RFC: Bazant and Zhou Simple Analysis refuted

I think you need to try to answer your own question here, Heiwa. So far you've said that none of the structural members buckled, that there was no damage to the initiation zone and that the building became 15 metres shorter despite the absence of any damage. Clearly, in the absence of any damage or buckling of structural members, the building could not have got 15 metres shorter. Therefore, what you've "proved" is that WTC1 is still standing.

Dave

You have to switch to the new thread, where somebody suggests that initiation was 'buckling' of the south wall and that the whole top part tilted to south, etc. You are 100% right that the building could not have become 15 metres shorter or mass/top above telescoped 15 metres into structure below in 2 seconds (viewed from the north) unless there were serious damages to all perimeter walls' and core's columns. But none are seen! And no columns from the relevant zone have been found in the rubble. Part of the mystery.

Real mystery is of course how this lightly stressed (compressed) structure would crumple in the first place. Do my model test to see that compressed columns do not crumple or disappear at 500°C.
 
Aha, the lying hoodlum henchman missed my reply 06.18 am. Sleeping again? Good night!
You are avoiding the question bje asked you a little bit earlier in the thread. And how many intact columns were there on the south side of WTC 1, you have not answered that question from 3bodyproblem either.
 
Evidently the top of WTC1 is 95% air volume wise. Then you have 4% concrete, glass, furniture, cabling, etc and 1% steel structure. Like most skyscrapers. And you can slam an airplane into it and destroy part of the steel structure and nothing happens due to structural redundancy. The tower was built very strong! Very low stresses in the structure.

The steel structure takes very little space so an aluminium/plastic plane cannot destroy many steel parts. Most fuel in the plane burns very quickly in a ball of fire and then a normal office fire starts. No big deal. Cannot harm the steel structure. It is like a fire in an iron stove. The stove does not melt, buckle or collapse. If you believe otherwise, you have been fooled.

But let's assume all the steel columns buckle in way of the impact/fire zone. The only result would be that the columns bend and crumple and that the top part of the tower above (95% air) moves down a little. The buckled columns will act as fenders and prevent damage of the tower below. If you believe otherwise, you have been fooled, I have to repeat.

My model will however demonstrate that the columns will not buckle due to the fire.

I have designed and built many steel ships with very good results so you do not have to worry about that. Sleep well.



You are incompetent to model the Twin Towers. You have provided ample proof of that fact. It's time you retired from the field, taking your agenda-driven preconceived conclusions with you.
 
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Of course. That is the first I did (of course only two months ago when I first seriously studied the matter) ... and which NIST didn't do ... ever. See my paper! The top of WTC1 is 95% air! On top of a lightly compressed structure below. Nothing can happen.

And what value did you obtain for the potential energy of the portion of the buildings above the impact?
 
A normal office fire starts. No big deal. Cannot harm the steel structure.

Most fuel in the plane burns very quickly in a ball of fire and then a normal office fire starts. No big deal. Cannot harm the steel structure. It is like a fire in an iron stove. The stove does not melt, buckle or collapse. If you believe otherwise, you have been fooled.

Heiwa, I've seen pictures like
Madrid_Windsor.jpg


which appear to show steel buckling in an office fire. The structure appears to be collapsing. Am I mistaken in my belief?
 
And of course NIST never shows in its 10 000 pages report that the potential energy released did exceed the strain energy that could be absorbed by the structure.

Again, I look forward to seeing your value for the potential energy released.
 
Aha, the lying hoodlum henchman missed my reply 06.18 am. Sleeping again? Good night!


The point is that you didn't miss my many questions over the last several weeks, Heiwa.

And you would not answer them, either. Are you now prepared to answer my questions and those of all the others here?
 
The point is that you didn't miss my many questions over the last several weeks, Heiwa.

And you would not answer them, either. Are you now prepared to answer my questions and those of all the others here?

I'm sure that Heiwa will be along shortly to address all these points. I'm especially interested in his observation that office fires cannot cause steel to buckle, and I'd like to compare his value for the potential energy contained in the portion of the WTC above the impacts with my own. No rush.
 
A fully dynamic analysis will utilize calculus to make dynamical evolution mathematically precise. If you study, e.g., the Ari-Gur/Singer paper, the question of subtracting a net plastic energy before or after a net elastic energy doesn't arise. Not in a simple way such as being discussed, anyway.

