Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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To me it is the equivalent of calling a shadow of a person a real person. The fact is there was not enough material on the knife to test and steffi cranked the knob up 10 times to finally get a reading then ran a second run on the same amplication and got a somewhat different reading. The results indicated a LCN quantity (less than 10 picograms) in direct contradiction to her stated testimony of a few hundred picograms, no positive or negative controls were run, all of the alleles are less than the minumun reliable threshold of 50, and a second test on a different amplication was not run. Proper collection techniques for LCN were not done and the testing itself was not proper for a LCN test. Not only are the results unreliable, it is known it was not blood and no testing was done to determine if it was other human material.

The result could easily be the result of contamination either in the collection of the evidence or the handling storage and testing of the evidence, either on the knife, equipment used or the machine itself. Problems of contamination increase considerably when dealing with a LCN quantity and even the standards for collecting and testing normal amounts of DNA were not followed.

This is what I feared though, *another* contamination argument. It's unfortunate enough that we have to invoke "contamination" to explain away the clasp, but now the knife blade too? Ick. If Hellmann accepts that it's her profile on the blade, then hopefully he considers the totality of the evidence too -- like the lack of blood as others have mentioned, the fact that it was excluded as the weapon of damage for many of the wounds on Meredith, that it doesn't match the bloodstain knife imprint, etc.
 
This is what I feared though, *another* contamination argument. It's unfortunate enough that we have to invoke "contamination" to explain away the clasp, but now the knife blade too? Ick. If Hellmann accepts that it's her profile on the blade, then hopefully he considers the totality of the evidence too -- like the lack of blood as others have mentioned, the fact that it was excluded as the weapon of damage for many of the wounds on Meredith, that it doesn't match the bloodstain knife imprint, etc.

He feels it is voodoo science and keystone *cop* forensics, in my opinion.

And you are correct, *common sense* as well as other evidence indicates the knife is not the murder weapon.
 
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For me, the failure to document the controls was huge. And then the farce of the prosecution claiming that they existed and not having them in their hand. Huh, a cornerstone of your case is the reliability of the DNA testing and you decide to come to court without copies of the documentation of the control experiments and then when the documentation is produced it is not the documentation for the test in question? So an outside observer needs to choose between wildly incompetent prosecutors or just dishonest prosecutors?

And a small issue that might seem more important to me than it actually is. Stefanoni threatened to sue the experts that criticized her. Huh, on what planet does that make sense? That suggests that Stefanoni might not be the brightest bulb. If expert witnesses can be easily sued because they criticize the prosecution's case then where are you going to find expert witnesses to ever challenge prosecution evidence? Unless she has evidence of significant malfeasance by the people that critiqued her actions and findings the threat of a lawsuit sounds like childish junior high blather to me, which would tend to indicate that she has a position that exceeds her capabilities and talents.

Negative evidence as I understand it.
1. False accusation - Sounds like coercion and perhaps language difficulties easily explains this. Testimony taken after forty hours of questioning might be useful as an investigation tool, but it should never be allowed into court without corroboration and it doesn't sound like there was any.

2. DNA on the knife
This sounds like it was completely shot down by C & V. So much so that it isn't even a useful piece of evidence in a preponderance of the evidence kind of case.

3. DNA on the bra clasp
Even after the C & V testimony it sounds like the evidence can not be completely discounted at least in a preponderance of evidence case. The mishandling of the clasp which conceivably could have led to cross contamination, the difficulty of correlating the evidence with the rest of the crime scene and the problematic nature of some of the police scientist's procedures easily makes it too suspect for me to be of value in a case to be decided based on a beyond a reasonable doubt criteria.

4. Other evidence
I am still trying to figure out exactly what of significance is left. I am just now finding some pro-guilt writing that seems to believe that there was a lot more evidence against Knox than the three issues I listed above. I need to work at understanding what they are before I know what to make of them.


