NO, but I do get to give you some kindly and gentle guidance as to whether your "discussion" (such as it is) will be taken remotely seriously by anyone with training in the study of ancient history, or regarded as naive over simplification at best or doctrinaire and biased pig-headed contrarianism at worst.
How I'll be taken is an
argumentum ad baculum and as such irrelevant. In any case, thank you for your concern, but I'll take my chances about that, really
So now the whole discipline of history is the equivalent of Feng Shui? That speaks volumes about your lack of training or basic understanding.
Actually, not really. It's just an illustration of the fact that I don't have to play by any discipline-specific rules. Logic and statistics work the same on any domain just the same, whether it's physics or history or Feng Shui.
No-one is holding you to any standards that are unreasonable or that don't apply in other disciplines where we try to determine what happened in the past based on fragmentary and uncertain evidence. Aspects of geology involve this. So does much of palaeontology.
To some extent. But they also don't tell me that in spite of that, there are some loops I must jump through if I don't buy a very weakly supported conjecture.
You keep repeating a question about how we can "KNOW" which bits of the biased and often fanciful material we are forced to deal with are true and which aren't. The answer is that we can't "KNOW" this. And this is often the case in the study of any period of pre-modern history, due to the paucity of source material. I keep pointing this out to you and (at one point at least) you accepted that this question is no different to a vast number of other such historical questions. But then you keep coming back to this naive conclusion that, because of this, the whole enterprise is worthless and we can't and shouldn't make any kind of judgement about what is likely to happen. Historians disagree (in fact, they'd find that childishly silly). So keep responding that if this is what you think, then perahps the analysis of ancient history isn't for you.
Well, the question wasn't how (you think) ancient history works, but
A) (as per the OP) what would count as a historical Jesus? Actually answering that would help, because that's always the subject of much equivocation.
B) my own question: about what confidence can we have in that?
Because, see, it kinda matters. Especially if, as you say, it's not black and white, but probabilities (ok, "how likely it is"), then it kinda matters how likely IS that claim, and what is the approximate error margin. If it's 99% likely to be version A, and we're pretty certain of that, then ok, we can disregard possibilities B, C and D. But if for example the probabilities for A, B, C and D are respectively 40%, 30%, 20% and 10%, then actually it's very reasonable to consider B, C and D too and there is an objective reason to want to do so.
You already answered that it's not very well supportable, nor exact, nor objective... so I'm a bit at a loss what problem you see with me from that point on. Half the time you seem to be trying to tell me what question should I be asking, and what kind of questions I'm not supposed to have an interest in. E.g., apparently I shouldn't be here if my question is about degrees of confidence in a result, and how well DOES it clear the other possibilities. But, seriously, why would I need someone to tell me what questions I should be interested in?
I never said I'm interested strictly in what answers you came here to give. Just because you have a hammer, doesn't mean I should only be interested in nails
But you won't accept that either, for some strange reason. Christ alone knows why. So around and around we go ...
Actually I can accept that, and I already did. In fact it's kinda been my point since before you were even here.
What I don't accept is that from there one can tell me to simply accept something as an authoritative result, not just IN SPITE that it doesn't have good evidence and can't have good evidence, but BECAUSE it doesn't and can't have good evidence. That's what simply doesn't compute for me.
In just about any other discipline -- and actually most of the time for history too -- a result is almost never simply a point. It's an interval or a collection of probabilities. And it matters how big it is. E.g., if someone tells me the result is 15 with a SD of 1, then ok, there would be something wrong with asking "so what if in case X it were 5?", since, well, 10 SDs away is as good as zero probability. But if it's with a SD of 10, then there is actually a good chance it could be 5 or lower. And if it's with a SD of 100, then there's no real difference in how likely it is to be 15 instead of 5. In fact, there's a good probability of it even being negative. Before someone can tell me that I should just accept a value of 15 and there's something wrong with me if I even consider a "what if it was 5?", they have to support that degree of confidence.
And even in history, while nothing has 100% perfect information, not every conclusion is equal. Some things are pretty well supported, some things less so. E.g., we're pretty darn sure where Troy is, because we have a buttload of inscriptions and all, but we're a lot less sure where the heck Atlantis was, if it even existed at all. E.g., we can have some decent and adequately supportable idea of who Socrates was, but we're a lot less sure about the supposed philosopher Timaeus. E.g., we can have a pretty good idea who Constantine was, when he lived and when he did, we're a lot less certain about queen Tomyris. E.g., we can have a pretty adequate idea who the Huns were and where they were, but we can't be anywhere near as certain about the Amazons.
Just because two things can both can be the subject of imperfect considerations, doesn't mean they're both just the same. And in fact, it kinda matters exactly where on that scale a claim is, and how confident you can be of it.
Only here I'm apparently some kind of heretic if I'm even interested in how exact it is, and what confidence can one have to exclude the alternatives. But it's kinda important to know if those other possibilities are in fact too improbable to even consider, or it's really a toss-up.
