Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Dan O. said:
I asked about this before but don't recall getting an answer. Has anyone attempted to determine the Luminol intensity from the original images? For that mater, are the original images even available of is this another case of the manipulated data being good enough for the defense?
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Dan O.,

I am not certain. However, the forensic paper on luminol by Barni et al. suggests that caution should be applied when trying to interpret luminol evidence in this way.
 
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stutter products in DNA typing

Page 126 of John Butler’s textbook Forensic DNA Typing has a summary of stutter:

“Primarily one unit smaller than corresponding main peak allele;
Typically less than 15% of corresponding allele peak height;
Quantity of stutter depends on locus as well as PCR conditions and polymerase used;
Propensity of stutter decreases with longer repeat units (pentanucleotide repeats<tetra<tri<dinucleotides;
Quantity of stutter greater for larger alleles within a locus;
Quantity of stutter is less if sequence of repeats is imperfect.”

John Butler (p. 125) wrote, “Mixture interpretation requires a good understanding of the behavior of stutter products in single source samples.” Based on Figure 6.3 (page 125) one can conclude that different loci give different amounts of stutter. “Polymerase” refers to the enzyme DNA polymerase, the chief player in the PCR process. Polymerases from different organisms have different kinetic properties.

The basis of stutter is that the primer and the template DNA strands do not always anneal perfectly in the replication process. It is far more likely that the bulge of one extra repeat unit will occur on the template strand than on the primer strand, and that is why the stutter peak almost always has one repeat unit less than the true allele. For example if the true allele has 15 repeats, the stutter peak almost always shows up at 14 repeats, not 16 repeats.
 
Kaosium said:
I couldn't find the part about Raffaele's diary, perhaps you were thinking of another section? I did however revert to my previous suspicion that perhaps Stefanoni, despite that quote, did indeed advance the hypothesis that the blood was mixed, because reviewing this section again has firmed up my recollection that Massei was clear that he thought the blood was only Meredith's. To wit:



Here he reiterates that mixed trace specimens make it impossible to determine the origin of the blood, and then points out that the unmixed specimens are all Meredith's--with the exception of the coagulated blood from Amanda's ear on the tap from days previous. He also notes that Amanda was not wounded and had been examined thoroughly:



I think the report makes it clear in the end that Massei believes the mixed traces were from Amanda washing off Meredith's blood, and she left behind skin cells in the process, but no blood.



I think when everything is put together the picture that emerges is that in fact Massei was definitely not convinced the mixed traces were in fact mixed blood, but that despite being forced to admit there was no way of telling scientifically, Stefanoni in court proposed the theory that the mixed DNA traces did in fact constitute 'evidence' that Amanda and Meredith's blood had mixed the night of the murder. There's just too many diverse accounts of people saying 'mixed blood' for me to assume they were all in error.

Our good friend The Machine thoughtfully collected some of them here and Ann Wise also noted that the prosecution had theorized the mixed DNA samples were in fact 'mixed blood' and the defense had even formulated arguments against it, which must have been convincing to Massei because he makes a strong argument in his motivations report that the mixed DNA was not in fact mixed blood.

The Machine appears to believe the prosecution may in fact argue again that the mixed DNA traces are in fact 'mixed blood,' however I would tend to doubt that possibility because Mignini--who I suspect would argue anything if it suggested a greater possibility of Amanda and Raffaele being guilty--isn't calling the shots. The new prosecutor, Costagliola, who appears to have muzzled Mignini, may not because last time they couldn't even convince Massei of this dubious proposition.

This is ominous for Biondo and Stefanoni. :p
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Since when did they muzzle Mignini? At the last hearing it was he or is it...it was him who read the letter written by hisself. errrrr Rudy who seemed to have trouble reading "his own" handwriting. Rudy also admitted to the judge that he did not understand all the big words in "his own" letter.

