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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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That's some balance to Forbes's usual op-ed fare. I particularly like the headline - "Remarkable Editorial Bias on Climate Science at the Wall Street Journal". We have at least one ally amongst Forbes's sub-editors :). Firstly, there's the irony, and secondly, it'll have attracted the attention of some deniers who'll assume the bias is in the other direction, another example of the mainstream media's pro-AGW position that they believe exists.

This is a very well-aimed shaft :

"But the most amazing and telling evidence of the bias of the Wall Street Journal in this field is the fact that 255 members of the United States National Academy of Sciences wrote a comparable (but scientifically accurate) essay on the realities of climate change and on the need for improved and serious public debate around the issue, offered it to the Wall Street Journal, and were turned down. The National Academy of Sciences is the nation’s pre-eminent independent scientific organizations. Its members are among the most respected in the world in their fields. Yet the Journal wouldn’t publish this letter, from more than 15 times as many top scientists. Instead they chose to publish an error-filled and misleading piece on climate because some so-called experts aligned with their bias signed it."

Peter Gleick's focus is admirable.

Likewise, one of my local area fishwraps had a surprizingly cogent and politically balanced exposition of science deniers on both sides of the political aisle.

A remarkable piece. I think I'll follow this Oregon fishwrap - the Mail Tribune, "Discover Life Daily". But not life as I know it :)
 
"Global warming since 1995 'now significant' "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13719510

It's telling that deniers have been clutching at every short-term expedient that's come along since at least 2005. Finding the earliest date with less than 95% significance, with that being 93%, wasn't going to hold up for long. Of course we'll still be hearing about it, with or without use of "significant", for years to come.

The 2000's were the Golden Age of denial, and the deniers will not want to leave its comforts behind. Their graphs will come to an abrupt stop in 2009 from no on, mark my words :).
 
Nonsense. More data manipulation and questionable statical methods. There's been no statistical warming in the last 10 years and the IPCC predictions have proven demonstrably false.
Nice to see that you apply unsupported generalisations as well as always, I was going to comment further, but I see others already have.
 
And when we add last year it won't be. 2010 was a warm year, that's not unusual. The fact that alarmists are so desperate to include it is very telling.

Obviously, your grasp of even the basics of statistical analysis still leaves significant room for improvement.

2011, globally averaged surface temperatures place year as 11th warmest in the modern instrument record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

Included in the consideration of the data of the preceeding 16 years we see a statistical significance of 96.8% (which is actually several points above significance levels indicated if we stop with the 2010 data. "desperate" is in itself, a very telling choice of words.
 
And when we add last year it won't be. 2010 was a warm year, that's not unusual. The fact that alarmists are so desperate to include it is very telling.
Citation? Or just more claims without evidence?
 
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And when we add last year it won't be. 2010 was a warm year, that's not unusual. The fact that alarmists are so desperate to include it is very telling.

How do you intend to exclude it? 2010 happened. So did 2011, the warmest La Nina-dominated year ever. We're into 2012 now.

The "no statistically significant warming since 1995" refers to 2009 data. The start date was deliberately chosen to give a 93% significance. Significance is based not only on the amount of change but the number of data points. As more data points have been added the significance has edged up. It would have required 2011 to be an impossibly cold year (something like 1956 climate at least) for the significance to get back below 95%.

You'll have heard about thirty years being needed to judge trends in climate. That's because you need (conservatively) that many data-points to separate signal from noise in climate. The fact that there's been statistically significant surface warming since 1995 (only sixteen years) indicates that the change is rapid enough that rather less than thirty years of data-points are required. More than sixteen, no doubt (1998 was a serious outlier, and we don't see those very often), but maybe twenty-five? Certainly more than the 10-12 year period so popular with deniers.

2010 was a warm year relative to 1995 for no particular reason, apart from the fact that sixteen years of AGW have moved the baseline up. They were very similar years except that there's a lot less summer sea-ice in the Arctic these days.
 
If anyone is really interested in the 'serious science' rather than the 'pseudoscience' sites (:rolleyes:), then this is the site for you:

AGW Observer
 
One can deny reality till you're blue in the face ...

No doubt about that, I've seen it done. It wan't pretty, but it was hilarious to watch.

... but it will still be waiting outside the window...

One resort being to cover the windows and not go outside. If one lives in a basement to start with then half the work is done.

