Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[Trakar]

I do accept the scientific consensus on anthropogenic warming and climate change. But I have to say, if you need a shrink-wrap EULA for your thread you have a serious problem somewhere.

It is the nature of the beast and those who dream of slaying it. Sans the clear-cut thread topic and strict enforcement, the general topic (climate change) quickly attracts those who would fill this thread with off-topic rants and arguments to get it merged into the general climate change thread.

 

[macdoc]

In general, a "warmer arctic" is a relative term. The key issue is that it is the average gradient between the equator and poles that drive the currents. Its all about distributing the energy. As the poles are warming so much more than the equator, the gradient is become lower, so the velocity of the jet streams should be dropping (on average). Of course, with seasons and the roaming wander path, there will be variations on local/regional scales. It is more the path and the nature of the kinks in the atmospheric currents that create the weather expression extremes you are talking about,...or, at the least, this is my understanding

That would be the theory however with the Arctic dipole the Arctic polar region does not represent the coldest portion of the northern hemisphere any more but rather the continental regions further south are the coldest and where the gradients would be highest.

The gradient between New York City and Montreal....only a few hundred KM was 21C to -7C in this latest round of rough weather.

With warmer air flows out of the gulf hitting these intense interior highs PLUS a wetter atmosphere that's a serious recipe for wild weather.

We are in an ENSO neutral position I afaik but La Nina would make the snow storms even worse.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Niña

Instead of the high pressure cold zones being concentrated at the pole - as it is in Antarctica....the stalled highs on the continents are bringing the fronts into conflict further south.

If as you say the jet stream is driven by the gradient then a more powerful jet stream would seem to be the outcome and that IS what we are seeing just now.

This is one of the clearest snap shots of the dipole

with the intense cold on the continents and the warmth furth north

This was in March this year

Huge patches of warm air over the Arctic
Over the past month or so, huge patches with temperature anomalies of over 20 degrees Celsius have been forming over the Arctic.

The three images below show such patches stretch out from Svalbard to Novaya Zemlya (top), north of Eastern Siberia (middle) and over West Greenland and Baffin Bay (bottom).

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2013/03/huge-patches-of-warm-air-over-the-arctic.html

It's a good look over of the phenomena including an animation and the gradients are hilarious...( black humour sort )

If the dipole is the norm rather than the exception and it is generating more intense storms then policy for dealing with that needs to follow....increase in grid maintenance, repair, ice removal, snow removal, emergency responses and perhaps as we've seen in Britain flood defences.

 

[Trakar]

is water vapor a GHG?

Generally, the one with the largest greenhouse effect, at least on this planet.

(sorry, it had been five hours, and I couldn't hold it in any longer!)

 

[ideogram]

I do find the psychology of climate denial quite fascinating. You realize the research is telling us that education and discussing facts is not an effective motivator.

 

[Trakar]

I do find the psychology of climate denial quite fascinating. You realize the research is telling us that education and discussing facts is not an effective motivator.

Well, it is telling us that traditional means of informing and educating through providing raw facts without a personal and social context, leads to mixed results. Individualized framing is necessary to prevent people from throwing up defenses to protect their preferred world view and deal with the dissonance between what they accustomed to and want to do versus what considered rationality tells them that they should do.

 

[Arnold Martin]

I do find the psychology of climate denial quite fascinating. You realize the research is telling us that education and discussing facts is not an effective motivator.

The psychological mindset of the denier was orchestrated when (some) politicians and (some) scientists told us the Armageddon story that the earth was cooking and melting and drowning.

They started it.

We (deniers) have simply been cautious not to believe it at first glance

20 years later we have not been convinced our caution was misplaced.

20 years from now I expect our caution will be validated

Thank you

 

[ideogram]

Well, it is telling us that traditional means of informing and educating through providing raw facts without a personal and social context, leads to mixed results. Individualized framing is necessary to prevent people from throwing up defenses to protect their preferred world view and deal with the dissonance between what they accustomed to and want to do versus what considered rationality tells them that they should do.

