Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Kaosium]

I was hope that there would be someone who is more adept with search engines than myself might have found more information. However, as Pilot Pardon states there are no breakdowns for example between capital crimes like murder and shop lifting, as for your other points I doubt those categories exist.

Another question which I asked yesterday; does anyone know whether prisoner transfers between Italy and other countries are permitted in capital cases?

I could have sworn Machiavelli posted a breakdown fairly recently at the IIP site, but the search engine only says there's one result for 'appeal acquittal rate'--or whatever I typed in--and it's somewhere in that thread. I skimmed about 2k posts trying to find it without success, as well as about 1k posts in the last thread where I recall seeing it previously. Off the top of my head, with sentence reductions included, it was about 40%.

My point with the other categories was to note this is a fairly unique case and just taking into account one factor such as severity of the crime wouldn't necessarily be the most suggestive of what might happen in this case.

As for your last question, yes. There is a federal prison transfer program with Italy, but that would just put her in an American prison thus isn't very relevant as I suspect the conditions at Capenne are more comfortable. Alt has posted the law in this regard before and my research corroborated hers, though was not extensive.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

I could have sworn Machiavelli posted a breakdown fairly recently at the IIP site, but the search engine only says there's one result for 'appeal acquittal rate'--or whatever I typed in--and it's somewhere in that thread. I skimmed about 2k posts trying to find it without success, as well as about 1k posts in the last thread where I recall seeing it previously. Off the top of my head, with sentence reductions included, it was about 40%.

My point with the other categories was to note this is a fairly unique case and just taking into account one factor such as severity of the crime wouldn't necessarily be the most suggestive of what might happen in this case.

As for your last question, yes. There is a federal prison transfer program with Italy, but that would just put her in an American prison thus isn't very relevant as I suspect the conditions at Capenne are more comfortable. Alt has posted the law in this regard before and my research corroborated hers, though was not extensive.

Thank you Kaosium.

 

[platonov]

Going out on a limb here

As far as I know, no one yet has provided a documented source for the statistics about trial outcomes in Italy. Peter Quennell has given a statistic, but there is no citation.

I have looked for the statistics several times, and so far have found only statistics about crime in Italy, not about the outcomes of trials.

Does it make a difference. Man I almost wish I hadn't mentioned it now - I had forgotten the avaricious hunger of this thread for pointless nonsense.

But OK.

For any utility the numbers would first need to refer to murder trials, and then be further qualified by comparison with similar trials as regards the nature of the evidence, unanimous conviction or not etc etc etc.


Its hard to see what meaningful comparisons could be made with a crime in any case as extraordinary and unique as we are so often told this one is.


But hold on, bear with me for a moment - let me go out on a limb here.


I know this hasn't been mentioned here before but a very similar trial was recently conducted where a guy call Rudy Guede was convicted of a similar offence. [ In fact on looking further into this it appears much of the same evidence from the same investigation was used ]

How did that trial go on appeal ?

 

[lane99]

...RoseMontague and I both found that our doubts about the soundness of the decision grew as our exposure to Massei increased.

Exactly. At first glance, the Massei report might appear to be a joke. Which could explain why those on this forum who worship at its altar so regularly come across as buffoons.

But giving its author the benefit of the doubt, I can only hope that it is- by design- written with a prosecutorial slant. And it, deliberately, eschews any objective and rational analysis of the case.

For all I know this is the nature of the Italian system. And a presumption of innocence is not seriously entertained until the appeal process. Perhaps that is why the number of verdicts overturned on appeal in Italy is so inordinately high.

 

[Mary_H]

Does it make a difference. Man I almost wish I hadn't mentioned it now - I had forgotten the avaricious hunger of this thread for pointless nonsense.

But OK.

For any utility the numbers would first need to refer to murder trials, and then be further qualified by comparison with similar trials as regards the nature of the evidence, unanimous conviction or not etc etc etc.

Its hard to see what meaningful comparisons could be made with a crime in any case as extraordinary and unique as we are so often told this one is.

But hold on, bear with me for a moment - let me go out on a limb here.

I know this hasn't been mentioned here before but a very similar trial was recently conducted where a guy call Rudy Guede was convicted of a similar offence. [ In fact on looking further into this it appears much of the same evidence from the same investigation was used ]

How did that trial go on appeal ?

Are you suggesting that the outcome of Rudy's appeal is a predictor of the outcome of Amanda and Raffaele's appeals? Where do you get this stuff, apart from free association?

You have no thoughts about a system that routinely allows automatic appeals to overturn about half of its own decisions? That is the more interesting question.

 

[Chris C]

If inconsistent verdicts allow the possibility of another RG appeal or the possible setting aside of his conviction, then Fuji is right, the AK/RS appeal will reject the "lone wolf" theory - and not for any legal reasons.