Until the water comes ...

One can shut out the light, but there's no freakin' way to shut out the waters of the world when they want to come in. There's a reason why Noah's Ark is such an enduring legend.
 
No, you didn't.

We most certainly did. Global Warming alarmism isn't new.

What we'll most likely be talking about in 2020 is how accurate the models have turned out to be over four decades, how much more quickly AGW's visible effects have developed and how the deniers are still bleating on about "no recent significant warming".

Which would be entirely inconsistent with any other field of science. Especially when we're talking about computer modeling.


No more mention will be made of the "long-term cooling trend" we entered in 2005 - not by deniers anyway, by then they'll have us in an entirely new long-term warming trend. Some of us might bring it up.

It's not trending in any significant way.


I predict you'll be engaged in a multi-page rearguard action after saying something dumb, and insisting that words and phrases mean what you say they do and not what the rest of the English-speaking world thinks they do.

Complete nonsense.


Given the age of most deniers I think we can safely predict there'll be fewer of them. With luck I'll be here to comment on how well my predictions turn out.

Since "denier" is nothing more than a label alarmists currently like to call skeptics I suspect it will decline in proportion to the decline in alarmists.

Regarding the science which RealClimate http://www.realclimate.org/ is suppressing by not commenting on it, have you found any examples yet?

There are literally countless studies.

It shouldn't be hard to find. If sixteen (count them, sixteen) scientists can get an open letter printed in a Murdoch mouthpiece then some actual science is bound to get coverage.

I can already feel the breeze from RealCrapClimate.com trying to hand wave this away. Let the denial begin.
 
That's some balance to Forbes's usual op-ed fare. I particularly like the headline - "Remarkable Editorial Bias on Climate Science at the Wall Street Journal". We have at least one ally amongst Forbes's sub-editors :). Firstly, there's the irony, and secondly, it'll have attracted the attention of some deniers who'll assume the bias is in the other direction, another example of the mainstream media's pro-AGW position that they believe exists.

This is a very well-aimed shaft :



Peter Gleick's focus is admirable.



A remarkable piece. I think I'll follow this Oregon fishwrap - the Mail Tribune, "Discover Life Daily". But not life as I know it :)

Yeah, I occassionally try to pull myself out of the journals and read a bit of the more popular press. Oregon's a beautiful state, but it has more than it's share of eccentric characters (like progressive Republicans! ;) )
 
If anyone is really interested in the 'serious science' rather than the 'pseudoscience' sites (:rolleyes:), then this is the site for you:

AGW Observer

Fully Agreed. Ari's site is one I would heartily recommend, in the spite of my general science blog boycott. I must confess that I rarely read the comments added by others, but his collection and reviews of published climate papers are a resource that none should be without. I used to run into Ari on BAUT quite regularly, but over the last year, our schedules must have become disjointed.
 
Obviously, your grasp of even the basics of statistical analysis still leaves significant room for improvement.

I wouldn't deny that, there's already room for improvement. It's a relative measure though and here at least it's obviously superior.
2011, globally averaged surface temperatures place year as 11th warmest in the modern instrument record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

And once added it takes the now 17 year average below statistical significance. You've been mislead because you don't understand how the data is being manipulated.

Included in the consideration of the data of the preceeding 16 years we see a statistical significance of 96.8% (which is actually several points above significance levels indicated if we stop with the 2010 data. "desperate" is in itself, a very telling choice of words.

And add the 10 years before that and it's statistically insignificant.

Again, you don't understand how the data is being manipulated.

The climate goes through natural periods of variation. Some years are warmer and some years are cooler. By selecting data on on side of the upswing we can "prove" the climate is warming. Select data on the downswing side and we can show it's cooling. This is why we typically use 30 years and average over that because ideally this is long enough for both the upswing and the downswing in the natural climate oscillation.

I can't make it any simpler than that.

Alarmists are just up in arms with the fact that now that we truly have "modern instruments" ie; satellite data the empirical evidence doesn't match their model predictions. It's not a matter of "hiding the decline", it's desperate hand waving trying to hide the fact that there's been no significant change.
 
How do you intend to exclude it? 2010 happened. So did 2011, the warmest La Nina-dominated year ever. We're into 2012 now.

