Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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No, it's not refuted.

If you bothered to read the earlier posts, you would know that 21th century average generally refers to 2001 - present or 2001 - end of data. Years before 2000 are never included.



The data set may go from 1880 - 2006 but they don't call this whole period 20th century anywhere in that paper.

If the whole data set is used for an average, it's stated as 1880-2006 average, full period average or similar. Not 20th century average - which is still 1901-2000 (actually, i must give in a little as in some occasions 1900-1999 may be used, as it's handy and rhymes with the usual perception of decades).

Anyway, here's an example from the same paper:

"The critical sampling (Crit) is evaluated using the globalMSE
averaged for 1861–99 (nineteenth century) and for 1861–2000 (full
period)."

As you can see, 19th century is from the start of data to 1899.



No, you are simply wrong. NOAA does NOT refer to the whole period as 20th century anywhere in that paper, or elsewhere i know of for that matter.

As I just pointed out to Pixel, unless they've gone back and changed all of the years on the webpage is hasn't been updated to reflect the change to version 3.

I can't make this any simpler; if you look at the paper they clearly use the years from 1880-2006 in the merged version to calculate the average. The NOAA website does say that they took a truncated period from 1901-2000 to use as a reference point from version 2 (I didn't know this until now). But unless they've updated their webpage it's actually 1880-2006 they're using, at least according to the paper.
 
This is incorrect, the paper not only mentions the 20th Century average, it mentions the 19th Century and the 21st Century. I know you haven't read the paper, why continue to claim that you have?
I've not only read it, I've searched it for "20th century average". Nada.

Except they clearly define the data set being used and clearly show it's from 1880-2006.
That's the total dataset, yes. Nowhere does it say that's the range it uses for calculating the 20th century average.

If you have an issue with this I suggest you take it up with NOAA.
I've just sent this email to the address given on the NOAA website (CMB.Contact@noaa.gov) for questions:

Subject: Definition of "20th century average"

I'm sorry to bother you, but I'm arguing with someone online who is insisting that when your webpages refer to the "20th century average" you mean the average for your entire dataset, i.e. 1880-2006. Even though I've pointed him to where you define it as the average from (obviously) 1901-2000 he won't accept it, instead claiming that you've failed to update all your webpages with the latest definition. You can see the most recent exchange here (warning: it will do your head in):

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=176635&page=87

Can you please reply to this email with confirmation that "20th century average" always has and always will mean 1901-2000, so I can post it to the thread.

Thank you.

It beggars belief that you are still refusing to admit your (very very silly) mistake.
 
I've not only read it, I've searched it for "20th century average". Nada.

*sigh

"twentieth century" (if you had read it you'd know this)

That's the total dataset, yes. Nowhere does it say that's the range it uses for calculating the 20th century average.

No in the paper it uses "full range". Version 3 uses the "full range" as part of the reconstruction.

I've just sent this email to the address given on the NOAA website
It beggars belief that you are still refusing to admit your (very very silly) mistake.

:clap:

If I'm mistaken then so be it. I read the paper, they use the "full range" in version 3. It was my understanding that the change to version 3 incorporated the average from 1880-2006. I didn't see the "reference period" on the NOAA website was the truncated 1901-2000 data set for version 2, but even then it doesn't make sense unless they've gone back and changed the average on the webpage (it's possible I suppose if it's generated from the gridded data but it looks like it's just typed text). The other option is that it(the average) hasn't changed from version 2 to version 3.
 
As I just pointed out to Pixel, unless they've gone back and changed all of the years on the webpage is hasn't been updated to reflect the change to version 3.

I can't make this any simpler; if you look at the paper they clearly use the years from 1880-2006 in the merged version to calculate the average. The NOAA website does say that they took a truncated period from 1901-2000 to use as a reference point from version 2 (I didn't know this until now). But unless they've updated their webpage it's actually 1880-2006 they're using, at least according to the paper.

Please quote the most compelling supportive paragraph from the paper for your understanding of perspective. I've read through all three versions of the assessment that I'm aware of, and I just don't see anything supportive of, or that, from my perspective, is even easily confused for what you are asserting.
 
"Random"?!
Seriously?!

Sorry, no my mistake. I thought that was the precipitation one.


No, it uses the words "gridded data" and "anomalies" but it refutes most everything you've argued over the last 3 pages or so.

