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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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For instance McIntyre's attempts to effectively mount a science worlds version of a denial-of-service attack by swamping CRU with FOI requests. He posted up the form letter for his readers to swamp them with requests, each one asking for details about six countries, all different on each request, but amounting to the same information. Despite the release of all the data he has been strangely quiet about actually using it, whereas Tamino took about a week to work out his own model that used the data.

Or his crusade about UHI which turned into yet another bust...

It's also worth noting that the FOI requests were ultimately denied, not by the CRU but the information officer assigned to evaluate the eligibly of the request under UK FOI laws.
 
...Lysenkoism was bogus science because Lysenko misrepresented his methods and worked to suppress alternative views.

Which is a perfect description of Stephen McIntyre and what he attempts to do in every post upon his blog, the only difference is that the "alternative view" Mr McIntyre wants to suppress happens to be the mainstream scientific perspective of the issue he misrepresents.
 
For instance McIntyre's attempts to effectively mount a science worlds version of a denial-of-service attack by swamping CRU with FOI requests...
Did not happen, as McIntyre demonstrates in this post.
Or his smearing of climate scientists, one particular classic was to equate the investigation into Michael Mann's e-mails with investigation into the activities of Jerry Sandusky.
No. That's a criticism of the Penn State investigarion process.
 
You have no evidence of that. Evidence against is the BEST program, which gathered in all the raw data it could find. The power you assign to Mann and Jones to control all climate data gathered across the world is ludicrous, but does reflect the efforts of McIntyre to persuade people that it's all down to a few super-villains. They can skew peer-review in all science journals (they can't), they can make Arctic sea-ice retreat by altering data (they can't), they can force everybody to only use a few selected tree-ring sequences when doing climate research (they can't), and they do this all in the service of making money for themselves (they don't do it at all, because they can't).
That does not accurately describe McIntyre's assertions about Mann and Jones. One key is the exaggeration "all" ("all climate data", "all science journals").
Of course McIntyre makes accusations of "whitewash" in all the investigations (there have been at least seven), but he has no evidence.
He offers abundant evidence. For example, why, as the aggrieved party in Mann and Jones denial of data, did neither the Muir Russell inquiry into Jones nor the Penn State investigation into Mann contact McIntyre? Why did not Muir Russell, charged with investigating, among other issues, Jones' email deletions, ask Jones about deleting emails?
Mann, Jones and scientists around the world collaborate to produce ever better science1. They have many, many papers to their names produced with many other scientists (science is very much a group activity these days).

McIntyre has only one approach - slander climate scientists. And you accuse scientists of "ad hominems"? Are you referring to what was said about McIntyre in private2? McIntyre is a slimeball3, so there's nothing intrinsically wrong in saying so.

All the data is available4. The analysis is all described and reproducible. Even the code is available. Nowhere does your grand conspiracy emerge - but then you're not saying there's a conspiracy, are you? Just confirmation bias, which is making Arctic sea-ice retreat (I kid, it's really not), and the lust for money.

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Meanwhile the climate changes5. Nothing ever changes in the denier world6, though.
1. That's at issue. You presume the conclusion.
2. Yes. And to various writers for science magazines.
3. Based on what example of his observable behavior? Link?
4. I guess that "proprietary" excuse is no longer operable, huh?
5. It always has and always will. If anything, it's people who manipulated the data to eliminate the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age who deny climate change.
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It's also worth noting that the FOI requests were ultimately denied, not by the CRU but the information officer assigned to evaluate the eligibly of the request under UK FOI laws.

That does tend to be ignored. This evaluation would have emerged more quickly had UEA been as lawyered-up as a typical US university (or any US institution, really : never has a society been so hag-ridden by lawyers as the US).

Of course, the reason for the FoI requests was to give the impression that something nefarious was being concealed and McIntyre (in his mission to save us all) was pushed to them in extremis. There was never any expectation by McIntyre that the data would, in fact, reveal anything.

It says a lot that the deniers are chewing this 2000's-vintage cud again. That was their golden decade. This might cause a stir :

Researchers discover particle which could ‘cool the planet’
http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=7848

"Although these chemical intermediates were hypothesised in the 1950s, it is only now that they have been detected. Scientists now believe that, with further research, these species could play a major role in off-setting climate change."

That'll get some heart-rates up; it even involves clouds, which are such great favourite of the denier cult. Remember you heard it here first :).
 
That does not accurately describe McIntyre's assertions about Mann and Jones. One key is the exaggeration "all" ("all climate data", "all science journals").

