding" in the deep oceans.

Listen Champ....ya' blew it when ya' took a side instead of waiting to see what was really happening. The Global Warming predictions are wrong and have been for two decades and, as a result, you are now making excuses to justify the fact that you "Drank the Koolaide.

Be a man. Give it up.

 

[DC]

You're preachin' to the choir, Champ. If your trying to make excuses for the lack of Global Warming, you can stop - and especially stop pretending that Global Warming is "Hiding" in the deep oceans.

Listen Champ....ya' blew it when ya' took a side instead of waiting to see what was really happening. The Global Warming predictions are wrong and have been for two decades and, as a result, you are now making excuses to justify the fact that you "Drank the Koolaide.

Be a man. Give it up.

the predictions have been spot on, there is sadly enough no lack of global warming at all, that is wishfull thinking.

with such ignorant anti scientific posts you may score big time on YT and WUWT, but here, most users are not so ignorant to fall for the denier lies.

several posts on the last 2 pages deal with the myth of allegedl lack of global warming, you did not adress any of those, you just pop in and repeat the debunked claim.....
what a joke.

 

[macdoc]

AM
Go away and fly helicopters - we tried with you.....no denting a cemented in place mindset.

I do hope you understand more about helicopter flying than you've demonstrated here on climate science.

What a ridiculous statement - your distain for science and that includes those on this board who have taken the time to show where you are wrong is insulting.
Grade 9 shows I guess.

I've been following climate science before you were born and long before there was near term concern over it. Go peddle your crap here.
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9775014#post9775014

You will find fellow travellers with their loonie toon conspiracies who will welcome you with open arms and you can discuss the denier nonsense to your hearts content. You don't listen, you don't understand....you have no legit argument to make or science backing....
If you do? let us know.
This last piece of crap post certainly showed you are not in the least interested in the science and the unfolding consequences.

I just hope for your passengers and employers sake you do a better job understanding flight.

I guess the pilots I hang with run more to the educated types.

here ya go....

Explain it. 3,000 Argo floats world wide.
Where is the additional heat coming from .

 

[Lennart Hyland]

In simplest form Lennart

The AGW signal overlays natural cycles in the ocean atmosphere like NAO, PDO , ENSO.

The ocean represents the vast bulk of the warming, the atmosphere very little by comparison.

It would be like trying to monitor your core body temp from the temperature of your little finger - not the best approach for a reliable assessment over time.

These decadal and less cycles like La Nina and El Nino affect local climates and can lower or raise the global atmosphere temperatures as less or more heat is absorbed.

So while the atmospheric slow down occurred ( certainly did not stop as 9 of the warmest years on record occurred in the last decade ) the rate of climb slowed.
There is also a global dimming factor from S02 which does impact atmosphere and by reducing sunlight cools the ocean surface.

But it's the ocean itself where the major CO2 signal is....no pause there, in fact an increase - that is immensely more indicative as to heat water takes far more...astounding amounts that it beggars the imagination that we as humans could raise the temperature of the oceans.

But the leverage is there.

So the ocean temp actually increased over the time period of the purported pause.

[qimg]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qVJmzQUsUmY/UslmNaaIIsI/AAAAAAAADiM/Gia5kYvJr-8/s566/heat_content2000m.png[/qimg]

and at various depths

[qimg]https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-i1SXEppgHWE/UslmNU5CloI/AAAAAAAADiQ/_tb30kMZbaQ/s640/BTK13Fig1.jpg[/qimg]

More energy in the system, wilder weather.....interesting times.

Yes I agree on this. Probably the ocean heating could be a explanation why the surface temperature has stalled. But it wouldnt so interesting that the last 9 top high temperatures records has been the last decade since the temperature stalled at a high point? Oh well I just realised that if the temp has stalled since 1997 there wouldnt be any more records since that...yeez this is complex

 

[aleCcowaN]

You're preachin' to the choir, Champ. If your trying to make excuses for the lack of Global Warming, you can stop - and especially stop pretending that Global Warming is "Hiding" in the deep oceans.

