remirol
Senior Wrangler
- Joined
- Jun 8, 2006
- Messages
- 8,089
You'd almost think that there's a small group of people *cough* developers *cough* holding the bulk of BTC out there.
I wonder if this situation has ever been reflected in the past somewhere? Consider that with BTC we have:
1. A finite supply of a commodity
2. $X tied up in the speculation market for that commodity at $Y per unit
3. A significant amount of that commodity that was created and/or purchased for Y=0 (mining time early on)
4. No real use for the commodity itself other than speculation
#3 is the one that occurs to me as the most likely place to put a thumb on the scale; when those miners decide to drop even part (100 BTC) of their hoards and cash in, what impact is that likely to have on the market? Right now people purchase BTC because they believe that demand will rise and they'll be able to sell it for more later, but the only way to make demand for BTC go up is through artificial scarcity creating a "reduction" in supply. Yet the amount of BTC is steadily increasing; mining isn't a major factor anymore, but the early Bitwhales sitting on huge stacks of BTC certainly are.
I would not personally make any sort of investment in a commodity where I knew a huge amount of that commodity was waiting quietly to be dumped onto the market; it's just too much of a gamble that you'll get out before the dump starts. That combined with the very real possibility of Bitcoin being regulated out of existence and the technology co-opted to work with existing currencies would be quite a large deterrent.