I think it should be obvious to you by now that, as with many questions of ancient history where we are relying on fragmentary, biased and fancifully embroidered evidence, this one can't be supported to the degree of certitude that you would like. Historians don't have your problem and have no difficulty with the lower degree of certainty that you find so unacceptable. But your question has been answered on the degree of certainty front, so what are you hanging around for?
Again, it's been clear to me all along. But the incompatibility still exists between positions
A) oh, it's really just a semi-informed guess based on incomplete and rather poor evidence, and a lot of personal incredulity considerations, and
B) ... but you have to take it seriously, unless you go through loops X, Y and Z, and accept a suspension of the normal rules of logic and a reversal of the burden of proof to boot.
I have no problem with people doing a case of A, if that's the best that can be done.
I do have a problem that in all of these threads someone is always coming with some version of B, i.e., "but you can't even consider the other possibilities." Because that's just incompatible with A.
Or is your intention to browbeat everyone who doesn't have your problem with the study of ancient history until they agree the whole discipline should be abandoned or something? Good luck with that.
Well, your ad-hominem considerations are still irrelevant, thank you very much
Translation: "You can't study ancient history at all and the whole shebang should be packed up and everyone sent home." Which is absurd.
Well, considering that I never said that, what strawman you can translate it into is fully irrelevant.
If we could only deal with "corroborated sources" then, given the paucity of any source material at all on most questions, we'd be left with virtually nothing. So the way it works is we make judgements (oh noes! subjectivity!) on the likelihood (ditto!) that a source can be trusted on a given point, given what we know about it and the context of what it is saying. All of which is qualitative and provisional of course. And endlessly debateable. That's how ancient history is studied, whether the subject is the existence of Jesus or the causes of the conversion of Constantine or the ethnic identifications of Ostrogothic nobles in Sixth Century Italy. Until the invention of time machines, that's simply how it will always be.
Nobody said you can ONLY use corroborated sources, but one can at least be aware of how well or how weakly something is supported, and about how well are other possibilities excluded. If an event has lots of good, contemporary, impartial and corroborating evidence, then it is indeed unreasonable to doubt it. When it doesn't, well, the more it doesn't, the less objective it becomes that you can't even entertain thoughts about what other possibilities exist.
Exactly WHERE on that accuracy scale a particular claim is, is kinda important. It's less reasonable to doubt Julius Caesar, than it is to doubt the Hyksos king Sakir-Har. It's less reasonable to doubt the institution of the vestal virgins in Rome, than it is to doubt that Herodotus is actually right about every woman having to prostitute herself before marriage in Mesopotamia. It's less reasonable to doubt the campaigns of Trajan, than it is to doubt that Sun Tzu actually had anything to do with a particular campaign of Wu against Chu. Etc.
Just because they're all based on less than 100% perfect information, doesn't mean they're all equally supported. Some things are pretty darn well supported, some a lot less so. Which is which, kinda matters.
And when accusations fly around (not necessarily from you, but then we weren't having these threads just to talk to you) that one is some kind of conspiracy theorist if one doesn't take one version as the authoritative truth, it kinda matters if it's supported to the point where it actually does reasonably exclude everything else or not. It kinda matters if something is supported more like Julius Caesar or more like Sakir-Har. The former is fairly unreasonable to doubt, the latter isn't.
You seem uncomfortable with that. Fine - others, including all professional historians in these areas, are not.
Actually I think if I want to know what professional historians think, I'll just cut the middleman and ask one

For now the question was just what can be supported and how well.
It seems you can't be very confident at all. Fine. Others are more comfortable with a much higher level of confidence in judgements about likelihood than you. Perhaps you need to just accept this and move on.
I think the question in both logic and statistics is more like how well something is SUPPORTED, than whether someone is comfortable having a high degree of confidence in something that hasn't been supported enough to warrant it. I mean, some people are comfortable with trusting their 8-ball, but that doesn't mean such confidence is actually supportable as justified
Did I say they were. Note where I said above that we don't just accept anything and everything wholesale - we make judgements (subjectivity!) about the likelihood (again!) that an uncorroborated source is telling us something useful. Which is why Acts, for example needs to be handled with great scepticism. Or why what Paul says about himself can be taken more seriously than what Acts claims about him in an embroidered, hagiographical and polemical version several decades later. This is why an element in gMark with fits with the arguably likely (subjectivity!) biases and needs of the later First Century is less likely (ditto!) to be historical than one which doesn't fit those biases and needs but does fit a First Century Galilean apocalyptic Jewish context.
Well, that's just it: I have nothing against something based on subjective considerations like that. But if it's SUBJECTIVE, I have a problem with then being told I have no OBJECTIVE reason to even entertain thoughts about other possibilities. I mean, seriously, either its excluding the other possibilities is subjective OR it's objective. I can't be told that objectively I need to accept it, if it hasn't actually been supported as objective.