Listen Champ....ya' blew it when ya' took a side instead of waiting to see what was really happening. The Global Warming predictions are wrong and have been for two decades and, as a result, you are now making excuses to justify the fact that you "Drank the Koolaide.

Be a man. Give it up.

What was that? the AGW version of the "homies in the Projects are pissed off"? You are making a fool of yourself in such a way that it even make others hurt.

What makes you think that if you put together a lot of wrongs and wrap them with the manners of a bunch of roughs you are going to be other than deadly wrong?

Your fan-o'-Mets-hates-Yankees style, already verging hooliganism, is not going to win you any match. I only can praise your candour and ingenuity of thinking that if you put your hates on the table that is gonna make the debate clearer. Regrettably it only means there's hate on your part to cover up for the lack of knowledge.

By the way, in your paragraph, the part about the "hiding in the oceans" lets slip you don't have the faintest idea what heat is! That is not a minor consideration in a debate about global warming, isn't it?

 

[macdoc]

Lennart

Yes it is but 1998 is both an outlier due to a strong El Nino and the favorite start point for the chattering classes.

Easiest way is to think in terms of total energy gain for the planet ....radiative balance.

Earth's radiation balance
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Earth's radiation balance or Earth's energy balance describes the incoming and outgoing thermal radiation. The Earth equilibrium sensitivity describes a steady state, energy balance.

Today anthropogenic perturbations are responsible for a positive radiative forcing which reduces the net longwave radiation loss out to Space, hence the radiation balance is disturbed, Earth's energy budget changes.

This doesn't occur instantaneously due to the slow response/inertia of the (cryosphere) to react to the new energy budget. The net heat flux is buffered primarily in the Ocean, until a new energy balance, the equilibrium state is established between in-and outgoing radiative forcing and climate response.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_radiation_balance

This is a decent illustration tho unfortunately does not show the ocean situation clearly as that is the main interface for converting incoming solar to IR, It does tho show the other drivers such as aerosols and volcanoes and in a simple way clouds plus persistence....not bad.

Whether that manifests as warmer atmosphere temps, mass loss of glaciers or a warming ocean is immaterial.

HOW it manifests and what the impact will be on weather and hydrology and even glaciers is astonishingly complex.

What happens at the air, ocean, ice interfaces is

 

[Lennart Hyland]

Very interesting! Thanks for the good posts and clearing somethings up

 

[macdoc]

Alec

. Regrettably it only means there's hate on your part to cover up for the lack of knowledge.

By the way, in your paragraph, the part about the "hiding in the oceans" lets slip you don't have the faintest idea what heat is! That is not a minor consideration in a debate about global warming, isn't it?

to his credit - he did claim a Grade 9 education so I guess we should not be surprised....plus his comments elsewhere about scientists...
Bit of frog and scorpion in it.

••
L

Very interesting! Thanks for the good posts and clearing somethings up

It all helps make it clearer in my own mind and I don't always have some of the scientists around to fill in the details. Illustrations really help but we would never have this conversation if CO2 were not odorless and colorless.

Were we spewing out noxious rotten egg fumes and greenish black coils of pollution.....it would be dealt with with much greater expediency.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Yes I agree on this. Probably the ocean heating could be a explanation why the surface temperature has stalled. But it wouldnt so interesting that the last 9 top high temperatures records has been the last decade since the temperature stalled at a high point? Oh well I just realised that if the temp has stalled since 1997 there wouldnt be any more records since that...yeez this is complex

Why don't you take a look at my explanation in http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9769487&postcount=2623 and tell me if that helps you in any way. I'd like to improve it.

By the way, let me tell you that much of the hiatus parlance comes from exploits of perceptual defects. For instance, in the following figure, take just 5 seconds to watch it and say what value do you think the average is?

 

[uke2se]

to his credit - he did claim a Grade 9 education so I guess we should not be surprised....plus his comments elsewhere about scientists...
Bit of frog and scorpion in it.

