UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Why do you REFUSE to list the supporting documentation that demonstrates HOW you employ these FACTORS in assessing UFO reports for reliability? Anybody can google a bunch of books and list them. I am asking you to give us relevant quotes that support your claim that you can do assess these reports properly (i.e. objectively without bias). Feel free to present your case to demonstrate that you are not simply making this up. Your REFUSAL to do so implies this is not an objective measurement but a subjective measurement that is influenced by your own personal bias/beliefs.

Additionally, choosing Rogue River and Campeche is cherry picking. Try working with raw cases that you are not biased towards and are not sure if they are good UFO reports or not. Additionally, you are not influenced by other UFOlogists and their opinions. That is where you can prove that your methodology works or doesn't work.

I have of course explained all that, providing detailed examples and indicating reference sources. That you simply ignore those explanations and sources to simply repeat (over and over like a mantra) your original unfounded assertions does not surprise me in the least.

Then, at your request, I included the following case (that I have not presented before) and described (again at your request) how a principle of perception has been utilised in that case (thinking perhaps you might even have been pleased that it was used by a debunker to form the basis of his own argument against the case) and all you have to say is:
Big snip of the usual repeats


Tremonton, Utah, UFO Colour Film (02 July 1952)
(http://www.nicap.org/utahdir.htm)
Video including the 1950 Montana film
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9kwsvnmwks&feature=channel_page)

I’ve heard of ignoring the evidence, but you have taken the cake!


Well that's a "safe" claim...unknowns always "defy explanation"....so what.
That was “defy mundane explanation” R.A.F. – I do see though why you might be in some difficulty over all of this if you cannot quote your sources accurately…

Of course you should have recognised also that the cases I have been presenting “defy plausible mundane explanation” – for it is the case that the UFO debunkers do “explain” those cases implausibly – for example blimp at Rogue River, hoax at Delphos, etc.

Anyone can come up with an explanation (thus falsifying your “so what” statement) – but what counts is whether or not that explanation is a plausible explanation. If no plausible mundane explanation can be found, then we are legitimately entitled to look for (speculate, hypothesise) other plausible explanations – such as ET for example.

What makes ET plausible? Nothing in our knowledge of the natural or technological world rules it out. There are the reliable observations of ostensible “nuts and bolts” craft, intelligent control and associated beings – and there is the is the multiple eyewitness testimony as well as radar, film, photographic and physical trace evidence. So in the absence of plausible mundane explanations, we can legitimately turn to plausible alternate explanations.
 
I’ve heard of ignoring the evidence, but you have taken the cake!
I'll have a slice of this one thanks.

BlimpCake.jpg
 
I have of course explained all that, providing detailed examples and indicating reference sources. That you simply ignore those explanations and sources to simply repeat (over and over like a mantra) your original unfounded assertions does not surprise me in the least.:

I have no idea how you can make such claims as a scientist. I just see a lot of claims about how your methodology is supported by various documents. Then you can't seem to provide applicable citations or direction so others may learn and reproduce your methodology. Perhaps others in this forum might take the time to explain it to me because you are not doing a very good job of explaining it.

Then, at your request, I included the following case (that I have not presented before) and described (again at your request) how a principle of perception has been utilised in that case (thinking perhaps you might even have been pleased that it was used by a debunker to form the basis of his own argument against the case) and all you have to say is:

This is an invalid case. It is influenced by its status and other researchers. This is why you need to use raw reports that have not been established as "classic" cases and where you are influenced by the opinions of other UFO proponents. Only then can you prove that your methodology is correct.

BTW, I am not ignoring the case you are presenting. I just want you to demonstrate how your methodology can work on cases that are not so publicized. This case is low hanging fruit where you just repeat the tired old UFO proponent arguments. We know you are good at that but not very good at going beyond what is available on the web. This is probably why you are having a problem providing citations for your methodology of assessing these reports for being reliable/accurate.
 