Except for NOAA's own words: "Gridded data for every month from January 1880 to the most recent month is available. The data are temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius."
The anomalies are for the 1971-2000 but the averages are from 1880-2006.

It clearly and compellingly demonstrates how NOAA defines the term "20th century."

Except where they note the changes in version 3: It will also be merged with the Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 3b dataset to form the merged land and ocean surface temperature dataset, which is used to calculate the global average temperature from 1880 to present..

The merged land and ocean temperature data set is from 1880-2006, not 1900-2000. If this is a truncated data set they've retroactively changed the website or it hasn't changed.
If the 20th century average is still only the average from 1900-2000 it's not a matter of principle. If you included the years 1880-1899 and 2000-2006 in your average would you change your entire website?

"random," seriously, in the same sentence where you are trying to admonish me to read a paper (again) that clearly contradicts and refutes what you claim it supports?

I assure you there is nothing random in either NOAA gridding of temperature anomaly data, nor in my linkage to their site demonstrating that data.

I guess not, it says they used a 1900-2000 period because it's familiar and useful for long term trending.

non sequitor

Care to explain why you think climate cycles would follow the calendar? I'm sure it would make things a lot easier if it did. It's pure fantasy of course.

again a non sequitor. You need to decide whether you are going to argue definition or propriety. Definitionally you are irredeemably incorrect. There may be a propriety discussion to have, but it does not include redefining the term "20th century."

Nonsense. There's no such word as "definitionally", it's made up gibberish.

Your understandings and explanations are flawed and not in accord with the understandings, meanings and definitions used by these, or any other, knowledgeable researchers in anyway involved with the field of climate science, or for that matter, science in general.

:dl:

This is very simple to follow really. I read the referenced paper, it includes the years 1880-2006, I made a comment about the difference from the average being inconsequential in a 130 year period, you made comment without reading the paper that the 20th Century Average must only include the years 1900-2000. I said there's no reason to assume the 20th Century Average only include the years 1900-2000. I then explained all the reasons given in the paper for including the years 1880-1900 and 2000-2006, the different data sets, the precision etc. I told you to read the paper if you didn't understand, you objected on principle not any valid scientific reason. What can I say? If the new data set NOAA uses to calculate the 20th Century Average is only the years 1900 or 1901-2000 so be it. It isn't by necessity in definition. The "20th Century average" could very well include the years 1880-2006 simply for the fact that saying "The 19th, 20th and 21st Century average" is too wordy and serves no beneficial purpose.

My understanding from reading the paper was that the new version 3 included these extended data sets and the averages were calculated from them and not from the truncated 1901-2000 data set.
 
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/25/cern_cloud_cosmic_ray_first_results/

CERN: 'Climate models will need to be substantially revised'

25th August 2011

… snip …

The first results from the lab's CLOUD ("Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets") experiment published in Nature today confirm that cosmic rays spur the formation of clouds through ion-induced nucleation. Current thinking posits that half of the Earth's clouds are formed through nucleation. The paper is entitled Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation.

This has significant implications for climate science because water vapour and clouds play a large role in determining global temperatures. Tiny changes in overall cloud cover can result in relatively large temperature changes.

Unsurprisingly, it's a politically sensitive topic, as it provides support for a "heliocentric" rather than "anthropogenic" approach to climate change: the sun plays a large role in modulating the quantity of cosmic rays reaching the upper atmosphere of the Earth.

… snip …

Climate models will have to be revised, confirms CERN in supporting literature (pdf):

"t is clear that the treatment of aerosol formation in climate models will need to be substantially revised, since all models assume that nucleation is caused by these vapours [sulphuric acid and ammonia] and water alone.


… snip …

When Dr Kirkby first described the theory in 1998, he suggested cosmic rays "will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth's temperature that we have seen in the last century."


:popcorn1
 
I didn't expect to get a reply until after the weekend, very quick work from NOAA.

I cut and paste the whole reply, redacting only my email address:

Re: Subject: Definition of "20th century average"
From: "Derek.Arndt@noaa.gov" <Derek.Arndt@noaa.gov>Add to Contacts
To: [redacted]
Cc: cmb.contact@noaa.gov


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hi,

Our global temperature anomalies presented at
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php are departures from the
20th Century average. The 20th Century average is calculated using the
100-year period beginning with 1901 and ending with 2000.