I just dont get why these mixed traces are important at all. People spit and bleed and scrub off skin cells in a bathroom. I think it would be unusal to not find mixed traces in the bathroom. In fact had the police done a proper crime scene investigation I bet the other bathroom was loaded with mixed traces of Filomena and Laura. eeeew gross.

One important mixed trace needs addressed in court. That is the one trace in Filomenas room. My explaination for this luminol blob is that it was spilled juice (which is sticky) that had dried up. Meanwhile buffons errrr scientific police walked around from room to room with dust mops errrr shoe covers on that transfered all sorts of DNA throught the different rooms. That sticky blob attracted and held a DNA trace that may have been AK. Hard to say really with such sloppy DNA procedures. At least thats what the independant experts have called this work.

Mignini is still going but his batteries are wearing down. I still dont understand why he is still in this appeal. Not only does the defense claim it is highly unusal for a prosecutor to remain the same in the appeal...they have never seen it. But the simple fact that this particular prosecutor is a convicted abuser of office and he still works for the court is insane to anyone from a developed country. Oh I suppose Iran might see the logic of it but really...........
 
For those wishing to review and search anything about this case there is a person who has every word of Perugia Shock including comments and they will gladly link you to it.

Also this genius pack rat has every word of sites like PMF if one wishes to study up in preparation for upcoming slander charges that the defendants will certainly need to file to cover the cost of pain and suffering and illegal detention and slander etc...

I will check with the file master to see how they wish to share these files.

BTW....got an update today from Sky news....now they realize they have made a grave error in the interpretation of AK statement in court. This after last weeks "we stand by our story". It seems they have each and every word correct now. No… we were all drunk...rather we have only ever been together in a court room....funny how they finally got it right. I wonder if a lawsuit is in the future against Sky news? Maybe Rupert will change his mind.
 
RandyN said:
BTW....got an update today from Sky news....now they realize they have made a grave error in the interpretation of AK statement in court. This after last weeks "we stand by our story". It seems they have each and every word correct now. No… we were all drunk...rather we have only ever been together in a court room....funny how they finally got it right. I wonder if a lawsuit is in the future against Sky news? Maybe Rupert will change his mind.
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RandyN,

What exactly did they say? Is this acknowledged publicly anywhere?
 
RandyN said:
Since when did they muzzle Mignini? At the last hearing it was he or is it...it was him who read the letter written by hisself. errrrr Rudy who seemed to have trouble reading "his own" handwriting. Rudy also admitted to the judge that he did not understand all the big words in "his own" letter.
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Regarding Mignini, I'm just guessing he was the one referred to recently in a reporter's account something to the effect of a 'someone forbidden to speak by the prosecution'--who was of course, speaking for the prosecution. I haven't seen him anywhere else lately, and after the debacles of the CNN interview and the Bob Graham 'chat' it would seem like Costagliola might want to stick a stinky sock in his mouth.

I've seen the handwriting comparisons and I'm dubious myself, if the same hand wrote both those pieces I can't see how handwriting analysis could ever be of any use, but did he actually admit to the judge he didn't understand the big words? I've not seen anything authoritative about it, and it has the flavor of a mistaken account. Also, usually when Machiavelli gets on his high horse about something minor like this, he's right. No one has proved him wrong yet have they? He's at IIP loudly proclaiming it as an absolute fact, and making fun of us for believing it. The ones like this where he's usually wrong are the ones where there's guilt for Amanda implied and there's a (oftentimes sophistic or out of context) way to interpret it in that regard, and even then he's usually not as adamant about it.