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That was “defy mundane explanation” R.A.F. – I do see though why you might be in some difficulty over all of this if you cannot quote your sources accurately…

Of course you should have recognised also that the cases I have been presenting “defy plausible mundane explanation” – for it is the case that the UFO debunkers do “explain” those cases implausibly – for example blimp at Rogue River, hoax at Delphos, etc.
You'll have to show your working for why those explanations are implausible after they have definitively been shown to be not only plausible but most likely. What you should have recognized is that your simply repeating as a mantra that those cases defy plausible mundane explanation is causing you to look like a simple teller of untruths - nothing more, nothing less.

Anyone can come up with an explanation (thus falsifying your “so what” statement) – but what counts is whether or not that explanation is a plausible explanation. If no plausible mundane explanation can be found, then we are legitimately entitled to look for (speculate, hypothesise) other plausible explanations – such as ET for example.
But you've proven that you have absolutely no ability to eliminate plausible mundane explanations, let alone all mundane explanations. And since you have been shown that ET is not plausible, your continuing to posit it as plausible marks you as a simple teler of untruths - nothing more, nothing less.

What makes ET plausible? Nothing in our knowledge of the natural or technological world rules it out. There are the reliable observations of ostensible “nuts and bolts” craft, intelligent control and associated beings – and there is the is the multiple eyewitness testimony as well as radar, film, photographic and physical trace evidence. So in the absence of plausible mundane explanations, we can legitimately turn to plausible alternate explanations.
What makes ET implausible? That it has never been shown to have visited. There have been no observations of ET nuts and bolts craft, there has been no ET intelligent control or associated ET beings, and there is no photographic or physical trace evidence of ET being here, nor is there radar or film evidence of ET ever being here. There is also no FLIR evidence for ET, since you forgot it again. Only pseudoscientists jump to their conclusion as you do that the answer is ET. So in the absence of plausilble non-mundane explanations, we can only legitimately turn to mundane explanations, such as blimps, oil well fires and HOAX. I've used the actual process of elimination to eliminate plausible non-mundane explanations, leaving only "mundane".

Rramjet has proven that he has absolutely no ability to eliminate mundane explanations while I've never been shown to be wrong. Your continuing to claim that you can eliminate plausible mundane explanations makes you look like a simple teller of untruths - nothing more, nothing less.
 
I have no idea how you can make such claims as a scientist. I just see a lot of claims about how your methodology is supported by various documents. Then you can't seem to provide applicable citations or direction so others may learn and reproduce your methodology. Perhaps others in this forum might take the time to explain it to me because you are not doing a very good job of explaining it.
Do you want me to call you a liar? You would like that wouldn’t you…

For example when you state “…where you just repeat the tired old UFO proponent arguments” …I actually presented a UFO debunker’s side of the story to demonstrate my point.... That could not have escaped your attention surely… So I will refrain from calling you a liar because it may be the case that my statements on the matter have simply escaped your attention (I also believe that to do so would be uncivil and this is supposed to be a civil debate after all…).

What makes ET implausible? That it has never been shown to have visited.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Besides you seem to be hand waving away all the circumstantial evidence – resorting to mere proclamation – as if the mere statement of unfounded assertion will somehow magically make those statements true. I can tell you (again…) that claims made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

There have been no observations of ET nuts and bolts craft…
The Zamora Incident (24 Apr 1964)
(http://www.nicap.org/zamoradir.htm)
Blue Book case report
(http://www.nicap.org/zamora2.htm)
(http://www.ufocasebook.com/Zamorareport.html)

…there has been no ET intelligent control…
Tehran UFO Incident (19 Sep 1976)
( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5kT2OE1i1Q&feature=related)
(http://www.brumac.8k.com/IranJetCase/)