This is a pretty good summary of where we're at right now. There is indeed other evidence that - if one goes with the prosecution interpretation - is significantly incriminating towards Knox and Sollecito. The main areas here are these (giving the prosecution interpretation, followed by what many of us here believe to be a more rational interpretation):

1) The mixed DNA in the bathroom sink/bidet: The prosecution allege that Knox's DNA and Meredith's blood DNA were deposited at the same time, meaning that Knox must have been involved in the murder. A more rational explanation is that Knox's DNA was already present in the sink and bidet, given that she used that bathroom regularly. Furthermore, the crime scene video clearly shows that the samples were not correctly collected using a careful dabbing technique: instead, the forensics official (who also doubled as the photographer!) clearly smeared wide areas - meaning that the dilute spots of Meredith's blood were potentially mixed with any other latent DNA that was present through the whole arc of the smear.

2) The "staged" break-in: The prosecution alleges that there is no way that the break-in could have been real, and that only Knox would have a reason to stage it. But the prosecution based this on the flimsiest of evidence, and apparently didn't even conduct a proper search of the ground below the broken window (this area of ground was used as a cigarette and phone-call area for the police!). The rational explanation is that the evidence found is entirely consistent with a real break-in, including the distribution of glass, the placement of the rock which broke the glass, and the presence of a hair which was probably Guede's on the window frame. Wonder what happened to that hair, huh.....?

3) The partial print on the bathmat: Prosecutors allege that it's possible to match this print accurately to Sollecito,, and to actively exclude it as a match to Guede. A rational explanation is that it's essentially impossible to say that the print is anything other than the dilute-blood print made by an adult male with above-average foot size. The prosecution's "expert" conducted a suspect-centric examination of the print, and it appears that he deliberately chose his measurements to match those of Sollecito's reference print. The reality is that the print on the mat is made on a tufted, textured towelling mat with a saturated blood/water mixture, making precise measurements totally impossible. The rational conclusion is that the print is almost certainly Guede's, but at the very least it cannot be positively attributed to Sollecito. In addition, Massei's "reasoning" came up with this gem: the print contained Meredith's blood; Meredith's blood was only present in her bedroom; therefore whoever made the print bot the blood onto his bare foot inside Meredith's room, and walked to the bathroom; and therefore the absence of similar bloody prints between Meredith's room and the bathroom is evidence of a post-crime clean-up!! The rational explanation for this is that the killer hadn't stepped in blood at that point, but went to wash blood off his clothing in the bathroom (the print was clearly made in a very dilute blood/water mixture, so it wasn't made by stepping directly into Meredith's blood anyhow). The killer placed his foot in a pool of blood/water in either the bidet or the shower while washing blood off his clothing, then stepped onto the mat.

4) The testimony of Quintavalle: The prosecution alleges that Quintavalle's testimony is reliable and accurate, and apparently Massei's court somehow accepted this. Quintavalle says that Knox came into his shop at 8am on the morning after the murder, and browsed in the cleaning products area. Since Knox claims she was in bed at Sollecito's apartment until around 10am, Quintavalle's testimony would be very damaging if true. But according to Quintavalle's employee, when the police visited shortly after the murder, Quintavalle didn't recall seeing either Knox or Sollecito - despite even being shown photos of the two. He only came forward with his story a year after the murder, at the "request" of a newspaper journalist. The rational explanation is that Quintavalle is either honestly confused (maybe he's retrospectively convinced himself that he really did see Knox that morning), or he's simply a liar. Either way, the way his testimony came to light clearly significantly affects its reliability and veracity to the degree that it's probably useless.


And there are other, more minor, areas that can be similarly discussed. The long-and-short of it is that there is simply no solid, reliable evidence that points conclusively (or even cumulatively) to the guilt of Knox or Sollecito. If I (or most people here) could be shown just one incontrovertible piece of evidence pointing at guilt, I'd have no problem changing my opinion. But no such piece (or pieces) of evidence exists - it's as simple as that.
 
Oh, that would be good. There are very few of us in these threads. Though a select few, I have to say! "Guilters" seem to be an endangered species, if not entirely extinct. Unfortunately the USA is threatening to kidnap Megrahi from Tripoli (despite the fact that he looks like death insufficiently warmed over) and haul him off to the USA to "pay for his crimes". So it's not all sweetness and light.