I wasn't responding to McIntyre, I was responding to your words, which were

By cherry-picking tree rings, "adjusting" thermometer measurements, and skewing the peer-review process, Mann, Jones, and their friends sabotaged the feedback process.

"Skewing the peer-review process" to "sabotage the feedback process" does imply that Mann, Jones "and their friends" (no names?) can indeed dictate to all journals and all rival scientists what data they can use. In reality, a tree-ring sequence doesn't become unacceptable because Mann didn't use it in his original reconstruction and Jones can't dictate what data research groups gather (paying for it if necessary) and process. They don't have any oversight of peer-review around the world.

Something McIntyre has told you is that Mann cherry-picked tree-ring data in his original reconstruction to get the result he did. That accusation has a long history, McIntyre has never presented any valid evidence for it, and, of course, the Mann et al reconstruction has been confirmed many times over by unrelated research groups in a number of countries using entirely new data and different (but valid) statistical methods.

Doesn't it strike you as odd that the deliberately manipulated reconstruction which you believe in has turned out to be essentially correct? Doesn't this throw some doubt on McIntyre's cherry-picking accusation?

As for adjusting temperature records (something else I expect you got from McIntyre), the BEST program used raw data. It seems the adjustments are not to blame for global warming.

He offers abundant evidence. For example, why, as the aggrieved party in Mann and Jones denial of data, did neither the Muir Russell inquiry into Jones nor the Penn State investigation into Mann contact McIntyre?

Because they were investigating accusations that the stolen emails revealed data manipulation and academic misconduct. They were not about McIntyre's FoI campaign. His accusations (along with all the others) were what prompted the investigations. All investigations have concluded that the accusations are without foundation - which they are.

McIntyre wasn't trying to get emails with his FoI campaign.

Why did not Muir Russell, charged with investigating, among other issues, Jones' email deletions, ask Jones about deleting emails?

I rather doubt that was in the inquiry's remit : do you have a source for that?

Of course that has nothing to do with McIntyre's FoI campaign, which is anyway sooooo last decade. Now he has the data and he doesn't want it.


1. That's at issue. You presume the conclusion.

It's not at all at issue : Mann and Jones are highly-respected scientists who have done (and are doing) great work with many colleagues. McIntyre is clinging to his glory days, when he made made himself an hero by promoting Mann as a villain. The "broken hockey-stick", that's what got him from nontentity to internet star.

2. Yes. And to various writers for science magazines.

I think you misunderstand what "ad hominem" means. Trash-talking does not an ad hominem make. An ad hominem argument would be, for instance, refusing to consider science because you regard the scientist behind it as fraudulent.

McIntyre, and the denial machine he's a prominent part of, has always depended on ad hominem arguments. Make the issue personal and attack the person.

3. Based on what example of his observable behavior? Link?

Try his website. He makes no secret of his nature.

4. I guess that "proprietary" excuse is no longer operable, huh?

When its value has expired. You should realise that all of this is about things which happened years ago.

5. It always has and always will.

You may well have grown up with the idea that it's quite normal for climate change to be a pervasive issue in political life. This is actually quite a new phaenomenon. As recently as the 70's nobody talked about climate change - they talked about the weather, of course (we Brits more than most), but climate has always been a given.

Ther reason why climate change has become of ever-increasing interest over the last thirty years is that it ain't normal.


If anything, it's people who manipulated the data to eliminate the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age who deny climate change.

No such things have occurred. McIntyre's told you that they have, but I think we all know what that's worth, don't we?

Mann et al's early reconstruction did not conceal the LIA, it simply showed it to be less impressive than people who'd never made any reconstructions desired. The LIA was meant to show that rapid climate change such as we're experiencing has always happened. Nothing to see here, move along. It was backed up by paintings of Frost Fairs and some really sub-standard history half-remembered from school. Washington's triumph at Trenton, that sort of thing. After some digging an exotic orchard in China was thown out there.

It's always struck me as amusing that AGW deniers assign so much climate influence to historic events when they're searching for evidence of the LIA/MWP/RWP while denying that it could possibly matter at all in the modern world. It demonstrates a familiar flexibility of mind.

The Medieval Warm Period was latched onto later (it has no connection with US history classes, but some people have nothing better to do than dig), and again does show up in reconstructions which go back that far. It's noteworthy that vulcanism in the latter 10thCE was unusually low, and this extended into the early 12thCE at least. A similar situation has obtained since the turn of the 20thCE. This has a warming influence insofar as it removes a cooling influence (from ash and sulphates mostly). The influence stops when the cooling influence disappears, which it does over a few decades. Those long summers of the 20's and 30's, cricket and cream-teas on the lawn, were very much of the MWP.

