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PEAK OIL: Going Mainstream

Cool.

The faster, the better I say.

Germany is about to embark on their plan to run their industry on a couple of windmills and a hamster in a treadmill.

The faster reality gets jackhammered into the minds of the Green voters, the better it is for everybody and the environment.

The Green movement is split on the issue of nuclear power. Some people reluctantly accept that it may be the only way to keep the lights on. Others would prefer the lights to go out rather than build any more nuclear power stations which our descedents may well not be in any position to safely dismantle.

My own opinion is were *****d whatever happens.
 
Peak Oil will be here Any Day Now(tm).

Well it already happened "here" (in the United States) some time ago.

For the record, switching over to natural gas will only postpone peak oil production.

Meanwhile demand still increases. . . .

ETA: Or do you suppose fracking will lead to a doubling in U.S. oil production?

US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png


Image from Wiki Commons.
 
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Fracking is going to end up being prohibited. It causes long-term pollution of groundwater and triggers earthquakes.
 
Minor earth tremors but the pollution is an issue.

It is not clear whether the procedure only triggers minor tremors. We don't have major tremors in the UK. A trigger is a trigger. How big the thing it triggers is depends on the local geology, just as the size of an explosion depends on the amount of explosives rather than the type of detonator.
 
I find this comical. An article discussing a trend toward expensive and controversial new methods of extracting natural gas (primarily) -- presented as evidence that Peak Oil probably won't be here any day now.

It seems silly to even have to point it out: That sort of desperate flailing about for alternatives to conventional sources of light sweet crude is exactly what we'd expect to see around the time of the global peak in oil production.
 
I find this comical. An article discussing a trend toward expensive and controversial new methods of extracting natural gas (primarily) -- presented as evidence that Peak Oil probably won't be here any day now.

It seems silly to even have to point it out: That sort of desperate flailing about for alternatives to conventional sources of light sweet crude is exactly what we'd expect to see around the time of the global peak in oil production.

I know, any day now!!11!!1!

(Personally I think it will be next week, but maybe I'm a little too anxious)
 
I agree something must be done about the powering of society and quickly. I am not alone in this agreement, the market economy is hard on said "doing something". "Somethings" such as hybrid electric/gas cars are becoming more common, even out here in what was known as 'Jackass Flats'. Computing power is skyrocketing while price drops. I picked up a computer on eBay for just $40. It's not much but a netbook lappy for $40? Business is done by telecommuting on lappys at home by many office workers. They do meetings with software such as "Go To Meeting". Nibbles yes, enough nibbles can change the globe.
 
I cannot tell if you are joking or not about the cars and other things...

I agree something must be done about the powering of society and quickly. I am not alone in this agreement, the market economy is hard on said "doing something". "Somethings" such as hybrid electric/gas cars are becoming more common, even out here in what was known as 'Jackass Flats'. Computing power is skyrocketing while price drops. I picked up a computer on eBay for just $40. It's not much but a netbook lappy for $40? Business is done by telecommuting on lappys at home by many office workers. They do meetings with software such as "Go To Meeting". Nibbles yes, enough nibbles can change the globe.

I cannot tell if you are joking or not about the cars and other things .I read Colin Campbells' Scientific American article on "The End of Cheap Oil" in 1998 and it flat out resonated with me.

Even if we were roughly "only" a third of the way there instead of roughly half the way there(more likely), when one thinks about it all, it is so crazy. The stuff takes 500 million years to make and we are gonna' burn through it in 200 years? It's stupid any way ya' cut it.

The US has only 20 billion barrels of its own left, give or take, and yet we still burn 7 billion a year?!?!?!??!????!!!????

The economy is predicated on selling junk we don't need. It has to blow soon, by that I mean within the run of this century, has to.

Scary... No amount of hybriding is gonna' fix this one. I ride a bike everywhere and that sure ain't gonna' do it.... Scary scary scary.....
 