Which circuit board? The bit of the radio that Peter Claiden found in January? That would be good!

Rolfe.


No: that was the bit that linked to the PFLP Toshiba bombs, right? I'm talking about the timer fragment (which ultimately provided one of the links back to Libya). I have some very interesting info on its provenance and the circumstances of its discovery.......

But OT ALERT!!! Must insert something about the Knox/Kercher case!! How about: What time of the evening do you think that Meredith Kercher died, and how do you come to that conclusion? :D
 
I just stepped slowly through the video using the youtube viewer. It might be possible to come up with an absolutely definitive answer if the video was uploaded and reviewed with a more sophisticated viewer but even without that unless the guy was doing a magic act it looks like it is extremely likely that he dropped it.

In one frame the clasp is between his two fingers and in the next it is missing. The eyes of the person standing beside the man who presumably dropped the clasp seem to follow the clasp to the floor.

The incredible thing about the clip was the excess handling of the clasp. Even if one weren't worried about contaminating the clasp or removing trace evidence from the clasp one might have considered the possibility that the trace evidence rubbed from the clasp might be moved to some place else.

There's another issue here that I'm sure has been brought up, but if there was any doubt about the DNA match on the clasp then all that would be necessary was to test the bra itself for DNA. If one couldn't corroborate a shaky DNA test with a more reliable test on an area where the alleged handler of the clasps would almost certainly have had to touch then the reliability of the clasp DNA results should probably be completely discounted given the unlikelihood that the clasp was touched but the rest of the bra wasn't.

Question:
What's going on with the hard drive evidence? What efforts have been made to recover the data from it?


Of course, the simple truth is that nobody should have been handling that piece of evidence at all - clean gloves or not. Once noticed, it should have been picked up using sterile tweezers, and placed into a sterile paper envelope, then immediately sealed for transportation to the lab. The "crack" forensic goons had no business even placing their hands on it ("clean" gloves or not), let alone passing it round, rubbing it, replacing it onto the floor etc. They violated the most basic tenets of forensic crime scene examination, and fortunately it's all captured for posterity on their video.

Re your last question: I have no idea. I also have no idea whether Hellmann will allow additional evidence regarding the log files on Sollecito's Mac (which the defence alleges indicate regular user activity throughout the evening and night of the 1st/2nd November).
 
It's still unclear to me as to whether there exists a DNA profile that matches the profile of Meredith on the knife blade. At yesterday's questioning, Comodi got one of the neutral experts to concede that the knife profile *could* be a match to Meredith's profile. They also conceded that it was a complete genetic profile -- meaning 13 or more Loci (ok, I don't know much about DNA). So if the knife had a full genetic profile, then shouldn't it be easy science to include or exclude Meredith's profile? Why then all the fuzz that it "could be"? Before this I was under the impression that the genetic profile on the knife was incomplete and as such was only a partial match to Meredith's (thus not reliable).

It was a difficult day to understand.

The scientists aren't there to make up "why" and "how" scenario's. Thats why the Judge cut Commodi off.

The knife as a murder weapon was eliminated because the logic of the results from C&V = no blood + no cleaning = Knife is not the murder weapon.

I think for Hellman's job....the knife is no longer a murder weapon, so the dna charts and issues are now irrelevant. It doesnt matter to him if the low rfu Meredith peaks were from the tool or handling.


my 2 cents anyway...
 
It was a difficult day to understand.

The scientists aren't there to make up "why" and "how" scenario's. Thats why the Judge cut Commodi off.

The knife as a murder weapon was eliminated because the logic of the results from C&V = no blood + no cleaning = Knife is not the murder weapon.
I think for Hellman's job....the knife is no longer a murder weapon, so the dna charts and issues are now irrelevant. It doesnt matter to him if the low rfu Meredith peaks were from the tool or handling.


my 2 cents anyway...

That's exactly right. The knife is out. Any further questioning will be a waste of time.
 
That's exactly right. The knife is out. Any further questioning will be a waste of time.

