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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Let me get this straight: you're saying that extraordinary claims ought to be treated with no greater skepticism or scrutiny than mundane claims?

Say two kids show up at school without their homework.

One of them tells the teacher, "I forgot to take my book home last night, so I didn't do my homework."

The other says, "a tyrannosaurus rex came into my room last night and ate my homework after I'd gone to bed."

Are you saying that in that case the teacher should accept both stories as equally honest accounts, and not make any more special inquiry into the one with the extraordinary claim?

Do not fall into the trap of the deceptive UFOlogist. The teacher does not need to make "special" inquiry for the T - rex claim.

The first boy's claim requires no more than his testimony because the claim goes no further than himself. If he blames a third party, corroborating evidence is necessary regardless of whether it is his parents making him plow the south 40 acres or the T-Rex story. So corroboration is the standard whenever a third-party blame is invoked.

The teacher can call the parents. The teacher can look at the dog poo with the homework embedded in it. The teacher isn't going to need to take even that much effort with the T-Rex story because it would be all over the news, the ground would be shaking, and terrified people would be fleeing, etc.

So upon inspection the teacher logically has to take more effort in disproving a mundane claim than a fantastical one because corroborating evidence for the spectacular claim must necessarily be at hand without even looking for it.
 
So upon inspection the teacher logically has to take more effort in disproving a mundane claim than a fantastical one because corroborating evidence for the spectacular claim must necessarily be at hand without even looking for it.

Yes, the teacher is quite entitled to dismiss the T-Rex without investigating, it's down to the child to show evidence for their spectacular claim. The null hypothesis in this thread is:

All UFOs have a mundane explanation

If someone wants to claim that this is not so its down to them to provide the evidence for aliens/ghosts/witches.

ETA: realized I had misread AlaskaBushPilot's post and was arguing with something I agreed with so I cut out part of the first sentence.
 
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It's almost impossible to understand what you're trying to say in amongst all the waffle, but the gist of it seems to be "ECREE is nonsense and here's why".

That'll end well.


Not Exactly,


He says, just before saying exactly the same thing.


Requiring extraordinary skepticism is different than requiring extraordinary evidence.


Since 'extraordinary skepticism' seems to be nothing more than a silly term you made up yourself to go with the rest of your silly arguments, I'll take your word for it.


As for ECREE, the evidence for extraordinary claims just ends up being deemed extraordinary in a subjective way, but it's not a "requirement" other than to convince someone is highly biased.


No, although I'll grant you that the term extraordinary may be somewhat subjective, or perhaps more accurately, contextual.

I can accept that to a Papuan tribesman a claim of a giant, noisy bird that could transport his entire family to a village three days walk away in a matter of minutes would indeed be an extraordinary claim, and that to him, a common garden Blackhawk helicopter would be extraordinary evidence for that claim.

But we here in Jreffia are worldly and educated members of a sophisticated, technology-based society and to us, 'extraordinary' obviously means something quite different from what it means to the Korowai. Think 'alien raygun' and you might be on the right track.

Referring to this as being 'highly biased' in order to try and sustain your argument is intellectually bankrupt


From an objective point of view the evidence may not be extraordinary at all.


Stop weaseling. The only point of view that you need to concern yourself with is that of the people you are here to try and convince. That, folo, is your 'objective'.


In other weasel words any claim, including so-called extraordinary claims simply requires sufficient evidence, and such evidence may or may not be extraordinary.
my strikingness

For mundane claims:
sufficient evidence = mundane evidence​

For extraordinary claims:
sufficient evidence - extraordinary evidence.​


It's not that hard, folo, despite your (and Rramjet's before you) concerted attempts at obfuscation.


For example it was once thought to be an extraordinary idea that streaks of light in the sky were caused by rocks from space. Then we found the rocks ... and they're just rocks ... there's nothing extarordinary about them ... space it littered with them.


What you're dishonestly trying to do here is place the claim in the context of people who had no understanding of the way the cosmos worked and the evidence in the context of people like us who know all about such things as bolides.

When the first meteorites were found and identified they were not 'just rocks'. They turned out to be extraordinary evidence for what had until then been an extraordinary claim.


The only thing that made the evidence extraordinary at the time was the subjective bias of those who didn't subscribe to the rocks from space theory.


Codswallop.

Expressing doubt in something that had previously never been shown to exist is not 'subjective bias'.
 
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It's almost impossible to understand what you're trying to say in amongst all the waffle, but the gist of it seems to be "ECREE is nonsense and here's why".


Not Exactly,
You're going to deny that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence?!


Yes. I always have.


EachWayBet.jpg


In Kangastan this is what we call an each way bet. Good fun on a Saturday afternoon down at the pub, not such a good look in a debate on a sceptical forum.
 
