[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Jabba said:
Toon,
- These paragraphs seem loaded with meaning I'm missing. The following are two more of my missing links.
1) Do you accept that the "level" of emergence necessary in order to result in what we call "consciousness" would "smack" of "magic"?
2) Wouldn't real "magic" be unexplainable by definition?
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I've never seen anyone so desperate to continue a conversation about a raft of phenomena that don't exist with someone who adamantly refuses to offer cogent explanations even of those phenomena which he believes do exist.
 
Akhenaten said:
I've never seen anyone so desperate to continue a conversation about a raft of phenomena that don't exist with someone who adamantly refuses to offer cogent explanations even of those phenomena which he believes do exist.
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And since immortality obviously does not exist why use maths to try and prove it? I use the word maths in its loosest possible sense.
 
Akhenaten said:
I've never seen anyone so desperate to continue a conversation about a raft of phenomena that don't exist with someone who adamantly refuses to offer cogent explanations even of those phenomena which he believes do exist.
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Take a look at this thread and tell me what in this thread might inspire me to go down that rabbit hole.

Remember, we're working with a limited sliver of sentience here.
 
Pixel42 said:
Nope, that doesn't make any sense at all.
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The dictionary gets it.

When I say "odds" I usually mean one of the highlighted definitions. And the clincher is when I add "to one":

Full Definition of ODDS

1
a archaic : inequalities
b obsolete : degree of unlikeness
2
a : an amount by which one thing exceeds or falls short of another <won the election by considerable odds>
b (1) : a difference favoring one of two opposed things <overwhelming odds> (2) : a difference in terms of advantage or disadvantage <what's the odds, if thinking so makes them happy — Flora Thompson>
c (1) : the probability that one thing is so or will happen rather than another : chances <the odds are against it> (2) : the ratio of the probability of one event to that of an alternative event3
: disagreement, variance —usually used with at <faculty and administration often are at odds on everything — W. E. Brock b1930>
4
a : special favor : partiality
b : an allowance granted by one making a bet to one accepting the bet and designed to equalize the chances favoring one of the bettorsc : the ratio between the amount to be paid off for a winning bet and the amount of the bet

So. The "odds" might be, for example, 4, expressed as a ratio to 1. Hence, "odds to one". Not rocket science.
 
dafydd said:
Don a fake shroud before you enter that fantasy world.
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Which fantasy world?

Are you talking about the fantasy world in which things that happen can happen,

or the fantasy world in which things can ludicrously improbably happen, but only once, which somehow means we shouldn't be surprised when it happens, because the probability that it happened is 1?
 
Toontown said:
Don't offer to absolutely prove anything in the first place. In doing so, you create a bone of contention which opponents jaws can be inextricably locked on...
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Toon,
- I never claimed that I could (absolutely) prove anything -- I claimed that I could essentially prove something.
 
Toontown said:
So. The "odds" might be, for example, 4, expressed as a ratio to 1. Hence, "odds to one". Not rocket science.
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Like I said, I was able to work out what you meant. The phrase "odds to one" is still not one most people would use or immediately understand.
 
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jt512 said:
...Furthermore, if your hypotheses concern the lives of all humans, then how can you justify only considering as data the likelihood of only your life?
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Jay,
- Trying to make sure that I'm reading you right...
- I think that your basic question is, 'What sets me apart from everyone else?'.
 
Pixel42 said:
Like I said, I was able to work out what you meant. The phrase "odds to one" is still not one most people would use or immediately understand.
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Toon,
- A rare occurrence -- I agree with Pixel.
 
Jabba said:
Toon,
- I never claimed that I could (absolutely) prove anything -- I claimed that I could essentially prove something.
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I understand. I saw and noted the first time you said "essentially". Unfortunately, you followed with "prove", and that's the bone of contention which will remain latched onto for the duration of your attempts to essentially prove immortality.
 
Akhenaten said:
Immortality?

Anyone?
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I'll take two, please.

What with Jabba's fatal immortality, and jt512 & Pixel42 at odds with Toontown (see what I did there?), this thread keeps reminding me of that Father Ted sketchlet, 'Small vs Faraway':
 
Pixel42 said:
Like I said, I was able to work out what you meant. The phrase "odds to one" is still not one most people would use or immediately understand.
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Yes; in my experience, it's usually expressed as the odds for (in favour of) or odds against some event. These can be expressed as 1:n, n:1, or m:n. I suppose the middle one would be 'odds to one'...
 
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dlorde said:
Yes; in my experience, it's usually expressed as the odds for (in favour of) or odds against some event. These can be expressed as 1:n, n:1, or m:n. I suppose the middle one would be 'odds to one'...
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Yeah. Who would've thunk "odds" could mean something other than p/(1-p)?

I will confess that my dealings with the field of statistics have been mostly limited to adapting various BASIC algorithms to my self-designed statistical analysis/prediction programs and a bit of fruit fly heredity hypothesis testing. My programs are long gone, having been destroyed in a sabotage of my computer.

I took it as a Sign. Many have been disturbed by my attempts to apply probabilistic solutions in my own disturbing ways. Some have gone to great lengths to stop me. Heavily outnumbered, I ceased and desisted.

But that doesn't mean there is only 1 legitimate meaning for "odds". Going donkey over that for 2 pages was just stupid.
 
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Pixel42 said:
Are you sure you wouldn't rather be watching one of Professor Kagan's lectures? :)
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Watched one, skipped over all the soul lectures, got halfway through one of the others. Still haven't found anything surprising. Pretty mundane stuff.
 
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