Continuation Part 5: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Chris_Halkides]

the sensitivities of tests for blood

Chris though I mostly defer to you on DNA and luminol, I believe you are not looking at the possibility that it was long ago prints made in extremely diluted blood. The luminol test being much more sensitive than TMB would show such diluted blood but the TMB wouldn't.

The article I quote a time back made the point that blood doesn't go away unless scrubbed with something strong like a detergent. It is possible that someone a year before or longer had something bleeding a bit in the shower and walked bare footed afterwards. The spots can't be dated and don't seem IIRC to fit any pattern that makes sense vis-a-vis the murder.

Did all the prints test positive for Meredith's DNA?

No: some had mixed DNA; some had no DNA; and the prints in Amanda's room had her DNA. I agree that the prints might be very old, and I agree that the prints don't tell a story that makes sense with respect to the murder. They are all of one chirality, and they don't form a trail.

This week a new post went up at View from Wilmington that catalogs the sensitivities of some presumptive (luminol and TMB) and confirmatory blood tests. Personally, the notion that the reason every luminol-positive area was TMB-negative is that luminol is supposedly much more sensitive than TMB has always struck me as dubious at best, for reasons laid out in another entry at the same blog.

 

[acbytesla]

Chris...scratch that link..it doesn't really provide that much detail.. But definitely Google "Peter Hamkin" there are lots of articles. Alternatively you could Google the victims's name to find what you are looking for; Anna Lisa Vincentini and Stefano Poli.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

An Imprecise Science

I'm looking..but it's like look for a needle in a haystack since I didn't save the article. I'm trying to think of good search terms to find it. This one by one looking through IIP isn't working.

OK..I didn't find the article...but.. I just Googled Peter Hamkin" instead and there are lots of hits for this story including this fairly detailed story of this event titled An Imprecise Science.. http://cbanational.rogers.dgtlpub.com/2011/2011-03-31/pdf/An_imprecise_science.pdf

I found another link to An Imprecise Science, and posted two quotes from it yesterday. It is a good article, although I would chose a different word from "imprecise." I tried various Google searches, and I posted about three links earlier today. I think that the take-home message for this thread is that sometimes people overweight DNA evidence.

 

[Dan O.]

I've transcribed page 1 of the DNA test results and let Google translate it.

[1] (it)

PREMESSA: la numerazione seguita in questo indice dei reperti analizzasti segue
una logica operativa-funzionale, non di valore progressivo crescente: o reperti sono
raggruppati per ambiente e luogo di ritrovamento e/o repertazione.
Per ciascuno di essi viene indicato il verbale di reputazione e/o sequestro, la pagina
dell'allegato fotografico (A.F.) e della relazione tecnica (R.) ove sono presenti le
immagini fotografiche dei reperti ed i relativi risultati analitici.

INDICE DEI REPERTI
Reperti e campionature acquisite nel corso del sopralluogo eseguito nella casa di Via
della Pergola nr.7 (appartamenti piano terra, piano seminterrato e zone limitrofe) nei giorni
del 02-03-04-05 Novembre 2007 (verbale di sopralluogo. repertazione e sequestro datato
07/11/2007 e relativa errata-corrige datata 16/11/2007)

Campionature effettuate nel bagno piccolo. Appartamento piano seminterrato
* Rep.00 - Nr.1 Campionatura di presunta sostanza ematica prelevata dal margine
inferiore esterno della finestra (già Rep.0)>pagg.13 A.F./18 R.;
* Rep.06 - Nr.3 Campionature di gocciolature di presunta sostanza ematica prelevate
dal piatto doccia (gia Rep.6) >pagg.13 A.F./23 R;

Camera biletto addicente al soggiorno con angolo cottura e ad una seconda camera
biletto - Appartamento piano seminterrato
* Reo.01 - Nr.2 Campionature di presunta sostanza ematica presunta sostanza ematica
prelevate dal materasso posto a destra, al di sotto del piumone beige (già Rep.2/A-
B-C) >paff.15 A.F./20 R.;

Camera monopetto posta di fronte al soggiorno con angolo cottura - Appartamento
piano seminterrato
* Rep.03 - Nr.2 Campionature di presunto liquido biologico prelevate dal pavimento
nei pressi della porta-finestra della camera (già Rep.3) >non analizzato

Campionature biologiche e reperti prelevati dal salone - Piano seminterrato
* Rep.04 - Fodera di cuscino di colore blu rinvenuta sul pavimento, interessata da
tracci di presunta sostanza ematica (già Rep.4) >pagg. 15 A.F./21 R.;
* Rep.05 - Nr.4 Campionature di presunta sostanza ematica prelevate dalla stoffa del
divano (già Rep.5/D dal bracciolo, Rel. 5/E-F-G dalla seduta) >pagg 16 A.F./22 R;​

[1] (eng)

INTRODUCTION: The numbering followed in this index of exhibits analizzasti follows
an operational logic-functional, non-progressive value increasing: or exhibits are
grouped by environment and place of occurrence and / or reputation.
***For each of them is referred to the minutes of reputation and / or seizure, the page
Annex Gallery (AF) and a technical report (R.) where there are the
photographic images of the finds and the related analytical results.

