Should China End Its One-Child Policy?

Your news stories are about the total birth rate/population declining, with some additional about a (pretty small) decline in male/female. The situation in China is the opposite of that and is very large: 1.20 male births per female

The data is in the UN Dept of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, linked in one of the threads I linked above.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
 
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Your news stories are about the total birth rate/population declining, with some additional about a (pretty small) decline in male/female. The situation in China is the opposite of that and is very large: 1.20 male births per female

The data is in the UN Dept of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, linked in one of the threads I linked above.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
No, my links all contain information about the birth *ratio* disparity, you are simply ignoring that.

Anything over 1.05 is considered a 'distortion', including China at 1.13, India at 1.1, and Japan at 1.06 and rising.

Your assertion about Japan's ratio is proven false in spite of your handwaving the facts away. China's being the highest does nothing to change the situation in either country.

It is a problem, it is going to remain a problem, and whatever point you are making, is obsured by your using denier tactics.
 
You remain in error. Japan does not have an unbalanced male:female ratio of births, and never has done. China does and has for decades. Anything you observe for Japan cannot be attributed to an excess of males to females. Educate yourself.
 
You remain in error. Japan does not have an unbalanced male:female ratio of births, and never has done. China does and has for decades. Anything you observe for Japan cannot be attributed to an excess of males to females. Educate yourself.
I'll stick to the linked facts, you and they will just have to agree to disagree.
 
No, my links all contain information about the birth *ratio* disparity, you are simply ignoring that.

Anything over 1.05 is considered a 'distortion', including China at 1.13, India at 1.1, and Japan at 1.06 and rising.

Your assertion about Japan's ratio is proven false in spite of your handwaving the facts away. China's being the highest does nothing to change the situation in either country.

It is a problem, it is going to remain a problem, and whatever point you are making, is obsured by your using denier tactics.

I do not understand your point of view. Your own link says

Mother Nature has always ensured that male births outnumber female ones, but the gap has been gradually narrowing over the past three decades in the U.S. and Japan, according to a new study.

The ratio in Japan is falling, not rising.

In China, they have a distorted ratio, but again, your link say it is falling. This is probably due to more women being able to have more than one child.
In 2009, China's male-to-female at birth stood at 119.45, a drop of 1.11 points from 2008, Li said.

Your ratio of 1.05 is also contradicted by your link that says


The sex ratio even reached the 130 mark in some provinces in 2005, seriously deviating from the normal level of 103 to 107.
The above is talking about China. So Japan having 106 boys for every 100 girls is in the normal range.
 
I do not understand your point of view. Your own link says



The ratio in Japan is falling, not rising.

In China, they have a distorted ratio, but again, your link say it is falling. This is probably due to more women being able to have more than one child.


Your ratio of 1.05 is also contradicted by your link that says



The above is talking about China. So Japan having 106 boys for every 100 girls is in the normal range.
Have it your way then. There is no birth ratio disparity in Japan, there are too many women, so there could never be an imbalance in females to males in the late teens to late 20s, therefore the rapes simply aren't happening.

See how convenient denial is? Enjoy.
 
Have it your way then. There is no birth ratio disparity in Japan, there are too many women, so there could never be an imbalance in females to males in the late teens to late 20s, therefore the rapes simply aren't happening.

See how convenient denial is? Enjoy.
...and this from the guy who complains that others misquote or misrepresent him.

Here is what rjh01 actually said:
Mother Nature has always ensured that male births outnumber female ones, but the gap has been gradually narrowing over the past three decades in the U.S. and Japan, according to a new study.
Now, this was a quote taken directly from the source that you cited. rjh01 was simply pointing out that A) even in a 100% natural birth system, with no effort to determine or control the gender of children, there will naturally be more males than females born, and B) that the difference in the ratio of male to female in Japan is decreasing. Again, let me remind you that this info comes from the very article that you cited.

So rjh01 isn't saying that there's no birth ratio disparity; he's saying that the disparity is mostly attributable to natural biological phenomenon...and that what small portion may not be natural, it seems to be decreasing.