I think you're thinking of a different denier.

 

[Lennart Hyland]

Why don't you take a look at my explanation in http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9769487&postcount=2623 and tell me if that helps you in any way. I'd like to improve it.

By the way, let me tell you that much of the hiatus parlance comes from exploits of perceptual defects. For instance, in the following figure, take just 5 seconds to watch it and say what value do you think the average is?

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_3332552decd3044753.jpg[/qimg]

Thanks very nice post! So one of the reason why the deniers keep on claiming the pause or hiatus, is because they look at graphs like the one I post above? That shows the monthly average.

And for the average value of your graph...oh dear I'm bad at this..0.8 maybe?

 

[aleCcowaN]

Alec


to his credit - he did claim a Grade 9 education so I guess we should not be surprised....plus his comments elsewhere about scientists...
Bit of frog and scorpion in it.

Well, someone who barely manage arithmetic together with working concepts of elementary physics like heat, certainly shouldn't dare to hold any opinion about AGW in one or other direction. But I suppose that being part of their own Hollywood script is too tempting, I mean, conspiracies and hidden interest, good guys and bad guys, and a happy ending that never comes but having good prizes for them if they persevere and suffer a little bit for the sake of suspense. That's the essence of epistemological hedonism applied to AGW in a context of little specific education (it doesn't matter they have a phD in literature, it's just the same).

These featherless bipeds commonly and collectively called "humans" never cease to amaze me. Some of them mix up the right to held an opinion with some right for their opinions to be the truth in a fair share of cases. Then, it comes the "scientists can't be right most of the time" BS. They also think in some Aristotelian way that they are well equipped to perceive the truths of nature through their senses and by the sole fact of being humans provided with some elastic concepts called mind and soul.

Some of them, with little education an narrow vision constantly lose their temper and claim "it's simpler than that, you're lost in details" and then jump to a capricious personal conclusion that is validated because they have experience or they have seen world, or any similar crap.

 

[macdoc]

uke - his distain of scientists is clear - I posted this previously as illustration of the mindset. Most pilots I flew with are well informed and educated with a large degree of common sense and understanding of how the world works.....guess there are always exceptions.

Re: Treasure Hunters -v- Archaeologists 11 Months ago Karma: 1
At one time the scientists were trying to stop the meteorite hunters from selling and making a profit on their finds.

Then it was pointed out that 99% of the discovered meteorites were from private individuals and without them the scientists would have very few to study.

Archeologists and scientists can be a weird and elite group . They sometimes express the same traits as dictators and totalitarians. They think we are unwashed peasants.
Just to tickle your fancy ..... remember that most meteorites are worth a lot more $$ than gold per ounce .

Hope you find one.
Arnold Martin

http://treasureworks.com/forums/11-general-discussion/11203-treasure-hunters-v-archaeologists#11243

 

[Jules Galen]

Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2007/01/08/01291.html

What....4.5 Billion People still alive and not harmed by Global Warming?

Well...back to more excuses.

 

[macdoc]

Just released

NOAA: World in 2013 was 4th hottest on record (Update)
2 hours ago by Seth Borenstein
NOAA: World in 2013 was 4th hottest on record

Last year was tied for the fourth warmest year on record around the world. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric …more
Last year was tied for the fourth warmest year on record around the world.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday released its global temperature figures for 2013. The average world temperature was 58.12 degrees (14.52 Celsius) tying with 2003 for the fourth warmest since 1880.
NASA, which calculates records in a different manner, said Tuesday that 2013 was the seventh warmest on record, with an average temperature of 58.3 degrees (14.6 Celsius).
Both agencies said nine of the 10th warmest years on record have happened in the 21st century. The hottest year was 2010.

A global insurance firm says there were 41 billion-dollar weather disasters last year. Unlike 2012, most of the heat and disasters were outside the United States.

more
http://phys.org/news/2014-01-noaa-world-4th-hottest.html

some "pause"