We are not running short of oil and/or oil producing assets. Not now, nor in the forseeable future. Israel is sitting on a Saudi-size oil reserve. In the US, the Bakken formation has up to a trillion barrels of recoverable oil, given appropriate technological advancements. Oil companies are making new discoveries all the time.

In addition, we have a five century supply of coal in the Alaska mountains alone that can be converted to oil economically via the Bessemer process.

And that's not even considering the growing evidence (and recent proof) that oil does not have to come from organic sources (abiotic oil).

http://viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html (click on link and scroll to bottom for PDF of actual paper

Reported in ScienceDaily, researchers at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm have managed to prove that fossils from animals and plants are not necessary for crude oil and natural gas to be generated. The findings are revolutionary since this means, on the one hand, that it will be much easier to find these sources of energy and, on the other hand, that they can be found all over the globe.

"Using our research we can even say where oil could be found in Sweden," says Vladimir Kutcherov, a professor at the Division of Energy Technology at KTH.

Together with two research colleagues, Vladimir Kutcherov has simulated the process involving pressure and heat that occurs naturally in the inner layers of the earth, the process that generates hydrocarbon, the primary component in oil and natural gas.

According to Vladimir Kutcherov, the findings are a clear indication that the oil supply is not about to end, which researchers and experts in the field have long feared.

Abiotic Oil

The abiotic oil formation theory suggests that crude oil is the result of naturally occurring and possibly ongoing geological processes. This theory was developed in the Soviet Union during the Cold War, as the Union needed to be self sufficient in terms of producing its own energy. The science behind the theory is sound and is based on experimental evidence in both the laboratory and in the field. This theory has helped to identify and therefore develop large numbers of gas and oil deposits. Examples of such fields are the South Khylchuyu field and the controversial Sakhalin II field.

In its simplest form, the theory is that carbon present in the magma beneath the crust reacts with hydrogen to form methane as well as a raft of other mainly alkane hydrocarbons. The reactions are more complicated than this, with several intermediate stages. Particular mineral rocks such as granite and other silicon based rocks act as catalysts, which speed up the reaction without actually becoming involved or consumed in the process.

Experiments have shown that under extreme conditions of heat and pressure it is possible to convert iron oxide, calcium carbonate and water into methane, with hydrocarbons containing up to 10 carbon atoms being produced by Russian scientists last century and confirmed in recent US experiments. The absence of large quantities of free gaseous oxygen in the magma prevents the hydrocarbons from burning and therefore forming the lower energy state molecule carbon dioxide. The conditions present in the Earth's mantle would easily be sufficient for these small hydrocarbon chains to polymerise into the longer chain molecules found in crude oil.

Vladimir Kutcherov adds that there is no way that fossil oil, with the help of gravity or other forces, could have seeped down to a depth of 10.5 kilometers in the state of Texas, for example, which is rich in oil deposits. As Vladimir Kutcherov sees it, this is further proof, alongside his own research findings, of the genesis of these energy sources -- that they can be created in other ways than via fossils. This has long been a matter of lively discussion among scientists.

"There is no doubt that our research proves that crude oil and natural gas are generated without the involvement of fossils. All types of bedrock can serve as reservoirs of oil," says Vladimir Kutcherov, who adds that this is true of land areas that have not yet been prospected for these energy sources.

But the discovery has more benefits. The degree of accuracy in finding oil is enhanced dramatically -- from 20 to 70 percent. Since drilling for oil and natural gas is a very expensive process, the cost picture will be radically altered for petroleum companies, and in the end probably for consumers as well.

"The savings will be in the many billions," says Vladimir Kutcherov.

To identify where it is worthwhile to drill for natural gas and oil, Vladimir Kutcherov has used his research to arrive at a new method. It involves dividing the globe into a finely meshed grid. The grid corresponds to fissures, so-called 'migration channels,' through underlying layers under the surface of the earth. Wherever these fissures meet, it is suitable to drill.

