Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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It seems unlikely you'll find anywhere. After all, the guilters could easily come here to debate as they won't get banned for having opposing opinions, but for some reason they refuse to (probably because they can't stand to have an opposing opinion put to them). But you can't go to their forums because - you guessed it - they ban opposing opinions.

It's funny really. Quite a lot of them claim to be quite left-wing, but they act like fascists.
 
I like a good discussion with both sides involved. If anybody knows a place where that is happening, let me know.

There is currently a debate in progress at Less Wrong between me and Rolf Nelson, the most impressive believer in guilt I have ever encountered.

Added: although Rolf has just posted a comment questioning whether the discussion should continue. I'll have to consider what he says and then decide how to proceed.
 
There is currently a debate in progress at Less Wrong between me and Rolf Nelson, the most impressive believer in guilt I have ever encountered.

Added: although Rolf has just posted a comment questioning whether the discussion should continue. I'll have to consider what he says and then decide how to proceed.

Thanks. I am a firm believer in rational thought. Unfortunately, I don't find math entirely rational. Do you think it's worth me going over there without an equation up my sleeve? ℚ
 
It's funny really. Quite a lot of them claim to be quite left-wing, but they act like fascists.

One of the fascinating aspects of this case, from the point of view of what you might call the sociological aspect of belief, is the way it completely cuts across and confuses the standard political divisions in both Italy and the U.S. (I haven't really been able to determine how opinions on this case relate or should relate to U.K. politics, beyond noting that the Guardian tends to be more favorable to innocence than the Telegraph). If you assume that people make up their minds based on which position most closely aligns with their ideological orientation, you might think that:

  • An American "conservative" (right-winger) should be an innocence supporter, due to nationalism and suspicion of foreign legal systems. But on the other hand, such people tend to be highly skeptical of advocacy on behalf of defendants and claims of wrongful conviction, and moreover would be unlikely to have sympathy for Amanda Knox, many of whose personality traits correlate strongly with left-wing affiliation.
  • An American "liberal" (left-winger) should be an innocence supporter, due to "bleeding heart" sympathy for criminal defendants and mistrust of authorities such as police and prosecutors. But on the other hand, these folks love to flaunt their Europhilia, and absolutely dread the thought of being perceived as American chauvinists. Being a guilter allows them to show off how much respect they have for Italy, and to distance themselves from those unsophisticated, provincial Americans who are so naïve to think that a pretty girl from Seattle Prep can do no wrong.
  • An Italian right-winger should be a guilter, due to a strong sense of law-and-order, patriotism, and disdain for Amanda's "free spirit" personality. But on the other hand, right-wingers are more pro-U.S. and anti-judiciary (with their leader, Berlusconi, constantly running afoul of magistrates), so they might be expected to come to Amanda's defense sooner than their political opponents ( some of whom perhaps used to admire the Soviet Union more than the United States).
  • An Italian left-winger should be a guilter, due to hostility toward the United States and support of the magistrate class (which can be counted on to hold Berlusconi's feet to the fire when no one else will). But on the other hand, left-wingers include the kind of open-minded intellectuals who distrust police, are sympathetic toward free-spirited university students, and are willing to be contrarian critics of their own country and its institutions.

So the result is pretty much a complete lack of correlation between political views and opinions on this case, at least in these two countries, producing many cases of strange bedfellows. (And I must say I have no problem linking Peggy Ganong and Ann Coulter; as far as I'm concerned, they deserve each other.)
 
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Thanks. I am a firm believer in rational thought. Unfortunately, I don't find math entirely rational. Do you think it's worth me going over there without an equation up my sleeve? ℚ

I think it's worth reading, at least. I could be wrong, but my impression is that the mathematical language is not really much of an impediment to understanding the arguments. (And if you don't understand something, you are allowed to ask for clarification!)
 
frequency of contamination

There is currently a debate in progress at Less Wrong between me and Rolf Nelson, the most impressive believer in guilt I have ever encountered.

Added: although Rolf has just posted a comment questioning whether the discussion should continue. I'll have to consider what he says and then decide how to proceed.
komponisto and RoseMontague,

I added a comment at LessWrong about the frequency of contamination, which is a difficult number to pin down. I also added a comment at PMF (Michael) on Dr. Lednev's take on the luminol-based evidence. It seems to me that his comments deserve more consideration than they have so far received.
 
