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Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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From P** - an insight to them ???

That seems like a fairly classic case of projection.

Holy Moly! Another prominent pro-guilt commentator exposes her underlying mental imbalance. I can't say I'm surprised in this instance: she's sometimes vying with Zorba to be the most disturbed pro-guilt commentator around.

I really do seriously think that an extremely interesting psychological/sociological study could be conducted into the internet commentary surrounding this case. Much of the behaviour on display is almost a case study in areas such as groupthink, desperation for group acceptance, the vindictiveness of mobs, the Dutch courage of anonymity, the deliberate use of multiple identities in an attempt to present multiple online personalities (Hi Stint7!) and the inflated grandiosity of little people from behind the cover of a keyboard (who, for example, could imagine that a lowly management accountant from the boondocks would be such a didactic expert!).

Its also interesting to see how many people are able to talk themselves into believing someone guilty on the basis of extraneous stuff which has nothing to with the crime.

It makes me wonder how many innocent people were convicted back in the bad old days before DNA. Its a common cliche that everyone in prison claims to be innocent - well, maybe historically alot of them were.
 
That seems like a fairly classic case of projection.



Its also interesting to see how many people are able to talk themselves into believing someone guilty on the basis of extraneous stuff which has nothing to with the crime.

It makes me wonder how many innocent people were convicted back in the bad old days before DNA. Its a common cliche that everyone in prison claims to be innocent - well, maybe historically alot of them were.

The only question is just how many were innocent. Apparently, in the period since DNA profiling has been available, one result has been, in cases where DNA capable of conclusive analysis has been recovered, the exoneration of one third of all original prime suspects. (I can't remember the exact source of this figure so I am open to correction).
 
John, that's an excellent summation of why the likelihood of Knox and Sollecito participating in the murder of Kercher is somewhere just South of 'not a chance'.

However, I tend to simplify things a bit. These two were dating for just over a week and by all accounts, deeply in love. They were clearly still very much infatuated with each other. On Nov 1 they were at Raffaele's place when two very unlikely things happened - at 20:18 Lumumba sends an SMS to Amanda informing her she doesn't have to work that evening and then, just 22 minutes later, at 20:40, Jovana Popovic stops by Raffaele's place to let him know she doesn't need him to give her a ride to the station. OK, so what do two young people do when they suddenly realize they are both free for the evening? Do they put up the Do Not Disturb sign and have an incredible, intimate evening together or do they decide to take the opportunity to get together with some drifter neither even knows and sexually assault and murder her friend and roommate?

When Giobbi and Mignini decided they didn't like Knox and Sollecito's behavior, they immediately penned them in as complicit in the murder. But they didn't bother to consider the logic of such a theory, or the lack thereof. There is simply no way these two did anything other than get high and make love that night.
 
The only question is just how many were innocent. Apparently, in the period since DNA profiling has been available, one result has been, in cases where DNA capable of conclusive analysis has been recovered, the exoneration of one third of all original prime suspects. (I can't remember the exact source of this figure so I am open to correction).

That's a believable enough figure, and add to that the historical naivete about false confessions, and the greater use of police coercion in obtaining confessions in the past. A third or more of prisoners could easily have been innocent of the crime for which they were convicted.
 
Its also interesting to see how many people are able to talk themselves into believing someone guilty on the basis of extraneous stuff which has nothing to with the crime.


Oh my dear chap, you should look at the current discussion on the conviction in the Lockerbie bombing case. Guilt by association, blackening of the character, all sorts of spurious inferences being read into this or that - but absolutely zero evidence connecting the accused to the actual crime.

Compared to that, the case against Knox and Sollecito was rational and justifiable. They were at least in the same country at the time the crime took place, I understand they were actually within a thousand miles of the crime scene! But it's amazing what you can do with a bit of charcter assassination.

Rolfe.
 
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I'm a chappess, but I will certainly take a look at the Lockerbie discussion. I don't know anything much about that case, but character assassination and guilt by association do certainly seem to be a common theme in wrongful convictions. You can see the first being used in spades against Amanda Knox, and the second against Sollecito. And yet the evidence against them remains strangely elusive...
 
I never bought the budget excuse for not recording the interviews. Digital audio recording is incredibly cheap. Video requires a bit more money, but is still less than few hours of overtime. But this was a murder in a town with a low crime rate. If you don't spend it then, well, when?

As for her being just a witness and not a suspect, who keeps witnesses overnight (presumably paying overtime)? Who interrogates witnesses for hours on end? Her story is short. She barely knew the victim, so the background she could offer was minimal.

It is pretty clear they were after something more and should have recorded it. And Mach, you only need transcriptions if you get something useful, in which case you are glad to pay the nominal cost.
 
Holy Moly! Another prominent pro-guilt commentator exposes her underlying mental imbalance. I can't say I'm surprised in this instance: she's sometimes vying with Zorba to be the most disturbed pro-guilt commentator around.

Which one was this? I went over and checked the past couple of pages and didn't see who originally posted it, though I did see some reference to it including the rather chilling demand of The Machine of one poster: 'Why did you want her to be innocent?'