Deke Arndt
Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center
 
*sigh

"twentieth century" (if you had read it you'd know this)
* Sigh *

I know it mentions the 20th century, I've read the paper. But you said (my bold):

This is incorrect, the paper not only mentions the 20th Century average, it mentions the 19th Century and the 21st Century.
It does not mention the 20th century average. It says nothing whatever about the 20th century average. The paper is about the analysis of the entire dataset, and improvements that have been made to it. At no point does it discuss temperature anomalies wrt the 20th century average so it doesn't need to mention the 20th century average, let alone define it. Comparisons with the 20th century average are, however, given on the website, which is why it's the website FAQ that defines the term.

No in the paper it uses "full range". Version 3 uses the "full range" as part of the reconstruction.
So? What has that got to do with how the 20th century average is calculated?

If I'm mistaken then so be it. I read the paper, they use the "full range" in version 3. It was my understanding that the change to version 3 incorporated the average from 1880-2006.
Why on earth would the baseline period against which temperature anomalies are calculated be changed just because NOAA has produced an improved version of their dataset? Why, above all, would NOAA suddenly decide to redefine "20th century average" to be something other than it is universally understood to mean throughout the scientific community?
 
I did highlight it, but it doesn't seem to have worked in reducing confusion. I don't think you understand the implications. It's another example of the poorly statistical methods that plague the pseudoscience known today as climate change.
Where else can you not randomly sample your random sample (Mr. Mann I'm looking in your direction) and discard the data that doesn't fit with you biased notion?

I can make no sense out of this.

The version 3 dataset incorporates satellite data. All the data, and the statistical methods used to incorporate it, are available. None of it has been deleted, and your preferred analysts can create their own dataset from and explain the statistical methods they use. They can also criticise the statistical methods used in version 3, but they dont do either. They present you with confirming evidence that climate science is "pseudoscience" ("junk science" is another favored term) and easily convince you that it is in some way significant. It isn't.

Exactly what canard you refer to regarding Michael Mann is indecipherable, and there are so many of those that it could be almost anything. Are you still trying to break the good ol' hockey stick? I rather think you are.
 
I hope this will finally settle this ludicrous argument.

Yeah, like that will happen :rolleyes:.

The world warms, ice recedes, floods and droughts abound, the biome twitches, what was once the future becomes the past and present, and still the likes of Furcifer are trying to knock down Michael Mann and the Hockey Stick in the belief that it'll all go away then. Happy are they who seek solutions in the 19thCE, but in another sense they're really sad.
 

Popcorn gone stale yet?

According to the lead researcher of the paper at the root of the politico blogasm:
...Early results seem to indicate that cosmic rays do cause a change. The high-energy protons seemed to enhance the production of nanometre-sized particles from the gaseous atmosphere by more than a factor of ten. But, Kirkby adds, those particles are far too small to serve as seeds for clouds. "At the moment, it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step," he says...
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

How do we go about checking the claims of a GCR climate forcing? Well can we search the records for evidences of past GCR climate influence?

"Geomagnetic field intensity during the last 60,000 years based on 10Be and 36Cl from the Summit ice cores and 14C" - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737910500048X

Okay, that's ancient stuff and relies on deductions that may or may not be the complete story, how about some more recent and direct analyses?

"Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature" - http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/463/2086/2447.full.pdf+html
...Conclusions
There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate. There are also some detection–attribution studies using global climate models that suggest there was a detectable influence of solar variability in the first half of the twentieth century and that the solar radiative forcing variations were amplified by some mechanism that is, as yet, unknown. However, these findings are not relevant to any debates about modern climate change. Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified.

"Atmospheric data over a solar cycle: no connection between galactic cosmic rays and new particle formation" - http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1885/2010/acp-10-1885-2010.html
...Here, we report unique observations on atmospheric aerosol formation based on measurements at the SMEAR II station, Finland, over a solar cycle (years 1996–2008) that shed new light on these presumed relationships. Our analysis shows that none of the quantities related to aerosol formation correlates with the cosmic ray-induced ionisation intensity (CRII). We also examined the contribution of ions to new particle formation on the basis of novel ground-based and airborne observations. A consistent result is that ion-induced formation contributes typically significantly less than 10% to the number of new particles, which would explain the missing correlation between CRII and aerosol formation. Our main conclusion is that galactic cosmic rays appear to play a minor role for atmospheric aerosol formation events, and so for the connected aerosol-climate effects as well.

