Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

Status
Not open for further replies.
What I find odd is that the denier crowd does not understand that the climate science community welcomes any mechanism that buys time to to start curbing CO2 emissions.

A Maunder Minimum might just be a lucky break..just as being in the cooling portion of the orbital driver is.

18 January 2014
Is our Sun falling silent?
I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything quite like this," says Richard Harrison, head of space physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire.
Click to expand...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806
 
!Kaggen
This bbc video has been going around recently.
http://youtu.be/lw75-7QC1cA

Is this legit?
How will this impact AGW?
Click to expand...

read the article - regional and well below the GHG signal ....might buy some time so in that respect it is a lucky break.

Quote:
18 January 2014
Is our Sun falling silent?
I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything quite like this," says Richard Harrison, head of space physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806
Click to expand...

•••

Do you have science to discuss IceBear or just tripe from retired weather forecasters paid to be a nuisance by fossil fuel companies?
 
!Kaggen said:
This bbc video has been going around recently.
http://youtu.be/lw75-7QC1cA

Is this legit?
How will this impact AGW?
Click to expand...

Yes it is correct and, hopefully, the effect it should have on AGW is to kill it stone dead. Russian scientists are claiming that we're entering a second Little Ice Age:

http://www.thegwpf.org/russian-scientist-warns-earth-heading-ice-age/

http://thenewamerican.com/tech/envi...le-as-data-and-experts-suggest-global-cooling

All of the signs are there. Hundred year low for solar activity, coldest temperature ever measured on Earth three or four weeks ago (-140F in Antarctica in summer), ice and snow in Israel and Egypt, avg temp in the US 17F etc.

Assuming this to be the case, windmills and solar panels will not save anybody. We need to be building the new generation of reactors (thorium) ASAP.
 
Assuming this to be the case,
Click to expand...
It's not.

I see you glean the information on your planet from Faux News.

Australia just had it's hottest year on record.
Sweden's winter temps were well above average while the eastern US had a short taste of winter.
California meanwhile has declared a drought emergency.
And the ocean temperatures has you on ignore as anyone else with a shred of common sense will.
Heat moving into the deeper ocean is a good thing - buys us some time.

heat_content2000m.png


Does not change reality of AGW.

Tell us.....is the head of Exxon wrong or you?

Exxon Chief Acknowledges Global Warming From Fossils Fuels, Insists Humans Will Adapt
0
Posted June 29, 2012 by Common Sense Canadian in Climate Change
Read this Canadian Press story, via TheTyee.ca, on Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson’s recent statement covering global warming, fracking, and other controversial aspects of his company’s business. (June 28, 2012)
Click to expand...

http://commonsensecanadian.ca/exxon...from-fossils-fuels-insists-humans-will-adapt/

what about the rest of the oil sands companies..

Oil sands pollution: Why industry wants the carbon tax Harper hates ...
business.financialpost.com/.../why-the-oil-sands-industry-wants-the-carb...‎
Feb 1, 2013 - Why the oil sands industry wants the carbon tax that Stephen Harper .... At the same time, Canadian politicians are trying to thwart EU plans to ..
Click to expand...

if even the fossil fuel companies acknowledge it......did you not get the memo?
 
Speaking of quotes...
Click to expand...
His snark is directly above mine...it's obvious...I tend not to waste time on the likes of Icebear.
•••

Alec not sure what you mean with double peak....sort of a flat top with a couple of flurries of activity?
I thought there was a larger event going on internally in the sun. Have to chase the info.
 
macdoc said:
Alec not sure what you mean with double peak....sort of a flat top with a couple of flurries of activity?
Click to expand...

Something about that, I mean -or better, they mean- the smoothed current maximum, 66.9 spots for February 2012 (the blue curve) is probably going to reach a second peak in 3 or 4 months, so a value around 70 is expected for September or October 2013, meaning the peak of 85-90 spots originally predicted in 2007 to happen late in 2012 -low prediction- wouldn't happen yet we'll have a notch in the top of the curve and two peaks.

The predictive analysis for next solar cycle (25) are not so clear with a maximum ranging from 50 to 170 spots.
 