RandyN said:
I just dont get why these mixed traces are important at all. People spit and bleed and scrub off skin cells in a bathroom. I think it would be unusual to not find mixed traces in the bathroom. In fact had the police done a proper crime scene investigation I bet the other bathroom was loaded with mixed traces of Filomena and Laura. eeeew gross.
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Randy, the only reason the mixed traces are important is they will probably be the 'best' physical 'evidence' of murder during the trial! The luminol footprints are too easy to discredit with the negative TMB and DNA tests, the bra-clasp and knife are sinking to the bed of the Tiber as we speak, the bathmat stain looks more like Rudy's to most people, leaving little more than the mixed traces in the bathroom that can actually be made to sound all that damning. Even though I agree with you in every respect. I think Halides1 once put it something to the effect of: 'the least surprising element of this case was they found Amanda's DNA in Amanda's sink.' :D

However, the more I think about it the more I suspect they may try to say that it had to be 'mixed blood' even though not even Massei bought it. Remember, this is a system where a sitting judge can go from 'possible' to 'probable' in two short words with no evidence or argument supporting it ever advanced. It only being 'possible' in this case because it wasn't proven 'impossible.'

RandyN said:
One important mixed trace needs addressed in court. That is the one trace in Filomenas room. My explaination for this luminol blob is that it was spilled juice (which is sticky) that had dried up. Meanwhile buffons errrr scientific police walked around from room to room with dust mops errrr shoe covers on that transfered all sorts of DNA throught the different rooms. That sticky blob attracted and held a DNA trace that may have been AK. Hard to say really with such sloppy DNA procedures. At least thats what the independant experts have called this work.
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I find that curious myself, but don't spend much time on it as the two of them lived there together, it was inevitable their DNA would mix at some point if they looked hard enough. At least they didn't find that in the murder room, though I bet they thought it a consolation they found it in the break-in room--though well away from the window, so how does it 'prove' anything? It doesn't. It just means at some point traces of both Meredith and Amanda got mixed together in the weeks they lived together, it sure as hell doesn't even suggest Amanda murdered her, leaving nothing in the murder room but somehow leaving non-blood traces in Filomena's room. That's just kinda silly! I like your explanation, though the one I liked best was Charlie Wilkes' (I think) suggestion that's simply where some clown in the initial sweep dropped some samples, then six weeks later they come back and 'find' that 'evidence' of Amanda and Meredith's traces mixed.


RandyN said:
Mignini is still going but his batteries are wearing down. I still dont understand why he is still in this appeal. Not only does the defense claim it is highly unusal for a prosecutor to remain the same in the appeal...they have never seen it. But the simple fact that this particular prosecutor is a convicted abuser of office and he still works for the court is insane to anyone from a developed country. Oh I suppose Iran might see the logic of it but really...........
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He's no more 'convicted' at this point than Amanda and Raffaele, though I'm truly hopeful the Supreme Court confirms his suspended sentence, that way when he gets his charges for crimes committed in this case then his sentence won't be suspended and may even be compounded because he didn't learn his lesson. However I also think there's some value to the concept of someone being assumed innocent until proven guilty, and in the Italian System that means it has to be confirmed all the way through the Supreme Court.

It's pretty damn awful that Raffaele and Amanda don't get the benefit of that though and have had to sit this out in jail simply because Mignini pulled something out of his posterior and pretended they were actually physically present in the murder room with absolutely nothing to even suggest that. The more I think about it, the more I become convinced Billy Ryan is right and one of the unknown villains of this tragedy is Matteini for allowing that travesty--amongst other things. Had Mignini just gone with what mistaken and coincidental evidence he actually had at that point that they were involved, but didn't participate in the killing, they would have at least gotten house arrest as many do in Italy.

As for why Mignini is allowed to be on this case, I personally have suspected for a long time it's because Costagliola doesn't want much of anything to do with it, and he'd rather Mignini clean up his own mess while he goes through the motions because it's his job. Others think it means Mignini is some sort of master manipulator who gets whatever he wants. I don't think the progression of the appeal suggests the latter was an accurate assessment, but it isn't over yet either...
 
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RandyN said:
For those wishing to review and search anything about this case there is a person who has every word of Perugia Shock including comments and they will gladly link you to it.
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These were available from Google for a couple of months or more after the site went off line.


Also this genius pack rat has every word of sites like PMF if one wishes to study up in preparation for upcoming slander charges that the defendants will certainly need to file to cover the cost of pain and suffering and illegal detention and slander etc...
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A copy is good enough for review. But if it's evidence you want, check out the time stamp services.
 