It's warmer now, and something's causing it. My money's on a cause which was not only predicted but is also based on the laws of physics.
 
Knitting isn't a science, it's a craft. I'm afraid if you don't see the difference between science and crafts we may have a problem.

I guess you still fail to see how your premise was completely flawed, how none of the arguments you gave had anything to do with pseudoscience?

No they don't, not in my book. If you're looking for some all encompassing definition of pseudoscience you won't find one.
I assume that means you admit that your attempt to describe pseudoscience at RealClimate was flawed. Also, it clearly seems that you use double standards: what is perfectly alright to you at Nature's or Science's site, is suddenly pseudoscience at RealClimate.

As far as the definition of pseudoscience goes, here's two decent ones for starters:
Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice which is presented as scientific, but does not adhere to a valid scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, cannot be reliably tested, or otherwise lacks scientific status.
**snip**
A field, practice, or body of knowledge can reasonably be called pseudoscientific when it is presented as consistent with the norms of scientific research; but it demonstrably fails to meet these norms.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoscience
Pseudosciences are practises that masquerade themselves as science but have little or no scientific rigour or cohesion to them. They claim to be factual and scientific, yet do not adhere to scientific methodology and principles; notably the scientific principle of falsifiability.
http://www.ukskeptics.com/article.php?article=pseudoscience.php&dir=articles

RealCrapClimate does distort the science however by selectively presenting the scientific studies of a few scientists.
No. Making a coverage selection is not distortion of science. If it was, every science web site that does not cover every article in the relevant field would be a pseudoscience site. If you still wish to resort to that argument, you need to at least convincingly show us that the percentage of referred "critical" climate science articles compared to "mainstream" articles is lower at RealClimate than in the scientific literature. My own hunch is that the opposite is probably the case: RealClimate gives more attention to the "critical" articles than their percentage in the literature would suggest.

Nonsense. This the same hand waving homeopaths and psychics make.
Saying something is nonsense does not make it so. I cannot prove that most people who link to that site do it for the reasons i mentioned (though that's the impression i have gotten so far), at least not without making a poll here, but i know at least that i personally do. And there's a solid logic behind the reasons i pointed out. On the other hand, you have shown no basis whatsoever for the opposite claim.

But while at it, if you want to be taken seriously with that argument, please show us a web site where homeopaths or psychics refer to peer reviewed scientific articles, link to the source papers, then explain their content in layman's terms. Of course, to match RealClimate, the authors also need to be publishing scientists in a relevant field.

Pure Denialism.
Again, saying so does not make it so. You have no evidence whatsoever to support your claims and until you do, you simply have no case. And you still have not answered my questions (3rd time now and counting):

Halsu said:
Could you please point out what in that text, which is a commentary about a confrence, and in your own words, has nothing to do with climate science....

- makes science and idology unseparable (and/or)
- misrepresents scientific findings to promote or draw attention for publicity (and/or)
- distorts the facts of science for short-term political gain

...because i can not find anything in that article that would fit any of the above??
 
Which is a perfect description of Stephen McIntyre and what he attempts to do in every post upon his blog, the only difference is that the "alternative view" Mr McIntyre wants to suppress happens to be the mainstream scientific perspective of the issue he misrepresents.
McIntyre has no power to suppress the publication of Briffa, Jones, Mann, et. al. Journals do not send to him submissions for review.
 
...Researchers discover particle which could ‘cool the planet’
http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=7848



That'll get some heart-rates up; it even involves clouds, which are such great favourite of the denier cult. Remember you heard it here first :).

Might buy us some time. Won't resolve the problems with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels or the resultant warming, but a few decades of time might be the difference between a couple of uncomfortable and difficult centuries and the complete collapse of western civilization and destruction of the global ecosystem.
 
I guess you still fail to see how your premise was completely flawed, how none of the arguments you gave had anything to do with pseudoscience?

Nonsense. It's completely accurate.
I assume that means you admit that your attempt to describe pseudoscience at RealClimate was flawed. Also, it clearly seems that you use double standards: what is perfectly alright to you at Nature's or Science's site, is suddenly pseudoscience at RealClimate.

Nonsense, Nature does not claim to be a climate science site.

As far as the definition of pseudoscience goes, here's two decent ones for starters:
Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice which is presented as scientific, but does not adhere to a valid scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, cannot be reliably tested, or otherwise lacks scientific status.


RealCrapClimate.com does not follow a valid scientific method for presenting climate science.

A field, practice, or body of knowledge can reasonably be called pseudoscientific when it is presented as consistent with the norms of scientific research; but it demonstrably fails to meet these norms.