***TABLE OF EXHIBITS
***Exhibits and samples acquired during the survey carried out in the house of Via
della Pergola No. 7 (ground floor apartments, basement and surrounding areas) on days
of 02-03-04-05 November 2007 (inspection report. repertazione and seizure dated
07/11/2007 and its errata dated 16/11/2007)

Samples taken in the small bathroom. Apartment basement
* Rep.00 - Nr.1 ​​Sample of presumed blood substance taken from the margin
outer bottom of the window (already Rep.0)> pagg.13 AF/18 R.;
* Rep.06 - Nr.3 Samples of blood spattering of alleged substance taken
from the shower tray (already Rep.6)> pagg.13 A.F./23 R;

Biletto addicente room to the living room with kitchenette and a second room
biletto - Apartment basement
* Reo.01 - Nr.2 Samples of presumed blood substance presumed blood substance
taken from the mattress to the right, below the duvet beige (already Rep.2/A-
B-C)> paff.15 A.F./20 R.;

Room breasted placed in front of living room with kitchenette - Apartment
basement
* Rep.03 - Nr.2 Samples of alleged biological fluid taken from the floor
near the door of the room (already Rep.3)> not analyzed

Biological samples and specimens taken from the living room - Basement
* Rep.04 - cushion cover blue color was found on the floor, affected by
trace of presumed blood substance (already Rep.4)> p. 15 A.F./21 R.;
* Rep.05 - No.4 Samples of presumed blood substance taken from the fabric of
sofa (already Rep.5 / D from the armrest, Rel 5/EFG from sitting)> p R 16 at f/22;​

 

[acbytesla]

I found another link to An Imprecise Science, and posted two quotes from it yesterday. It is a good article, although I would chose a different word from "imprecise." I tried various Google searches, and I posted about three links earlier today. I think that the take-home message for this thread is that sometimes people overweight DNA evidence.

DNA evidence has always frightened me. I see so much potential for abuse. Here is something we can't see and you almost need a PHD to understand and people's lives are at stake. It's one thing if you have the money to pay for the experts to pick it apart, but what about those defendants that cannot afford a proper defense?

It's all about trusting the lab. But labs are run by people. And people are fallible and can be influenced and corrupted.

This case has really come down to one thing, Stefanoni. Was she incompetent? Competent and just made a mistake? Or is she corrupt? The refusal to provide the EDF is inexcusable to me and since the State backed her up. It is saying to the citizens..."trust us". That's fine and dandy to accept if you and your loved ones are not affected, but if you or your daughter is in jeopardy of their freedom, you would say "Hell No!!!

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

See the link here for more on a mistaken DNA match of some kind or another. There is not much on what exactly went wrong, but these DNA cold hits are problematic IMO.
EDT
The problem may be the use of partial profiles, which are not as discriminating as full profiles. See also this comment.

Sure. If the cops have a suspect in mind, and they get a partial profile match with a 10^6 probability, that's good evidence.

If it's a cold hit out of a database with 2 x 10^6 profiles, it could be meaningless. But if the guy doesn't have an alibi, and he might conceivably have done it, the prosecutor might try to make a case with no other evidence, a la Leiterman.

 

[JREF2010]

.
I gather this is when the police 'guessed' the password to Raffaele's computer. I also assume this is before they attempted to clone the hard drive. My question remains, how really, did they know his password? And why are they lying about it?
.

according to Raffaeles book, after taking him to the apartment and then back to the poliuce station, he gave them the password.

 

[Antony]

This has fallen into my hands. Bob Graham turns out to be a Daily Mail journalist. I am told the article was written in 2010. Some randomly chosen quotes:





Re: the fire in the old lady's apartment:



The Milan arrest:



Etc.

This is all riveting and fits with everything we know about the case, including the way in which news has been manipulated by the prosecution - but can't really be used in the debate as there is no verifiable source. Can you enlarge on how you obtained it?