And as to the "rapes aren't really happening" thing...I can't say that you've moved the goalposts, cuz you seem to have moved to an entirely different field altogether! What does the number of rapes have to do with this? Are you claiming that an increased number of rapes proves a disproportionate male population? Or is this just some desperate attempt to try to salvage an obviously losing position by turning it into an emotional debate where "claiming that Japan doesn't have a significant problem in regards to male to female birth ratios" is somehow equal to "denying that rape takes place"?

Personally, although I'll admit I haven't done much research on this, I'd be willing to bet that the frequency of rape has far more to do with cultural attitudes towards women and sex, than it does to do with the ratio of male to female births in a society. Lacking further clarification and data, I don't see what point it is that you are trying to make here.
 
*snip*
Personally, although I'll admit I haven't done much research on this, I'd be willing to bet that the frequency of rape has far more to do with cultural attitudes towards women and sex, than it does to do with the ratio of male to female births in a society. Lacking further clarification and data, I don't see what point it is that you are trying to make here.

I think this can easily be confirmed. There has been, and still is, plenty of sub-societies where the male/female ratio was/is highly skewed; mining towns, ships, pioneer settlements, etc. There is little indication that rape is particularly prominent in such settings. Prostitution, OTOH.... :rolleyes:

Hans
 
It's interesting that you specify extremely outdated works from the 1960s, to make a point. I'd like to suggest reading more recent studies by authors such as Fred Pearce, Marc Reisner, and Robert Glennon. They have the benefit of much better scientific data and analysis than those earlier books authors that you mentioned.

I don't think that America's problem with hunger is due to lack of food. It's due to numerous reasons, socio-economic, political, and a general sense of apathy. The point is that even if we can produce enough to feed everyone right now, that will not remain the case as resources are used by a growing populace. Farms will be turned to housing, water will be diverted to cities and industry, and that's not taking into account climatic issues such as global warming (drought). We are going to have droughts and if they are severe, we will see severe consequences. Read "Cadillac Desert" if you want scientific exposition, or read "The Grapes of Wrath" if you want historic perspective.


Hi Rhoddy Dave,

I'm sorry for choosing "extremely out-of-date books" and I will try to look into the other authors you cite.

I tend to agree with you that lack of food is not the main problem but I also think that a growing population (whose rate of growth is slowing) is not the most pressing problem. I tend to think, that seeing a growing population as the problem is something of a distraction from the actual problems of distribution.

As for Grapes of Wrath, I haven't read it I am afraid, but I have listened to Woody Guthrie's Dustbowl Ballards many times and I think the conclusion I could draw from that is that even when the population of the US was far lower there were massive problems of food distribution. Does this mean that if we have a higher population we will further strain our food resources or does it mean that no matter what the population is we will always grow enough for everyone and still not be able to feed everyone. In other words, if the population started declining, would that mean there would be far more food for everyone or would we grow less and still see people go hungry.

Anyway, I realize I may not have expressed that well.
 
So it went something like this?

Only one baby allowed!

Abort, abort, abort, male, keep!

Ok, ok, we're about 50 million women short now. You can have multiple babies, up to 3.

Abort, abort, abort, male, keep! Abort, abort, abort, male, keep! Abort, abort, abort, male, keep! Three males, yes!


That's...sick. I've already prophesied the dangers of having a hundred million angry young men without women for partners. Now...?

What I read, in an Economist article that I can no longer find, is that parents who could only have one child actually were less likely to abort a child. Whether the baby was male or female, families tended not to want to risk aborting and then being left with no child at all if the procedure went wrong. And, perhaps there is some psychological barrier about a first born; just as when a first-born child is born and gets lots of toys, told not to swear, has some kind of specially devised education with IQ tests and Mozart etc... the second or third child is allowed to play in the traffic, snort coke, fart in public etc...

Anyway, first borns will be looked after, male or female. Only later females will be discarded.

On the other hand, it could be that urban families are less likely to need their children to go out into the fields and work for a living, so they are in less need of a boy, whereas in the provinces which are less strict or allow multiple births there is more emphasis on getting a male with or without the policy.