Exactly. And to all intents, the bra clasp is out as well. There are simply too many huge errors and breaches of protocol that have been identified throughout the whole chain of custody and testing of the clasp. This is what many of the pro-guilters just can't understand. Yes it's possible that Sollecito deposited his DNA onto the bra clasp through primary contact during (or shortly after) the murder of Meredith Kercher*. But the egregious mistakes made by the "crack" forensics team render that as only one of many possibilities as to how that DNA might have ended up on that clasp. And that means that it's not valid evidence of Sollecito's participation in the murder.

* Although of course it's difficult to come to this conclusion in the correct context that Sollecito's DNA was discovered nowhere else on Meredith's body, clothing or in her room, apart from on a tiny metal hook on her bra clasp.
 
Yes, she said that according to Raffaele. But it's another thing.

Raffaele, however, lied, on it's own, of having a look at it.
Why?

An awful lot of the internet guilter case (as opposed to the Massei case which uses different tools) has been ginned up by a process of amateurs examining every detail of Amanda and Raffaele's statements about every tiny aspect of the case, and then triumphantly presenting every error or contradiction as proof they are lying murderers.

The fundamental error here is called "ignoring the base rate". There is going to be a base rate at which normal, innocent people get things wrong, misremember, fail to observe correctly and so on. We all do it, all the time. The question is whether Raffaele and Amanda get things wrong at a rate greater than the base rate, and do so about things that actually matter one tiny little bit to their guilt or innocence.

The poo observation under discussion here fails both tests in my view. Most importantly there is no sensible way to tie this "lie" in to their guilt or innocence. I see no reason why guilty people have any reason at all to lie about the matter, and hence no reason to think that guilty people would make false statements about the poo at a rate higher than the base rate. However it also hasn't been shown that Amanda and Raffaele got anything wrong at a rate higher than the base rate.

Another illustration of exactly the same cognitive error is that Filomena and the various police and prosecution officials have between them made an enormous number of false statements in the course of this case. The guilters, although they are not equipped to put it in these terms, explain these as being base rate errors that are not evidence of anything being amiss - everyone makes errors sometimes, and when the errors are "inconsequential" (Amanda's jumper, the Harry Potter book, the bleach receipts, the tests for blood on the luminol prints, the controls for the DNA tests, et cetera ad nauseam) they are meaningless, right?

The double standard is indicative of people trying to reason from a conclusion to the evidence, not from the evidence to a conclusion.
 
Originally Posted by RoseMontague View Post
Umbria24 also thought Hellmann's words on the negative controls possibly had some special meaning (or maybe not) as did Frank.


Quote:
The presiding judge, who indicated that the contamination could have occurred even before the remains arrived in the laboratory. Un'osservazione che sa di qualcosa di più. An observation that smacks of something more. O forse no. Or maybe not.


http://www.umbria24.it/meredith-il-p...dna/53359.html



It's good to have someone pointing that out, beacuse the guilters were all over Frank's piece and said that he must've invented the story or didn't understand what Hellmann *wanted* to say.

They're truly hilarious.

This is FBN's take on this quote:

This demonstrates that Hellman:

1. is keeping the issue of contamination in the proper perspective.

2. does not harbor any doubts about the evidence handling capabilities of Stefanoni's Rome lab (he's willing to take them at their reputation and word).
 
Novelli isn't actually defending Stefanoni's results or methods in this quote. Environment contamination by dust was just one of the possibilities highlighted by C&V, based on a fairly new (2008) research paper. It's understandable he's either not familiar or disagrees with it.

It's also relatively unlikely (although not totally impossible) to get a mostly-complete profile like the one on the bra clasp from ambient dust contamination. As I understand the science dust contamination typically yields fragmentary profiles.

I think Novelli's mistake is partially in not being totally current on the literature (if what Katody is saying is correct) and partially not correcting for the fact that Raffaele having committed the crime as described in Massei is an event comparably unlikely to a meteorite hitting the house.

Once again the guilters who like Novelli's comment don't grasp that anything that decreases the likelihood of accidental contamination explaining the bra clasp result proportionally increases the likelihood of deliberate falsification.
 