…or associated ET beings…
The Father Gill - Papua New Guinea UFO (26-28 Jun 1959)
(http://www.ufoevidence.org/cases/case67.htm)
(http://www.qtm.net/~geibdan/a1998/jan/gill.html)
(http://www.ufocasebook.com/gillinterview.html)

…and there is no photographic…
The Trent - McMinnville UFO (11 May 1950)
(http://ncas.org/condon/text/case46.htm)
Photo 1. (http://www.debunker.com/images2/Trent1_Full_400dpi.jpg)
Photo 2. (http://www.debunker.com/images2/Trent2_Full_400dpi.jpg)
Photo Analysis: (http://brumac.8k.com/trent1.html)
(http://brumac.8k.com/trent2.html)

…or physical trace evidence…
Val Jonhson - Minnesota Vehicle Interference and Physical Traces Event (27 Aug. 1979)
(http://ufologie.net/htm/marshallcounty79.htm)
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Val_Johnson_incident)

…of ET being here…
The above seems to create a good circumstantial case.

…nor is there radar…
The New Zealand (Kaikoura) UFO sightings (31 Dec 1978)
(http://www.scoop.co.nz/multimedia/tv/technology/14461.html)
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q3iq4R8MgM)
New Zealand Radar Sighting.
(http://brumac.8k.com/NEW_ZEALAND/RADARUFOS.doc)

…or film evidence…
Tremonton, Utah, UFO Colour Film (02 July 1952)
(http://www.nicap.org/utahdir.htm)
Video including the 1950 Montana film
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9kwsvnmwks&feature=channel_page)

…of ET ever being here.
The above seems to create a good circumstantial case.

There is also no FLIR evidence for ET, since you forgot it again.
You mean this radar case?

The Campeche Incident (5 Mar 2004)
(http://brumac.8k.com/MexicanDOD5mar04/)
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlX7vvYXzxA)

LOL. How could I forget? After all you keep reminding me to look at that case.

Only pseudoscientists jump to their conclusion as you do that the answer is ET.
I have NEVER claimed ET to be the explanation (or the “answer”) – merely that in the absence of plausible mundane explanations the ET hypothesis is a plausible alternative.

So in the absence of plausilble non-mundane explanations…
The ET hypothesis is a plausible explanation because science does not rule out ET visitation and demonstrably we have the above evidence supporting it.

…we can only legitimately turn to mundane explanations, such as blimps, oil well fires and HOAX.
…and of course that is why the term plausible becomes necessary. Any explanation proposed will have to pass the plausibility test – that is, is such an explanation plausible?

I've used the actual process of elimination to eliminate plausible non-mundane explanations, leaving only "mundane".
You keep saying that – but have never demonstrated by evidence or logical argument that your unfounded assertion is actually true. Claims made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence RoboT.
 
But now we also find out you were looking at it through glass.
I already know what the most likely answer to this is going to be, but I'll suggest it anyway: A reflection of something behind you that was a lot closer and smaller.

Yeah I am definately thinking Kenneth Arnold at this stage. The clincher for me seems to be the complete lack of interaction between the object and its enviroment. An object travelling at over 50,000 miles an hour is going to make a mess - A big mess
 
Yeah I am definately thinking Kenneth Arnold at this stage. The clincher for me seems to be the complete lack of interaction between the object and its enviroment. An object travelling at over 50,000 miles an hour is going to make a mess - A big mess


It's going to make a fair old sonic boom too, I shouldn't wonder.
 
Rramjet said:
What makes ET implausible? That it has never been shown to have visited.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Besides you seem to be hand waving away all the circumstantial evidence – resorting to mere proclamation – as if the mere statement of unfounded assertion will somehow magically make those statements true. I can tell you (again…) that claims made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of evidence, as you seem to be asserting. There is no circumstantial evidence for ET. Why do you continually assert without foundation that there is? Your claims made without evidence are still dismissed.