From their experimental results, seen in Fig. 2a, http://metamars.i8.com/ , at the particular spot in the rod that measurements were made, we can see that an elastic deformation and plastic deformation only overlap for about 1.5 msec. The elastic pulse preceeds the plastic pulse by about .5 msec. So, at least for the Ari-Gur/Singer scenario, it looks like you can say that, in some sense, you can subtract a portion of elastic energy before plastic energy.

I took a look at the Ari-Gur paper to try and quantitatively determine energy dissipation due to elastic vs. non-elastic dissipation.

The following is inexact - I am eyeballing a graphs to derive figures from it. I hope somebody else will follow up by studying the Ari-Gur paper, then giving either one of the authors a call, or else somebody else who actually works in the field of impact studies. I make assumptions that I'm not really sure about, so take with a grain of salt. I would appreciate it if other people studied this paper....

p. 622 of their paper (which I have uploaded) gives 2 compressive strain vs. time plots (side-by-side). The peak strain for the first plot is about 1000 mu, and the peak strain for the second plot is about 1500 mu. I'm not sure which test sample this is for. A pair of graphs on the bottom of p. 633 show experimental and theoretical graphs for one of the steel samples. Oddly enough, the theoretical graph seem to match the experimental graphs on p. 622 better (ignoring the inversion about the time axis.)

In any event, I referred to the theoretical graph, since I am eye-balling things, and this is the easiest to eyeball.


From the graph, the main elastic pulse is (very) roughly equal in area to a box 1000 mu high by .35 msec wide. Since the speed of sound in steel is 5,100 m/s, that means that the initial "pulse" is felt over a length of about 1.5 m. Since all the steel specimens were under 1 meter (max 380 mm), I take this to mean that it's a good approximation to consider the strain as being representative of the specimen as a whole, and furthermore that the rod can transfer elastic energy (to be calculated below) through the rod in an amount equal to 1.5 m/ 230 mm = 6.5 times the elastic strain energy corresponding to a 230 mm rod, compressed 1000 microns, statically. (Actually, this can't be correct, as I will show.)

Please note that I had previously thought that the pulses were smaller than the sample. Thus, I thought the pulses were mostly exiting out the bottom of the impacted rod, never to return.

Now, that seems to be definitely wrong! The fact that nobody ever questioned me on this point just shows, I think, why we need to talk to experts in the field. I don't know that anybody is looking at the relevant studies, besides myself, and I am clearly not a domain expert.

Anyway, rolling right along....

p. 623 has dimension and measurements of the various steel specimens being impacted. Using a middling one, Y5, I have a length of 230 mm, width 19.05 mm, and thickness 1.6 mm.

From Hooke's Law, using a constant of 10^9 N/m^2, I find that the elastic static strain energy is

(19.05 x 10^-3 m) * ( 1.6 x 10^-3 m ) (10^9 N/m^2) * (1,000 / 1,000,000) * (2.3 x 10^-1 m)


= 7.01 Newton


However, the Kinetic Energy is just 1/2 m v^2, where the striking mass has mass 180 grams and velocity 10.05 m/s

so KE = .5 * .18 kg * 100 m^2/s^2

= 9 Newton

Earlier, we saw that the "pulse" would have exceeded the length of the struck object. If we interpret this as meaning that 6.5 x the static strain energy is passing through this object, we end up with an energy sink greater than the energy source! Obviously, a contradiction.

That being the case, it seems unintuitive that the strain energy would "sit around" in the struck rod until after (9 Newton - 7.01 Newton) got dissipated in plastic strain, and then leave through the bottom of the rod. The plastic strain begins after the elastic loading begins, and it's oscillations "of consequence" continue after the main elastic pulse has terminated.

If the main elastic pulse had lasted about as long as the plastic strain oscillations, I would think it likely that all of the 'extra' (i.e., exceeding the static case) elastic energy goes into plastic strain. However, this isn't the case.

All of which means, I'm really not sure what becomes of the elastic energy.

As we are discussing energy dissipation in a collapse, and we want to try and get a handle as to how much elastic strain energy can pass through the bottom of the building via the columns, I would hope that I'm not the only one interested in quantitative experiments which can shed light on this.

N.B. : Ari-Gur never responded to my email inviting him to participate.
 