I really do seriously think that an extremely interesting psychological/sociological study could be conducted into the internet commentary surrounding this case. Much of the behaviour on display is almost a case study in areas such as groupthink, desperation for group acceptance, the vindictiveness of mobs, the Dutch courage of anonymity, the deliberate use of multiple identities in an attempt to present multiple online personalities (Hi Stint7!) and the inflated grandiosity of little people from behind the cover of a keyboard (who, for example, could imagine that a lowly management accountant from the boondocks would be such a didactic expert!).

That's another explanation for the number of 'guests' at that site monitoring it 24/7 that Pilot was curious about recently. Such a study might already be underway. Or perhaps it has something to do with what I told SomeAlibi when he came over, back at the time I first created my account here... ;)

At any rate I doubt it is for their insightful commentary on the issue. How many over there actually know the totality of the case well enough to argue it? I'd guess SomeAlibi, Machiavelli and Michael, that's about it. The Machine just makes lists that can't be defended. Pilot only really posts about the meta-debate. The JREF originals who fled never knew the case well enough to argue it, they were just imparting the 'received wisdom' they acquired at PMF.

Five from this thread could take on the whole house real-time and expose them, which is in part why they cannot allow any dissenting posters. They don't know the case well enough to reach their inane conclusions, they all assume that someone else is informed enough, and that the group itself is wisdom.
 
That's a believable enough figure, and add to that the historical naivete about false confessions, and the greater use of police coercion in obtaining confessions in the past. A third or more of prisoners could easily have been innocent of the crime for which they were convicted.

That's why I slightly blanche when someone (even someone arguing for innocence in this or another case) says something like, "the courts get it right the vast majority of the time." What they mean is that, the vast majority of the time, the courts either get it right or no-one finds out.
 
There's been plenty said and written on the whole issue surrounding the likelihood of Knox and/or Sollecito being the "sort of people" who'd commit such a murder. FWIW, my views on the subject are as follows:

1) It's absolutely possible (although very rare in the whole universe of murders) for individuals with the same age profile, status, background and ostensible character traits as Knox and Sollecito to participate in brutal murders. It's therefore incorrect to assert that Knox or Sollecito simply couldn't have been involved owing to these factors alone.

2) However, I believe that it's unprecedented in recorded crime for two people who have been in a relationship for less than a week to engage in precipitously nefarious and dangerous behaviour that ends up in sexual assault and murder. For two people to engage in such behaviour necessitates either a very high level of mutual trust or a very high level of psychological control by one of the individuals over the other. It's all very well for ignorant pro-guilt commentators to cite Fred/Rose West, Karla Homolka/Paul Bernardo, Hindley/Brady etc, but there's an absolutely massive difference between these cases and Knox/Sollecito. All of those other couples had been in intense relationships for at least two years before they started offending together. And, incidentally, in all of those cases the male partner had prior history of engaging in extremely deviant solo behaviour prior to (and/or in the early stages of) the relationship with the partner. And by deviant I mean multiple theft, Peeping Tom activities, rape or murder.

3) So it's therefore appropriate to suggest that in the specific circumstances of the Kercher murder and the nascent level of the relationship between Knox and Sollecito (not to mention the Guede factor) it's extraordinarily unlikely that Knox and Sollecito would have mutually supported each other in the orgy of violence and sexual deviance that took place in the Perugia cottage that night. In fact, it's overwhelmingly more likely that the murder and sexual assault was the work of a sole deviant individual working alone and indulging his dark fantasies. That individual, of course, was Rudy Guede.

4) However, I would argue that it's still inappropriate to completely rule out the participation of Knox and Sollecito purely on the above grounds. No matter how vanishingly unlikely it is that they grouped up to murder Meredith, it's important to understand that this leaves a real (although tiny) chance that they were in fact involved. And that's where it's necessary to examine the evidence. In this case, there's zero evidence pointing towards the participation of Knox and/or Sollecito in Meredith's murder, and in fact - given that the ToD was probably between 9om and 9.30pm, and certainly before 10pm - there's every reason to believe that Knox and Sollecito were in Sollecito's apartment at the time of the murder.

5) Therefore, a combination of sociological analysis and an investigation of the evidence leads to two inescapable conclusions: a) Knox and Sollecito are absolutely definitely not guilty in law of the murder of Meredith Kercher; and b) the very strong likelihood is that neither Knox nor Sollecito had anything whatsoever to do with the murder.

This seems like one of the better posts in this thread to me. I think it deserves a home of its own some place. I wonder if the lack of evidence for any relationship between Guede and RS/AK deserves a spot in it somewhere also.
 
That's why I slightly blanche when someone (even someone arguing for innocence in this or another case) says something like, "the courts get it right the vast majority of the time." What they mean is that, the vast majority of the time, the courts either get it right or no-one finds out.