I don't know...
 
I'll stick to the linked facts
The articles in your links don't even say what you write in post 42. You are muddled, and incorrect. Get over it.

127464ffbfbbb42b11.jpg


Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

http://esa.un.org/wpp/Sorting-Tables/tab-sorting_fertility.htm

http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/DB01_Period_Indicators/WPP2010_DB1_F22_SEX_RATIO_AT_BIRTH.XLS
 
http://www.health.am/ab/more/japan_male_population_shrinks_first_time_on_record/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4065647.stm

But since 1970, the U.S. and Japan have experienced a downward shift in this male-to-female birth ratio, researchers report in the online edition of the journal Environmental Health Perspectives
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/04/16/us-male-births-idUSCOL66726420070416


And:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/7012887.html

The first link in your post merely showed that the male population was declining. It also showed that women outnumbered men by 2 million people.
 
Does this mean that if we have a higher population we will further strain our food resources or does it mean that no matter what the population is we will always grow enough for everyone and still not be able to feed everyone. In other words, if the population started declining, would that mean there would be far more food for everyone or would we grow less and still see people go hungry.

That is a great question. My opinion is that we won't be able to grow enough for everyone, even IF population declines. 7+ billion worldwide with climate change issues affecting coastal areas and weather patterns is going to be a challenge to agriculture. Combine that with humanity's innate predisposition to greed and corruption (which is predominantly why we have hungry people in America) that contributes to famine despite global initiatives/charity, and I don't see a rosy future.
 
These books were predicting deaths of 100s of millions of people within the coming ten or twenty years.
And what happened, to make them so fundamentally wrong about everything? Some pesticides and fertilizers got invented or became more widespread. That's like borrowing to pay debts. It might cause a delay, but doesn't change anything else about what's happening. So where is the evidence or logic to tell us that Malthus & such were actually wrong, about something other than the date?

I think the last sentence shows that it isn't a problem of food production. The US could easily feed every child in the country with the amount of food available. And could probably feed the rest of the world too.
Almost two thousand people per square mile to grow food on for them; about a third of an acre apiece. And that includes every slope, stone peak, desert, tundra, and lake/river, as well as every block of paved surface, the footprint of every building, and every acre of potentially agriculturally usable land whose natural habitat hasn't been deleted yet.

All that that claim does is prove beyond any doubt that you haven't given the issue a moment of actual thought and are just spouting ideological fantasy.

I can't argue against such a vague doom and gloom prophecy unless you explain to me why food and water will dwindle. Are we talking about climate change reducing ice caps, here? Are we talking about the amount of guano running out?
For water, it's simple. A population that gets all of its water from the cycle of precipitation & vaporization will have the water it uses returned to it, and thus is sustainable. A population that mines its water from finite sources that don't get replenished like that, such as the wells from which the farmland in the middle of North America is irrigated, will decrease the supply from which it is withdrawing, and thus is heading for a crash when it runs out.

For food, it's a bit more complicated but the issues are similar. The four most common elements in food are H, C, N, and O, which come from the air and return to the air in cycles comparable to the water cycle. But the other 50+ all come from soil, can be recycled only in the form of organic matter falling on the ground as it does in the wild, and are simply removed from the environment when food (or wood) is harvested. So agriculture can only decrease the amount of those elements in the environment; it is simply nutrient mining. Also, farming inevitably means significantly faster than natural physical erosion (soil getting simply washed away regardless of its remaining nutrient content), and irrigation tends to also involve soil salinization if the water source is a well. So the land's capacity to support life gets decreased in three separate ways.
 
And what happened, to make them so fundamentally wrong about everything? Some pesticides and fertilizers got invented or became more widespread. That's like borrowing to pay debts. It might cause a delay, but doesn't change anything else about what's happening. So where is the evidence or logic to tell us that Malthus & such were actually wrong, about something other than the date?

?? Obviously, you can do sustainable agriculture even with fertilizers and pesticides, so why is this just a delay?