From Hooke's Law, using a constant of 10^9 N/m^2, I find that the elastic static strain energy is

(19.05 x 10^-3 m) * ( 1.6 x 10^-3 m ) (10^9 N/m^2) * (1,000 / 1,000,000) * (2.3 x 10^-1 m)


= 7.01 Newton

Actually, it's Newton-m, or Joules


However, the Kinetic Energy is just 1/2 m v^2, where the striking mass has mass 180 grams and velocity 10.05 m/s

so KE = .5 * .18 kg * 100 m^2/s^2

= 9 Newton

ditto
 
I think it is a little more than a rehash of what Gregory said in that post of a few years ago. However, Gregory did show Bazant's mass estimate for WTC 1 was way off.

It is also now known, due to actual measurements of the fall of WTC 1 and the knowledge that freefall cannot be achieved during buckling of columns due to a minimum resistance, that Bazant's freefall velocity was impossible.

The result of his overestimate of mass and velocity causes Bazant to grossly overestimate the kinetic energy of the upper section of WTC 1.

In addition, it is now known, due to column size releases and Gregory's analysis, that Bazant grossly underestimated the column energy absorption of the structure below the falling upper section of WTC 1.

Bazant's analysis has now been shown to be completely bogus and his overload ratio much less than 1.

Speaking of completely bogus, TS’ response belongs here.

For WTC1 Ideal Model, Bazant calculated two ways that the kinetic energy from the falling block above could be resisted by the columns below.
1) Elastic Dynamic Analysis. This is what TS is referring to above. This thread examines this and there is disagreement on the stiffness of the columns below.

Bazant addresses the velocity question In his first paper,re buckling resistance:

“The energy dissipation, particularly that due to the inelastic
deformation of columns during the initial drop of the upper
part, may be neglected, i.e., the upper part may be assumed to
move through distance h almost in a free fall (indeed, the energy
dissipated in the columns during the fall is at most equal to 2 pi X
the yield moment of columns, X the number of columns, which is
found to be only about 12% of the gravitational potential energy
release if the columns were cold, and much less than that at
800°C)”

http://www.civil.northwestern.edu/people/bazant/PDFs/Papers/405.pdf

2) Inelastic Energy Dissipation. - Bazant
W(g) = Gravitational energy of structure above =~4.2 GN m
W(p) = Plastically dissipated energy absorbed by columns below =~0.5GN m
mg = weight

W(g)/W(p) = mg x 2h = ~ 4.2 GNm / 0.5GN m =~8.4times overload

Bazant’s weight = 58 x 10^6 kg; Urich’s weight = 32.8 x 10^6 kg = 57% of Bazant’s weight.
Substituting in above formula 57% x 4.2 GN m = 2.39 GN m / 0.5 GN m = ~4.8 times overload.

"So, even under the most optimistic assumptions by far, the plastic
deformation can dissipate only a small part of the kinetic energy
acquired by the upper part of building."
-ibid.

On inelastic energy dissipation considerations alone, and under the most optimistic conditions that all columns hit squarely and simultaneously, the columns below could not resist the kinetic energy of the columns above.

“Bazant’s analysis has now been shown to be completely bogus”.
I’m no longer surprised by TS’ creative new ways of being wrong.
 
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Whatever happened to the Heiwa Challenge ? That was very amusing.
 
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Speaking of completely bogus, TS’ response belongs here.

For WTC1 Ideal Model, Bazant calculated two ways that the kinetic energy from the falling block above could be resisted by the columns below.
1) Elastic Dynamic Analysis. This is what TS is referring to above. This thread examines this and there is disagreement on the stiffness of the columns below.

Bazant addresses the velocity question In his first paper,re buckling resistance:

“The energy dissipation, particularly that due to the inelastic
deformation of columns during the initial drop of the upper
part, may be neglected, i.e., the upper part may be assumed to
move through distance h almost in a free fall (indeed, the energy
dissipated in the columns during the fall is at most equal to 2 pi X
the yield moment of columns, X the number of columns, which is
found to be only about 12% of the gravitational potential energy
release if the columns were cold, and much less than that at
800°C)”

http://www.civil.northwestern.edu/people/bazant/PDFs/Papers/405.pdf

2) Inelastic Energy Dissipation. - Bazant
W(g) = Gravitational energy of structure above =~4.2 GN m
W(p) = Plastically dissipated energy absorbed by columns below =~0.5GN m
mg = weight

W(g)/W(p) = mg x 2h = ~ 4.2 GNm / 0.5GN m =~8.4times overload

Bazant’s weight = 58 x 10^6 kg; Urich’s weight = 32.8 x 10^6 kg = 57% of Bazant’s weight.
Substituting in above formula 57% x 4.2 GN m = 2.39 GN m / 0.5 GN m = ~4.8 times overload.