There have been no observations of ET nuts and bolts craft…
The Zamora Incident (24 Apr 1964)
(http://www.nicap.org/zamoradir.htm)
Blue Book case report
(http://www.nicap.org/zamora2.htm)
(http://www.ufocasebook.com/Zamorareport.html)
Where was it confirmed that these were ET? Or that there was anything at all, for that matter? Oh, you've started with your conclusion.

Where was it confirmed that ET was involved? Oh, you've started with your conclusion again. That's very pseudoscientific.

Where was it confirmed that ET was involved? Oh, you've started with your conclusion again. That isn't critical thinking.

Where was it confirmed... well, you know the drill. You've begun with your conclusion again.

…or physical trace evidence…
Val Jonhson - Minnesota Vehicle Interference and Physical Traces Event (27 Aug. 1979)
(http://ufologie.net/htm/marshallcounty79.htm)
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Val_Johnson_incident)
Where was it...? Don't tell me, you've started with your conclusion? Only a pseudoscientist would do that.

…of ET being here…
The above seems to create a good circumstantial case.
Well, no. :) You've started with your conclusion that it's pseudoaliens and retrofitted anything you could. How tall are pseudoaliens?

And you think it's pseudoaliens because..? Oh yes, your conclusion first.

…or film evidence…
Tremonton, Utah, UFO Colour Film (02 July 1952)
(http://www.nicap.org/utahdir.htm)
Video including the 1950 Montana film
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9kwsvnmwks&feature=channel_page)
And you think that's pseudoaliens because...? Um, conclusion first, yes?

…of ET ever being here.
The above seems to create a good circumstantial case.
Well, no. It is a case of you beginning with your conclusion and making everything be your conclusion. Pseudoscience, if you will.

There is also no FLIR evidence for ET, since you forgot it again.
You mean this radar case?

The Campeche Incident (5 Mar 2004)
(http://brumac.8k.com/MexicanDOD5mar04/)
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlX7vvYXzxA)

LOL. How could I forget? After all you keep reminding me to look at that case.
No, I mean the FLIR case. The one you keep forgetting. LOL! The one that your version of a process of elimination had eliminated all plausible mundane explanations and you thought it was pseudoaliens and it turned out to be oil well fires! LOL!

Only pseudoscientists jump to their conclusion as you do that the answer is ET.
I have NEVER claimed ET to be the explanation (or the “answer”) – merely that in the absence of plausible mundane explanations the ET hypothesis is a plausible alternative.
But it isn't. Do you see the difference? If not, why not? The process of elimination says that all of your cases positively defy plausible non-mundane explanation.

So in the absence of plausilble non-mundane explanations…
The ET hypothesis is a plausible explanation because science does not rule out ET visitation and demonstrably we have the above evidence supporting it.
But it isn't because ET has never been shown to have visited here and there is no evidence that ET has visited here. Do you see the difference? If not, why not? Remember, you've started with your conclusion.

…we can only legitimately turn to mundane explanations, such as blimps, oil well fires and HOAX.
…and of course that is why the term plausible becomes necessary. Any explanation proposed will have to pass the plausibility test – that is, is such an explanation plausible? Exactly! Such as blimps, oil well fires and HOAX. Now you're catching on.

I've used the actual process of elimination to eliminate plausible non-mundane explanations, leaving only "mundane".
You keep saying that – but have never demonstrated by evidence or logical argument that your unfounded assertion is actually true. Claims made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence RoboT.
You shouldn't lie like that.

Well, no. :) You keep untruthfully asserting that your version of a process of elimination shows that some cases positively defy plausible mundane explanation. You've proven yourself utterly and totally wrong so many times, I'm surprised that the shame of that doesn't equal the shame of your being a pseudoscientist. Remember Campeche, your Dismay at the Delphos HOAX, your DebriWP Debacle, the purported letter at Venezuela?

The real process of elimination has determined that all of your cases positively defy plausible non-mundane explanation leaving only "mundane". ET is not a plausible mundane or non-mundane explanation as I've explained to you.
 
