The Stimulus Seems to have failed

You mean that's one of many things he does.

So you were aware the major change to CPI occurred under Reagan but chose to ignore those in favor of the changes made under Clinton. That pretty much proves my point for me :D
 
Not sure if anyone else noticed this, but going by the shadowstats numbers, George Dubya spent the vast majority of his 8 years in office making the US poorer.
 
Not sure if anyone else noticed this, but going by the shadowstats numbers, George Dubya spent the vast majority of his 8 years in office making the US poorer.

No. The GDP Annual Growth - Official vs SGS chart at this link:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts

proves you wrong. Notice that the % difference between the official (BEA) and SGS Alternate annual GDP growth rate increase steadily from zero in 1983 (the year BEA changed it's calculation of inflation) to about 4% in 2000 (when Bush took office). And then it remained at about 4% until 2006. So Bush clearly helped fix things during that time. It only started growing again in 2006 when democrats took over Congress (as a result of democrat spending policies and Bush not drawing the hard line against them. It grew to about 5% by late 2007 (when the recession began). Then the delta between the two closed, reaching a minimum of about 2% in 2009 (but I believe this is only an artifact of the recession, since inflation went to zero or even negative at that time regardless of which methodology was being used to compute inflation). But since the recession has *ended*, with democrats clearly in control, the gap has widened again and currently stands at 5%.

So the chart shows that Bush actually helped the situation and democrats have not. :D
 
So the chart shows that Bush actually helped the situation and democrats have not. grinning face

The graph shows that if you try to use the numbers from shadowstats to smear obama as creating a worse economy than the standard GDP measure shows, then you also have to admit that throughout almost all of Bush's time in office, US GDP growth was negative.
 
To whom? mhaze is as much a partisan hack as BaC is... Everyone else pretty much already knows BaC is a partisan hack...a....
Fixed it for you for your way of thinking. You've got a real problem if you can't even distinguish between various seriously different styles of conservatives and liberals. That's anti-thinking, dude.

Not sure if anyone else noticed this, but going by the shadowstats numbers, George Dubya spent the vast majority of his 8 years in office making the US poorer.
Since I'm not a believer in any given POTUS and/or administration being a CONTROLLER of the economy, with magical, immediate effects from his throne, I'll stay out of this argument. That is a socialist progressive view of economics. And it's not what Keynes thought.

This strawman construct of a single leader or party with some kind of hand on a big economy level is the real wacko fringe theory of the year. Effects of government policy are diffuse, delayed, inconsistent, and often counterproductive.

Let's get real, please.
 
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Your woo site like to present methodologies that economists have rejected as flawed.

The economists didn't reject it, the GOVERNMENT rejected it becasue it was telling the truth about the effects of gov't policies. From inflation to unemployment to GDP, starting in the late 80s early 90s new methodologies were put in place that boosted GDP claims and attempted to minimize inflation and UE numbers.

The most recent example of new gov't woo was the jobs numbers for the stimulus plan.

Remember the 3+ million promised "shovel ready" jobs it was supposed to create?

Guess what, not only did it not even come close, but it only appeared to be making progress by outright LIES and accounting tricks:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124451592762396883.html

http://www.mlive.com/jobs/index.ssf/2009/11/newspaper_report_finds_stimulus_spending.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/05/us/05stimulus.html

http://washingtonexaminer.com/maps/Bogus-jobs-created-or-saved-by-the-Stimulus.html

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs...ercent-stimulus-jobs-doubtful-or-imaginary-up

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/lies-damned-lies-and-stimulus-jobs
 
Shadowstats.com is in fact the credible, detailed and exhaustive counter reference to US government claims. There is no woo here. In fact there is no woo on the government side, either....just propaganda in self interest.

Anyone who cannot see the need for critical analysis and alternative historical data series in economics and who believes without question government data pretty much defines woo.
 
Nice try. Sorry, but Glenn Kessler, the author of that blog article, is a veteran journalist on the National Desk at the Washington Post. Wickipedia says this about his career:



He's written many, many, many articles over the years: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/articles/glenn+kessler/ . He currently writes the Fact Checker articles for the Washington Post (so one would think he'd have some credibility when it comes to facts). He's allowed to post on the Washington Post blog with their permission.

So for you to simply dismiss his article says more about you and your fear of the truth than anything else. :D

Appeal to authority -- Check
 
The graph shows that if you try to use the numbers from shadowstats to smear obama as creating a worse economy than the standard GDP measure shows, then you also have to admit that throughout almost all of Bush's time in office, US GDP growth was negative.

Looking at the chart, one can see that from late 2000 to early 2004 the SGS' GDP growth was indeed negative. But then there were some extenuating circumstances during that period. Bush inherited a recession that began at the end of Clinton's term. We then suffered the 9/11 attack and the disruption to the economy that caused. But unlike Obama, Bush did the right thing and soon the economy recovered so that from about 2004 to 2006, the SGS growth rate was positive or only slightly negative. After democrats took over congress and started spending, spending, spending is when the SGS GDP growth rate turned dramatically negative. I do fault Bush and some republicans for going along with much of that spending but it was still democrats who controlled it. Bush should have exercised his veto to curtail the spending growth. And since 2008 when Obama took over, the SGS growth rate had remained very negative … currently being at about -3% a year. So it's not a smear to say Obama has created a worse economy.
 