Almost two thousand people per square mile to grow food on for them; about a third of an acre apiece. And that includes every slope, stone peak, desert, tundra, and lake/river, as well as every block of paved surface, the footprint of every building, and every acre of potentially agriculturally usable land whose natural habitat hasn't been deleted yet.

Yeah, it may be a tall order to have the US grow food for all the world, but then the US is only about 7% of the world's land area, so while we should not, say, tripple the world population, it seems that feeding the present one should be feasible.

For water, it's simple. A population that gets all of its water from the cycle of precipitation & vaporization will have the water it uses returned to it, and thus is sustainable.

If they refrain from polluting it, yes.

A population that mines its water from finite sources that don't get replenished like that, such as the wells from which the farmland in the middle of North America is irrigated, will decrease the supply from which it is withdrawing, and thus is heading for a crash when it runs out.

How many places rely on entirely fossil water sources? And will they not be able to replace them with renewable, if needed?

For food, it's a bit more complicated but the issues are similar. The four most common elements in food are H, C, N, and O, which come from the air and return to the air in cycles comparable to the water cycle. But the other 50+ all come from soil, can be recycled only in the form of organic matter falling on the ground as it does in the wild, and are simply removed from the environment when food (or wood) is harvested.

This is the reason we use fertilizer.

So agriculture can only decrease the amount of those elements in the environment; it is simply nutrient mining.

Oversimplification. If you farm a land heavily without using any form of fertilizer, you will typically "mine" it dry of nutrients in less than a decade, but much of the worlds agricultural land has been used for centuries or even millennia, so it is possible to establish a renewable cycle.

Also, farming inevitably means significantly faster than natural physical erosion (soil getting simply washed away regardless of its remaining nutrient content),

This is simply wrong. Any sensible farming scheme has the avoidance of erosion as a central part. I am looking out of my window at farmland that has been provably farmed for at least 5.000 years (there is a stone age burial mound sitting on it). It remains fertile and un-eroded.

and irrigation tends to also involve soil salinization if the water source is a well. So the land's capacity to support life gets decreased in three separate ways.

There are ways to handle that. Also, very few areas are watered solely from wells. Even rare rainfalls will deplete salt.

Hans
 
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How many places rely on entirely fossil water sources?
I don't have a worldwide total for this, but the bits that I do know tell me that more of it does than doesn't. In the USA's 48 contiguous states, for example, the whole middle and western two thirds or so of it, including its most famous farmland, is naturally too arid for farming without wells, except along the coasts of Oregon & Washington. Water levels in the region's underground aquifers have been going down steadily, forcing wells to be redrilled or go dry. Texas & California, which also already divert disproportionate amounts of surface water from out-of-state, have had their well water levels descend by more than a hundred feet, which is a threshold also passed by India. One Indian aquifer has descended more than 30 feet just since 1980. A milder case spread over parts of several states but centered in Nebraska has lost about a tenth of its supply since the 1950s. In Asia overall, wells supply about three fourths of all agricultural water. Dried dead wells of various ages and the remains of the towns that once lived around them are a common feature of Middle Eastern and African deserts.

And will they not be able to replace them with renewable, if needed?
It's the other way around. Wells replaced the renewable sources when the perpetually increasing demand from more and more and more and more people wanting to eat and drink made the renewable sources simply not enough anymore.

This is the reason we use fertilizer.
No, it isn't. Out of 57 elements in our bodies that we get from the soil (60 minus C, O, and H), we use fertilizer to try to partially replace about a dozen. We don't use fertilizer or anything else to do anything at all about the rest. Historically, the response to a depleted field has been to just abandon it and move on. Much of what is applied is lost as runoff anyway before getting incorporated into the soil in a way that can be used, and by far most of it is made from mined rocks such as limestone and evaporite salts, not organic matter cycles, so they'll run out anyway.