"So, even under the most optimistic assumptions by far, the plastic
deformation can dissipate only a small part of the kinetic energy
acquired by the upper part of building."
-ibid.

On inelastic energy dissipation considerations alone, and under the most optimistic conditions that all columns hit squarely and simultaneously, the columns below could not resist the kinetic energy of the columns above.

“Bazant’s analysis has now been shown to be completely bogus”.
I’m no longer surprised by TS’ creative new ways of being wrong.

Wg is not weight, it is energy. You have to substitute the kinetic energy developed during the fall for the potential energy.

By using freefall generated velocity and an overestimated mass Bazant overestimates kinetic energy by 3.4 times. He is not getting the full potential energy being completely converted to kinetic energy because the buckling columns would have offered resistance in the initiating story.

The mass overestimate = 58 x 10e6/33 x 10e6 = 1.76.

The freefall generated velocity Bazant uses at impact for one story as shown in his 2011 paper is 8.52 m/s and in reality the measurements show 6.13 m/s. Since velocity is a squared term in the kinetic energy equation (1/2mv^2) the overestimate is = 8.52^2/6.13^2 = 1.93. The actual velocity component is thus 52% of Bazant's assumption.

Doing it your way would be 57% x 4.2 = 2.39 and that times 52% for the velocity gives Wg = 1.24

You also forgot the part about Bazant's underestimate of the plastic energy dissipation and that it is actually = 1.68 GNm not 0.5 GNm.

So Bazant's Wg/Wp = 1.24/1.68 = 0.738

Bazant's potential energy is also for a two story fall and is why he shows it as mg x 2h. For one story it is mgh and using Bazants weight (mg) is 2.1 GNm and then correcting for the mass and velocity errors Wg for one story = 0.62.

So Bazant's actual Wg/Wp for a one story fall = 0.62/1.68 = 0.369.

The above means Bazant's analysis would have shown no overload for one or even two stories if he had used the correct values for mass of the upper section, velocity at impact, and column energy absorption. Bazant's published analysis is full of incorrect assumed values leading to a false result. He even admits he may have erred by a factor of two in his assumptions in the Addendum to the Bazant and Zhou paper. When each factor of two error is multiplied together the total error Bazant incurs is significant enough to bias his entire analysis.

Sorry to burst your bubble here but you have to look at the whole picture, not just the mass difference. Use of the mass differences alone and potential energy implies freefall generated velocity and that has been proven by measurement not to have been the case. This makes sense as buckling columns provide significant minimum resistance and would not allow freefall as Bazant claims.
 
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Fine, Tony, I'll play your little game. Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that everything you said directly relating to Bazant's calculations is true and that his model should actually show collapse arrest. So what? It's a theoretical calculation that doesn't match the real world. In the real world, the column ends don't line up neatly and land on each other like in some cartoon world. Even if direct column-to-column impacts would have arrested the collapse (and I have seen no evidence to suggest that is the case), that isn't what actually happened on 9/11, so your argument seems to be nothing more than an elaborately constructed strawman.
 
Somebody should notify Bazant and Zhou that they've been soundly refuted; it's the right thing to do. :rolleyes:
 
For Bazant’s North Tower Ideal Model Inelastic Energy Dissipation analysis:
Wg is not weight, it is energy. You have to substitute the kinetic energy developed during the fall for the potential energy.
By using freefall generated velocity and an overestimated mass Bazant overestimates kinetic energy by 3.4 times. He is not getting the full potential energy being completely converted to kinetic energy because the buckling columns would have offered resistance in the initiating story.
Here’s Bazant’s explanation for the buckling columns question:
Also read preamble to the following:
“The energy dissipation, particularly that due to the inelastic
deformation of columns during the initial drop of the upper
part, may be neglected, i.e., the upper part may be assumed to
move through distance h almost in a free fall (indeed, the energy
dissipated in the columns during the fall is at most equal to 2 pi X
the yield moment of columns, X the number of columns, which is
found to be only about 12% of the gravitational potential energy
release if the columns were cold, and much less than that at
800°C)”
http://www.civil.northwestern.edu/pe...Papers/405.pdf

