Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

Status
Not open for further replies.
And that's why I've long argued that even if (when) the rulings in the Knox/Sollecito trials establish that grave errors were made in the collection, handling, storage and testing of DNA evidence in this case, Guede will not have adequate grounds for a post-conviction appeal. The palm print alone is incontrovertible evidence of Guede's presence at the murder scene, and his behaviour after the murder puts the lie to his claims of "trying to help Meredith".
-

LJ,

correct me if I'm wrong here also, but besides the point you made above, wasn't the DNA evidence used against Raffaele and Amanda LCN? While most of the DNA evidence used to identify Guede wasn't LCN? In other words, there was an abundant amount of Rudy's DNA located in each spot that it was picked up. In short, isn't LCN DNA easier to contaminate than the good amount of DNA used to identify Rudy?

Thus in conclusion, if all the above is true then the conclusions reached that the LCN DNA was unreliable in the case of A&R (because of possible contamination) can't be used to throw out Rudy's DNA because his was of a larger quantity, and thus I assume was retested to affirm the original identification.

Plus, isn't it true that unlike Amanda and Raffaele, his DNA was matched not by actually having his physical DNA at the lab, but through a DNA database? And isn't it also true that at the time that his DNA was tested, they had no idea Guede was a suspect, so no confirmation bias can be attributed to Dr. S in this instance in any way?

Dave
 
Yummi/Machiavelli said:
A little update: the default position of many posters as I recall them, was "she is young, pretty, honor student, white and American, and therfore exceptional evidence would be needed to prove any charge;

Her nationality is not particularly informative, and as far as I know young people are more likely to commit crimes than old people; but statistical data suggest that the fact that she is pretty, an honor student, and female all contribute to a low prior probability of guilt. However, the proportion of killers in the population is already low to begin with.


on the contrary Rudy Guede is not American, is black, has petty records, is obviously involved in the murder, therefore no evidence is needed at all to pin all charges on him alone".

Evidence is how one concludes that he is "obviously involved in the murder". Now, his criminal record and maybe even his race (depending on the race/crime statistics in Italy, which I don't know) may make his prior probability of guilt higher than Knox's or Sollecito's, but all of that pales in comparison to the forensic evidence against him, which is such that, were it against Knox and Sollecito rather than Guede, it would doom them no matter how pretty, white, and honor-studentish they were.

A point that absolutely has to be made: even if most innocence supporters were motivated by racism, nationalism, the desire to bang Amanda Knox once she's out, or some other cockamamie reason dreamed up by the sort of people who post on guilter forums, that still wouldn't imply that Knox and Sollecito actually participated in the killing of Meredith Kercher! Reversed stupidity is not intelligence.
 
Last edited:
Plus, isn't it true that unlike Amanda and Raffaele, his DNA was matched not by actually having his physical DNA at the lab, but through a DNA database? And isn't it also true that at the time that his DNA was tested, they had no idea Guede was a suspect, so no confirmation bias can be attributed to Dr. S in this instance in any way?


I don't think that last is true. They matched his fingerprints, and identified him that way. Then they got a sample of his DNA, as a suspect.

Rolfe.
 
I think this is again starting to be a longer explanation than it needs to be. There is a risk that people will not believe the whole induced-false-memory thing. Again, if you're confident that they will believe it, then fine, otherwise this explanation will leave them feeling that they're being lied to.
Usually what you say makes a lot of sense to me and I think it's quite commendable how you are willing to go against the crowd, but your reasoning in regards to AK's "induced-false-memory-thing" seems to lack your usual logic IMO. Obviously there was a risk people wouldn't believe her false memory story, and they didn't. But shouldn't the only thing you care about be wether or not it was the the truth or not? And if it was the truth it sounds like you are arguing that she should have still known better than to tell it. Which is odd because it seems like you are using her lack of manipulative dishonesty against her.

I'm sorry, but I don't agree. It's perfectly possible for her to retract everything she said completely and straightforwardly without making any kind of positive statement about whether Patrick was or was not involved unless her explanation is so long and rambling that it is left unclear quite what she is asserting.
Do you think induced false memories aren't possible? i've known a few people that have had issues with them and they can easily be created in situations drastically less intense then what AK experienced. A very context appropriate case was with a friend who in a semi therapeutic environment started having visions of her father attacking her with a knife. In those visions she was stabbed repeatedly and there was lots of blood. It obviously didn't happen so she took it to be a symbolic vision of her fathers hostility towards her. When I asked her point blank what she would have thought if she saw something that could have plausibly happened (like sex abuse) she said she would have thought it had really happened. In fact another women in her group did recover sex abuse memories that she thought were real that most likely were not ( her friends sex abuse included events as young as 1 year old which is a red flag for false memories.)