Its about the knife that was put in a glass box and paraded into the courtroom under guard. I seldom see any of the die hard guilters still try to argue that knife was used in the murder. Yet it was presented in 2 seperate trials as the murder weapon. It is also what was used to tie Knox to the murder. So it doesn't matter if the court rejects the lone wolf theory. All that matters is the knife no longer ties Knox to the crime. Thus if Knox is no longer tied to the crime because of the murder weapon, Rudy's conviction is seriously flawed if Knox gets off. Afterall he was a minor participant in a group rape/murder in which a female lead the assault. If she is found innocent, then where does that leave Guede. Are they gonna find another female to lead the assault? Without any other suspects then Guede is basicly innocent of the group version of his conviction. Unless they can find more suspects his lawyer has grounds for appeal on the group murder/sexual assault. Personally I think Guede did the crime all by himself.

 

[RoseMontague]

Does it make a difference. Man I almost wish I hadn't mentioned it now - I had forgotten the avaricious hunger of this thread for pointless nonsense.

But OK.

For any utility the numbers would first need to refer to murder trials, and then be further qualified by comparison with similar trials as regards the nature of the evidence, unanimous conviction or not etc etc etc.


Its hard to see what meaningful comparisons could be made with a crime in any case as extraordinary and unique as we are so often told this one is.


But hold on, bear with me for a moment - let me go out on a limb here.


I know this hasn't been mentioned here before but a very similar trial was recently conducted where a guy call Rudy Guede was convicted of a similar offence. [ In fact on looking further into this it appears much of the same evidence from the same investigation was used ]

How did that trial go on appeal ?

Sentence reduction. I expect to see about a 24 year reduction for Raffaele's appeal.

 

[Mary_H]

Me again...

I became interested in this case after not being able to find a piece of evidence that seemed insurmountable such as some of the blood evidence in the OJ trial.

I would still say I'm not convinced of their innocence because I haven't read everything there is to read but I seem to be leaning towards innocence given the lack of forensic evidence in the murder room.

I am however troubled by neither AK or RS mentioning they were up listening to music at 5AM? Amanda doesn't mention it in her letter to the police and it appears RS mentions it now that he knows the computer records show it. Given they were partying on Halloween and stoned/sex'd/movie watching/sleeping on the night of the murder, how do we make sense of it?

There is no indication Amanda was awake at that time, so the question applies only to Raffaele. The Massei report describes the episode thus, jumping, as usual, to a lot of unfounded conclusions:

Raffaele Sollecito's computer appears to have been activated in order to listen to music at 5:32 am on November 2 for a period of about half an hour (as discussed in more detail in the part devoted to this aspect) after which he switched on his mobile phone again and he could receive, at precisely 6:02 am, the SMS sent to him by his father at 23:14 pm on November 1 (also on this issue we will return in the [74] section dedicated to the cellular telephone traffic by Raffaele Sollecito): these circumstances, while they indicate the peculiarity of that night due to something very unusual happening in it, it does not seem possible that they may have escaped from Amanda Knox’s attention, who instead makes no mention of them, and she claims her waking up was at 10:00 am in Raffaele’s arms as already mentioned. Such activation on the computer and the switching on of the phone that took place between 5:00 and 6:00 am on November 2, were also followed by the call at 9:30 am to Raffaele Sollecito by his father who, knowing that his son on November 2nd had plans for a trip to Gubbio along with Amanda, had called to see if they had left, he understood by how his son answered that he was still in bed. Well, even about this call, and the response to the same by Raffaele, Amanda gave no word, sticking to tell about a long sleep since the evening of November 1st till 10:00-10:30 am of Nov 2nd when, after leaving the house in Corso Garibaldi she went to her own house in Via della Pergola. (page 82)

First, as noted elsewhere in the report, phone records do not show when a cell phone is switched on or off. They show only when a message is received or sent. From that we can conclude only that Raffaele received the SMS from his father, but not that he turned on his phone.

Second, there is nothing "unusual" or "peculiar" about listening to music for a half hour if you happen to wake up early, which is why Raffaele probably didn't even think to mention it. Maybe he got up to go to the bathroom, switched on some music, turned it off when he got the SMS, and went back to sleep.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

You have no thoughts about a system that routinely allows automatic appeals to overturn about half of its own decisions? That is the more interesting question.

It depends on the type of decisions being overturned, if for example 50% of auto theft or shop lifting cases are being overturned from custodial to say fines\community service then in the context of Italy’s justice system that is not surprising. If you are suggesting that half of murder cases are being overturned then that is a worrying trait for a justice system.

 

[Mairanse]

Thanks Mary, but I'm still confused. In the letter you copied from RS, he states

During the 1st November night 2007 there were few interactions until 20:30 circa, then there’s a hole until 5 am. Circa on 2nd November when Amanda and I were listening to some music tracks

I'm only trying to make sense of what they were doing that night based on the available information to see if the most logical story (they were indeed at home) fits with their statements and the known evidence.

It wouldn't be that strange for a newly in love couple to stay up all night especially college aged, or perhaps RS just meant he listened to them alone but Amanda was asleep in bed.

 

[Alt+F4]

I would still say I'm not convinced of their innocence because I haven't read everything there is to read but I seem to be leaning towards innocence given the lack of forensic evidence in the murder room.

Hello new person.