 

[anglolawyer]

This is all riveting and fits with everything we know about the case, including the way in which news has been manipulated by the prosecution - but can't really be used in the debate as there is no verifiable source. Can you enlarge on how you obtained it?

Another regular poster in this thread sent it to me. I am trying to track down Bob Graham to authenticate it.

 

[codyjuneau]

according to Raffaeles book, after taking him to the apartment and then back to the poliuce station, he gave them the password.

.
I am confused. Grinder quoted Massei as saying the police identified the password through intuition (post 6022, http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=256373&page=151)

This was done and the machine was started by inserting the password ‚palmiottosollecito‛, obtained by combining the family names ‚Palmiotto‛ and ‚Sollecito‛ of the mother and father of the accused. (The laptop password was identified through intuition, being otherwise unknown to the Postal Police.)

.

 

[Dan O.]

.
I am confused. Grinder quoted Massei as saying the police identified the password through intuition (post 6022, http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=256373&page=151)

Of course we are talking about the postal police who are experts at breaking things. It's no surprise that they would be able to crack a password just by thinking about it.

But I suspect that they are lying. The computers were handed over to them the day after Raffaele was in court for the explicit task of revealing the password to his computer and ILE had already accessed that computer November 5th.

 

[Grinder]

Of course we are talking about the postal police who are experts at breaking things. It's no surprise that they would be able to crack a password just by thinking about it.

But I suspect that they are lying. The computers were handed over to them the day after Raffaele was in court for the explicit task of revealing the password to his computer and ILE had already accessed that computer November 5th.

So my guess is that you are assuming that his computer was on and didn't need a password when the police reset access information while he was being interrogated in the police station. Is that it?

My computer, not an apple, times out and requires reentry of the PW.

Raffaele seems to be quite the space case and may not have fully reviewed his own book from excerpts I've seen posted here and there. There is the responding to emails segment.

I don't see how this issue will play in the coming appeal but others here are superior in computing knowledge by miles.

 

[Grinder]

Another regular poster in this thread sent it to me. I am trying to track down Bob Graham to authenticate it.

Have you checked China or Siberia yet?

I'd like to see the defense start going public early with their requests they plan to make of the new court. They should publish them in Italian and let people translate them into English.

I hope they call for international experts to review the DNA, footprints and TOD. Perhaps they should suggest teams working separately but now I'm definitely moving beyond personal knowledge of practicality.

They do this early release of specifics to make sure there is plenty of time for the Italians to respond and to make the public case early allowing it to build pressure on the court. Make the case in public that the truth needs to be pursued and after spending 180,000 on a video the system must be able to afford the expense and time to do this right. Open the knife and check for blood or DNA.

Demand reference prints from all possible. Ask that a "footprint lineup" be created with similar feet to Rudi and Raf and see if an expert could say there is a match, not compatible but a match. Do the same thing for the luminol prints.

If a cleanup is necessary for the prosecution case to make sense demand that it must be proven. If contamination can even be suggested as needing proof then an alleged cleanup needs really solid proof. Things like cleanup swirls or blotches showing up to the naked eye or after applying luminol.

The defense needs to put out a narrative of the case that the prosecution needs to make.

 

[JREF2010]

Of course we are talking about the postal police who are experts at breaking things. It's no surprise that they would be able to crack a password just by thinking about it.

But I suspect that they are lying. The computers were handed over to them the day after Raffaele was in court for the explicit task of revealing the password to his computer and ILE had already accessed that computer November 5th.

of course I see it easier to Raffaele to recall his own details better than a squad of bumbling police who have proven time and time again, they knew nothing and were like bulls in a china shop. From the ignorant ladie cop kicking the window in downstairs (instead of just using a tool to enter) is one of many examples of how the police approached this case.

in the book, Raffaele was in handcuffs and without shoes he stated, being lead to his apartment because during the interrogation he suggested the laptops could prove his alibi. He mentions them to power the pc's down before yanking the cables from the wall...but the police instead yanked the pc ac cords out and didn't even bother to close the laptop screens, they carried the laptops out with the screen lid opened, again aligning to many other sloppy approaches in handling evidence.

sloppy police work, three drives ruined without a clear explanation, I think the preponderance of evidence shows the police did a horrific sloppy job in this case.

 

[anglolawyer]

Have you checked China or Siberia yet?

I'll look there next, thanks.

I'd like to see the defense start going public early with their requests they plan to make of the new court. They should publish them in Italian and let people translate them into English.

I hope they call for international experts to review the DNA, footprints and TOD. Perhaps they should suggest teams working separately but now I'm definitely moving beyond personal knowledge of practicality.