Cosmic ray effects on cloud cover and their relevance to climate change - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611000691
Research highlights:
►No correlation is found between cosmic ray changes and the whole cloud cover.
►Influence of cosmic rays on the cloud cover in the troposphere is at the level of 1%.
►Cosmic rays have negligible effect on the global temperature and on climate.

Sudden cosmic ray decreases: No change of global cloud cover
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL041327.shtml

Cosmic ray effects on cloud cover and their relevance to climate change
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611000691

Many, many more available upon request
 
I was under the impression they're the same thing.
They are not.
In science the term paper usually refers to a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal. Sometimes a presentation at a conference is called (incorrectly IMO) a paper.

A report as the 1979 Charney committee report is a just a report.

They aren't,
Climate models are consistent in their results. The following article is about how reliable they are
How reliable are climate models?
"Noone has created a general circulation model that can explain climate's behaviour over the past century without CO2 warming."
Of course their future projections can be considered as 'not consistant'. because they do not give exactly the same results. But then no one expects them to.

and this is probably the number one reason to avoid socalledskepticalsicence.com. They cherry pick studies to make it appear that way,
You seem ignorant of the web site name. It is Skeptical Science.

And you persistent in unsupported assertions:
Present your evidence that the Skeptical Science articles
  • cherry pick their 'data'
  • fear monger
  • sensationalize

but if you read the actual journals you'll see it's far from consistent and probably one of the biggest complaints climate scientists make today.
Citations for this unsupported that climate models are not consistent?
Also what do you and these scientists mean by not consistent?

It is obvious that climate models do not give exactly the same results, espcially for future projections.

You see super models (not the ones you're probably familiar with) and multiple source reconstructions precisely for the reason that they aren't consistent.
So you can read my mind now :eye-poppi!
Give me a list of the super models that you imagine that I am not familiar with.

You are once again missing citations to the journal papers that state that "super models ....and multiple source reconstructions precisely for the reason that they aren't consistent".
 
Why on earth would the baseline period against which temperature anomalies are calculated be changed just because NOAA has produced an improved version of their dataset? Why, above all, would NOAA suddenly decide to redefine "20th century average" to be something other than it is universally understood to mean throughout the scientific community?

Nonsense, there's no "scientifically universally accepted definition" of the 20th Century Average. The 19th Century average, which is in the paper by the way is the years 1880-1900, not 1800-1899 like you keep insisting. The 21st Century average, which is also referenced in the Reynolds paper is the years 2000-2006. Clearly there's not "universally scientific definition" of the "xth Century Average".

I thought the switch to version 3 meant the so called "full period" was being used and NOAA simply didn't update their website to reflect this. And if they did, there's no real reason other than pendantry to do so. The bulk of the average is the 20th Century, the few years on either side really don't mean squat.
 
The version 3 dataset incorporates satellite data.

No it doesn't, version 3b does. That's probably why you're confused.


Exactly what canard you refer to regarding Michael Mann is indecipherable, and there are so many of those that it could be almost anything. Are you still trying to break the good ol' hockey stick? I rather think you are.

The "hockey stick" is a classic example of the pseudoscientific garbage some climate scientists are willing to feed the warmists in order to get their 15 minutes and some grant money. "questionable statistics" is just the polite way of saying adulterated garbage.
 
Yeah, like that will happen :rolleyes:.

Yes, NOAA uses a truncated data set for "conceptual simplicity", apparently thet feel comprehending full dataset is beyond most of their readers. That's been well established.

The world warms,

Every summer.

ice recedes,

Every summer.

floods and droughts abound,

Alarmist hyperbole.

the biome twitches,

What? I don't know what that means. What's the scientific definition of "twitch"?

and still the likes of Furcifer are trying to knock down Michael Mann and the Hockey Stick in the belief that it'll all go away then. Happy are they who seek solutions in the 19thCE, but in another sense they're really sad.

What's sad is the lack of skepticism and critical thinking when it comes to climate science. It truly is the new cargo cult. Warmists preaching doom behind a thin veil of pseudoscientific garbage. Mann's hockey stick a classic example of how confirmation bias becomes statistical bias.
 
They are not.
In science the term paper usually refers to a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal. Sometimes a presentation at a conference is called (incorrectly IMO) a paper.

A report as the 1979 Charney committee report is a just a report.

Nonsense. The "paper" was presented in the "report". I don't see the point of this pedantry, is there one? I believe this is more made up nonsense.