According to Vladimir Kutcherov, these research findings are extremely important, not least as 61 percent of the world's energy consumption derives from crude oil and natural gas.

The next step in this research work will involve more experiments, but above all refining the method will make it easier to find places where it is suitable to drill for oil and natural gas.

Vladimir Kutcherov, Anton Kolesnikov, and Alexander Goncharov's research work was recently published in the scientific journal Nature Geoscience.

There is no oil shortage, only a shortage of the political will to move forward with resource development in the face of the tree-worshiping neo-Druids who want to move humanity back 1000 years technologically for their own political and social reasons, aided and abetted by certain economic factions that want oil prices kept high to keep funneling increasing amounts of money to their coffers.
 
And that's not even considering the growing evidence (and recent proof) that oil does not have to come from organic sources (abiotic oil).
Can't tell you how relieved I am to hear that the "growing evidence" for abiotic oil has now graduated to "proof".

So there's one less thing to worry about.
 
We are not running short of oil and/or oil producing assets. Not now, nor in the forseeable future. Israel is sitting on a Saudi-size oil reserve. In the US, the Bakken formation has up to a trillion barrels of recoverable oil, given appropriate technological advancements. Oil companies are making new discoveries all the time.

In addition, we have a five century supply of coal in the Alaska mountains alone that can be converted to oil economically via the Bessemer process.

And that's not even considering the growing evidence (and recent proof) that oil does not have to come from organic sources (abiotic oil).

http://viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html (click on link and scroll to bottom for PDF of actual paper



There is no oil shortage, only a shortage of the political will to move forward with resource development in the face of the tree-worshiping neo-Druids who want to move humanity back 1000 years technologically for their own political and social reasons, aided and abetted by certain economic factions that want oil prices kept high to keep funneling increasing amounts of money to their coffers.

Muldar, Peak Oil is about the rate of oil production.

It is easier to pick the low hanging fruit than the rest. If the Bakken formation has so much oil, I guess it hasn't been economically recoverable, or else it would have been exploited.

I'd also suggest that your value of "up to a trillion barrels" seems significantly more optimistic than the USGS figures of 3-4.3 billion barrels.
 
You approach the extinction of a resource the very moment you harvest it faster than it can regenerate.

This is inevitably true of fish in a lake, timber in a forest or oil in the ground.

However oil, unlike fish and timber, takes millions of years to regenerate to any useful extent. Fish and timber stocks can be given 'a rest' that is useful and meaningful in human timeframes. Not so oil.

And finding new reserves of oil doesn't change this fact, it just gives a little breathing space.
 
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In addition, we have a five century supply of coal in the Alaska mountains alone that can be converted to oil economically via the Bessemer process.


Just spotted this.

When I was at secondary school, the Bessemer process was a means of making mild steel in a blast furnace.

I fail to see how that would be helpful in converting coal to oil.
 
As we've touched on before, a number of analysts are of the opinion that the point of peak production has already passed.

Indeed. A number of different factors conspired to make 2008 the probable point of peak oil. It was always going to be some time around now, but the banking crisis which started in September 2008 caused a drop-off in demand (and consequently of investment in future projects by the oil industry) and then the Deepwater Horizon disaster put the global deepwater drilling programme back by a couple of years. We will not be able to confirm the date of peak oil for absolute certain until about ten years after it has passed, but I'd say on balance it is probable that it will turn out to be 2008.
 
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Israel is sitting on a Saudi-size oil reserve.

Utter twaddle. For Israel to be sitting on a Saudi-size reserve, the entire country would have to be sitting on an oilfield. Israel has some untapped oil reserves, but most of it is in shales (much worse EROEI) and the total amount is nowhere near the amount Saudi started with.
 
Muldar, Peak Oil is about the rate of oil production.

Indeed. And the rate of oil production is directly related to the rate of oil discovery. It usually takes at least a decade between discovery and production getting seriously going.

peakoil_figure2.jpg


That is all you need to know in order to know peak oil is either already passed or coming very soon.
 
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