Yes, it is frightening, especially when you remember that even with modern science only 5 to 10% of criminal cases involve DNA evidence. Look at the inaccuracies those small proportion of crimes have shown up in the system! I've sometimes thought I'd like to see the death penalty brought back, especially when I hear of some particularly horrible, sadistic murder on the news, but then just take a quick look at the Innocence Project's web site and execution doesn't seem like such a good idea after all.
 
On a general point, has anybody ever attempted to quantify how many cases go formally unsolved because the investigating force go after the wrong suspect from the off, but never manage to put together even a contrived case good enough for an arrest?

A case in point: Milly Dowler - the police originally suspected her father and ignored all other leads (there were a few that might have lead to Bellfield, if I recall correctly, had they been followed up). And another: the "Yorkshire Ripper" - at least twice, as I recall, Peter Sutcliffe's name was submitted up the line by junior investigators for further attention but was NFA'ed each time because ACC Oldfield was fixated on "Wearside Jack". And just imagine what might have happened if John Humble had been caught at the time - British Police were still allowed to get away with little short of rack and thumbscrews (OK, exaggeration) in interrogations, so the liklihood he would have confessed is high. How sympathetic would a jury of that time have been to a defense case that was "I perpetrated a hoax"?
 
That's why I slightly blanche when someone (even someone arguing for innocence in this or another case) says something like, "the courts get it right the vast majority of the time." What they mean is that, the vast majority of the time, the courts either get it right or no-one finds out.

No one outside the case finds out that is.

Having witnessed two people's lives destroyed by courts, I sincerely doubt that the people who believe the courts get it right most of the time have ever encountered the system from the defendant's point of view, or known anyone who has.
 
Well, you're correct up to a point. But the mass noun usage of "data" is only due to repeated misuse that has entered the vernacular. We're currently seeing something similar happen with people misusing "phenomena" as a singular noun (e.g. "It's a very interesting phenomena"). Before long, it will likely be accepted that "phenomena" can be used either as a singular or plural noun.

Yes. However, this process has nothing to do with 'misuse' prescriptivism went out in the 1970's. There is no official rule book to English, only description of how the language is actually used IRL. ;)
 
Perhaps I'll save some for Osterwelle though, plus anyone else who a) likes delicious German Christmas spiced breads, and b) has a logical and sceptical view of this case :p
Thanks for the invitation, but I don't think I'm going to make it to London this year. ;)
Seems I'm off for Loch Ness in December, though, but I don't suppose the flight is going via Heathrow...

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Osterwelle
 
From a major p** blogger:

"This is what I believe.

Amanda's dream is to be a Rock Star. I think she wanted Mez to give her some intro's, as Mez had been in the Rock Video

Amanda's constant guitar *playing*. The bursting into song in public. Now, the hooking up with a musician.

Amanda wants to have complete control, as well. Writing the songs, playing the guitar and singing. THIS IS HER DREAM. And, I believe she was very put out, with Mez distancing herself, and probably Meredith not going to introduce her to her musician friends.

Is Amanda being realistic? The attention she received, from the group, HOT, in prison, may have something to do with it.

But, no question, this is where she wants to go, and , in her narcisstic way, is linking up with anyone she thinks may give her a headstart.

Stay *tuned*..."
 
3) So it's therefore appropriate to suggest that in the specific circumstances of the Kercher murder and the nascent level of the relationship between Knox and Sollecito (not to mention the Guede factor) it's extraordinarily unlikely that Knox and Sollecito would have mutually supported each other in the orgy of violence and sexual deviance that took place in the Perugia cottage that night.

You might add to that that Guede only spoke very little English and Amanda only little Italian so at least those two couldn't even talk with each other without the help of Sollectio. And as far as I remember, Raffaele wasn't that fluent in English either. I think there was a recorded phone call that showed it pretty well...

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Osterwelle
 
From a major p** blogger:

"This is what I believe.

Amanda's dream is to be a Rock Star. I think she wanted Mez to give her some intro's, as Mez had been in the Rock Video

Amanda's constant guitar *playing*. The bursting into song in public. Now, the hooking up with a musician.

Amanda wants to have complete control, as well. Writing the songs, playing the guitar and singing. THIS IS HER DREAM. And, I believe she was very put out, with Mez distancing herself, and probably Meredith not going to introduce her to her musician friends.

Is Amanda being realistic? The attention she received, from the group, HOT, in prison, may have something to do with it.

But, no question, this is where she wants to go, and , in her narcisstic way, is linking up with anyone she thinks may give her a headstart.

Stay *tuned*..."
Seriously? A pmfer posted this? They are sinking ever lower, their insights becoming more vapid, tepid, boring, and irrelevant. The group is becoming senile. An example of their interior rot....ugh..............
 
You might add to that that Guede only spoke very little English and Amanda only little Italian so at least those two couldn't even talk with each other without the help of Sollectio. And as far as I remember, Raffaele wasn't that fluent in English either. I think there was a recorded phone call that showed it pretty well...

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Osterwelle

Which makes the woman other than Nara that heard a scream after hearing a couple arguing in Italian more of a witness for Amanda than against her.
 
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