Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Chris_Halkides]

Guede and his DNA

Maybe halides1 can explain why it would still be accepted based on the amount of DNA other reasons?
SNIP
The palm print, admitted shoe prints and admitted presense will probably hold his conviction in place, I hope.

Draca,

I am generally hesitant to make arguments based on the amount of DNA present. However, one aspect that makes the DNA evidence against Guede stronger than against Knox or Sollecito is that he had no reason ever to be in the cottage. One final point: the putative semen stain really ought to be tested.

 

[Kaosium]

I agree also. I think Chris's analysis is spot on.

The bedroom crime scene had been completely tossed and corrupted by the time they went back on Dec 18th. I'm not sure how the DNA found on the blue jacket and purse can stand. Both items had been moved from where originally taped. The blue jacket had been tossed into the laundry hamper of all things! If contamination is possible for the bra clasp, wouldn't it be the same for the other items?

Maybe halides1 can explain why it would still be accepted based on the amount of DNA other reasons?

The DNA of Guede found on the vagina swab was tested by Stefanoni. How can we trust any of her work. If she was incompetent and shady in regards to the knife, bra clasp and luminol prints wouldn't she have done the same poor quality work on the vaginal swab?

The palm print, admitted shoe prints and admitted presence will probably hold his conviction in place, I hope.

The independent analysts also approved her work on the DNA of Amanda on the handle of the knife, so they did not condemn her work unequivocally. The bra-clasp and knife were inherently dubious items for various reasons, one being the peaks for Meredith on the clasp were on the order of seven times the height of Raffaele's if I recall correctly. That's suggestive of a secondary transfer of some sort or contamination, not proof but an indicator. Then you see the 'collection' video and it certainly makes it a plausible possibility--to say the least. The knife was always ridiculous, take a look (comparison with 100 pg sample here) at what (page 16) you are up against trying to attain a profile from a 10 (or less!) picogram sample with a 28 cycle Identifiler kit, as per Massei.

If an engineer tells me they invented a perpetual motion device I would be inherently skeptical, however that does not preclude the possibility they are perfectly capable of designing an internal combustion engine.

 

[snook1]

Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito are opening their own school in Perugia, Italy. They will show you how to float around tiny rooms. They will tell you how to float in and float out of the rooms in different ways.

I still can't believe they were convicted at the first trial. Just re-watched the first media segments about the conviction. It was ridiculous.

Hopefully, the appeal will set them free.

 

[Draca]

Rolfe, I would have thought the time of death would warrant inclusion in the appeal long before a handful of utterly unconvincing prison inmates contradicting each other at every pass with their testimony.

The convict testimony court dates seem like they were mostly a waste of time. Precious time wasted in this long appeal, short on action.

I really wish Hellmann had chosen to look instead at the semen stain, ToD, computers, bathmat footprint, luminol prints and Quintavalle.

 

[Draca]

Draca,

I am generally hesitant to make arguments based on the amount of DNA present. However, one aspect that makes the DNA evidence against Guede stronger than against Knox or Sollecito is that he had no reason ever to be in the cottage. One final point: the putative semen stain really ought to be tested.

The independent analysts also approved her work on the DNA of Amanda on the handle of the knife, so they did not condemn her work unequivocally. The bra-clasp and knife were inherently dubious items for various reasons, one being the peaks for Meredith on the clasp were on the order of seven times the height of Raffaele's if I recall correctly. That's suggestive of a secondary transfer of some sort or contamination, not proof but an indicator. Then you see the 'collection' video and it certainly makes it a plausible possibility--to say the least. The knife was always ridiculous, take a look (comparison with 100 pg sample here) at what (page 16) you are up against trying to attain a profile from a 10 (or less!) picogram sample with a 28 cycle Identifiler kit, as per Massei.

If an engineer tells me they invented a perpetual motion device I would be inherently skeptical, however that does not preclude the possibility they are perfectly capable of designing an internal combustion engine.

Great points, BOTH of you!

halides1 is right that Rudy Guede's DNA should not have been in the cottage at all. If anything they will review Stefanoni's work. As Kaosium said, they confirmed her work showing Amanda's DNA on the knife handle, so all of Stefanoni's work is not automatically dismissed. It would depend on another DNA review to determine if her work on Rudy Guede's DNA was correct. With the other evidence against him another review may not even be approved. And YES, Hellmann should have the semen stain tested!


BTW - I finally figured out how to use the multi-quote feature! yay. I still don't know how people do a quote inside another quote.

 

[LondonJohn]

Are you also analyzing the effect on the DNA evidence attributed to Rudy or was his stuff perfectly done?