Translation update

The first 30 pages of the Conti-Vecchiotti report have now been translated. This is the section describing the new tests that Conti and Vecchiotti attempted to run on the knife and bra clasp, without much success.

As I mentioned before, katy_did is going to join the translation effort, and, I am given to understand, will soon post a translation of the next section (pp.30-49), which summarizes the test results and goes on to discuss proper forensic investigative procedures, serving as a sort of preface to the criticism of Stefanoni that constitutes the real meat of the report (p.50 onward).

By the way, if anyone else is interested in participating in the translation, they are invited to contact me by PM.
 
The first 30 pages of the Conti-Vecchiotti report have now been translated. This is the section describing the new tests that Conti and Vecchiotti attempted to run on the knife and bra clasp, without much success.

As I mentioned before, katy_did is going to join the translation effort, and, I am given to understand, will soon post a translation of the next section (pp.30-49), which summarizes the test results and goes on to discuss proper forensic investigative procedures, serving as a sort of preface to the criticism of Stefanoni that constitutes the real meat of the report (p.50 onward).

By the way, if anyone else is interested in participating in the translation, they are invited to contact me by PM.

Thanks to both of you for you efforts on this. I have been checking back daily to watch your progress. I would suggest a master document with all of your sections translated together that would also include the charts and tables. Perhaps when you are finished with the text, in any case.

We do have the conclusions as well as some of the sections translated and/or summarized but it will be nice to have this all together. thoughtful has a nice comment regarding FBN's post on the report:

You asked me for "thoughts", Fly by Night, so here are a couple. Essentially, I agree with every single thing you wrote in that post, including the fact that CV are overtly attempting to invalidate the findings of Patrizia Stefanoni.

My only remarks would be with certain statements that are absent from your post. To my mind, you need to fairly present the stronger as well as the weaker aspects of the report to be truly balanced.

1) You do mention the ISFG guidelines, but only lower down, rather than up there with the numerous American references cited, giving the impression at first that European guidelines are not considered.

2) You leave out the two places where the report, to my mind, makes a fair and precise remark about contamination.

a) It can typically happen to LCN samples when they are run in the same machine where ample samples of the same person have already been run, and this is what was done with the knife blade DNA,

b) One way to check that the bra clasp did not pick up Raffaele's DNA from the floor would have been to swab the floor. This was apparently not done, and for all we know, Raffaele's DNA could have been all over the floor and if so, that would certainly have been a good thing to know.

3) You say that CV accuse Stefanoni of the "misattribution" of peaks, but you don't add the important facts that

a) she attributed certain peaks - quite a number of them - to stutter rather than human beings.

b) these were exactly every peak not belonging to Raffaele Sollecito (himself undoubtedly present in the Y-haplotype, and in greater quantity than other contributors)

c) she rejected those other peaks in spite of, and not according to, the ISFG guidelines. Indeed, the guidelines are not intended to be rigorously and rigidly followed, as she stated in court, but nor are they meant to be ignored in the case of every single peak except for that of the main contributor/suspect, unless another specific criterion or reason for doing so is supplied, which as far as we know it was not.

I also agree that CV are attempting to invalidate the findings simply because it is clear to me that they believe those findings to be invalid. As far as some other protocol existing that Stefanoni must have followed, that reasoning flies in the face of common sense. There exist no standards or protocol that allows Stefi to do what thoughtful outlines above. As far as the collection and handling part of it, it is just silly to think that some standard exists that would excuse what was done in this case.

thoughtful summary:
Pages 137-139 contain a detailed criticism of the crime scene investigation, with numerous witness quotes to the effect that shoe-covers were not changed as people went in and out, that every entrance into the crime scene was not written down, that single-use material was not used only once and that no place was set aside to throw away single-use material, that the bra clasp was handled by many people, lifted and set back down in defiance of protocol, etc. etc.
 