You are getting into a gray area. I will just be blunt. Lying and emotional manipulation work. That is why politicians do it. Unfortunately these are anathema to science. Politics is the art of getting people to do what you want. Scientists are out of their field here.

 

[Trakar]

That would be the theory however with the Arctic dipole the Arctic polar region does not represent the coldest portion of the northern hemisphere any more but rather the continental regions further south are the coldest and where the gradients would be highest...

In such an anomaly the local gradient would certainly drive a local extreme situation. I know of no study indicating that such a situation is stable or anything more than a seasonal/transitional anomaly. If you are aware of information suggesting that it is a stable shift to a new paradigm, I would be interested in looking at that information.

 

[macdoc]

AM

We (deniers) have simply been cautious not to believe it at first glance

20 years later we have not been convinced our caution was misplaced.

20 years from now I expect our caution will be validated

The head of Exxon thinks it's a serious threat ....who's wrong ...you or him??
You think you know better than all the science societies on the planet and the AGU
AND the heads of the fossil fuel companies who acknowledge it.

That even read popsci articles about near term armageddon ( did not come from the science community ) begs the question about your knowledge base.

That you continue to deny the overwhelming evidence simply says you are living up to your slef proclaimed grade 9 education level

in other words...you have not a clue and I'm surprised they allow you around dangerous equipment given your poor judgement you have confirmed here on how the world works

You do need some bsic physics to fly....did you do it by rote?

 

[macdoc]

Yeah it's been seen more frequently ( stalled highs ) and prompted the NOAA article.

http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/warmarctic.html

and first came to my attention in the Arctic Report card a couple years back.

In the recent years the cold blasts deep into Europe and the dipole in March this year all seem to point to great frequency of the weather pattern.

Given the warming up there I don't see it going back to the tight polar high.

This is from the NOAA report and the one I posted earlier for 2013 is even more marked.

 

[aleCcowaN]

The psychological mindset of the denier was orchestrated when (some) politicians and (some) scientists told us the Armageddon story that the earth was cooking and melting and drowning.

They started it.

We (deniers) have simply been cautious not to believe it at first glance

20 years later we have not been convinced our caution was misplaced.

20 years from now I expect our caution will be validated

Thank you

Trying to visit any fallacy available?

Now you're writing a story that adapts to your mindset (the original cause of it is something created ex-post that may be used to explain the consequences). And the story boils down to "we denialists deny because of them, the bad guys".

The story, even being false, would be nice if not because of the fact that that "we" -which is basically "just you"- means you consider yourself to have a modicum of intelligence and education to evaluate the global climate. That's the pride and arrogance that comes with every unyielding denialist.

You're welcome.

 

[lionking]

The psychological mindset of the denier was orchestrated when (some) politicians and (some) scientists told us the Armageddon story that the earth was cooking and melting and drowning.

They started it.

We (deniers) have simply been cautious not to believe it at first glance

20 years later we have not been convinced our caution was misplaced.

20 years from now I expect our caution will be validated

Thank you

Firstly, that you have not been convinced in the face of overwhelming evidence is telling.

Secondly, you expect governments to act on an expectation (more a wild hope) 20 years in the future? Really?

 

[Trakar]

The psychological mindset of the denier was orchestrated when (some) politicians and (some) scientists told us the Armageddon story that the earth was cooking and melting and drowning.

They started it.

We (deniers) have simply been cautious not to believe it at first glance

20 years later we have not been convinced our caution was misplaced.

20 years from now I expect our caution will be validated

Thank you

You illustrate my point quite well.

 

[lomiller]

I am only in Churchill for the Polar Bear tourist season ... which unfortunately ended much too early because everything froze over way ahead of schedule.