They do this early release of specifics to make sure there is plenty of time for the Italians to respond and to make the public case early allowing it to build pressure on the court. Make the case in public that the truth needs to be pursued and after spending 180,000 on a video the system must be able to afford the expense and time to do this right. Open the knife and check for blood or DNA.

Demand reference prints from all possible. Ask that a "footprint lineup" be created with similar feet to Rudi and Raf and see if an expert could say there is a match, not compatible but a match. Do the same thing for the luminol prints.

If a cleanup is necessary for the prosecution case to make sense demand that it must be proven. If contamination can even be suggested as needing proof then an alleged cleanup needs really solid proof. Things like cleanup swirls or blotches showing up to the naked eye or after applying luminol.

The defense needs to put out a narrative of the case that the prosecution needs to make.

They could use you on the team. Your great point on how Massei amended Curatolo then the SC forgot prompts me to add the suggestion that the defence should demand what no PGP can manage, a timeline that fits the 'evidence' and makes sense.

Another random point: what osmotic principle allowed them to throw out Kokomani? Whatever it was, why doesn't it apply to other impossible evidence, like Curatolo's for example?

 

[JREF2010]

The defense needs to put out a narrative of the case that the prosecution needs to make.

off topic a little, but the financial burden is so great for a private defense to prove their innocence, when the prosecution just makes outlandish fanatical claims, like sex orgys partys....

its obvious, in a system like this many without money would be found guilty due to not having finances. At times I even think the Perugia mafia-like cops assume people cant defend themselves financially, and if they can, the prosecution will just pile up more and more charges and trials until the accused just give up by reason of being poor.

I don't understand how a system that allows trials of so many years, can be ignorant to the financial impossibilities for anyone other than extremely rich people to fairly continue.

Italy's court system has shown how it is extremely unfair it is, for the accused, from a financial perspective.

"Guilty! by reasons of not having enough money to defend yourself! 26 yrs in prison for Raffaele! for not being able to hire a defense to investigate the 500 different scenarios the Prosecution made up !"
....could this be the outcome in the end?

 

[RoseMontague]

Another regular poster in this thread sent it to me. I am trying to track down Bob Graham to authenticate it.

There are 2 versions, one was before it was published and then you have the published version (edited). The published version can be found linked at Science Spheres.

 

[RoseMontague]

There are 2 versions, one was before it was published and then you have the published version (edited). The published version can be found linked at Science Spheres.

Here it be...

http://www.sciencespheres.com/2010/04/inevitable-unexpected-and-theory-of.html

 

[Dan O.]

I don't see how this issue will play in the coming appeal but others here are superior in computing knowledge by miles.

It had no relevance in Massei's court but there it was. Of course, if Raffaele were some kind of super evil computer genius he would leave clues to make it easy by sticking a note to the bezel saying Mom+Dad so snoopy cops would break into the parts he wanted them to see and overlook the TrueCrypt(TM) volume hiding in the free space. Their ego displayed by cracking the password will prevent them from asking for access information so it eliminates the need to lie. If I were an Italian cop or prosecutor, I would be devoting all of my effort to cracking that hidden filesystem because that is where the evidence needed to break this case will be hiding.


But I'm not a cop and I'm not Italian. So I'll just waste my time documenting what can be known about this case.

I'm not some super genius that knows everything. But I do occasionally impress people by being able to pull out bits of case trivia. Having access to this indexed archive is a big part of my secret. But the archive is incomplete. There are some documents that have yet to be transcribed and translated. There are bits of trivia still to be added. Just yesterday I found another date that wasn't in my comprehensive timeline. A couple of days ago I added another entry to the Kercher Case People list.

 

[anglolawyer]

off topic a little, but the financial burden is so great for a private defense to prove their innocence, when the prosecution just makes outlandish fanatical claims, like sex orgys partys....

its obvious, in a system like this many without money would be found guilty due to not having finances. At times I even think the Perugia mafia-like cops assume people cant defend themselves financially, and if they can, the prosecution will just pile up more and more charges and trials until the accused just give up by reason of being poor.

I don't understand how a system that allows trials of so many years, can be ignorant to the financial impossibilities for anyone other than extremely rich people to fairly continue.

Italy's court system has shown how it is extremely unfair it is, for the accused, from a financial perspective.

"Guilty! by reasons of not having enough money to defend yourself! 26 yrs in prison for Raffaele! for not being able to hire a defense to investigate the 500 different scenarios the Prosecution made up !"
....could this be the outcome in the end?

I agree. And this is a massively complicated case, as is always the case when one side resorts to deliberate lies