I posted something about this a couple of days ago. I think it's entirely possible that some of the DNA evidence against Guede may not be reliable. But my view was then (and is now) that there is other non-DNA evidence that in my opinion would convict him in and of itself. The two main pieces that I'm thinking of are a) Guede's hand print in Meredith's blood on her pillowcase in her room (which would require a serious conspiracy/incompetence to be unreliable evidence); and b) Guede's behaviour immediately after the murder (going clubbing without seemingly a care in the world, and fleeing to Germany within two days).

So I think that Guede will have trouble seeking leave to appeal his conviction - I think that judges would look at the other evidence and decide that his conviction is safe whether or not certain other aspects of the forensic evidence in this case are suspect.

 

[LondonJohn]

Here are some links to the two letters:

http://www.tgcom.mediaset.it/cronaca/articoli/articolo476174.shtml

Guede's "German Diary":
http://truejustice.org/ee/documents/perugia/RudysPrisonDiary.pdf


I agree that the handwriting doesn't match. Is there a reason the defense wouldn't point this out?

I think the defence were caught short by seeing the letter for the first time in the courtroom last Monday. But if I were them, I'd be giving both documents to a forensic document examiner pretty sharpish. It's possible that Guede had some sort of handwriting lessons in prison in between the two letters, but to my eyes there are multiple differences between the two samples.

Regardless of that, however, the letter doesn't do the defence any harm, whether it was written by Guede or not. After all, his "truth" in that letter is demonstrably phony in many respects - so his accusatiobn of Knox and Sollecito in it holds very little weight. But of course if it could be shown that somebody else wrote a letter that the prosecution held up as Rudy's own writing, it would reflect badly on the prosecution's integrity.

 

[souldonut]

No, the handwriting definitely doesn't match. I'm also curious why the defense didn't bring this up. Perhaps they have their suspicions but no proof yet as to whose handwriting it actually is.

Fyi, I decided to email frank about this. He agreed that the handwriting samples look different, but suggested that rudy might have used a prison scribe to prepare the letter. It does seem at least possible to me. But given the use of words that rudy didn't know, it still seems unlikely that he dictated the letter himself, and someone helped him write this personal letter. I still would love to see a sample of mignini's handwriting, to rule out the possibility that he, indeed, served as rudy's scribe.

All that really matters is that hellmann is suspicious, and I think that was demonstrated. (?)

=sd=

 

[LondonJohn]

Yes, there likely will be an appeal.

I would tend to disagree (as I wrote above). I think that the weight of other incriminating evidence against Guede means that any possible issues regarding DNA evidence would be held as insufficient to force a review of his conviction. In other words, I don't think he'll be granted a post-conviction appeal. I might be wrong though.

 

[Kestrel]

Does anyone know if any handwriting samples exist from Mignini by chance?

Amanda's 5:45 am statement was handwritten by Mignini. Perhaps someone has an image of that document.

 

[LondonJohn]

The convict testimony court dates seem like they were mostly a waste of time. Precious time wasted in this long appeal, short on action.

I really wish Hellmann had chosen to look instead at the semen stain, ToD, computers, bathmat footprint, luminol prints and Quintavalle.

I think Hellmann had a virtual obligation to examine the claims of the inmates: if either claim had been reliably verified (always unlikely, but that needed to be tested), then they would almost certainly have resulted in acquittals all by themselves. So the potential significance of the inmates' claims outweighed the likelihood of their veracity.

And in any case, it's still uncertain as to whether Hellmann will allow additional evidence/testimony in the areas you mentioned. He's stated publicly that he was reserving the right to allow other evidence/testimony pending the outcome of the independent DNA report: well, that outcome won't actually be known until after the court discussions at the end of the month.

It's therefore perfectly possible (indeed, I might say probable) that Hellmann will announce other new evidence/testimony either some time this month, or at the conclusion of the DNA report discussion. If the latter, then the new evidence/testimony won't make it to court until after the Summer recess (early September). This would then probably push the verdict back into November.

 

[pipelineaudio]

It's a low blow for anyone to impugn the motives of Miss Kercher's parent's. Their beliefs and actions are typical of those seen from other bereaved loved ones who've suffered similar tragedies.

Its NEVER ok to imprison people unjustly.

It might have been somewhat excusable around the time of the first trial for some of Kercher's actions, and we can all grieve for him

At this point in the game however, to have himself a representative who is COMMITTED to keeping two people unjustly imprisoned, and to, and here's the important part, keep the truth about the crimes against his own daughter secret?

No, he's lost the sympathy defense for his immoral actions

 

[LondonJohn]

Great points, BOTH of you!

halides1 is right that Rudy Guede's DNA should not have been in the cottage at all. If anything they will review Stefanoni's work. As Kaosium said, they confirmed her work showing Amanda's DNA on the knife handle, so all of Stefanoni's work is not automatically dismissed. It would depend on another DNA review to determine if her work on Rudy Guede's DNA was correct. With the other evidence against him another review may not even be approved. And YES, Hellmann should have the semen stain tested!