It wasn't excluded? It was a 15 year period, from 1995-2009. You're probably confused because you're thinking 2009-1995 = 14.
The "no statistically significant warming since 1995" refers to 2009 data. The start date was deliberately chosen to give a 93% significance. Significance is based not only on the amount of change but the number of data points. As more data points have been added the significance has edged up. It would have required 2011 to be an impossibly cold year (something like 1956 climate at least) for the significance to get back below 95%.

It was chosen because 15 is a round number, at least when we're talking about decadal changes.

You'll have heard about thirty years being needed to judge trends in climate. That's because you need (conservatively) that many data-points to separate signal from noise in climate. The fact that there's been statistically significant surface warming since 1995 (only sixteen years) indicates that the change is rapid enough that rather less than thirty years of data-points are required. More than sixteen, no doubt (1998 was a serious outlier, and we don't see those very often), but maybe twenty-five? Certainly more than the 10-12 year period so popular with deniers.

It's popular because it's the beginning of more accurate data.

2010 was a warm year relative to 1995 for no particular reason, apart from the fact that sixteen years of AGW have moved the baseline up. They were very similar years except that there's a lot less summer sea-ice in the Arctic these days.

The particular reason is because the temperature oscillates. In fact you would almost expect a difference of 15 or 16 years to yield the greatest difference in a 30 year period which is the generally agreed upon duration to measure climate change.
 
Nonsense. More data manipulation and questionable statical methods. There's been no statistical warming in the last 10 years and the IPCC predictions have proven demonstrably false.

This particular gem deserves an old image of mine

 
Since "denier" is nothing more than a label alarmists currently like to call skeptics I suspect it will decline in proportion to the decline in alarmists.

Actually, denialism is an established concept used in scientific literature, in contexts of climate change, vaccines, evolution, holocaust etc. Se for example:

http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/19/1/2.full

http://www.deepdyve.com/lp/elsevier...nge-among-conservative-white-males-ANwEUKQmMh

http://www.deepdyve.com/lp/nature-publishing-group-npg/state-of-denial-VKwWkFL33l

Here's one more text on the subject: it's not from a scientific publication, but it's in my opinion a great to-the-point summary of denialism:

http://www.denialism.com/2007/03/what-is-denialism.html

There are literally countless studies.

Still waiting for you to come up with the examples you promised in your "challenge" (4th time, i think).

I'll tell you what, I'll give you an example of the political agenda driven pieces at RealCrapClimate.com and then you try to find similar ones at Nature? How does that sound?
Sounds great!! Lets try that. I'm all ears.


As well as the answers (9th time) to my questions.

If i ask you to tell us how the very arguments you use for claiming the linked article is pseudoscience actually apply to the article in question, i'm shifting goal posts??

Nope, i most certainly am not. So, for the sixth time:
Could you please point out what in that text, which is a commentary about a confrence, and in your own words, has nothing to do with climate science....

- makes science and idology unseparable (and/or)
- misrepresents scientific findings to promote or draw attention for publicity (and/or)
- distorts the facts of science for short-term political gain

...because i can not find anything in that article that would fit any of the above??

As far as these latter are concerned, i would count your failure to reply as an admission that you were wrong, if you fail to reply after i have to ask for and answer once more after this, without getting a reply. Not getting an answer after ten repeat attempts should be enough for this conclusion (i'll keep asking about the challenge until we reach repetition number ten too).
 
This isn't the global average

Yes it is the global average temperature anomaly from NCDC.

and it's one of hundreds of data sets.

Well, I can get the surface temperature anomalies from NASA or Hadley Centre. The results would be very close.
If you post a link to 20 of those "hundreds" I'll make the graphs myself, and we can see if they differ.
 
It's actually no "statistical warming", which in layman terms means there was some but not enough to get alarmed about.

Actually it's "no statistically significant change to the warming trend", which of course is a good deal different than "no warming" or even "not much warming".
 
I wouldn't deny that, there's already room for improvement. It's a relative measure though and here at least it's obviously superior.

Forgive me for failing to recognize the obvious. Please demonstrate that which you consider to be apparent.

And once added it takes the now 17 year average below statistical significance. You've been mislead because you don't understand how the data is being manipulated.

How does adding more data reduce the statistical significance of the findings resulting from standard and recognized data analysis processes?

