Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

mikedenk said:
All the polling and numbers and models flying around is starting to make my head hurt.

But I will put 100% odds on this: whatever the outcome, one side is going to be in for a nasty surprise on Tuesday. Both sides seem very confident in their chances, publically anyways.
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"Publicly" is the operative word here. There's zero chance that the Romney campaign thinks the polling is "skewed" even though they have an interest in fooling people into believing that they are. Trust me, exactly no one in that campaign will be surprised on Tuesday (unless they miraculously win, then they'll poop in their magic underwear)
 
mikedenk said:
But I will put 100% odds on this: whatever the outcome, one side is going to be in for a nasty surprise on Tuesday. Both sides seem very confident in their chances, publically anyways.
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Well, if the result is in on Tuesday, then I suspect it won't be much of a surprise.

Both sides aren't equally confident. The Romney side is asserting the national polls that show a very close race (within the margins of error), even though we all know the national popular vote doesn't determine the outcome of the election. Their best spin is that it'll be really close and Romney might win.

People pointing to analysis of the polls (like Electoral College analysis) indicate that Obama has a very strong (like 70%) chance of winning.
 
I generally agree with what you're both saying.

But when I say "side", I'm not just referring to the campaigns. The prognosticators are out in full force, and I have seen several predictions of not just victory, but "landslide" from both sides. And many people making up the voting public are drawn to what they want to believe, while discounting evidence from people to whom they are ideologically opposed.
 
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mikedenk said:
I generally agree with what you're both saying.

But when I say "side", I'm not just referring to the campaigns. The prognosticators are out in full force, and I have seen several predictions of not just victory, but "landslide" from both sides.
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I've seen a number of landslide predictions for Romney, but who's predicting an Obama landslide?
 
ANTPogo said:
I've seen a number of landslide predictions for Romney, but who's predicting an Obama landslide?
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You know, I'm going to have to retract that.

There are a plenty of people, including Nate Silver, who have Obama up 60, 70, 80 points... but I wouldn't consider that a landslide. If a landslide is a victory on par with 2008 (365-173), then I don't know of anybody making that call for Obama.
 
I can see a substantial Obama victory (320+) if he nets Florida, but that's about it.

I also don't think he'll get Florida, but he'll do well in the other tossups. Won't be long now...
 
mikedenk said:
You know, I'm going to have to retract that.

There are a plenty of people, including Nate Silver, who have Obama up 60, 70, 80 points... but I wouldn't consider that a landslide. If a landslide is a victory on par with 2008 (365-173), then I don't know of anybody making that call for Obama.
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Nate in fact calculates landslide odds (right column, down a ways) and they are about 5% for Obama if I recall.
 
mikedenk said:
You know, I'm going to have to retract that.

There are a plenty of people, including Nate Silver, who have Obama up 60, 70, 80 points... but I wouldn't consider that a landslide. If a landslide is a victory on par with 2008 (365-173), then I don't know of anybody making that call for Obama.
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Nate Silver does not have "Obama up 60, 70, 80 points".

His model right now says Obama will win 303 electoral votes and 50.5% of the popular vote.
 
What terrifies me a little bit is that Silver still has the probability of a recount at about 10%. That's the last thing we need.
 
mikedenk said:
For which states? Is that the possibility of a recount in any state?
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It's defined as "one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points", and I believe that he considers a "decisive state" one that could potentially provide the decisive electoral vote like Florida did in 2000, where whichever candidate won its electoral votes would be the candidate that got over 270 to win.

Those states are listed as Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, and South Carolina.

In short, Silver appears to be saying that there's a 9.4% chance that one or more of those states will have a less than .5% margin for the victor, (presumably then sparking a recount in that state).
 
ANTPogo said:
It's defined as "one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points", and I believe that he considers a "decisive state" one that could potentially provide the decisive electoral vote like Florida did in 2000, where whichever candidate won its electoral votes would be the candidate that got over 270 to win.

Those states are listed as Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, and South Carolina.

In short, Silver appears to be saying that there's a 9.4% chance that one or more of those states will have a less than .5% margin for the victor, (presumably then sparking a recount in that state).
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Kind of weird to see Oregon on that list. I'd think it's pretty safely Obama by a decent margin.
 
Romney landslide predicted (Dick Morris)

In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.

Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?

Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.
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Gee, people are finally going to "discover" something the week before election day that hadn't been apparent for almost 4 years? :D
 
R.Mackey said:
I can see a substantial Obama victory (320+) if he nets Florida, but that's about it.

I also don't think he'll get Florida, but he'll do well in the other tossups. Won't be long now...
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Yeah, I think it's a small stretch that Obama could win FL, but it's doable. He has been polling better there in recent post-Sandy days, and now Nate Silver has it at 45% that Obama could take the state. If those polls continue to break Obama's way over the weekend, we could see that tip past the 50% mark.

The fact that we're even having this discussion about Florida is absolutely terrible news for Romney and the GOP, btw.
 
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