As some one familiar with false memories it really just looks like AK is being honest and the psychological intensity of the interrogation combined with the translator's suggestion that she was repressing her knowledge of the murder caused her to start imagining things that didn't happen. The interrogators wanted them to be real memories so they ignored the obvious signs that they weren't, and Knox was so naive she had started to believe their lies and genuinely thought her visions might be true.

The lack of a recording of the interrogation was huge factor in how I reassessed the case once I realized AK/RS might be innocent. Mignini has said there was no recording due to "budget problems" but Ak had already secretly been recorded multiple times including once in one of the police interrogation rooms. Mignini has said AK was just a witness despite her clearly being interrogated as a suspect. Mignini has said the interrogation of Ak was lawful but that is obviously not true since the Italian Supreme court ruled it wasn't. Mignini has said he never broke the law and that abuse of office charges against him were unfounded but now has been convicted of those very charges and has 16 month prison sentence. Mignini is clearly untrustworthy, anyone who can't see that at this point is in denial.

How many hours? :-)
How many hours of interrogation would it take for you to be sobbing uncontrollably and screaming? AK was broken, and once that happened they had tremendous power over her, that is more important then the length of time it took to get her to that point.

Her initial signed false statements are made with less than three hours of interrogation (that night) but what happened to Knox was infinitely more coercive then what happened with my friend who had visions of her father stabbing her. My friend saw those visions after 4 hours of really exhaustive yoga with little more then a gentle suggestion that stuff from her past would come up as blocks to her training. It's been well established that both therapists and interrogators can accidentally induce false memories. If knox's "gift" statement is accurate then she was telling the police that she didn't think the visions were real early on and they just ignored her. Part of why the interrogation recording is so important is because if she really did tell them that from the beginning what they did to her was incredibly cruel and dishonest because they demonized her to hide their own incompetence.

To understand how disruptive an interrogation can be to proper cognitive functioning consider that PMFcore is so mentally fragile they can't even handle dissenting views on their forum. Words on a screen that they can choose not to read in the comfort of their own homes are so threatening to their collective psyche that they regularly erase and ban people for just hinting at thinking AK and RS are innocent. Yet Pmf is full of people who seem to have no empathy for how being trapped in an interrogation room while being told numerous lies and yelled at for hours might effect someone.

OK. Try and find a basis for his history of prosecuting people based on weird theories beyond what Preston says. if he's got a "history" of it, I take it it's more than one other case?
Preston makes the point thst it's a reoccurring issue with Mignini in the Monster of Florence case as Mignini ends up arresting a lot of different people for various crimes somehow part of the weird conspiracy Mignini is seeing everywhere. Now that Mignini has a 16 month prison sentence waiting for him in related to those acts I think it's fair to say that Preston's claims have been vindicated.

As far as the AK case Mignini demonstrated similar weird occult theories early on but dropped them from the prosecutions case when Micheli rebuked them. The comic book that RS owned that Mignini said inspired the killing of MK because she dressed as vampire on Halloween is totally mainstream, part of series that includes two movies, 3 video games and 3 young adult books. i've read online reviews of it and it seems milder than Francis Ford Coppola's Dracula movie in regards to it's sex and violence content. Mignini also apparently thought the original intended date to kill MK was Halloween somehow related to that comic and vampires, that counts as pretty weird IMO.

PMFcore likes to argue that Preston is the one who started the rumors about Mignini being into weird theories but Micheli, Nadeau, Follain, Mansey, and Kercher have all said Mignini said some really weird stuff regarding vampires, Halloween, rituals/satanism and MK's murder. I pointed out on the pmf forums that media sources they consider trustworthy disgaree with them about what Mignini had said and my post was erased and I was banned.

Consider how in order to argue the comic inspired murder narrative Mignini didn't just turn a common place comic into evidence of an occult motive for murder but also in the process Mignini was ignoring the overwhelming evidence of the killer being a habitual burglar who carried a knife, who had recently been violently threatening with the knife when he broke into an occupied home, and that had an modus operandi incredibly similar to the MK break in.