If you farm a land heavily without using any form of fertilizer, you will typically "mine" it dry of nutrients in less than a decade, but much of the worlds agricultural land has been used for centuries or even millennia, so it is possible to establish a renewable cycle.
No. The depletion simply progresses more quickly in some places and more slowly in others, and in some cases another form of damage such as physical erosion or salination/salinization will ruin the land before depletion gets a chance to, but having it not happen is just simply not a possibility within the laws of physics. Taking stuff away and not putting it back can only yield results in one direction.

Any sensible farming scheme has the avoidance of erosion as a central part.
Not avoidance. Reduction.

It remains fertile and un-eroded.
It is eroded. No farmed land isn't. It's just not eroded all the way down to nothing yet, so there's still some left. Similarly, the soil in the region I grew up in is several feet thick and still supporting farms for now, but that's only what's left after it has lost several feet. I don't delude myself that the fact that it's not all gone yet means it will last forever. It's still only going away, not sitting still or being replaced from anywhere else.

On the "fertile" part, I don't know about the nutrient depletion rate there, but the difference between having already run out of something and being in the process of running out of it, as mentioned in the last paragraph, applies to nutrients as well as it does to the soil itself. Also, it's actually possible for the nutrient concentrations to stay the same if erosion works on the soil faster than depletion does, as long as the depleted part is what gets washed away and the part that's left behind hasn't yet had anything extracted from it (so each time you go back you're measuring the elements' concentrations in a slightly different sample from what was there before). Different lands suffer these problems at different rates, so one problem can strike when another hasn't yet.

There are ways to handle that.
If by "handle" you mean slow it down, yes, but slowing it down is only slowing it down. If by "handle" you mean completely stop or reverse it, please tell Australia and the southwestern USA about this miraculous breakthrough. You'll go down in history alongside Borlaug (and have a chance to become richer than some small countries).
 
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I'll research the other parts, but this I can answer right away.

It is eroded. No farmed land isn't. It's just not eroded all the way down to nothing yet, so there's still some left.

Most places, in my country, if you remove the top-soil, as they do in archaeological investigations, when you get to the bottom, where the ice age sand or clay takes over, you find the plow-traces of the first farmers. Since then, agriculture has ADDED to the fertile layer of top-soil.

The burial mound I mentioned stands lower over the top-soil today than when they built it 5,000 years ago.

Hans
 
Good point there: although it is true the various physical, mechanical activities of farming universally cause erosion, I did forget about depositional environments, and one where deposition is fast enough can cancel that out, so the loss of soil from agricultural activities only slows the deposition down. The catch is that very few places are like that, and it has no counterparts for the other issues I mentioned.

Also, when I mentioned the limited supply of elements which are included in fertilizers at all, I forgot to mention that soil nutrient replenishment isn't the reason why we have fertilizer. The real reason is to make the plants get bigger right now than they would naturally, which can actually increase their rate of nutrient extraction.

BTW, stuff like this is part (although not the top of the list) of why I gave up what was in some ways a good career in forestry. I'd go out to a logging/planting site to inspect it for erosion control practices and pass them if they did what can be done, but I could also see for myself that some erosion still got past them, just not as much as if they hadn't taken care at all. And then I'd see & hear what we were doing referred to as "sustainable" forestry. I hated the hypocrisy. It gets in the way of addressing the real fundamental issues, like doing quick triage treatments at the scene of a medical emergency but calling that good enough and not sending the patients on to the hospital.
 
Now, Japan is reaping the harvest of that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Free
Anecdote is anecdote.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rap_percap-crime-rapes-per-capita

Rate of rape in Japan: 0.014 per 1000
Rate of rape in Norway: 0.203 per 1000


No, my links all contain information about the birth *ratio* disparity, you are simply ignoring that.

Anything over 1.05 is considered a 'distortion', including China at 1.13, India at 1.1, and Japan at 1.06 and rising.

Your assertion about Japan's ratio is proven false in spite of your handwaving the facts away. China's being the highest does nothing to change the situation in either country.

It is a problem, it is going to remain a problem, and whatever point you are making, is obsured by your using denier tactics.

I think you should go back and re-read your links. They don't say what you think they say.
 

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