NOTE: Questions directed at me via a third party will not appear in my inbox and I won't notice them until I happen to log in on my own. If you need a direct response, please reply to one of my posts.



Every morning I open a tab, click on my bookmark for the JREF forum (for which I've set the "keep me logged in" option), click on a subforum of interest to me, click on the "view unread posts" button of any thread I'm participating in and read all the latest posts.

Clearly I'm doing it all wrong.

That makes two of us then.


Fourthed.

I'll have a fifth.


Sounds good. Let's have a little drinkie while we wait for folo to explain what the hell he's talking about.


TangoFoxtrot.jpg
 
RoboTimbo,

To keep your question in context, I offer this as replacement:


How is rewording someone else's question 'keeping it in context'? Who elected you Arbiter of Context anyway?


Would you consider eyewitness evidence sufficient to convince you of the existence of something? The most obvious answer is that if you were the eyewitness it certainly could but not necessarily be sufficient.


That's not the most obvious answer at all.

The most obvious answer to either the question you were asked or the one you saw fit to replace it with would not be a two-part one with the first part being the imposition of a very special set of conditions on the second part.


If you haven't seen it yourself, then it should become a matter of probabilities. Sometimes those probabilities can approach certainty for all practical purposes, but it's still not the same as seeing it yourself.


The only thing obvious about your answer is that it needs more maple syrup.
 
Then are the thousands of firsthand eyewitnesses to UFOs ( witches ) enough to convince you of their existence?

Quantity alone can but does not necessarily increase the probability of accuracy.



So with all of the extraordinarily high quality witnesses to UFOs ( witches ) throughout history, and the fact that they've been proven in courts of law ( triers of fact ), do you believe in UFOs ( witches ) or not?

Quantity is a factor but that factor may be of more or less value depending on how the details of the various observations and investigations affect the probability of an accurate answer.



So the quantity of witnesses to UFOs do or don't enter into your confidence of anything?


<silence> came the stern reply.​
 
I'm sorry but I missed the toxic bit. Can someone fill me in? I know, rather lazy of me. :D
 
I'm sorry but I missed the toxic bit. Can someone fill me in? I know, rather lazy of me. :D


EHocking,

Never seen it before ... on my screen it's not where that screenshot you have shows it should be unless I scroll up to the thread link first and click on it. But that's not my process and I doubt I'll start doing it. I get email updates with a preview and if it catches my attention I hit the link and it takes me directly to the post. So maybe I don't get all the alerts or the preview has some toxic element that causes me to simply delete it.

I'm not entirely sure, but I think 'toxic element' is a euphemism for either GeeMack or Akhenaten
 

I'm not entirely sure, but I think 'toxic element' is a euphemism for either GeeMack or Akhenaten

Thanks. I did have a look for it but couldn't find the reference.

So, he only responds to posts that quote him and he also ignores posts by certain people or posts that have a "toxic element"?

What a researcher.
 
I'm not entirely sure, but I think 'toxic element' is a euphemism for either GeeMack or Akhenaten


Or John Albert...


Apologies, amigo. :)

There are probably others as well so I might make a little list with a view to starting a new User-Created Social Group.

The Toxic Element has rather a nice ring to it, I reckon.


Thanks. I did have a look for it but couldn't find the reference.

So, he only responds to posts that quote him and he also ignores posts by certain people or posts that have a "toxic element"?

What a researcher.


Well that's you on the list, for sure.

;)
 
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Apologies, amigo. :)

There are probably others as well so I might start a little list with a view to starting a new User-Created Social Group.

The Toxic Element has rather a nice ring to it, I reckon.





Well that's you on the list, for sure.

;)

I'll take that as a compliment. :) Thanks folo.
 
I'm not entirely sure, but I think 'toxic element' is a euphemism for either GeeMack or Akhenaten
Is there any word in the English language that means what it used to?
I'm genuinely losing track.

I suppose I should ask Mr Foogy;
My Foogy, biscuit padlock countess the see you next tuesday crampon that doodles treble clef?
 
Is there any word in the English language that means what it used to?
I'm genuinely losing track.

I suppose I should ask Mr Foogy;
My Foogy, biscuit padlock countess the see you next tuesday crampon that doodles treble clef?
Antipragmatic. There's a word that still means what it used to.








Because it never used to exist until Mr Foogy made it up! :sdl:
 

I'm not entirely sure, but I think 'toxic element' is a euphemism for either GeeMack or Akhenaten

I thought it was directed at me. I'm surprised that he's replied to me as much as he has the past couple of days.

Can I be Treasurer of the Toxic Element? As long as Treasurer now means Keeper of the Beer.
 
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