I, on the other hand, was born in Churchill and lived in Northern Manitoba until I tuned 18. If you think this years freeze up was early than clearly there is something wrong because 30 years ago this would have been called a normal, average winter.

 

[Trakar]

You are getting into a gray area. I will just be blunt. Lying and emotional manipulation work. That is why politicians do it. Unfortunately these are anathema to science. Politics is the art of getting people to do what you want. Scientists are out of their field here.

Lying, about major issues, ultimately fails virtually without exception.

It is not gray, the issues are just not simple, nor simplistic. Complex issues require a diverse and persistent approach with respect to both education and resolution.

 

[ideogram]

Lying, about major issues, ultimately fails virtually without exception.

This is purely a statement of faith.

It is not gray, the issues are just not simple, nor simplistic. Complex issues require a diverse and persistent approach with respect to both education and resolution.

The issues are not simple. But the explanations must be. Crossing the gap always requires some form of deception.

 

[Trakar]

Yeah it's been seen more frequently ( stalled highs ) and prompted the NOAA article.
(...)
[qimg]http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/images/arctic_atmosphere_december_300.png[/qimg]

This is from the NOAA report and the one I posted earlier for 2013 is even more marked.

Just looking at the depiction, it looks to me like we might be losing the northern highs altogether, which could be a signal that the northern jet streams are fading. Rather than a global current, it may be breaking down into regional circulations. Perhaps somewhat analogous to the speculations about what happens when the structures like the Gulf Stream breakdown into regional circulation patterns.

 

[Trakar]

...The issues are not simple. But the explanations must be. Crossing the gap always requires some form of deception.

Now that, is a statement of faith!

Did you actually read any of the papers I linked earlier?

 

[Red Baron Farms]

What causes climate change is completely irrelevant!
Who causes it is completely irrelevant!
If it's happening at one rate as opposed to another rate is irrelevant!
But this fact is completely indisputable, "Human beings are the only thing on the planet that can change it's behavior, thus it is our responsibility to do so, if there is anything the human race can to to improve the situation we are obliged to do it".
We need to stop arguing about the "peace conference" seating arrangement and get our arses to work.

Exactly.

Climate change connection -Grasslands

Less than 1% of Manitoba’s original 6,000 square kilometers of tall-grass prairie remain.

Tallgrass Prairies May Provide Early Warning Of Climate Change

only an estimated 5 percent of the original tallgrass prairie in the United States exists today

When you consider that land use changes have made that 95-99 % into cropland, which is a net emissions source... When you consider that unlike forests which are very nearly carbon neutral, grasslands are a net carbon sink... It quickly becomes apparent that changing agriculture is the top way to begin to....

get our arses to work

 

[macdoc]

Don't think so ....the highs over the continent are getting deeper leading to some record low temps over the last few years.
Now I could agree that it might be regionalizing but that would seem to have the affect of making the just stream more erratic in it's path...

They call for a weakening here as well
http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2012/12/polar-jet-stream-appears-hugely-deformed.html

but this last storm was enhanced by a jet stream moving at 300 mph - more than twice the normal 110-140 mph.

Article here on the anomalous atmospheric circulation affecting Greenland.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/20...changes-that-may-be-driven-by-global-warming/


This is a very good analysis.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ter-of-extreme-storms-and-cold-air-outbreaks/

snip

Bottom Line: Arctic warming, regardless of causative mechanism (warm season diminishing sea ice, radiative processes, fall to winter Siberian snow, etc.) must be coupled with the corresponding wind field (thermal wind relationship), which in turn plays an important role in weather events. In this investigation of before and after turn of the century winters, this warming signal is manifest in the form of an unmistakable –NAO signal. More specifically, the before and after winters show a shift in the polar jet southward with a zone of weaker zonal winds to the north at mid-to-high latitudes. This is recognized as conducive to development of high amplitude, slow moving, features (e.g., blocking) favorable for significant to extreme weather events.

Lots going on

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/climate-change-the-jet-stream