I also agree that CV are attempting to invalidate the findings simply because it is clear to me that they believe those findings to be invalid. As far as some other protocol existing that Stefanoni must have followed, that reasoning flies in the face of common sense. There exist no standards or protocol that allows Stefi to do what thoughtful outlines above. As far as the collection and handling part of it, it is just silly to think that some standard exists that would excuse what was done in this case.


Indeed. Conti and Vechiotti have reached conclusions based on the evidence in front of them, without any preconceptions. But the fact that some people seem to think that these two experts somehow "set out" to trash the work of Stefanoni and the "crack" forensics team also (in my view) provides an interesting window to the prevailing pro-guilt mindset. I don't think that many of them (pro-guilt people) can properly conceive of the concept of objectivity and evidence-led beliefs. The independent experts have examined the issue with open minds; the evidence has led them to the conclusion that the specific items they were asked to provide an opinion on (the knife and the bra clasp) are rotten and inadmissible for a whole host of reasons across multiple facets of their identification, collection, handling, transportation, storage, testing and interpretation.

And that leads on to a wider point: I believe that most people arguing here for acquittal (certainly including me) have no emotional bias towards either side. Rather, we have examined the evidence as it is available to us, and have (successfully, in my view) used logic, reason, additional research and deductive analysis to reach a provisional viewpoint. And that viewpoint is that there should be acquittals for both Knox and Sollecito in this case. As I and many others here have long stated, if the evidence had taken us towards guilt, we would have had no problem in arguing for conviction. And, of course, if additional evidence were somehow to come to light which was indicative of guilt and supportable as such, then I (and, I believe, many others here) would change our viewpoints readily and rapidly to a pro-guilt stance.

So, in this respect, I think that most of us here are similar to Conti and Vecchiotti (i.e. in the way in which we have evaluated the evidence objectively to reach an informed viewpoint). On the other hand, I strongly believe that most of those on the pro-guilt side of the argument have long since thrown away any attempt at objectivity or balance (if that was ever there in the first place): I think that their emotional attachments to their positions is now totally clouding their judgement. The "DNA report rebuttal" article on TJMK is just one clear example of this. One only need read the title of the article ("Analysis Suggests The Conti-Vecchiotti DNA Review Is Weak, Tendentious, Cites Non-Existent Standards"(!)) to see what's happening - and the article itself is a poster child for willful misinterpretation in order to support a prior conclusion. But that's sadly predictable.

The truth of the matter is this: Conti and Vecchiotti have produced a report which is essentially correct and accurate in every respect. The report's conclusions and methodology are completely supported by documented standards, procedures and protocols. The knife and bra clasp were indeed improperly identified, collected, handled, transported and stored, and Stefanoni's testing and interpretation methods were both improper and invalid. The court discussion at the end of the month will ultimately confirm all of this - of that I am virtually certain.

And there's really not much more to say right now. The pro-guilt crowd will continue to try to find reasons to discredit the report, and will continue to think (in their ignorant and/or confirmation-biased minds) that they've found marvellous and intellectually-rigorous ways to challenge the report's findings. They are wrong. But I guess they will have to wait until August and beyond to realise that. We rational sceptics are fortunate enough to know that already.
 
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the whole city is to blame

Sarah Scazzie case update. It seems the prosecution has now bugged the entire city in a desire to find some shred of evidence against Sabrina and her Mom. Perhaps they should just build a jail around the whole community? It is amazing that the people there allow this to happen.

http://albatros-volandocontrovento.blogspot.com/2011/07/sarah-scazzi-chissa-se-giudici-ci.html
RoseMontague,

Yes, indeed. How could the whole city let Sabrina and her mom get away with this crime and let poor Michele take the rap?
 
<snip>

And that leads on to a wider point: I believe that most people arguing here for acquittal (certainly including me) have no emotional bias towards either side. Rather, we have examined the evidence as it is available to us, and have (successfully, in my view) used logic, reason, additional research and deductive analysis to reach a provisional viewpoint. And that viewpoint is that there should be acquittals for both Knox and Sollecito in this case. As I and many others here have long stated, if the evidence had taken us towards guilt, we would have had no problem in arguing for conviction. And, of course, if additional evidence were somehow to come to light which was indicative of guilt and supportable as such, then I (and, I believe, many others here) would change our viewpoints readily and rapidly to a pro-guilt stance.