Kaosium said:
Regarding Mignini, I'm just guessing he was the one referred to recently in a reporter's account something to the effect of a 'someone forbidden to speak by the prosecution'--who was of course, speaking for the prosecution. I haven't seen him anywhere else lately, and after the debacles of the CNN interview and the Bob Graham 'chat' it would seem like Costagliola might want to stick a stinky sock in his mouth.
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I agree. I think Mignini is by far the most likely candidate for that NYT quote. And I also think that he might well have been given a stiff reprimand and ordered to stop talking to the media in the aftermath of his recent self-serving pronouncements.


I've seen the handwriting comparisons and I'm dubious myself, if the same hand wrote both those pieces I can't see how handwriting analysis could ever be of any use, but did he actually admit to the judge he didn't understand the big words? I've not seen anything authoritative about it, and it has the flavor of a mistaken account. Also, usually when Machiavelli gets on his high horse about something minor like this, he's right. No one has proved him wrong yet have they? He's at IIP loudly proclaiming it as an absolute fact, and making fun of us for believing it. The ones like this where he's usually wrong are the ones where there's guilt for Amanda implied and there's a (oftentimes sophistic or out of context) way to interpret it in that regard, and even then he's usually not as adamant about it.
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I tend towards the opinion that the two samples of handwriting are not written in the same hand. But I think that's actually of little consequence either way, as Guede agrees that the contents of the letter tally with his personal opinion. And in any case, the letter (in my view) has very little value to the prosecution, since Guede's version of the crime is demonstrably bogus and mendacious in many other areas.


Randy, the only reason the mixed traces are important is they will probably be the 'best' physical 'evidence' of murder during the trial! The luminol footprints are too easy to discredit with the negative TMB and DNA tests, the bra-clasp and knife are sinking to the bed of the Tiber as we speak, the bathmat stain looks more like Rudy's to most people, leaving little more than the mixed traces in the bathroom that can actually be made to sound all that damning. Even though I agree with you in every respect. I think Halides1 once put it something to the effect of: 'the least surprising element of this case was they found Amanda's DNA in Amanda's sink.' :D

However, the more I think about it the more I suspect they may try to say that it had to be 'mixed blood' even though not even Massei bought it. Remember, this is a system where a sitting judge can go from 'possible' to 'probable' in two short words with no evidence or argument supporting it ever advanced. It only being 'possible' in this case because it wasn't proven 'impossible.'
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As I've said before, I think that the two areas that the defence has to focus on now are the mixed DNA in the sink/bidet, and the dilute partial print on the bathmat. As I've also said, I think that both these issues can be successfully argued by the defence, but I think it's important that they realise the critical importance of rebuttal here. After all, if Hellmann's court mirrors Massei's judgements in these areas, and accepts that a) the mixed DNA was deposited at the same time (regardless of whether Knox's DNA is from her blood or not) and/or b) the partial footprint is Sollecito's, then I think guilty verdicts will ensue. But I confidently predict that the defence will successfully rebut both these areas of evidence, in ways that we've discussed here before.


I find that curious myself, but don't spend much time on it as the two of them lived there together, it was inevitable their DNA would mix at some point if they looked hard enough. At least they didn't find that in the murder room, though I bet they thought it a consolation they found it in the break-in room--though well away from the window, so how does it 'prove' anything? It doesn't. It just means at some point traces of both Meredith and Amanda got mixed together in the weeks they lived together, it sure as hell doesn't even suggest Amanda murdered her, leaving nothing in the murder room but somehow leaving non-blood traces in Filomena's room. That's just kinda silly! I like your explanation, though the one I liked best was Charlie Wilkes' (I think) suggestion that's simply where some clown in the initial sweep dropped some samples, then six weeks later they come back and 'find' that 'evidence' of Amanda and Meredith's traces mixed.
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I think this one can be put down to malpractice by the forensics team. And following the DNA report's conclusions, I don't think that Hellmann's court will have much difficulty in buying that interpretation.....