Climate models are consistent in their results. The following article is about how reliable they are
How reliable are climate models?
"Noone has created a general circulation model that can explain climate's behaviour over the past century without CO2 warming."
Of course their future projections can be considered as 'not consistant'. because they do not give exactly the same results. But then no one expects them to.

More cherry picked nonsense from a garbagescience website. The whole point of continued research is because there's no consistency in the results.

Citations for this unsupported that climate models are not consistent?
Also what do you and these scientists mean by not consistent?

Exactly what was quoted earlier, very little has changed since 1979 because beyond the very basics of sensitivity the models no longer yield similar results.

It is obvious that climate models do not give exactly the same results, espcially for future projections.

Indeed they don't and the confidence interval remains very high in relation the estimated sensitivity. As an example the current sensitivity is about 3 +/- 1.5 degrees. If you got pulled over and the police said you were going 40 or 120 and another cop said 50 to 150 would you consider that consistent?

If you can, find 3 recent climate sensitivity estimates taken from models and we can discuss "consistency". Perhaps you have a different definition than everyone else.

So you can read my mind now :eye-poppi!
Give me a list of the super models that you imagine that I am not familiar with.

I believe this reference may have went well over your head.

You are once again missing citations to the journal papers that state that "super models ....and multiple source reconstructions precisely for the reason that they aren't consistent".

It's all been cited in this thread and is common knowledge.

Here's what a quick Google yields: http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/papers/ngillett/PDFS/multi.pdf
They use the term "multi-model" approach, what they call these combined models varies from paper to paper and depends on how many models are used. There's plenty more where that came from. It's probably something you'd never see on crapclimatescience.com and the like I'm sure.
 
Nonsense, there's no "scientifically universally accepted definition" of the 20th Century Average.
OK then, find me a single use of "20th century average" which includes data from before 1900 or after 2000. It doesn't have to be to do with temperature, it doesn't even have to be from a scientific source. Just one example of anyone anywhere using it the way you wrongly thought NOAA was using it.

The 19th Century average, which is in the paper by the way is the years 1880-1900, not 1800-1899 like you keep insisting.
I never insisted anything of the sort.

It's the average of all the data that's available for the 19th century, as has been explained to you multiple times. It just so happens that, for global temperatures, that data begins in 1880.

For any quantity where data is available for the whole of the 19th century, the 19th century average would mean the average from 1801-1900.

The 21st Century average, which is also referenced in the Reynolds paper is the years 2000-2006.
It's the average of all the data that's yet available for the 21st century, as has already been explained to you multiple times. Prior to 2000, anyone who referred to the 20th century average would likewise have meant the average for the century so far.

Clearly there's not "universally scientific definition" of the "xth Century Average".
Yes there is, it's the average from (x-1)01-x00 or, where the available data covers a period shorter than that, the average for the years for which data is available. It never, ever, covers a period of more than a century.

I thought the switch to version 3 meant the so called "full period" was being used and NOAA simply didn't update their website to reflect this.
You thought very very wrong. Again: improvements to or extensions to the NOAA data set is never ever going to change the way they define "20th century average". Why should it? It's just a convenient, universally understood (by everybody but you) baseline against which to calculate temperature anomalies. For some things NOAA chooses a different base period, for example on the temperature anomaly maps they use a base period of 1961-1990. They're not going to change that one every time they improve or extend their data set either.

And if they did, there's no real reason other than pendantry to do so. The bulk of the average is the 20th Century, the few years on either side really don't mean squat
As it happens, this particular dataset only covers a few years either side of the 20th century, but that doesn't mean that it would ever have been correct to use "20th century average" to describe the average over the whole period. If NOAA had ever done so they would have been a laughing stock.

And why would temperature anomalies be calculated wrt the average over the whole period for which data is available anyway? Every time another full year's data became available all the previously published temperature anomalies would have had to be recalculated, which would be absurd.

It makes sense to pick a fixed period in the past for which data is available and calculate anomalies wrt the average of it, and continue to use the same base period as more data becomes available, and improvements are made to the analysis of existing data.
 