Argo is a system for observing temperature, salinity, and currents in the Earth's oceans which has been operational since the early 2000s. The real-time data it provides is used in climate and oceanographic research.[1][2] A special research interest is to quantify the ocean heat content (OHC).
Argo consists of a fleet of approximately 8200 [[1]] small (20-30 kg) drifting robotic probes (profiling floats) deployed worldwide. Profiling floats are commonly used in oceanography and become "Argo floats" only when they are deployed in conformity with the Argo data policy. In most cases probes drift at a depth of 1000 metres (the so-called parking depth) and, every 10 days, by changing their buoyancy, dive to a depth of 2000 metres and then move to the sea-surface, measuring conductivity and temperature profiles as well as pressure. From these, salinity and density can be calculated.
Click to expand...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

Neat trick measuring sea level from 1,000 m down.

I'd suggest this is what they are measuring which is a very clear indication that AGW has not in the least "paused" in the entire....it has slowed down a bit in the atmosphere and accelerated in the ocean.....hmm I think even the most climate science challenged might be able to connect those dots.

heat_content2000m.png
 
Last edited:
macdoc said:
Tell us Icebear in your own words what you think a "little ice age" is.
Did you actually read the entire the article?
Click to expand...

Real ice ages had cosmic causes, and there were decades or centuries worth of warning. We're not in any danger of that.

The Little Ice Age and other similar shifts amount to centuries-long fluctuations in the output of a star and there was little if any warning.

There is a paradigm problem here. If our sun actually were some sort of a 4B year old thermonuclear furnace there would be no reason to think it would heat up and cool off periodically, but we know that it does.

Best analysis so far is that stars are plasma physics phenomena which behave like lightning rods as focal points of cosmic discharge and that, as they pass through regions of space with lesser or greater electrical potential difference from themselves, they heat up or cool off.

http://electric-cosmos.org/sun.htm
 
icebear said:
http:
//www.climategate.com
/wp-content/uploads
/argo-dynamic-height-2004-
2010-480x311.jpg
Click to expand...

Oh, wow! A figure in a denialist website where the time range was selected and the variable is blurred :rolleyes: That certainly settles it all! :D

Surely not open plotting device could be selected as that didn't lead to the expected conclusions.

Tell us, icebear, what does "dynamic heights" mean? and why they reach a peak in May and a low in October? I think you can't answer, that's why you thought that skit of a figure support any of your pleasure-giving notions.

By the way, are you going to hotlink -a violation of the MA, by the way- any trash you find in denialists websites? There are thousands and thousands of non compostable pieces of tosh you can link here in a spamming fashion, yet that doesn't make "your" case any true. Least of all when you have thousands of denialist figures and articles and you can't select one that stands two seconds.

TO EVERYONE:

A problem I gave my to students in 2009: Take a column of sea water. Its base is 1 km2 and its height 5 km. Take a typical ocean temperature profile for that column -take this one is you like, the results are similar no matter which normal curve you choose-. You have to add 400 TJ of thermal energy to that water yet you have to get the ocean level going down at least 1 mm -1 cm would be nicer-. Move heat, new and old, up and down, as you see fits, but you can't come up with an unnatural temperature profile.

Search the www or ask the teacher any data you may need necessary to solve the problem. Don't ask what kind data you need to find -if you do that it means you're not able to solve the problem anyway-.
 
macdoc said:
Do we have any relationship between spots and solar radiance levels?? Can any of the satellites actually detect a meaningful change?
Click to expand...

Define meaningful. The change is certainly meaningful enough to be detected: some 0.15% variation in solar output, all frequencies, up to 7% in high frequencies. The variation of total output is enough to provoke changes of 0.06 to 0.08°C in the planet's mean temperature so, when combined with other developments, it can contribute to hid a warming trend the same way it also can contribute to exaggerate a warming trend in certain periods.

The paraphernalia of wishful thinking about the changes in high energy frequencies affecting deeply the climate system have led to mostly inconclusive studies. A prudent assessment on the state of the knowledge would say that high energy rays might affect cloud formation and other parts of the system in ways unknown but still the effect would be very small, in the order of magnitude of the total output change, at most.
 
IB
The Little Ice Age and other similar shifts amount to centuries-long fluctuations in the output of a star and there was little if any warning.
Click to expand...

Leaving out the rest of the woo.

At what scale of global temperature change do you think this "centuries long shift" belongs.? If you don't know...ask Alec.
 
Remember this animation showing aerosols for Aug2007-Apr2008, including the late stages of the eruption of Lascar and other minor episodes in the Patagonian Andes, and one volcanic eruption in the Comores.



You may see the plumes of man-made aerosols in mainland China. Since the period of this animation, Chinese use of coal has grown 50% to 4.05 GT in 2012 -estimations of 4.2 to 4.4 for 2013, which means more than 13 GT of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, more than 1 ppm of concentration if none of it were absorbed by the oceans-.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom