Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[platonov]

Court/class dismissed.

So you should be able to provide these 4-6 that weren't, we were at Rafaelle's house watching a movie, playing on the computer etc?

Or are you merely meaning that the details of what they were doing at his house have been expanded on since the first "we were at his house"?

Should ?
I could, using links, just as easily (if not quite as effortlessly) as you snipped the portion of my post that dealt with your last argument

So given the lack of response/acknowledgement & the fact that I'm not a Montessori teacher, my patience is at an end. Again, obviously, the fault is mine.

'Court Session' / class is over for now. In fact, it may be a long recess

 

[PhantomWolf]

Should ?
I could, using links, just as easily (if not quite as effortlessly) as you snipped the portion of my post that dealt with your last argument

Links would be fine, that is still "providing", but just saying "I've already answered that 150 times and can't be bothered answering it again" to a person that has only asked once is just a bit rude IMO.

 

[Mairanse]

Thanks for the warm welcome Dan and Mary as well as the wealth of information.

 

[Rolfe]

Few people would suggest that the justice system is Turkey was close to perfect and that the courts are almost always right, but the same admission about the courts in the UK would be far harder.

You're joking, right....

I see what you're saying, and indeed there is a level of blatant bias and corruption that neither Scots nor English courts have a reputation for. But you only have to look at the litany of miscarriages of justice in these countries, with absolutely proven police/forensic misconduct in many, to see that "close to perfect" has to be some sort of sick joke.

Rolfe.

 

[RoseMontague]

So you quoted me saying that people generally think that the Italian system is similar in its trustworthiness to the UK's, except for people that have been in Italian for some time or know the system, and then try and counter this by pointing out that some of those that have studied the Italian system have grave doubts about how trustworthy it is?

At least if you are going to try and disagree with me, try actually disagreeing rather than making my point for me.

I do agree on one point and think that it'd be very nice to see a source for the 20-40% figure. At 40% the first court might as well be tossing a coin to get the verdict so if it's really that bad I'd love to see it shown as such.

The rates on the civil side are extremely high, I have not seen a similar study on the criminal side.

http://translate.google.com/transla...IQFjAJ&usg=AFQjCNGlmxaLRNatsrbHvqt3wnAvxF3Ydg

 

[RoseMontague]

According to this article at TJMK about half of the decisions of the first court are reversed/adjusted.

http://www.truejustice.org/ee/index.php?/tjmk/C368/

Besides the broad appeal rights granted by the Italian law, an ulterior incentive to appeal is given by the fact that Italy has a very high “Reversal Rate” during the appeal process. Approximately half of all sentences rendered in the first trial are in fact reversed during the appeal process, a percentage which is 3 times higher than France for example. The ones that are not reversed often see a decrease in punishment.

 

[Antony]

Dear JREFers -
I was hunting around the net and ran into yet another murder case, in which the police/prosecution may have went down the track, possibly convicting the wrong person. I don't believe I've seen this mentioned before on this forum. In this case, which occurred in Winnipeg, Canada, Prof. Zbigniew Mieczkowski was allegedly murdered by his wife, Dr. Ludmila Ilina.
Dr. Ilina was convicted and has served 15 years of a life sentence. She is currently being assisted by the Innocence Project, which seeks to exonerate her.

A couple of highlights, although this is from my own cursory reading about the case.
a) no clear motive; the suspect found the body and called the police.
b) suspect is an established and well published scholar, no history of violence.
c) no inculpatory DNA evidence related to the murder, weapon not recovered
d) 16-18 hours of continuous police interrogation, without audio or video recording
e) 50 white hairs found around the victim's body, not matching the victim or the suspect
f) the suspect had no physical signs of participating in a violent assault, as the prosecution contended.

I want to post a link to an interesting URL that discusses key aspects of the case, but JREF won't let me since I'm a noobie here. If interested, do a google search for "westernstandard Ludmila Ilina"

I know it's a little off topic, but I thought people would enjoy reading this, since there are at least slight similarities to the Knox case. News like this rarely trickles down from Canada to the US, so this is the first I've heard of it. There was a "5th estate" TV show about this, but it doesn't seem to stream outside of Canada.

I wonder if this case has generated a pro-guilt/pro-innocence controversy around it as well.

I think it highly-likely that there are thousands of wrongful convictions around the world that never receive attention.

This is a case the shuttlt cited as an example of murderer with no previous history of violence, yet when I read the report alarm bells immediately started ringing for me:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/the-towel-that-trapped-a-killer-14097629.html

The DNA evidence as reported seems damning, yet it seems that items from both the accused and the victim were in the custody of the police for 20 years and there was no independent testing of them. Added to that:

• the accused was the occupant of the flat immediately facing the victim's flat. To me this is altogether too convenient for the "investigation" to be credible;
• he had no history of violence (ironically, shuttlt cited this case as a challenge to the idea that such people do not commit murder);
• he made no attempt to flee the jurisdiction in the 20 years up to the time he was arrested (actually this information came from another report which I cited in my original follow-up);
• he continued to protest his innocence in the face of the "evidence" used against him.

As an aside, this case was investigated by the Royal Ulster Constabulary, a police force that does not have the best of reputations in the UK - being associated with sectarian partisanship in the historic conflicts of Northern Ireland.

It's almost entertaining, in a grim sort of way, to count up all the different insults directed against the accused ("sex fiend", "neighbour from hell", "sicko", etc) by the writer of this piece. The thing is, that even when reading a report written with this lack of objectivity, it's often possible to spot cases of dodgy justice.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

Does anyone know the percentages for capital crimes (murder cases) that are over turned at the first or second appeal in Italy?

 

[zeb]

Nothing.

Agree.

 

[pilot padron]

Not Quite

Does anyone know the percentages for capital crimes (murder cases) that are over turned at the first or second appeal in Italy?

You have found the very weak underpinning of the 'hopeful cheerleaders' argument that 'half the cases heard in Italian Courts are overturned', and their erroneous implication that therefore the probability of an Appeal favorable to them is 40-50%.

If there was ever a case of distorting statistics, that is it.

The 40-50% (about half) is in itself a true statement, and this is oft quoted from the premier source of factual resource materiel about the case, TJMK.

However since:
1) The statistic includes *all cases* most of which are not as serious as murder, and most of which do not require as lengthy a discovery process nor as lengthy lower Court process.
2) The statistic makes no distinction between unanimous lower court guilty verdicts, and those less than unanimous, or even some that were so 'non unanimous' to require the judge to be a 'tie breaker'.

Common sense dictates that in no way could it be therefore concluded (and now used as a 'cheer') that 40-50% of the *unanimous verdicts in murder cases* are overturned, so Knox and Sollecito before any Appeals starts, have a 40-50% chance of winning .

 

[RoseMontague]

I have posted the Italian detention order for Sabrina on my docstoc page:

http://www.docstoc.com/profile/rosemontague

 

[Chris_Halkides]

perp walks

I have posted the Italian detention order for Sabrina on my docstoc page:

http://www.docstoc.com/profile/rosemontague

RoseMontague,

Thank you. Sabrina's mother doing a perp walk and being spat at is just horrible. This is a good example of why we should get rid of perp walks in all nations.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

diagrammatic representation of the case

the diagram doesn't include the defendants own idiotic responses to police questions. Or that knox was stupid enough to write down an untrue version of events

yeti101,

Thanks for the input. My friend altered his diagram to include Ms. Knox's statement.

 

[Chris C]

the diagram doesn't include the defendants own idiotic responses to police questions. Or that knox was stupid enough to write down an untrue version of events

I thought it was the police that wrote it.

 

[RoseMontague]

You have found the very weak underpinning of the 'hopeful cheerleaders' argument that 'half the cases heard in Italian Courts are overturned', and their erroneous implication that therefore the probability of an Appeal favorable to them is 40-50%.

If there was ever a case of distorting statistics, that is it.

The 40-50% (about half) is in itself a true statement, and this is oft quoted from the premier source of factual resource materiel about the case, TJMK.

However since:
1) The statistic includes *all cases* most of which are not as serious as murder, and most of which do not require as lengthy a discovery process nor as lengthy lower Court process.
2) The statistic makes no distinction between unanimous lower court guilty verdicts, and those less than unanimous, or even some that were so 'non unanimous' to require the judge to be a 'tie breaker'.

Common sense dictates that in no way could it be therefore concluded (and now used as a 'cheer') that 40-50% of the *unanimous verdicts in murder cases* are overturned, so Knox and Sollecito before any Appeals starts, have a 40-50% chance of winning .

As that study I posted earlier points out, there was no correlation between the length of the process and the reversal of the decision of the first court in terms of civil cases. Is there any reason to think that a murder case would be an outlier on the overall statistics?

You have made an assumption that murder cases will have significantly different numbers, but I see no basis for that.

My bet is that the reversal rate on cases handled by a prosecutor that has been convicted of abuse of office is going to be higher than the norm.

 

[pilot padron]

Look it up

I thought it was the police that wrote it.

You thought wrong.
Amanda Knox wrote it.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

You thought wrong.
Amanda Knox wrote it.

The statements that Amanda signed were prepared by her interrogators. She did not write those statements.

Amanda did write a retraction later in the day.

 

[pilot padron]

Common sense and bad bets

As that study I posted earlier points out, there was no correlation between the length of the process and the reversal of the decision of the first court in terms of civil cases. Is there any reason to think that a murder case would be an outlier on the overall statistics?

You have made an assumption that murder cases will have significantly different numbers, but I see no basis for that.

My bet is that the reversal rate on cases handled by a prosecutor that has been convicted of abuse of office is going to be higher than the norm.

My assumption is based on the fact that I strongly believe that any Court proceeding anywhere that could send a defendant to jail for life is going to be more careful about 'getting it right' than a proceeding for a run of the mill noise complaint.
Have you ever been to a municipal Court ?
Yet both 'proceedings' are part of your 'about half overturned' statistical assertion.

When a murder decision is unanimous, my point is that it will have much less probability of being overturned than a less than unanimous noise conviction.
There are no statistics I am aware of to prove or disprove that.
I respect your right, but choose not to join you in believing otherwise
(At some point in the 50,000++ a tad of common sense may be in order ?)

Thanks, but no thanks on the bet.
Your point is well taken, and the odds are probably in your favor.
Although I have seen no statistics to prove or disprove that either.
Additionally, since many Italians have stated this particular conviction was politically motivated and influenced, statistical significance may be diminished.
An all around 'bad bet'.

 

[pilot padron]

Nice try, but yet another inaccuracy

The statements that Amanda signed were prepared by her interrogators. She did not write those statements.

Amanda did write a retraction later in the day.

Still wrong

Obviously, we do not need to read an author's self published book or suffer another reminder here to know that many 'statements' were prepared and signed by various parties in this case.

As an evidently necessary reminder, the point was:
"Or that knox was stupid enough to write down an untrue version of events"

I thought it was the police that wrote it.

1) The retraction was a *self written statement* signed by Knox
2) The retraction itself included some 'untrue events'.
But, you knew that did you not ??

 

[Fuji]

You want to convince Rolfe to read Massei?

"Go ahead, make my day"

Hardly. I'm not here to convince anyone to do anything. However, I find it dispiriting that Rolfe would publicly take such a position without having read the report.