<snip>


That's not how now it looks to this observer which brings me to this post which I ignored at the time as simply more of the same. Perhaps a response is now appropriate.


In the spirit of Mr Machine, I too shall make some predictions. I predict that Stefanoni will get spit-roasted in Hellmann's court at the end of the month (if she chooses to appear in person, that is). I further predict that the entire crime scene investigation personnel and their supervising officers will also be unable to defend themselves against the heavy criticism levelled at them in the DNA report. I predict that the court will accept the report's findings more-or-less in their entirety. And I predict that Knox and Sollecito will be acquitted by Hellmann's court in October or November. Let's see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.....


Spit-roasted eh ? - she is unlikely to be a willing participant.

Perhaps you could enlighten us on the details - If a rape fantasy regarding a dead women can be posted & later repeated and embellished then a live woman should be no challenge.
Or was that not a sexual reference - you were comparing her to a dead pig perhaps.

Referring to female scientists as being spit roasted strikes me as an emotional bias. I have not heard it used before without a certain emotional 'aspect' and certainly never in relation to a female specialist giving evidence in a rape murder trial.
Obviously we move in different circles.

ps You previously referred to Napoleoni the cop as 'the fragrant Monica' & Filomena R apparently perjured herself to cover up the fact she was a slob. There are probably other examples, these are just from recent memory.
Are there any Italian women involved in this case who aren't helpful to AK's defence you don't have seem to have a 'problem' with.

.
 
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Thanks. I am a firm believer in rational thought. Unfortunately, I don't find math entirely rational. Do you think it's worth me going over there without an equation up my sleeve? ℚ
I don't want to discourage y'all, but when it comes down to it, all these equations must have a basis of some sort of assumptions of the probability of something happening. I guess then it would boil down to arguing the the assumptions... and then even when it all calculated... even if it supports your theory, there is still some probably, even if remote, that your theory is wrong.
(forgive me - I haven't taken the time to understand what is going on at lesswrong.com)
 
That's not how now it looks to this observer which brings me to this post which I ignored at the time as simply more of the same. Perhaps a response is now appropriate.





Spit-roasted eh ? - she is unlikely to be a willing participant.

Perhaps you could enlighten us on the details - If a rape fantasy regarding a dead women can be posted & later repeated and embellished then a live woman should be no challenge.
Or was that not a sexual reference - you were comparing her to a dead pig perhaps.

Referring to female scientists as being spit roasted strikes me as an emotional bias. I have not heard it used before without a certain emotional 'aspect' and certainly never in relation to a female specialist giving evidence in a rape murder trial.
Obviously we move in different circles.

ps You previously referred to Napoleoni the cop as 'the fragrant Monica' & Filomena R apparently perjured herself to cover up the fact she was a slob. There are probably other examples, these are just from recent memory.
Are there any Italian women involved in this case who aren't helpful to AK's defence you don't have seem to have a 'problem' with.

.


Thank you once again for your contribution, which - once more - exclusively focusses on arguers rather than arguments. Do you have anything to say about the case being debated here, or do you prefer to stick to posts like this one?

I note that your latest ridiculous thesis is that I harbour some sort of sexist grudge against any Italian females involved in the prosecution side of this case. Your implication is not only offensive and unpleasant - it is also completely without foundation. You ought to be ashamed of yourself. Projection, perhaps....?

Perhaps if I had used the "f" word in relation to what I think is going to happen to Stefanoni in the DNA report debate, you might be more clear that I was employing a common metaphor (although I think you do know that, but choose to place a pejorative interpretation upon my choice of words). How about I substitute the metaphorical term for this: "I predict that Stefanoni will get comprehensively demolished in Hellmann's court at the end of the month"? Does that make things any clearer for you? How about if I say that I believe Mignini is going to be royally (sexual-act expletive verb participle deleted) as a result of this case, will you find it appropriate to accuse me of some sort of anti-male sexist bias as well? Your "argument" is as pathetic as it is weak.