If you want to catch up the important documents start with the Massei Report. Available for download at several websites.

 

[RoseMontague]

Thanks Mary, but I'm still confused. In the letter you copied from RS, he states



I'm only trying to make sense of what they were doing that night based on the available information to see if the most logical story (they were indeed at home) fits with their statements and the known evidence.

It wouldn't be that strange for a newly in love couple to stay up all night especially college aged, or perhaps RS just meant he listened to them alone but Amanda was asleep in bed.

Amanda snores like a buffalo.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

day trip

Thanks Mary, but I'm still confused. In the letter you copied from RS, he states



I'm only trying to make sense of what they were doing that night based on the available information to see if the most logical story (they were indeed at home) fits with their statements and the known evidence.

It wouldn't be that strange for a newly in love couple to stay up all night especially college aged, or perhaps RS just meant he listened to them alone but Amanda was asleep in bed.

Mairanse,

Welcome to the discussion. I thought that Raffaele was making a playlist of music for the day trip that he and Amanda had planned for 2 November. Their destination (Gubbio??) was about 40 km away, IIRC.

 

[Mary_H]

Thanks Mary, but I'm still confused. In the letter you copied from RS, he states

I'm only trying to make sense of what they were doing that night based on the available information to see if the most logical story (they were indeed at home) fits with their statements and the known evidence.

The "hole" makes sense in light of the rest of what he wrote -- first, that the police's destruction of the other hard drives seems to be a little too convenient, and second, that the dates of activity on the computer are completely inaccurate records of when it was used.

It wouldn't be that strange for a newly in love couple to stay up all night especially college aged, or perhaps RS just meant he listened to them alone but Amanda was asleep in bed.

Right. It's somewhat misleading for people to say Raffaele was up listening to music, as if it were a purposeful exercise. He may have been dozing in bed at the time.

ETA: Sorry, I overlooked the part where he says "Amanda and I were listening to some music tracks." So maybe she was awake or dozing, too. Still, I'm not sure it's the kind of thing you would remember when being questioned about it four days later.

 

[Mary_H]

Mairanse,

Welcome to the discussion. I thought that Raffaele was making a playlist of music for the day trip that he and Amanda had planned for 2 November. Their destination (Gubbio??) was about 40 km away, IIRC.

Is that on record anywhere, halides? The Massei report says this:

"Turning to the playing of music files, an activity initiated with the MacBook PRO computer starting from 05:32:08 on the 2nd November 2007, around 05:56:37 (heading 40 of appendix 4 ‚files last accessed*‛+), a ‚playlist‛ was created. Human interaction was continuous (cf. no.54, last access 06:18) for about half an hour from that VLC application crash, of which we have spoken, when [attempting] to play a music file."

Knowing the report's distant relationship with accuracy, it is possible that by playlist, they mean a list of the music that was listened to, that already had been programmed into the computer.

 

[Mary_H]

It depends on the type of decisions being overturned, if for example 50% of auto theft or shop lifting cases are being overturned from custodial to say fines\community service then in the context of Italy’s justice system that is not surprising. If you are suggesting that half of murder cases are being overturned then that is a worrying trait for a justice system.

I would think so. However, we don't have the statistics, so we can't speculate.

 

[HumanityBlues]

It depends on the type of decisions being overturned, if for example 50% of auto theft or shop lifting cases are being overturned from custodial to say fines\community service then in the context of Italy’s justice system that is not surprising. If you are suggesting that half of murder cases are being overturned then that is a worrying trait for a justice system.

Fair point.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

on closer inspection, Massei's report only looks worse

Not just you and RM.

Almost all those convinced of innocence who post here have made that identical claim.
Its practically a 'trope' at this stage.

On closer inspection it turns out that many appear to have confused the Massei report with the cretinous (or mendacious) 'summaries' on 'Science Spheres' or the like.... or else the coincidence of 'misunderstandings' would startle Randi

platonov,

Massei is quite capable of making himself look ignorant (as when he discusses the bra clasp or the mixed DNA) without any help from anyone else.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

not sure where the playlist story came from

Is that on record anywhere, halides? The Massei report says this:

"Turning to the playing of music files, an activity initiated with the MacBook PRO computer starting from 05:32:08 on the 2nd November 2007, around 05:56:37 (heading 40 of appendix 4 ‚files last accessed*‛+), a ‚playlist‛ was created. Human interaction was continuous (cf. no.54, last access 06:18) for about half an hour from that VLC application crash, of which we have spoken, when [attempting] to play a music file."

Knowing the report's distant relationship with accuracy, it is possible that by playlist, they mean a list of the music that was listened to, that already had been programmed into the computer.

Good point. I don't know where I first read the business about a playlist.

 

[Mary_H]

Good point. I don't know where I first read the business about a playlist.

Well, we have speculated here about it a lot, but I don't see it in Amanda's testimony or Raffaele's writings. I just wonder if it is going to turn out to be one of those myths that nobody thinks to check on, like the one about Mignini being dragged out of bed in the middle of the night to hear Amanda's statement.