BTW - I finally figured out how to use the multi-quote feature! yay. I still don't know how people do a quote inside another quote.

But if Guede's defence were claiming contamination, then his claim of never having been in the girls' cottage before would be of marginal relevance (other than if contamination occurred within the cottage). Of more relevance is whether any of Guede's DNA was floating around at the lab. I suspect that the forensics team had reference samples from Guede at the time when they were testing the December 2007 evidence, so contamination could have come via that route.

But anyhow, by far the single strongest piece of forensic evidence against Guede was his hand print in Meredith's blood next to her body. This is incredibly hard to explain away as non-incriminating under any circumstances: given when it was found and photographed (Guede wasn't even in the country), there's practically no way that this print could be the result of either grotesque incompetence or a grotesque framing. This hand print - in the victim's blood, next to the victim's body - is (in my opinion) Guede's smoking gun.

 

[ForTruth]

Amanda's 5:45 am statement was handwritten by Mignini. Perhaps someone has an image of that document.

Maybe I am confused about some detail I am unaware of that you intended - but the 5:45AM statement was handwritten by Amanda.
And the 1:45 statement was typed by the police and/or prosecution. So neither would provide a Mignini handwriting sample as far as I know...

replace my dots... I am still too newby here to post links...
see perugiamurderfileDOTnet/gallery/image_pageDOTphp?album_id=21&image_id=2296

 

[LondonJohn]

Maybe I am confused about some detail I am unaware of that you intended - but the 5:45AM statement was handwritten by Amanda.
And the 1:45 statement was typed by the police and/or prosecution. So neither would provide a Mignini handwriting sample as far as I know...

replace my dots... I am still too newby here to post links...
see perugiamurderfileDOTnet/gallery/image_pageDOTphp?album_id=21&image_id=2296

I thought that Knox only hand-wrote the "memoriale" statement later on the 6th. I thought that the 1.45am statement was definitely typed and signed, but that the 5.45am statement was hand-written by Mignini.

I could be totally wrong though - this is not an area in which I'm exceptionally well-versed (i.e. the area of how and by whom the various statements were written/typed).

 

[Danceme]

But anyhow, by far the single strongest piece of forensic evidence against Guede was his hand print in Meredith's blood next to her body. This is incredibly hard to explain away as non-incriminating under any circumstances: given when it was found and photographed (Guede wasn't even in the country), there's practically no way that this print could be the result of either grotesque incompetence or a grotesque framing. This hand print - in the victim's blood, next to the victim's body - is (in my opinion) Guede's smoking gun.

But Guede did explain it away presumably when he said he tried to help Meredith by fetching towels to staunch the flow of blood. In this scenario he had a very high probability of getting blood on his hands and leaning onto the pillow as he tried to help her would explain the palm print.

Not that I believe it or anything, just saying it's an explanation.

 

[LondonJohn]

But Guede did explain it away presumably when he said he tried to help Meredith by fetching towels to staunch the flow of blood. In this scenario he had a very high probability of getting blood on his hands and leaning onto the pillow as he tried to help her would explain the palm print.

Not that I believe it or anything, just saying it's an explanation.

Agreed. But that's why I mentioned the evidence about his going clubbing within hours of the murder, and disappearing across Europe within 48 hours. The two pieces put together can only lead a reasonable person to conclude that a) Guede was there at the time of the murder, and b) Guede wasn't trying to help Meredith - his behaviour after the event is completely and utterly at odds with that claim (as is his failure to contact any emergency services at any time - even anonymously via a payphone).

 

[Fine]

I thought that Knox only hand-wrote the "memoriale" statement later on the 6th. I thought that the 1.45am statement was definitely typed and signed, but that the 5.45am statement was hand-written by Mignini.

I could be totally wrong though - this is not an area in which I'm exceptionally well-versed (i.e. the area of how and by whom the various statements were written/typed).

_________________

NONE of the three statements from Amanda on November 6th, 2007, was hand-written by Mignini. The 1:45 am statement and the 5:45 am statement were written by a typewriter or a computer. The later statement that day from Amanda---her "Memorandum"---was handwritten by Amanda.

///

 

[LondonJohn]

I see Machine/Harry Rag is up to his/her old tricks again, with a heavy-handed "open letter" to the Rolling Stone journo who wrote the piece on the case - coupled with an exhortation to pro-guilt idiots to flood him and his editor with emails.

PS: Just out of interest, what's the relationship between Machine/HR and PQ? IS there a 1-to-1 mapping, or are they just...ahem...close friends?

 

[LondonJohn]

_________________

NONE of the three statements from Amanda on November 6th, 2007, was hand-written by Mignini. The 1:45 am statement and the 5:45 am statement were written by a typewriter or a computer. The later statement that day from Amanda---her "Memorandum"---was handwritten by Amanda.

///

Thanks. I was wrong then (partially)