If you have a view about the monster of florence I take it that's taken on trust as to how bad it makes Mignini look, he really is only a footnote in the case after all? Are people saying that Mignini has a history of this because it's true, or because they think it ought to be/might be true/would be convenient if it were true.
I haven't read the monster of Florence book but I think Preston's 2006 article for The Atlantic is an important data point to understand the current case because it is incredible coincidence for the very same prosecutor that Preston wrote about to be involved in another case where he is apparently railroading innocent people. Preston didn't break down during his interrogation but he is a worldly 50 year old man and he was still was traumatized by it and wrote that he literally cried about it afterwards. There is something very wrong with Mignini, I'm not sure what it is exactly, but it seems like he is prone to moments of irrational paranoia and those that try to point out his errors he then imagines as being part of vast conspiracy against him. ( Pmfcore often seems to think the same way . . .)

Consider this old pmf post by Nicki :

I thought Mignini reactions to the American attacks could be of interest, in his own words, when addressing the Court yesterday:

Translation of Mignini complaints to the Court about USA media attacks:

"There is a passage in Mignini address to the court that Amanda surely cannot miss (NdT it is previously reported that at times she looks like she was sleeping while listening to the Court translator). Giuliano Mignini speaks about pressures from the USA, from Seattle, perhaps he refers to the letters written to the judges , or maybe to the blogs opened to support Amanda, or even to those who have criticized the way to conduct the investigation: surely, the Prosecutor is speaking in the courtroom in Perugia in order for America to listen. And Mignini says something very clear and very definitive, that jurisdiction on this case belongs to Italy only: "They have attacked in an undignified manner, with total lack of arguments, and striking superficiality this Country's judicial system, the only one having jurisdiction on this matter. Amanda in listening, motionless. Even when Mignini says that "Nodoby in Italy would have done so much as denigrate and attack in such a shameless manner USA prosecutors. Moreover, Mignini says " no Italian journalist, nobody working in the judicial field would even dream to libel and slander an American prosecutor investigating an Italian suspect".

As if the message isn't clear enough, Mignini adds: " I am bewildered and shocked by this behavior. It is the first time-and I don't think it will even happen again- that I face such arrogance and superficiality. A minimum of experience and prudence should prevent these sketchy judgments, expressed from 9000 km distance. And all of this without even spending a word on the fact that the writs have been confirmed by the Tribunal of Riesame and the First Penal Section of the Supreme Court".According to Mignini, however, "the masterminds of these operations are in Italy". Anyway " I will pass over more, even heavier and repeated intereferences. I will only say they would be inconceivable in Italy, and we 're surely not a perfect country".

FROM CORRIERE DELLA SERA of Oct 19, 2008

http://tinyurl.com/5hdtd8*[/ Now c...erican wasn't going to get away with it . . .
 
Last edited:
No I don't. Stilchio is quite clearly working under the assumption that Knox is guilty and anyway, he says she shouldn't have said anything. If Knox is guilty, of course she knew Patrick was innocent.

Shuttlt, they all think Amanda is guilty, some like Emerald aren't sure if Raffaele is, but that's not what that site is about. I have a better question for you to ask: 'Do any of you think there's a reasonable possibility Amanda is innocent?' The answer to that question would be interesting.
 
How extraordinary!

How do they keep it up, anyway?

Rolfe.

RoseMontague said:
When this case is over, it will be interesting if we get to hear the back story on this split.

Hatred (especially when combined with a feeling of in-group moral superiority) is surprisingly motivating. Guilterism is like a religion for some of the PMF types, with all the accompanying fundamentalist zeal, sacred scriptures, pilgrimages to holy sites, and Great Schisms and Reformations. As I understand it, they have no intention of giving up their jihad against Knox and Sollecito even in the event of acquittal.
 
Last edited:
Hatred (especially when combined with a feeling of in-group moral superiority) is surprisingly motivating. Guilterism is like a religion for some of the PMF types, with all the accompanying fundamentalist zeal, sacred scriptures, pilgrimages to holy sites, and Great Schisms and Reformations. As I understand it, they have no intention of giving up their jihad against Knox and Sollecito even in the event of acquittal.

I think this needs to be reiterated. One of the two moderators on the stupid site, Flybynight, said even if Amanda was acquitted she wouldn't be leaving Italy any time soon because of the Calunnia charges against her. Lo and behold, no one said anything. No one there to interject with "That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard flybynight." Supposedly the guy who said this is an actual professor at the University of Washington----and he said something this stupid. There's a strange brew of psychosis soup being stirred over there that is crazy to watch.

Here's a fact. If she's acquitted, she's going straight back to the United States, and no Calunnia charges are going to keep her there.

(I don't know why your post in particular made me bring this up, but there you have it)
 
I don't think that last is true. They matched his fingerprints, and identified him that way. Then they got a sample of his DNA, as a suspect.

