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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

MattusMaximus said:
RCP is smoking crack, because they also have WI, MI, and PA as "tossup" states. Yeah, just like a few weeks back when MO was a "tossup" state with Romney polling consistently ahead by 5% :rolleyes:
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Michigan not looking like a "tossup" to me. It's not "likely Obama" but it should be "leans Obama" Rasmussen has Obama up by 7. The most recent poll has Obama up by 6.
 
I think where RCP gets it wrong is by calling Ohio a tossup. Ohio has consistently been +2-3 points ahead for Obama, and the early voting ruling really hurt Romney's chances.
 
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RandFan said:
ETA: In the interest of full disclosure I should note that I don't have any money to gamble.
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Me neither. That was my original point.

I won't gamble, but I would bet on Obama at even money right now.

It's not even particularly subtle, but Brainster seems to miss the point I'm making.
 
Just to recap the thread, Rasmussen declared that Romney is more popular with likely voters six months ago in May. This is significant and important because Rasmussen was the most accurate in predicting the last Presidential election a couple of dozen hours before it happened and, thus, more dependable than other predicting models which were more accurate overall in the months preceding the election.

This is the same Rasmussen who is currently saying Obama is up 51% to Romney's 39%. They also add this bit of analysis:
Confidence in Romney has been inching up and is now at its highest level in surveys since late August. The 12-point gap between the candidates is the narrowest yet, down from 20 points just two weeks ago.
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Upchurch said:
Just to recap the thread, Rasmussen declared that Romney is more popular with likely voters six months ago in May. This is significant and important because Rasmussen was the most accurate in predicting the last Presidential election a couple of dozen hours before it happened and, thus, more dependable than other predicting models which were more accurate overall in the months preceding the election.

This is the same Rasmussen who is currently saying Obama is up 51% to Romney's 39%. They also add this bit of analysis:
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Um, you might want to read your cite. The poll was who people think will win, not who they will vote for. This is unrelated to Rasmussen's polling accuracy in 2008.
 
Conveniently, the Internet exists.

remirol said:
This assertion has been destroyed in numerous places, but because lying liars have to lie when they don't have facts, I'll just demolish it one more time. Plus it only takes like 5 minutes to do so. But just to remind you again...

2008 result: Obama +7.3
Rasmussen: Obama +6, a -1.3 point differential

The following polls were MORE accurate than Rasmussen in 2008:

RCP Average (+7.6 (+0.3))
FOX News (+7 (-0.3))
Ipsos/McClatchy (+7 (-0.3))
CNN/Opinion Research (+7 (-0.3))
IBD/Tipp (+8 (+0.7))
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (+8 (+0.7))

The following poll was EQUALLY as accurate as Rasmussen:

Pew Research (+6 (-1.3))

This puts Rasmussen in a tie for 7th most accurate. Not at all a compelling case for "accuracy", especially when you take into account their methodology flaws that persist and the horrendous 2010 performance of Rasmussen.
In addition, of the 16 "final" polls listed, Rasmussen was skewed further right than all but 2 -- both halves of the Battleground poll and Diageo. So it should be no surprise to anyone that Rasmussen effectively marks the "far right" extreme in any given set of polls.

Sourcey McSource Source

You're welcome. :D
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Okay, so Predictwise has the markets showing Obama's numbers are down and Romney's are up...

... meanwhile, Nate Silver at 538 has Obama's numbers up with Romney's down.

What the ****?! :boggled:
 
Now the Romney "spike" at Intrade makes sense!

MattusMaximus said:
Okay, so Predictwise has the markets showing Obama's numbers are down and Romney's are up...

... meanwhile, Nate Silver at 538 has Obama's numbers up with Romney's down.

What the ****?! :boggled:
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Ah, I think I see what might be happening now. It seems that there is some heavy manipulation (that is, massive betting by a lone investor) going on over at Intrade which seems to be throwing the markets out of kilter.

Source
... The betting markets can sometimes be swung — at least temporarily — by single traders who post extraordinarily large trades. That appears to have happened Tuesday morning, when a single investor spent about $17,800 on Intrade and boosted Mitt Romney’s fortunes considerably. For about six minutes.

Here’s the backstory: On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney had surged to 48 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, perhaps, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Neither. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 pushing Romney’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted about six minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are now back at around 41 percent...
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So for all the crowing by some about Romney's chances suddenly getting better, it seems that they really haven't changed that much and the market is slowly but surely correcting itself back towards the pre-debate numbers.

It's very interesting to see all of this play out. I'll give the markets another day or so to correct themselves and let the effects of this spike pass.
 
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MattusMaximus said:
It's very interesting to see all of this play out. I'll give the markets another day or so to correct themselves and let the effects of this spike pass.
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You're the one always talking about betting. Romney was as low as 33% over the course of the second debate...... and then got beat again Monday..... Now he is at over 43%..... Why not correct the markets yourself? Will you get a better price on Obama, then right now?
 
Upchurch said:
....
This is the same Rasmussen who is currently saying Obama is up 51% to Romney's 39%. They also add this bit of analysis:
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That is the exact, perfect opposite of the scientific polling that you shroud it as being.

It's posing the question to people as to who they think might win.

But, thankfully, neither your feeble misinformation or that of other propaganda sources is likely to influence the actual election much at this point.

EDIT: Never mind, I notice you acknowledge the error.

Thanks.
 
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Caper said:
You're the one always talking about betting. Romney was as low as 33% over the course of the second debate...... and then got beat again Monday..... Now he is at over 43%..... Why not correct the markets yourself? Will you get a better price on Obama, then right now?
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I've already got a $100 wager on the election, which I placed back when Romney was "surging" after the first debate. So... are you talkin' to me?! ;)
 
Btw, here's more analysis on the manipulation and sudden volatility over at Intrade:

The Romney InTrade blip
... Indeed, illiquidity seems a plausible culprit, as it usually is when something weird happens in prediction markets. Brad Plumer also added his thoughts and reminded us of the events of 2008, when an investor spent hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to push up John McCain’s perceived chance of winning. That too didn’t last, as other investors flooded the market and arbitraged away the rise in the McCain contract. ...
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Looking over at Predictwise.com, it seems that there may be something to this. Predictwise averages two prediction markets, Betfair and Intrade, for their values. Currently the Predictwise WTA average is

Obama 59.4%
Romney 40.5%

But when you break it down, we see

Intrade
Obama 55.2%
Romney 44.9%

Betfair
Obama 63.5%
Romney 36.0%

And over at 538, Nate Silver has the following WTA odds

Obama 70.3%
Romney 29.7%

Very interesting. It seems to me that some people could be trying to "rig" Intrade, as the above article suggests. I wonder how long this will go on? If enough investors with deep pockets want to, would they be able to flip Intrade to be giving contrary results with other markets and predictors?

:popcorn1
 
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