Nobody said climate science was pseudoscience, RealCrapClimate.com is a pseudoscientific website.

Pseudosciences are practises that masquerade themselves as science but have little or no scientific rigour or cohesion to them. They claim to be factual and scientific, yet do not adhere to scientific methodology and principles; notably the scientific principle of falsifiability.


Indeed, RealCrapClimate.com claims to be a climate science site, but it is rife with political nonsense. It's pseudoscience.

No. Making a coverage selection is not distortion of science. If it was, every science web site that does not cover every article in the relevant field would be a pseudoscience site.

Indeed, there's more to it than just their selective presentation of climate science that makes it pseudoscience.

If you still wish to resort to that argument, you need to at least convincingly show us that the percentage of referred "critical" climate science articles compared to "mainstream" articles is lower at RealClimate than in the scientific literature.

No I don't. All I have to show is politics being touted in a "scientific website". I've checked in the past few days and there are more political articles on the front page of RealCrapScience.com than science.

Saying something is nonsense does not make it so. I cannot prove that most people who link to that site do it for the reasons i mentioned (though that's the impression i have gotten so far), at least not without making a poll here, but i know at least that i personally do. And there's a solid logic behind the reasons i pointed out. On the other hand, you have shown no basis whatsoever for the opposite claim.

Nonsense. It's a cargo cult of climate science and I don't really expect the followers to see it. They've drank the kool aid.

But while at it, if you want to be taken seriously with that argument, please show us a web site where homeopaths or psychics refer to peer reviewed scientific articles, link to the source papers, then explain their content in layman's terms. Of course, to match RealClimate, the authors also need to be publishing scientists in a relevant field.

You may feel psychics and homeopaths are legitimate science, but I assure you it's hokum.

Again, saying so does not make it so. You have no evidence whatsoever to support your claims and until you do, you simply have no case. And you still have not answered my questions (3rd time now and counting):

More hand waving a denial of the facts. This is the usual rhetoric from those engaged in pseudoscience.
 
McIntyre has no power to suppress the publication of Briffa, Jones, Mann, et. al. Journals do not send to him submissions for review.

I wonder why that is? oh yeah, it is called "peer" review, have McIntyre's peers found his critical scientific skills, technique and rigour to be wanting and lacking? DO you consider that "unfair?"
 
McIntyre has no power to suppress the publication of Briffa, Jones, Mann, et. al. Journals do not send to him submissions for review.[

All this tells us is that climate scientists don't find McIntyre's arguments convincing. If McIntyre were making convincing arguments, he would be asked to review papers and in fact could get papers rejected simply by virtue of having already convinced climate scientists to buy into some other explanation.

This is how science works, it's how all peer reviewed science works. The response by the CTers and psudoscientists is always to complain "the establishment" won't listen to them the McIntyre does
 
McIntyre is mentioned over 100 times in the climategate emails. One climate researcher dismisses him as a "bozo". Others speculate over his funding, and argue about whether to ignore or counterattack him—although some unnamed scientists acknowledge that his criticisms have merit.

A true bozo wouldn't be such a concern to the climate community.
 
McIntyre is mentioned over 100 times in the climategate emails. One climate researcher dismisses him as a "bozo". Others speculate over his funding, and argue about whether to ignore or counterattack him—although some unnamed scientists acknowledge that his criticisms have merit.

A true bozo wouldn't be such a concern to the climate community.

LOL!

Why is Jenny McCarthy a concern to public health officials, then? She's a bozo, (or is that "bimbo"), and she is telling people incorrect information that when acted upon is dangerous for both their own children and for the public at large, but by your "logic" should not rate any criticism.
 
McIntyre is mentioned over 100 times in the climategate emails. One climate researcher dismisses him as a "bozo". Others speculate over his funding, and argue about whether to ignore or counterattack him—although some unnamed scientists acknowledge that his criticisms have merit.

A true bozo wouldn't be such a concern to the climate community.
Nobody would deny that he has, on occasion, had valid points to raise that have caused revisions and have improved the data that the scientific investigations have been based on.

His general thrust has been to sow doubt on the data though, largely unfounded. The BEST study has been the latest to discount the idea that UHI distorts the temperature records.

His attacks on climate scientists have been the point that has caused the greatest ire. He posted up a template for a letter to use to lodge FOI requests, subsequent requests all used different countries in each request - there was little or no duplication between the requests. This is evidence of a directed attack of the CRU:

http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/25032/response/66822/attach/2/Response letter 199 100121.pdf

IIRC, at the time the CRU consisted of 13 full-time employees. Again, IIRC, each request takes a minimum of 18 man-hours to process, even when it's discounted! So getting 40+ FOI requests generates 720 man-hours of work, as a minimum, that's now workload than there are working hours. It doesn't take the brains of an arch-bishop to work out that accepting such a situation is untenable.
 