So it's not a smear to say Obama has created a worse economy.

I find that very funny, he comes into a problem, it is a known problem that started before him and now it is all his. Also anything he wants to start now is killed by the so-called republicans even if they were for it in the first place, but now are against it because he wants it too.

Paul

:) :) :)
 
I find that very funny, he comes into a problem, it is a known problem that started before him and now it is all his.

No one denies that Obama came into Oval Office with a recession underway ... just like Bush did. That part of this is not "all" his fault (although he and his party did have a lot to do with why a recession occurred in the first place). But at some point in time even you have to place the responsibility for what follows on his shoulders. Right? And we are now 3 years into his administration. Isn't it time?

In EVERY modern recession we've had, even very deep ones like in 1981-82, recovery was well under way by now. Every one. Which is why I can direct you to charts like this:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_YtR64k69F...4xLruY/s1600/%28%29+a+jobs+recovery+chart.jpg

Why is that? Perhaps because of something that the Presidents who faced this recession did? That's not unlogical, is it?

What's really funny is the denial of this obvious fact and logic by democrats. What is funny is their refusal to accept the obvious … that Obama's way of dealing with the recession (with massive government intervention ... and yes, Bush did a little of that at the very end of his term via the bailouts which were arguably unnecessary and unwise) are what are keeping the economy down now.

Obama is in the process of turning this recession into a depression, just like Hoover's spending and taxing policies turned his recession into a depression. Learn from history. And then FDR's tax and spending (the same type of policies being promoted by Obama now as the solution) prolonged that depression. Learn from history. If you doubt this, then I suggest you read go read the following two posts which cover the essentials and then we can talk further:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6859330&postcount=98

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=7250863&postcount=217

And by the way, one could argue, using SGS type GDP charts and what is the real unemployment rate (given how many have stopped looking for jobs and thus aren't measured in the current 9+ percent rate) that Obama has already managed to turn this into a depression. And as FDR proved, the way out of a depression is NOT what Obama is promoting. It's what Grover Cleveland did in 1893 when he faced one of the worst depression in US history. It's what President Harding did in 1921 when he faced a great recession that could have become a depression very easily.

You liberals really need to wake up, and stop being so defensive regarding *your* President. He sold you a bill of socialist goods and he's leading this country down the wrong path. And what's both very funny and ironic is that it will be the people who support him in the lower ranks of the economy (his *base*, if you will) who will suffer the most should this economy collapse entirely. How do you like them apples?
 
Looking at the chart, one can see that from late 2000 to early 2004 the SGS' GDP growth was indeed negative. But then there were some extenuating circumstances during that period. Bush inherited a recession that began at the end of Clinton's term. We then suffered the 9/11 attack and the disruption to the economy that caused. But unlike Obama, Bush did the right thing and soon the economy recovered so that from about 2004 to 2006, the SGS growth rate was positive or only slightly negative. After democrats took over congress and started spending, spending, spending is when the SGS GDP growth rate turned dramatically negative. I do fault Bush and some republicans for going along with much of that spending but it was still democrats who controlled it. Bush should have exercised his veto to curtail the spending growth. And since 2008 when Obama took over, the SGS growth rate had remained very negative … currently being at about -3% a year. So it's not a smear to say Obama has created a worse economy.

If Bush isn't responsible for the first 4 years of negative growth under his presidency because he inherited a recession from clinton, why is obama already responsible for the recession he inherited from bush?

And of the two recessions, which would you say was the biggest?
 
If Bush isn't responsible for the first 4 years of negative growth under his presidency because he inherited a recession from clinton, why is obama already responsible for the recession he inherited from bush?

Can you not read? Is English your second or third language?

Because I very clearly stated who I felt was responsible for what and to what degree and why.

And what I said doesn't even come close to this strawman you just threw out.

Tell me, what part of this chart don't you understand?

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_YtR64k69F...4xLruY/s1600/%28%29+a+jobs+recovery+chart.jpg
 
In EVERY modern recession we've had, even very deep ones like in 1981-82, recovery was well under way by now. Every one. Which is why I can direct you to charts like this:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_YtR64k69F...4xLruY/s1600/%28%29+a+jobs+recovery+chart.jpg

Why is that? Perhaps because of something that the Presidents who faced this recession did? That's not unlogical, is it?


Well first off I've had to inform you many many times already. Obama took off at month 14 of that chart when the dip was already worse then 1982 and still free fall. If your "logic" is correct the whole recession should have been fixed before Obama took office rather then being in free fall.


But you are correct, there are differences, for example the dollar adjusted value of the stimulus applied in the 1982 recession was twice what was applied in 2010.

And of course the big difference between this recession and the others you piloted is that this one was caused by a deregulated banking system collapsing in on itself. The last time that occurred was 1929 and we know how that turned out. Of course in 1929 we needed to wait 3 years with a "say the course", "let the economy fix itself" "balance the budget Republican in power before the problems could begin to get fixed.
 