Lastly, you completely misunderstand (deliberately?) the difference between employing emotion in argument and having an emotional attachment to an argumental position. The two things are completely different. I suggest that you are not here to argue/debate in good faith, and I've had enough of engaging with you now. Bye.

PS I just noticed your sly insertion suggesting (not for the first time) that I had engaged in some sort of "rape fantasy" when I was trying to build a coherent narrative of how and why Meredith Kercher actually died. That is a truly despicable and disgusting line of argument on your behalf. Horrible, nasty and undignified.
 
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I don't want to discourage y'all, but when it comes down to it, all these equations must have a basis of some sort of assumptions of the probability of something happening. I guess then it would boil down to arguing the the assumptions... and then even when it all calculated... even if it supports your theory, there is still some probably, even if remote, that your theory is wrong.
(forgive me - I haven't taken the time to understand what is going on at lesswrong.com)


I'd agree broadly. I think that things like Bayes' Theorem certainly have their uses, and can be gainfully employed to help quantify particular issues. But, as you point out, the equations are only ever as good as the quality of the assumptions which underpin them. And, in addition, there are many other contributory factors here which do not lend themselves to cut-and-dried conditional probability analysis.

In my opinion, these sorts of mathematically-based analyses can only really be valid in an environment where hard numerical data points are applicable and valid themselves. Examples would be things like lottery outcomes, or mortality predictions (where detailed and reliable actuarial tables are available). I don't think that they lend themselves very well to things like criminal trials (other than to make the observation that for a conviction, P(guilt) must equal 1: any P(guilt)<1 equals an acquittal).
 
Thanks to both of you for you efforts on this. I have been checking back daily to watch your progress. I would suggest a master document with all of your sections translated together that would also include the charts and tables. Perhaps when you are finished with the text, in any case.

We do have the conclusions as well as some of the sections translated and/or summarized but it will be nice to have this all together. thoughtful has a nice comment regarding FBN's post on the report:



I also agree that CV are attempting to invalidate the findings simply because it is clear to me that they believe those findings to be invalid. As far as some other protocol existing that Stefanoni must have followed, that reasoning flies in the face of common sense. There exist no standards or protocol that allows Stefi to do what thoughtful outlines above. As far as the collection and handling part of it, it is just silly to think that some standard exists that would excuse what was done in this case.

thoughtful summary:

3) You say that CV accuse Stefanoni of the "misattribution" of peaks, but you don't add the important facts that

a) she attributed certain peaks - quite a number of them - to stutter rather than human beings.

b) these were exactly every peak not belonging to Raffaele Sollecito (himself undoubtedly present in the Y-haplotype, and in greater quantity than other contributors)

c) she rejected those other peaks in spite of, and not according to, the ISFG guidelines. Indeed, the guidelines are not intended to be rigorously and rigidly followed, as she stated in court, but nor are they meant to be ignored in the case of every single peak except for that of the main contributor/suspect, unless another specific criterion or reason for doing so is supplied, which as far as we know it was not.

I cannot wait to read this part of the report, because there's something here I simply do not understand the reason for. If Raffaele's DNA is "undoubtedly" present in the Y-haplotype, why on earth would she have to cheat to put a profile together of him? Is it just to hide that there was another male's DNA on the clasp? To hide indications of contamination? Indubitably is a powerful concept, 100% you might even say, thus there should be no need to employ suspect-centered analysis to put together a strong profile.

So, those of you who read Italian and have read the report, is there a quote in which it is definitely stated that the DNA there is (very probably) Raffaele's, irrespective of how it got there?
 
There is currently a debate in progress at Less Wrong between me and Rolf Nelson, the most impressive believer in guilt I have ever encountered.

Added: although Rolf has just posted a comment questioning whether the discussion should continue. I'll have to consider what he says and then decide how to proceed.

I really don't understand the process over there. It seems your opponent just picks stuff that bothers him and then assigns arbitrary probabilities without real justification.
 
negative controls

Kaosium,

This is not a direct answer to your question, but IIRC the most commonly identified form of cheating in DNA forensics is to falsify the negative controls. This is done either because the negative control showed something, or possibly because of time constraints. The two are not mutually exclusive, since a positive result in the negative control would oblige one to rerun a large number of samples. That is another reason why the apparent lack of negative controls in this case is so bothersome.
 