He's no more 'convicted' at this point than Amanda and Raffaele, though I'm truly hopeful the Supreme Court confirms his suspended sentence, that way when he gets his charges for crimes committed in this case then his sentence won't be suspended and may even be compounded because he didn't learn his lesson. However I also think there's some value to the concept of someone being assumed innocent until proven guilty, and in the Italian System that means it has to be confirmed all the way through the Supreme Court.

It's pretty damn awful that Raffaele and Amanda don't get the benefit of that though and have had to sit this out in jail simply because Mignini pulled something out of his posterior and pretended they were actually physically present in the murder room with absolutely nothing to even suggest that. The more I think about it, the more I become convinced Billy Ryan is right and one of the unknown villains of this tragedy is Matteini for allowing that travesty--amongst other things. Had Mignini just gone with what mistaken and coincidental evidence he actually had at that point that they were involved, but didn't participate in the killing, they would have at least gotten house arrest as many do in Italy.
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I actually don't think Matteini's to blame for Knox's/Sollecito's incarceration between November 2007 and the first trial. I think that the prosecutors hyperbolised (to the extent of exaggerating and even inventing evidence against the pair) in order to strengthen their case in front of Matteini, and that the defence were in no position to counter-argue at that point. And in any case, I think that the nature of the crime would usually result in custodial remand in any case. So if there's any blame to be attached here, I'd look no further than Mignini, Comodi and Napoleoni.



As for why Mignini is allowed to be on this case, I personally have suspected for a long time it's because Costagliola doesn't want much of anything to do with it, and he'd rather Mignini clean up his own mess while he goes through the motions because it's his job. Others think it means Mignini is some sort of master manipulator who gets whatever he wants. I don't think the progression of the appeal suggests the latter was an accurate assessment, but it isn't over yet either...
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I think Mignini probably just inserted himself into the appeals process through force of personality. But I also think you may have a point that Costagliola might be perfectly happy to use Mignini as a buffer if (and now when) it all goes wrong for the prosecutors in the appeal. My opinion of Mignini is that he is a control freak and a bully, who now knows that he's caught in a spiral - largely of his own doing - that will probably culminate in the premature curtailment of his career in the judiciary. I therefore think that he's becoming a loose cannon, and that he has the potential to damage many others on his way down. I think that quite a few people around Perugia might be more than a little afraid of being hit by the flailing desperation of a drowning man.


PS: I see that "DSK Rape File" has now morphed into "Pepperdine Wrongful-Termination File". Meredith would be so proud of what these people are doing "in her name".......
 
I wonder what your predictions are about the upcoming hearing.
Is divine Patrizia going to show up in court? If so, what her line of defense is going to be? Will she invent something new or just rehash everything from the first trial?

In the recent "interview" Mignini gave some hints of putting the blame on her. I think it's quite likely that she'll strike first, refusing to cover for him and his failed case any longer and simply send a medical leave notification to the court.
 
Katody Matrass said:
I wonder what your predictions are about the upcoming hearing.
Is divine Patrizia going to show up in court? If so, what her line of defense is going to be? Will she invent something new or just rehash everything from the first trial?

In the recent "interview" Mignini gave some hints of putting the blame on her. I think it's quite likely that she'll strike first, refusing to cover for him and his failed case any longer and simply send a medical leave notification to the court.
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I too am intrigued as to whether she'll actually make a personal appearance at the end of the month. I don't think she can make any sort of cogent defence for her numerous huge mistakes, nor for her stubborn unwillingness to provide the source data on numerous occasions (at least now we know why she was so unwilling to do so....). So for me it's hard to predict whether she's stubborn/egotistical enough to go down fighting, or whether she'll quietly accept her many failings in this case. And for either of these possibilities, it's equally hard to predict whether she'll choose to show up in person in Hellmann's court, or whether she'll "find" a reason not to be there.