Once again the guilters who like Novelli's comment don't grasp that anything that decreases the likelihood of accidental contamination explaining the bra clasp result proportionally increases the likelihood of deliberate falsification.

Frank points this out in the comments as well, which tells you how he is thinking on this.
 
I just stepped slowly through the video using the youtube viewer. It might be possible to come up with an absolutely definitive answer if the video was uploaded and reviewed with a more sophisticated viewer but even without that unless the guy was doing a magic act it looks like it is extremely likely that he dropped it.

In one frame the clasp is between his two fingers and in the next it is missing. The eyes of the person standing beside the man who presumably dropped the clasp seem to follow the clasp to the floor.


You should talk to Randi about conjurers tricks. This one would be a classic example if they had done it on purpose.

If you have a Mac, you already have the tools you need to download the video fast scrub to the important parts and single step through the frames. Just play the video in safari as you normally would and while it is still playing, open the activity window, find the element that is still downloading and double click it. This will download a copy you can keep. Click on that copy when it finishes downloading and it will launch QuickTime to view the video. The floating control panel gives you the normal play pause, double time or grab the progress indicator and scrub through to find the scene you want. When the video is paused you can tap the right and left arrow keys on the keyboard to forward or backup one frame at a time. Why anyone would make do with anything less is a mystery to me.


There's another issue here that I'm sure has been brought up, but if there was any doubt about the DNA match on the clasp then all that would be necessary was to test the bra itself for DNA. If one couldn't corroborate a shaky DNA test with a more reliable test on an area where the alleged handler of the clasps would almost certainly have had to touch then the reliability of the clasp DNA results should probably be completely discounted given the unlikelihood that the clasp was touched but the rest of the bra wasn't.

You've probably already noticed how the hooks on the clasp are deformed and almost torn off. This is consistent with someone pulling very hard on the band. It was initially theorized that the clasp was cut off of the band with a knife when the bra refused to yield to being pulled apart. However, a close examination of the bra will reveal that nothing has been cut and that the back band and right shoulder strap had pealed apart at the stitch line and that the clasp similarly became unstitched from the band. The place to grab the bra to exert the pull necessary for it to disassemble this way is on the band behind the right shoulder. Steffanoni tested several places on the bra and found Rudy's DNA in two of them. This is one of those places.

But wait, there's more. Have you ever been lifting something by a strap when the strap suddenly broke on one side? If you have then you know what a rope burn is like. If Rudy was lifting Meredith by the band on the back of the bra when the clasp suddenly broke free, Rudy would have received a rope burn from the rough edges of that band sliding through his fingers.

Have you seen the picture of Rudy's hand from when he was in jail in Germany? Rudy claims that he was attacked by the assailant that killed Meredith and got cut on his hand. But Rudy's blood is not found anywhere in the apartment and I believe Rudy himself says it never bled. Knife cuts bleed. If Rudy stopped a knife with his hand it would have cut deep and bled a lot. Rope burns however don't bleed but they sure do sting.

But none of this explains how Raffaele's DNA ended up on one of the metal hooks of that severed clasp with no other evidence of Raffaele anywhere in the room where the murder took place.


Question:
What's going on with the hard drive evidence? What efforts have been made to recover the data from it?


There are multiple hard drives. For the drive from Raffaele's MacBook Pro, it was cloned successfully and both the prosecution and defense have their own copies. The prosecution experts used their Encase forensics software that looked at file modification times and declared that there was "no trace of human interaction" on Mr Sollecito's computer between 9.10pm on Nov 1, 2007, and 5.32am the next morning. On cross, the defense brought up the opening of Naruto at 9:26 and the experts flatly denied that it was possible saying that "if there was activity, they would have seen it". The Naruto file access was recorded in the Spotlight metadata as the file time stamp was overwritten by a subsequent access through the peer to peer file sharing. The defense also brought up a 3 second access to Apple's homepage just before 1am recorded by Raffaele's ISP (Internet providers are required by law to record all HTTP connections. Isn't that wonderful). The prosecution's experts buried that for no decreeable reason. And finally, in Raffaele's appeal, the defense have pointed out that there is log file records of the screen saver activity showing continual human activity on Raffaele's computer up till 6am with no period of screensaver activation longer than 6 minutes.
 