Indeed. Conti and Vechiotti have reached conclusions based on the evidence in front of them, without any preconceptions. But the fact that some people seem to think that these two experts somehow "set out" to trash the work of Stefanoni and the "crack" forensics team also (in my view) provides an interesting window to the prevailing pro-guilt mindset. I don't think that many of them (pro-guilt people) can properly conceive of the concept of objectivity and evidence-led beliefs. The independent experts have examined the issue with open minds; the evidence has led them to the conclusion that the specific items they were asked to provide an opinion on (the knife and the bra clasp) are rotten and inadmissible for a whole host of reasons across multiple facets of their identification, collection, handling, transportation, storage, testing and interpretation.

And that leads on to a wider point: I believe that most people arguing here for acquittal (certainly including me) have no emotional bias towards either side. Rather, we have examined the evidence as it is available to us, and have (successfully, in my view) used logic, reason, additional research and deductive analysis to reach a provisional viewpoint. And that viewpoint is that there should be acquittals for both Knox and Sollecito in this case. As I and many others here have long stated, if the evidence had taken us towards guilt, we would have had no problem in arguing for conviction. And, of course, if additional evidence were somehow to come to light which was indicative of guilt and supportable as such, then I (and, I believe, many others here) would change our viewpoints readily and rapidly to a pro-guilt stance.

So, in this respect, I think that most of us here are similar to Conti and Vecchiotti (i.e. in the way in which we have evaluated the evidence objectively to reach an informed viewpoint). On the other hand, I strongly believe that most of those on the pro-guilt side of the argument have long since thrown away any attempt at objectivity or balance (if that was ever there in the first place): I think that their emotional attachments to their positions is now totally clouding their judgement. The "DNA report rebuttal" article on TJMK is just one clear example of this. One only need read the title of the article ("Analysis Suggests The Conti-Vecchiotti DNA Review Is Weak, Tendentious, Cites Non-Existent Standards"(!)) to see what's happening - and the article itself is a poster child for willful misinterpretation in order to support a prior conclusion. But that's sadly predictable.

The truth of the matter is this: Conti and Vecchiotti have produced a report which is essentially correct and accurate in every respect. The report's conclusions and methodology are completely supported by documented standards, procedures and protocols. The knife and bra clasp were indeed improperly identified, collected, handled, transported and stored, and Stefanoni's testing and interpretation methods were both improper and invalid. The court discussion at the end of the month will ultimately confirm all of this - of that I am virtually certain.

And there's really not much more to say right now. The pro-guilt crowd will continue to try to find reasons to discredit the report, and will continue to think (in their ignorant and/or confirmation-biased minds) that they've found marvellous and intellectually-rigorous ways to challenge the report's findings. They are wrong. But I guess they will have to wait until August and beyond to realise that. We rational sceptics are fortunate enough to know that already.

The pro-guilt side is looking at this as if the expert opinion is coming from the defense. Their latest argument is that the court already heard these arguments during the first trial. The scathing criticism obviously caries much more weight coming from court appointed independent experts. It just goes to show that some people can convince themselves of just about anything.
 
I cannot wait to read this part of the report, because there's something here I simply do not understand the reason for. If Raffaele's DNA is "undoubtedly" present in the Y-haplotype, why on earth would she have to cheat to put a profile together of him? Is it just to hide that there was another male's DNA on the clasp? To hide indications of contamination? Indubitably is a powerful concept, 100% you might even say, thus there should be no need to employ suspect-centered analysis to put together a strong profile.

So, those of you who read Italian and have read the report, is there a quote in which it is definitely stated that the DNA there is (very probably) Raffaele's, irrespective of how it got there?

thoughtful translation

This is thus a genetic profile derived from a mixture of unidentified biological substances (recall that no investigations were performed to test the hypothesis of exfoliation cells, so this statement has no scientific foundation) whose major component is the DNA of the victim and whose minor component is DNA coming from several individuals who are male (Y haplotype), one of these Y haplotypes corresponding to the Y haplotype of Raffaele Sollecito.

That is the strongest statement I have seen, I guess it depends how you interpret that passage.
 
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