It could all get somewhat entertaining (notwithstanding the underlying seriousness of the issues at stake).
 
LondonJohn said:
Here's a very interesting site dedicated to the Knox/Sollecito trial. I heartily recommend that people read these most recent entries: they provide a comprehensive illustration of the various...... points of view...... on this case.

http://perugiamurderfile.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=324&start=8750
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Wow. I thought that one was long dead. Rose and Kaosium approached, with a few polite and calm postings and suddenly the carcass shook with violent paroxysms :) They all popped up, and seemed very tense and agitated. Is it because they must've seen the writing on the wall by now and know how ominous it is for their case? It must be painful when their labor of love, with many years invested, crumbles apart, exposing them as foolish hate-mongers. The ever growing cognitive dissonance and the rationalizations it demands must be a taxing burden on their mental health. I can't imagine what they will be going trough when the verdict finally comes. But I admit this socio-psychological phenomenon is morbidly fascinating.
 
Yes, that was quite amusing to see how a website dedicated to discussion of the case can only stand to hear someone with a different point of view once a week!

(I also noticed that the person who called Rose a c-word was admonished for swearing but not for wishing death on another poster. Nice forum they have there.)
 
LondonJohn said:
Here's a very interesting site dedicated to the Knox/Sollecito trial. I heartily recommend that people read these most recent entries: they provide a comprehensive illustration of the various...... points of view...... on this case.

http://perugiamurderfile.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=324&start=8750
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Perhaps you are talking about their analysis of the number of folks who came to the Amanda benefit concert?
Or maybe you are talking about the exchange with their outside guest Rose with a little Chris and Koasium on the side.
This I was fascinated to read. Seems pmf net is a little more open to challenge, but not open to concession -- as they say, their differences are too wide.
The conversation seemed to devolve a bit into dragging up an old comment which offended some members (re: lack of sympathy toward mr kercher).
The only thing that came up that enhanced my understanding of the facts and their opinions was the unexplained delayed arrival of Raffaele's father's SMS until the morning - which they explain as evidence his phone was off all night (though which could simply be a case of bad reception or a delay in transit).
They ultimately called Rose a Polyanna (viewing things optimistically), but really this seems to me to come down to her priority of erroring on the side of innocence (ie. innocent until proven guilty).
The lies and the totality of the evidence still seems to be the position held on their end.
Anyway - kudos to them for tolerating a little feather ruffling.
 
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ForTruth said:
The only thing that came up that enhanced my understanding of the facts and their opinions was the unexplained delayed arrival of Raffaele's father's SMS until the morning - which they explain as evidence his phone was off all night (though which could simply be a case of bad reception or a delay in transit).
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The delayed SMS reception just happens to coincide precisely with when Raffaele finished using his computer according to the log file data. Either Raffaele finished using the computer and moved the phone to where it got better reception or perhaps something else changed the reception pattern and allowed the phone to connect to a cell. The phone would pick up the SMS and ring prompting Raffaele to pick it up and thus noting the time of the SMS is past 11pm he decides it is time to go to bed.
 
Cut me some slack, Jack

Matthew Best said:
Yes, that was quite amusing to see how a website dedicated to discussion of the case can only stand to hear someone with a different point of view once a week!

(I also noticed that the person who called Rose a c-word was admonished for swearing but not for wishing death on another poster. Nice forum they have there.)
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Matthew Best,

I wonder whether pilot padron flew this Airplane. We should cut them some slack; it has been a bad month for them. First the Conti/Vecchiotti report dismissed the knife and the bra clasp. Then a noted forensic chemist knocked the pins from beneath the claim that positive luminol results = the presence of blood.

BTW, I would be tempted to criticize those who attacked Conti and Vecchiotti on the basis of their using library cards and Google, but I agree with Kevin Lowe and others who think that the Google/library card approach was unfairly maligned earlier in online discussions of the case. On the other hand, the fact that all of the attacks occurred after the report was released suggests that the attacks were an example of confirmation bias. MOO.
 
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