... and yet, some of the answers you gave here conflict with each other and the recollection you posted in your CV on your website.

How do you explain the discrepancies I pointed out in post 265 and 268 if, "every answer you give is as how it happened", and "if you weren't certain, or didn't recall, you'd say so"?


These discrepancies aren't related to being unsure of what happened then, rather they are a consequence hastily slapping out responses here now. The elevation difference was just a bad metric conversion estimate and the album title was a mixup of the album covers. Heartbreaker and The Lemon Song are two songs that got etched into my brain that night, and they are indeed on Led Zeppelin Two ... so I'll eat a little dirt on that.

j.r.
 
These discrepancies aren't related to being unsure of what happened then, rather they are a consequence hastily slapping out responses here now. The elevation difference was just a bad metric conversion estimate and the album title was a mixup of the album covers. Heartbreaker and The Lemon Song are two songs that got etched into my brain that night, and they are indeed on Led Zeppelin Two ... so I'll eat a little dirt on that.

j.r.


The point remains, however, that you've demonstrated that your memory is a poor servant. If you can't remember what was in your previous account of the event then why should anyone, including yourself, believe that you are now or were then remembering the actual event correctly?
 
The point remains, however, that you've demonstrated that your memory is a poor servant. If you can't remember what was in your previous account of the event then why should anyone, including yourself, believe that you are now or were then remembering the actual event correctly?


I've demonstrated no such thing as my memory being "a poor servant", only that it isn't perfect all the time. So what? Nobody's is. Scientific experiments also have a magin of error and there are probably millions of technology malfunctions every day. Scientists are also fallible even with simple things ... just look at the Hubble telescope ... the main mirror was ground incorrectly. Does that make them completely incompetent? So be fair minded about this. It isn't reasonable to blow a minor glitch in the haste of a forum post into a complete memory meltdown.

j.r.
 
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I've demonstrated no such thing as my memory being "a poor servant", only that it isn't perfect all the time. So what? Nobody's is. Scientific experiments also have a magin of error and there are probably millions of technology malfunctions every day. Scientists are also fallible even with simple things ... just look at the Hubble telescope ... they screwed up basic Imperial to Metric conversions for that. Does that make them completely incompetent? So be fair minded about this. It isn't reasonable to blow a minor glitch in the haste of a forum post into a complete memory meltdown.

j.r.

No you are thinking of the Mars probe
 
I've demonstrated no such thing as my memory being "a poor servant", only that it isn't perfect all the time.


But since you can't know when it's perfect and when it's not then it's unreliable.

QED


So what? Nobody's is.


I know. That's why anecdotes ≠ evidence.


So be fair minded about this. It isn't reasonable to blow a minor glitch in the haste of a forum post into a complete memory meltdown.

j.r.


Hyperbole much?
 
No you are thinking of the Mars probe


I've seen reports making mention of the Hubble having errors due to Metric conversions ... and you are saying the Mars probe too now. Only goes to show.

j.r.
 
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The obvious answer, at least to me, is that there certainly should be life out there. I doubt there's a logical reason to believe in the contrary.

But the possibility of intelligent life at the civilization status or beyond is very intriguing. We haven't been contacted yet by a species with such a mastery on the cosmos as to find our planet. Perhaps such an alien race has no desire to look for us because they have manipulated their immortal consciousnesses to a state content in not finding all advanced lifeforms. Maybe they are watching from a distance, finding entertainment in our species since even the most intelligent of beings might still be able to appreciate the chaotic factors of evolution, genes and memes alike. Or maybe there is no such race that exists yet. Perhaps all advanced civilizations are confined to their own galaxy via near-light-speed travel. Or, interestingly, maybe homo sapiens are at the frontier of evolution in the whole cosmos. That is to say, we could be the first species in the universe to reach the 'technological singularity'.

Random speculation, but it's definitely interesting to ponder on. Any thoughts?
 
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