We disagree, here.
I suspect that you are answering some other post rather than mine.
Pseudoscience has a fairy precise definition.
Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice which is presented as scientific, but does not adhere to a valid scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, cannot be reliably tested, or otherwise lacks scientific status.[1] Pseudoscience is often characterized by the use of vague, exaggerated or unprovable claims, an over-reliance on confirmation rather than rigorous attempts at refutation, a lack of openness to evaluation by other experts, and a general absence of systematic processes to rationally develop theories.

Climate science is not pseudoscience.
Real Climate is a blog written by a group of climate scientists and mostly describing climate science papers and so it is very ignorant to call it a pseudoscience web site.

Real Climate is a blog written by team of scientists and mostly describing climate science papers and so it is very ignorant to call it a pseudoscience web site.


Watts Up With That is a blog written by a weatherman with guest posts and often describing climate science papers and so it is quite ignorant to call it a pseudoscience web site. The only "pseudoscience" aspect is Watts inability to understand that surface station temperatures are fairly reliable as shown several years ago when his list of best stations was shown by NOAA to have a similar trend to all stations. This has been confirmed lately by the BEST analysis.
 
McIntyre is mentioned over 100 times in the climategate emails. One climate researcher dismisses him as a "bozo". Others speculate over his funding, and argue about whether to ignore or counterattack him—although some unnamed scientists acknowledge that his criticisms have merit.
(My bolding)

Could you provide a quote from the stolen emails revealing the bolded part? We know that the likes of Spencer, Lindzen and Singer will credit his work, so reference to that counts for nothing.

McIntyre did identify an anomolous divergence in sea-surface temperatures from the late 40's, which was subsequently explained (not by McIntyre, of course) and corrected for. It's of no real significance but he sure did crow about it.

In fact McIntyre's "criticisms" have never otherwise been shown to have merit. Despite over a decade of effort he can't break the hockey-stick (although he often claims to have). When he complains about abuse of FoI he doesn't mean by himself, oddly enough. His complaints stemming from the stolen emails have been shown to be without merit, so he calls the enquiries whitewashes.

Yet still he has a devoted following. That's people for you. Not impressive en masse.

A true bozo wouldn't be such a concern to the climate community.

McIntyre was making it impossible not to hear him. He's a self-promoter with a lot of professional help. He's only a concern to people who think that the truth about AGW needs to be heard by more people, without the denial campaign drowning it out. I like him as a perfect example of how the denial-machine operates.

McIntyre is just a front-man, like Watts used to be as a TV weather-presenter.
 
McIntyre has no power to suppress the publication of Briffa, Jones, Mann, et. al.

Briffa, Jones, Mann et al don't have the power to suppress publication of anything, yet you've claimed that they are guilty of it, or at least attempting it. Do you yet have any evidence for your claim?

Chris de Freitas had the power to get complete rubbish published by abusing peer-review. McIntyre reoported on it extensively - the rubbish, I mean, and positively, not de Freitas and his pals' brigade of so-called reviewers. He took de Freitas's side when it came to a head (no surprises there).

Journals do not send to him submissions for review.

I'm sure E&E do. Otherwise, why would anybody ask his opinion? He's a propagandist with no qualifications, and is known for misrepresenting his own work and fitting his results to his initial desires. Perfect for E&E and the Murdoch media but no use to anybody else.
 
Might buy us some time.

One might think so, from the press release and some of the coverage, but I really don't think so. The Criegee biradicals were identified using hemi-demi-femtosecond type lasher flashes because their existence during reactions is so fleeting. They had been hypothesised in the 1950's as intermediaries in some processes. No practical application springs to mind.


Won't resolve the problems with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels or the resultant warming, but a few decades of time might be the difference between a couple of uncomfortable and difficult centuries and the complete collapse of western civilization and destruction of the global ecosystem.

If it helps, think of it as a re-structuring rather than a collapse. Heck, it works for bankers, and let's not forget that life simply thrives in a warmer world :).

It's the collapse of the denier-machine that I'm watching now. The evidence is all around us.
 
...It's the collapse of the denier-machine that I'm watching now. The evidence is all around us.

Comedy relief does serve an occassionally useful function, in the case of climate science denial, however, that particular theater of the absurd has already jumped the shark.
 
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