If six days is long enough to get Meredith's DNA out of the lab machine, then isn't five days long enough to get Meredith's DNA off the kitchen knife?
Yes - the guy fron Avon on the Thames - didn't he also say "The first thing we do is kill all the liars!" (Hmm .. could we start with Comodi?).
The investigating officer who took the knife out of Raffaele's kitchen drawer testified that the knife was clean, shiny and lying on top of the rest of the silverware. That was five days after the murder, during which time Amanda and Raffaele were living at his apartment.

Either the knife was being used by them for cooking during that time and, accordingly, washed more than once, or they were using other knives -- carefully ensuring, of course, that at the end of every meal the murder weapon was returned to its place of honor on top of the other silverware.

(In case the cops dropped by.)



Illusoric! I knew him, Horatio.....
Yes - the man from Avon on the Thames strikes again! BTW - didn't he say "The first thing we do is kill all the lawyers!" (Henry VI ?)
(Hmm - can we start with Comodi?)
 
I am genuinely stunned that there is a Perugian Magistrate who can use logic.

Hellman is NOT a native Perugian - he is from the north of Italy IIRC. Also he has already been part of panel that overturned a murder conviction that had been through all three trials (including the DC of Italy) back in 2002 IIRC. This guy has cojones (BTW - what is the Italian word for cojones?)
 
It's again general contamination theories.

Specifically for the clasp:
Was it contaminated before it got into the plastic bag or was it contaminated when they took it out and prepared it for the testing?
I don't beleive that it was contaminated after that in the equipment.

Well it is certainly possible to be contaminated by, near or on the equipment. It depends on what remains in the machine after or if it was cleaned and further after it is tested with the proper controls both positive and negative. The capillary tubes can be contaminated and past these contamination can remain in the machine from a previous test.

That’s why the controls are an essential part of the testing. Its also why the electronic data files are important...beyond the machine settings these files can also show the order in which samples were tested. So, for example, when Comodi states that 6 days passed with no test or whatever she actually said then this will easily be shown in the EDF. And if she has told a little fib here then we will see the independent experts calling her hand. Personally I think she’s bluffing as she tried to do with control sample data sheets. She best be careful...she might be facing some calunlingus charges herself...I hope I spelled that right...my Italian is terrible.:o
 
In a lab that had amplified the victim's DNA 268 million times (with each amplification), the probability that the lab was free of the victim's DNA was zero.

Another lab that studied animal DNA was found to be contaminated with human DNA that could NOT be removed.

I think we were rather surprised to find the victims supposed DNA, in the unlikely event that it was genuinely present on the knife, was tainted with starch
 
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The contamination argument sounds like Ben Johnson's explanation when he was caught doping: "Someone put it into my bottle".
And of course almost all other athletes caught come up with similar stories.
Just recall Floyd Landis.
His lawyers also wanted to demolish the lab. :D

So to defend the work of a criminal lab where life or death (literally) are on the line you equate the independent experts' critique as no different than criticisms of sports testing labs by those individuals who were caught? Of course Johnson and Landis had lots to lose - medals, trophies, money and reputations - explains their motivation to contest those labs findings (BTW - remind me - what are Ben & Floyd's scientific bonfides that make them experts in any field of science.

Please explain what were C & V motivations? Hmm - never mind - I forgot about the power and influence of Marriott PR machine.:rolleyes:
 
So, for example, when Comodi states that 6 days passed with no test or whatever she actually said then this will easily be shown in the EDF. And if she has told a little fib here then we will see the independent experts calling her hand. Personally I think she’s bluffing as she tried to do with control sample data sheets.

I was surprised no one asked whether any tests were done on items linked to Meredith on the same day as the knife, never mind the six days before that. Ordinarily you'd assume not, since that would make the six days claim meaningless, but then this is Manuela "12 p.m. phone call" Comodi we're talking about. Perhaps they only tested items from Raffaele's flat on that day, but I reckon I'd still be double-checking if I were the defence!
 
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