Adding data which indicates that we had one of the top 20 warmest years of the last ~130 years, even if it had been the lowest of those 20 years, doesn't reduce the statistical significance of the findings. You might lower a short-term trend or even reverse the direction of a short-term trend with the addition of more data, but the addition of good data almost always increases the statistical significance of the analysis finding.

The problem that kept the findings from analysis of the period of 1995-2009 from achieving 95% significance isn't so much the values of the yearly data, it is that there simply wasn't enough data to yeild 95% or better significance to the findings. Adding good data (whether it is the data from the last two years or the 10 years prior to 1995) adds to the statistical significance of the findings (regardless of whether your analysis of the data indicates up, down or flat)

And add the 10 years before that and it's statistically insignificant.

This seems to be the result of a fundemental flaw in understanding regarding the language and terminology of Statistics.

The following is the NCDC record of the top 20 warmest years of the last ~130 years, in order, warmest first:
1) 2005
2) 2010
3) 1998
4) 2003
5) 2002
6) 2006
7) 2009
8) 2007
9) 2004
10) 2001
11) 2011
12) 2008
13) 1997
14) 1999
15) 1995
16) 2000
17) 1990
18) 1991
19) 1988
20) 1987

Again, you don't understand how the data is being manipulated.

You are correct, I don't understand the details of how you feel that the data has been improperly and disingenuously manipulated. I know of no compelling evidence suggesting such and yet I know of several compelling supportive analyses which seem to indicate that there has been no untoward or improper data handling.

The climate goes through natural periods of variation. Some years are warmer and some years are cooler. By selecting data on on side of the upswing we can "prove" the climate is warming. Select data on the downswing side and we can show it's cooling.


This is why we typically use 30 years and average over that because ideally this is long enough for both the upswing and the downswing in the natural climate oscillation.

The first four sentences above are fair representations of mainstream understandings. The last sentence is largely accurate but is phrased in a manner that might lead to mistaken impressions. How you are using or distorting these statements in an attempt to support non-mainstream assertions and assessments is actually a textbook example of "pseudoscience," but perhaps I am just misunderstanding your application of the English language.

The primary reason that 30 years is used as a minimal time frame for good analysis is the basic statistical precept that rigor in analysis requires at least a sample size of 30. The more the better, and you can produce significant and compelling analyses with smaller sample sizes, but for broad-based rigor and good analysis within the spectrum of well established statistical analysis techniques, it is a general rule to have sample sizes of at least 30 data points.

I can't make it any simpler than that.

Simple is not the issue, though I suspect that you are under-estimating your capabilities.

Alarmists are just up in arms with the fact that now that we truly have "modern instruments" ie; satellite data the empirical evidence doesn't match their model predictions. It's not a matter of "hiding the decline", it's desperate hand waving trying to hide the fact that there's been no significant change.

Your beliefs seem at odds with the demonstrable facts of reality.

[Sample size of 30 - is a statistical RoT, when you have a sample size of 30, the 95% confidence interval for the mean is 1/3 of the standard deviation. So if your analysis of 30 data points produced a mean of 10 and a st dev of 3, then you can be 95% confident that the true/absolute mean is between 9 and 11.]

A few references that some might find interesting

"Distinct Global Patterns of Strong Positive and Negative Shifts of Seasons over the Last 6 Decades" - http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperDownload.aspx?paperID=17129

"Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity" - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x/full

"No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside
mitigated climate change" - http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/3/1/2012/esd-3-1-2012.pdf

"Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice" - http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20111110_NewClimateDice.pdf
 
Actually, denialism is an established concept used in scientific literature, in contexts of climate change, vaccines, evolution, holocaust etc.
Here's one more text on the subject: it's not from a scientific publication, but it's in my opinion a great to-the-point summary of denialism:

Then you know exactly why it walks in step with alarmism.

Still waiting for you to come up with the examples you promised in your "challenge" (4th time, i think).

I've already cites good examples in this thread. You've ignored them.

As well as the answers (9th time) to my questions.

For the 10th time it's been answered, see below.
As far as these latter are concerned, i would count your failure to reply as an admission that you were wrong, if you fail to reply after i have to ask for and answer once more after this, without getting a reply. Not getting an answer after ten repeat attempts should be enough for this conclusion (i'll keep asking about the challenge until we reach repetition number ten too).
Nonsense. You're failure to acknowledge the evidence is telling.
 
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