Furcifer: Provide your evidence for the cherry picking in Skeptical Science

Nonsense. The "paper" was presented in the "report". I don't see the point of this pedantry, is there one? I believe this is more made up nonsense.
The point is your lack of ability of undertstand what you read.
Here is is again:
Climate sensitivity
The standard modern estimate of climate sensitivity — 3°C, plus or minus 1.5°C — originates with a committee on anthropogenic global warming convened in 1979 by the National Academy of Sciences and chaired by Jule Charney. Only two sets of models were available; one, due to Syukuro Manabe, exhibited a climate sensitivity of 2°C, the other, due to James E. Hansen, exhibited a climate sensitivity of 4°C. "According to Manabe, Charney chose 0.5°C as a not-unreasonable margin of error, subtracted it from Manabe’s number, and added it to Hansen’s. Thus was born the 1.5°C-to-4.5°C range of likely climate sensitivity that has appeared in every greenhouse assessment since..."[13] .

There is no '1979 Chaney paper':
  1. It was a report from a committee.
  2. This report did not caonatin any papers from Chaney on climate sensitvity from climate models.
More cherry picked nonsense from a garbagescience website.
MOre unsupported assertions.
The whole point of continued research is because there's no consistency in the results.
Wrong: The whole point of continued research is to get more accurate results. The climate sensitivity resilts from GCMs for example are consistent, i.e. they fall within the same range of 2 to 4.5 C (The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes, Reto Knutti1 and Gabriele C. Hegerl).

A detailed look at climate sensitivity
Knutti and Hegerl (2008) presents a comprehensive, concise overview of our scientific understanding of climate sensitivity. In their paper, they present a figure which neatly encapsulates how various methods of estimating climate sensitivity examining different time periods have yielded consistent results, as the studies described above show. As you can see, the various methodologies are generally consistent with the range of 2-4.5°C, with few methods leaving the possibility of lower values, but several unable to rule out higher values.

Exactly what was quoted earlier, very little has changed since 1979 because beyond the very basics of sensitivity the models no longer yield similar results.
You quoted nothing earlier.

Indeed they don't and the confidence interval remains very high in relation the estimated sensitivity. As an example the current sensitivity is about 3 +/- 1.5 degrees. If you got pulled over and the police said you were going 40 or 120 and another cop said 50 to 150 would you consider that consistent?
Rather dumb example since you do not give any actual measurements but: Yes because both cops gave consistent ranges (40-120 and 50-150).

If you can, find 3 recent climate sensitivity estimates taken from models and we can discuss "consistency". Perhaps you have a different definition than everyone else.
Lets start with your definition of consistency.
My definition is that there are a small percentage of out-lier results. For GCM estimates there is only one that I know of and there are many GCM estimates.
Of course 'consistency' is not a scientific term, it is a subjective evaluation. So whatever you say is not consistent, I am probably going to say is consistent and we will both be right :jaw-dropp!
What is scientific is the fact that 1 sigma (66%) of the GCM climate sensitivity estimates lie within the range of 2-4.5C.

I believe this reference may have went well over your head.
I believe that you have no idea what you wrote. So what?

It's all been cited in this thread and is common knowledge.
Where in this thread? What papers were cited? Where are your links to the studies that show that this is common knowledge?

Here's what a quick Google yields: http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/papers/ngillett/PDFS/multi.pdf
They use the term "multi-model" approach, what they call these combined models varies from paper to paper and depends on how many models are used. There's plenty more where that came from. It's probably something you'd never see on crapclimatescience.com and the like I'm sure.
Multi model approaches are a well known technique to get more accurate results from models (better consistency if you prefer :)).

The comment about Skeptical Science just reveals your unthinking prejudice about the web site. Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble (N. P. Gillett, F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Weaver, G. C. Hegerl, M. R. Allen,4 and P. A. Stott) is exactly the kind of paper that they would cite. In fact they cite a paper by most of the same authors:
Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure
Nathan P. Gillett, Francis W. Zwiers, Andrew J. Weaver & Peter A. Stott
 
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Nonsense, there's no "scientifically universally accepted definition" of the 20th Century Average. The 19th Century average, which is in the paper by the way is the years 1880-1900, not 1800-1899 like you keep insisting. The 21st Century average, which is also referenced in the Reynolds paper is the years 2000-2006. Clearly there's not "universally scientific definition" of the "xth Century Average".

This, is all, quite simply wrong and completely inaccurate. The single statement to approximate the truth is "The 21st Century average, which is also referenced in the Reynolds paper is the years 2000-2006," and that is because at the time Reynolds et al. was preparing their work the only years worth of data in the twenty first century were 2001 through 2006.

"xth Century Average" refers to the averaged data of all years in the xth century. Any other interpretation is simply wrong.

You are mistaken and this mistake has not only been explained to you by members of this thread but by the authors of the study you are misquoting and attempting to distort.
 
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