Obama took off at month 14 of that chart when the dip was already worse then 1982 and still free fall.

LIAR.

But you are correct, there are differences, for example the dollar adjusted value of the stimulus applied in the 1982 recession was twice what was applied in 2010.

LIAR.

And of course the big difference between this recession and the others you piloted is that this one was caused by a deregulated banking system collapsing in on itself. The last time that occurred was 1929 and we know how that turned out.

LIAR.

You just can't help yourself, lomiller.

You lie every single time you post anything.

Let me prove it once again. :D

Regarding your first claim:

You are simply regurgitating the lie Obama tried to promote on February 5th of 2009, when he claimed that ""all of the indicators show that we are in the worst recession since the Great Depression." But in reality, numerous indicators at that time (unemployment rate, inflation rate, the delta in real GDP, the delta in industrial production, the 30 year mortgage rate, and the "misery index") were far less severe than during the peak of the 1980s recession. Even the New York Times agrees with me on this. Here, from a February 27th, 2009 issue of that paper (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/28/business/economy/28recession.html?_r=1) "Current conditions are not even as poor as during the twin recessions of the 1980s, when unemployment exceeded 10 percent". The fact is that Obama lied even earlier than February 5th because on January 11th, 2009 he stated to ABCNews (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3YMkstD3JzA ) that "Whether it’s retail sales, manufacturing, all of the indicators show that we are in the worst recession since the Great Depression". That statement was simply not true. It was a lie … a lie that gullible supporters like you accepted and keep repeating, regardless of the facts you are shown.

The fact is that history shows over and over that the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery. Real economic growth in the first 4 quarters of the recovery from the 1981-82 recession averaged 7.7%, and averaged 7.1% in the first 7 recovery quarters. And then we went 92 months without another recession. But under Obama we've seen nothing like this. Indeed, real growth was only 5% the first quarter of the recovery and it never got above that. In the second quarter it fell to 3.7%. It fell to 1.7% in the quarter after that. After seven quarters in the Reagan recovery, unemployment had fallen 3.3%, from a high of 10.8% to 7.5%. After seven quarters in the Obama recovery, unemployment fell only 1.3% … and now it's going back up.

Regarding your second claim:

I posted the following to you the last time you claimed that the stimulus applied in 1982 was twice that applied in 2010 …

In particular we discussed the huge stimulus applied in 1980 (2X the recent stimulus in today dollars)

You continue to lie and deceive, lomiller.

What you call stimulus in the 81/82 recession consisted almost entirely of tax cuts, as Malerin pointed out to you in post #181. So I didn't need to respond to you. My side of this debate agrees that tax cuts are good. And the 81 recession proved it. Your side is the one arguing that tax INCREASES and EXTRA SPENDING are good … are what we needed to recover. And there we part company. And so does history. Malerin also listed a bunch of other reasons why your claim about the *stimulus* in 81 being similar in nature and bigger to what Obama has done is completely bogus. But you basically ignored him. So stop lying, lomiller. Stop acting like you know anything about economics or history. You're embarrassing yourself with these repeated lies and distortions (I can probably list at least half a dozen on this thread so far). You are giving lurkers the wrong idea about this forum.


And regarding your third claim:

First, this recession was not primarily caused by a deregulated banking collapse (it was primarily caused by a housing collapse brought on by decades of democrat-driven policies … see Fannie and Freddie and http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/did-deregulated-derivatives-cause-the-financial-crisis/ and regulations forced on banks that encouraged that housing bubble). Second, the banks were just as deregulated in 1981 (see the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980).

Nor was the 1929 collapse primarily caused by a deregulated banking collapse as you claim. It was caused by much the same sort of greed and bad judgement that drove the housing market upwards during the late 90's and 2000's bubble. It was a stock market bubble where stock prices skyrocketed as brokers, investors and banks were leveraging everything on margin to get in on the action. It was caused by those investors not paying attention to the warning signs. And when the 1929 market collapsed, the banks began to collapse. Just as when the 2000's housing market collapsed, the banks found themselves in dire straights. But the second collapse was specifically caused by democrat-driven policies.

Your problem, lomiller, is you and liberals in general NEVER learn. You are so blinded by your ideology that you keep repeating lies that have already been debunked and inventing new ones to spread. And your latest post is proof of both. As I've said before, you are a shameless liar and an embarrassment to the forum. But like you've done time and time again, I predict you will now slink off and just reappear with the same lies some other time. :D
 
Can you not read? Is English your second or third language?

Because I very clearly stated who I felt was responsible for what and to what degree and why.

And what I said doesn't even come close to this strawman you just threw out.

Tell me, what part of this chart don't you understand?

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_YtR64k69F...4xLruY/s1600/%28%29+a+jobs+recovery+chart.jpg

Yes, I can read. I read you blaming the first four years of negative growth under bush on 9/11 and a recession, and blaming obama for the economy within 3. But by this point i'm bored of seeing your childish tantrums, i'm putting you on ignore.
 

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