Rolfe.
-

Rolfe,

what you say above is borne out by "Murder in Italy" (p. 219):
"On November 19, police made it official: Rudy Guede was the fourth man. The Rome forensics lab, whose results had finally come in, was able to identify him through the bloody imprint of his hand on Meredith's pillow. They'd also lifted his DNA off a toothbrush in his flat, which would eventually allow them to identify his 'papillary fragments' found on toilet paper in the larger bathroom, and the cells he'd left inside the victim 'during the sexual act,' which he himself later described as consensual 'petting.'"

ibid p. 219 (paragraph before):
"On November 18, 2007, Italian police announced a world-wide manhunt for the 'fourth man.' They described him as a North African (Arab) involved in the drug trade. Even though the description did not fit Rudy, Gabriele paid a visit to the Flying Squad office in Perugia and told the officers about his missing friend."

Also, did you read this blog article at Ground Report, posted by "Denver" dated August 15, 2011, concerning how the police knew of Guede's involvement less than three days after the murder was discovered, November 3, 2007 to be exact.

I don't know how accurate it is, but it is still an interesting theory. Read it and judge for yourself:

http://www.groundreport.com/World/AMANDA-KNOX-CONSPIRACY-THEORY/2940838

Dave
 
Last edited:
Shuttlt, they all think Amanda is guilty, some like Emerald aren't sure if Raffaele is, but that's not what that site is about. I have a better question for you to ask: 'Do any of you think there's a reasonable possibility Amanda is innocent?' The answer to that question would be interesting.

To be fair, shuttlt would get banned in short order if they started asking that kind of question over there.
 
-

Rolfe,

what you say above is borne out by "Murder in Italy" (p. 219):
"On November 19, police made it official: Rudy Guede was the fourth man. The Rome forensics lab, whose results had finally come in, was able to identify him through the bloody imprint of his hand on Meredith's pillow. They'd also lifted his DNA off a toothbrush in his flat, which would eventually allow them to identify his 'papillary fragments' found on toilet paper in the larger bathroom, and the cells he'd left inside the victim 'during the sexual act,' which he himself later described as consensual 'petting.'"

ibid p. 219 (paragraph before):
"On November 18, 2007, Italian police announced a world-wide manhunt for the 'fourth man.' They described him as a North African (Arab) involved in the drug trade. Even though the description did not fit Rudy, Gabriele paid a visit to the Flying Squad office in Perugia and told the officers about his missing friend."

Also, did you read this blog article at Ground Report, posted by "Denver" dated August 15, 2011, concerning how the police knew of Guede's involvement less than three days after the murder was discovered, November 3, 2007 to be exact.

I don't know how accurate it is, but it is still an interesting theory. Read it and judge for yourself:

http://www.groundreport.com/World/AMANDA-KNOX-CONSPIRACY-THEORY/2940838

Dave

I don't think it is accurate, Dave. Many items that were collected between the 2nd and 4th did reveal Rudy's DNA or a Y chromosome match in testing on the 6th from what I can see. Even then they probably had the profile but could not match it to his until they got his reference sample. This article states this:

The DNA results were finished and ran through the computer to match Rudy Guede before the end of the day, November 3rd, 2007, Saturday. (Possibly even November 2nd, Friday night)

The Rudy as a police informant theory is a much better "conspiracy theory".
 
I don't think it is accurate, Dave. Many items that were collected between the 2nd and 4th did reveal Rudy's DNA or a Y chromosome match in testing on the 6th from what I can see. Even then they probably had the profile but could not match it to his until they got his reference sample. This article states this:

The Rudy as a police informant theory is a much better "conspiracy theory".
-

Rose Montague,

I'm thinking the same thing as you, but still, how long does it take to match fingerprints? Two weeks? Did they do that with computer software or manually? How did they come up with a sketchy description of him on the 18th, but not a name until the 19th? Has it ever been confirmed that his DNA was not on file?

And "Denver" does bring up an interesting question. Who was Guede's lawyer for all those other "break-ins".

I know it does sound like a crazy theory and the "police informant" theory does have more validity, but still it is an interesting theory none the less,

Dave
 
I'm just a nag...

Rose Montague,

I'm thinking the same thing as you, but still, how long does it take to match fingerprints? Two weeks? Did they do that with computer software or manually? How did they come up with a sketchy description of him on the 18th, but not a name until the 19th? Has it ever been confirmed that his DNA was not on file?

And "Denver" does bring up an interesting question. Who was Guede's lawyer for all those other "break-ins".