Your buckling resistance is disputed.
The mass overestimate = 58 x 10e6/33 x 10e6 = 1.76.
The freefall generated velocity Bazant uses at impact for one story as shown in his 2011 paper is 8.52 m/s and in reality the measurements show 6.13 m/s. Since velocity is a squared term in the kinetic energy equation (1/2mv^2) the overestimate is = 8.52^2/6.13^2 = 1.93. The actual velocity component is thus 52% of Bazant's assumption.
Doing it your way would be 57% x 4.2 = 2.39 and that times 52% for the velocity gives Wg = 1.24
Your velocity estimate by the difference of the buckling columns and 1 floor factor question is disputed.

Also Bazant’s calculations is for the Ideal Model of square and simultaneous column impacts, you’re erroneously mixing it with the north wall fall measurements (to be proven) of the Actual Event. The Actual Event global collapse is well proven, columns didn't hit squarely and simultaneously, they hit the slab or missed, floors hit floors, the CD explanation is not.
The mass calculations are mathematically simple but tedious, and what the most accurate estimate is, is disputed.
You also forgot the part about Bazant's underestimate of the plastic energy dissipation and that it is actually = 1.68 GNm not 0.5 GNm.
This difference in plastic energy dissipation of the columns below is disputed.

So Bazant's Wg/Wp = 1.24/1.68 = 0.738
Bazant's potential energy is also for a two story fall and is why he shows it as mg x 2h. For one story it is mgh and using Bazants weight (mg) is 2.1 GNm and then correcting for the mass and velocity errors Wg for one story = 0.62.
So Bazant's actual Wg/Wp for a one story fall = 0.62/1.68 = 0.369.
Here’s Bazant’s explanation of the two floors factor:
Also read preamble to the following:
“To attain the combined rotation angle (insert formula) of the plastic
hinges on each column line, the upper part of the building must
move down by the additional distance of at least one floor below
the floor where the collapse started”. -ibid
Your one floor factor is disputed.

The above means Bazant's analysis would have shown no overload for one or even two stories if he had used the correct values for mass of the upper section, velocity at impact, and column energy absorption. Bazant's published analysis is full of incorrect assumed values leading to a false result. He even admits he may have erred by a factor of two in his assumptions in the Addendum to the Bazant and Zhou paper. When each factor of two error is multiplied together the total error Bazant incurs is significant enough to bias his entire analysis.
Sorry to burst your bubble here but you have to look at the whole picture, not just the mass difference. Use of the mass differences alone and potential energy implies freefall generated velocity and that has been proven by measurement not to have been the case. This makes sense as buckling columns provide significant minimum resistance and would not allow freefall as Bazant claims.
Your mass, velocity, buckling resistance, one story factor, and plastic energy dissipation by the columns below are disputed and this is the forum to prove it. You haven’t done so.
The question to be resolved in this lightweight subforum is whether one of the two Bazant’s Ideal Model analyses, even if adjusted, show that there was more kinetic energy produced than could be resisted by the columns below. You haven’t falsified it.
No CD, no US government conspiracy collapsed the Towers. The terrorists did it.
 
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...Use of the mass differences alone and potential energy implies freefall generated velocity and that has been proven by measurement not to have been the case. This makes sense as buckling columns provide significant minimum resistance and would not allow freefall as Bazant claims.
Again we see the utter confusion of Tony's base assumptions. In this example mixing bits of Bazantian abstract modelling with measurements of the real world. There is no way that Tony could have taken measurements of the abstract model which he is talking about.

As I said somewhere else it is roughly equivalent to taking measurements off a donkey to prove the thickness of the skin of an orange. (Members feel free to substitute your own preferred examples of invalid comparisons or analogies.)

This was the same error that self-falsified 'Missing Jolt'. Applying real world measurements to an abstract model which had its own setting of context and assumptions and which were not 'real world'.
nono.gif


Making the error once could be understandable - and, once pointed out, followed by blushingly embarrassed apologies and retractions. Repeating the same error time and again is neither understandable nor excusable. :mad:
 

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