Sebastianus
Scholar
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2013
- Messages
- 89
Unfortunately, Nick has totally failed to understand my position, leading him to expend considerable energy on totally useless polemics. He writes:
That would indeed be sloppy reasoning. Unfortunate for Nick's little polemic, that was not the argument I put forth. Let's go through this yet again, so that even those who struggle to understand simple English can grasp it. The syllogism implicit in the context in which the mention of witchcraft confessions occurred was this:
Matthew Ellard has attempted to refute a technical argument by pointing to two confessions
His argument would only work if confessions were always accurate.
But confessions are not always accurate - consider the example of witchcraft.
Therefore Matthew Ellard's argument is incorrect.
In response to the observation that Nick's "exponential curve" argument (which reasons from the large number of confessions to the truth of those confessions) also "proves" that witchcraft was real, Nick states that
Indeed, witchcraft as a natural phenomenon doesn't exist. Similarly, cremation in the manner alleged to have taken place in the holocaust doesn't exist, at least not as a natural phenomenon. As the noted skeptic Reginald Scott observed,
Holocaust cremation claims are entirely contrary to nature, and include Jews being cremated with some 0.4 kg of wood a piece, when the Australians require 250 kg to cremate each shorn sheep in a mass burn. That's not to mention Jews being cremated at ten times the speed and in one tenth the space that is required in real cases of carcass incineration. Confessions to such things can only come from such persons as are illuded. Any honest investigator must conclude that
Moving on. In developing his argument from multiple witnesses, Nick proves himself ignorant even the most rudimentary facts about probability:
Oh, dear. Nick, you have no business ever using numbers. Your calculation assumes that the events are independent. You cannot simply multiply probabilities unless you know that the events are independent. (Let me help you avoid embarrassing yourself again by pointing out that independent has a precise meaning here, which you clearly do not know. If you attempt to respond with a polemic about "scripting" based on an interpretation of the meaning of the work independent in common speech, you will only reveal yet again that you are unfamiliar with even the most basic ideas of probability and statistics.)
Nick continues on his "many confessions" theme:
Well, there are supposed to have been hundreds of false confessions to the Lindbergh baby kidnapping and to the Black Dahlia murder. There is also an interesting story mentioned by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn:
There is also the case of the dozens of US POW's in the Korean war who confessed to the use of biological weapons - an admission generally believed to be false.
I should also mention what a detective stated concerning the case of Norfolk four:
The important point is that Ford was stopped - by external forces, not by an inability to obtain more confessions. The three further sailors who were also interrogated report that they were close to confessing, according to Richard Leo. Had it been possible in that case (as it was after the war) to arrange for the indefinite detention of as many sailors as the investigators wanted, there's no saying how many confessions they might have obtained.
Equating witchcraft trials with Nazi war crimes investigations, which is what you started off by doing, is sloppy reasoning. Your syllogism went
women falsely confessed under interrogation to being witches
Nazi war crimes suspects were interrogated
Suspects under interrogation may falsely confess
Therefore, Nazi war crimes suspects did falsely confess
Therefore, Nazi war crimes suspects were like women in witchcraft trials
That would indeed be sloppy reasoning. Unfortunate for Nick's little polemic, that was not the argument I put forth. Let's go through this yet again, so that even those who struggle to understand simple English can grasp it. The syllogism implicit in the context in which the mention of witchcraft confessions occurred was this:
Matthew Ellard has attempted to refute a technical argument by pointing to two confessions
His argument would only work if confessions were always accurate.
But confessions are not always accurate - consider the example of witchcraft.
Therefore Matthew Ellard's argument is incorrect.
In response to the observation that Nick's "exponential curve" argument (which reasons from the large number of confessions to the truth of those confessions) also "proves" that witchcraft was real, Nick states that
No, it doesn't, because witchcraft as a natural phenomenon doesn't exist.
Indeed, witchcraft as a natural phenomenon doesn't exist. Similarly, cremation in the manner alleged to have taken place in the holocaust doesn't exist, at least not as a natural phenomenon. As the noted skeptic Reginald Scott observed,
The confession of such persons as are illuded must needs be erronious, and therefore is not to be admitted
Holocaust cremation claims are entirely contrary to nature, and include Jews being cremated with some 0.4 kg of wood a piece, when the Australians require 250 kg to cremate each shorn sheep in a mass burn. That's not to mention Jews being cremated at ten times the speed and in one tenth the space that is required in real cases of carcass incineration. Confessions to such things can only come from such persons as are illuded. Any honest investigator must conclude that
these things are opposite both to lawe and nature, and therfore it followeth not; Bicause these [Nazis] confesse so, Ergo it is so. For the confession differeth from the act, or from the possibilitie of the act. And whatsoever is contrarie to nature faileth in his principles, and therefore is naturallie impossible.
Moving on. In developing his argument from multiple witnesses, Nick proves himself ignorant even the most rudimentary facts about probability:
There is a chance that any one single confession of guilt may be false. This would normally be reduced if two confessions emerge, corroborating each other. However, it is known that interrogators have been able to elicit mutually incriminating false confessions, in rare cases. So the probability of false confessions decreases and never entirely diminishes. In simple terms, if there is a hypothetical 50/50 chance of a false confession with a single suspect, then we would decrease this to 75/25 with two statements, and so on.
Oh, dear. Nick, you have no business ever using numbers. Your calculation assumes that the events are independent. You cannot simply multiply probabilities unless you know that the events are independent. (Let me help you avoid embarrassing yourself again by pointing out that independent has a precise meaning here, which you clearly do not know. If you attempt to respond with a polemic about "scripting" based on an interpretation of the meaning of the work independent in common speech, you will only reveal yet again that you are unfamiliar with even the most basic ideas of probability and statistics.)
Nick continues on his "many confessions" theme:
The number of cases where more than six individuals confessed falsely to the same crime is what exactly?
Well, there are supposed to have been hundreds of false confessions to the Lindbergh baby kidnapping and to the Black Dahlia murder. There is also an interesting story mentioned by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn:
there were about fifty Lithuanians in the group of Romualdas Skyrius, the son of Pranus. In 1945 they were charged with posting anti-Soviet leaflets. Because there weren't enough prisons in Lithuania at the time, they sent them to a camp near Velsk in Archangel Province. There some were tortured and others simply couldn't endure the double regime of work plus interrogation, with the result that all fifty, to the very last one, confessed. After a short time news came from Lithuania that the real culprits responsible for the leaflets had been discovered, and none of the first group had been involved at all!
There is also the case of the dozens of US POW's in the Korean war who confessed to the use of biological weapons - an admission generally believed to be false.
I should also mention what a detective stated concerning the case of Norfolk four:
Thank God [Ford] was stopped. He might have arrested the whole Navy by the time he was finished.
The important point is that Ford was stopped - by external forces, not by an inability to obtain more confessions. The three further sailors who were also interrogated report that they were close to confessing, according to Richard Leo. Had it been possible in that case (as it was after the war) to arrange for the indefinite detention of as many sailors as the investigators wanted, there's no saying how many confessions they might have obtained.