I know it does sound like a crazy theory and the "police informant" theory does have more validity, but still it is an interesting theory none the less,

Dave
-

Also, shouldn't they have known within a couple days at the least that the hand print wasn't Amanda's or Raffeale's or Patrick's. Don't they take your finger prints when they arrest you in Italy? Why did it take two weeks before they announced there was a "fourth man"?

Stuff like this nags at me,

Dave
 
Sorry if this was already posted...

-

Amanda Knox tells Italian newspaper 'some still want to hurt me'
http://www.examiner.com/crime-in-na...-italian-newspaper-some-still-want-to-hurt-me

ETA FROM: http://www.westseattleherald.com/2011/09/11/news/update-amanda-knox-will-be-freed-says-italian-pro

"UPDATE, SEPT. 11

"A questionable article is circulating in many major Seattle media outlets, and beyond, picked up by European sources with the headline 'Amanda Knox hopes to be home for Thanksgiving'. The article claims Knox spoke to an Italian newspaper, which she did not, her parents told the West Seattle Herald. They pointed out that it is illegal in Italy for their daughter, who is convicted of murder, to speak to any media unless, and until, she is freed. She has not yet spoken to any press at any time... "
 
Last edited:
Guede's DNA

-

LJ,

correct me if I'm wrong here also, but besides the point you made above, wasn't the DNA evidence used against Raffaele and Amanda LCN? While most of the DNA evidence used to identify Guede wasn't LCN? In other words, there was an abundant amount of Rudy's DNA located in each spot that it was picked up. In short, isn't LCN DNA easier to contaminate than the good amount of DNA used to identify Rudy?

Thus in conclusion, if all the above is true then the conclusions reached that the LCN DNA was unreliable in the case of A&R (because of possible contamination) can't be used to throw out Rudy's DNA because his was of a larger quantity, and thus I assume was retested to affirm the original identification.
Dave,

To the best of my knowledge the details of the DNA evidence against Guede were never made public. I accept it provisionally, partially because his lawyers did not challenge it. If it is in the low template range or consisted of mixtures, it would lose much of its evidentiary value for me, depending on the details.
 
Ah but they think that we think that Knox and Sollecito can't be guilty because they are white middle-class students from good backgrounds, whereas we don't question Guede's guilt in the same way because he's black and with a troubled youth.

.

The statement 'Black man found, black man guilty' or whatever it was, that Rudy bravely accused Raff's shadow of saying at the crime scene is something only a black guy would think up. It's not the way white people comment upon black people. It's a black persons statement talking about the way they are perceived.

Ah, Rudy, where did it all go so wrong ? If only you'd stayed on the toilet for another ten songs none of this mess would be around you...
 
Last edited:
moodstream: You and Knox make the same claim. The police used coercive tactics which resulted in Knox giving a false statement.
shuttlt: I didn't say that.

moodstream: the argument you are using - that Knox's statements are the product of police coercion

shuttlt: That isn't my argument



In post 4786 you do say the following:
Really though I think the problem here is insisting that her thought processes be rational and well thought through. Lots of her actions were certainly highly pressurized and spur of the moment. When she did have time to think she'd still have been under intense pressure and stuck with the consequences of her earlier statements.

I’m baffled. Police used tactics, the result a false statement. What is a ‘highly pressurized’, ‘intense pressure’, tactic that is non-coercive, yet deprives the subject of time to think and ends with irrational decision making?
 
-

Rose Montague,

I'm thinking the same thing as you, but still, how long does it take to match fingerprints? Two weeks? Did they do that with computer software or manually? How did they come up with a sketchy description of him on the 18th, but not a name until the 19th? Has it ever been confirmed that his DNA was not on file?

And "Denver" does bring up an interesting question. Who was Guede's lawyer for all those other "break-ins".

I know it does sound like a crazy theory and the "police informant" theory does have more validity, but still it is an interesting theory none the less,

Dave

With Rudy it was the palm print they used for identification. It's unusual for the police to have access to a palm print and I think the reason they had one already had something to do with immigration or army reserves or something. I can't remember.
 
Really... Interesting

With Rudy it was the palm print they used for identification. It's unusual for the police to have access to a palm print and I think the reason they had one already had something to do with immigration or army reserves or something. I can't remember.
-

TheRealBob,

so they couldn't figure out it wasn't Amanda's or Raffaele's or Patrick's because...

I'm not being facetious or making fun of you, I really am curious.

It still begs one of my questions as to why it took two weeks for them to release the information that there was a fourth man,

Dave
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom