Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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A good point, and a valid comparison in my view (even though one of them is semi-fictional). In a similar vein, I couldn't help noticing the physical similarities between Mignini and Sepp Blatter. I got to wondering [hilte]whether the similarities extended beyond the merely physical:[/hilte] after all, one of these two men is currently fighting an uphill battle against endemic corruption within his organisation, and is using political patronage and influence in a last-ditch effort to try to protect himself........ and the other is Giuliano Mignini*


* delete as applicable :D

Did I pass? :)

I had to look up your comparison, as a barbarous colonial I know nothing about soccer 'real football' and in doing so I found this:

"Blatter incurred criticism from female footballers in 2004 when he suggested that women should "wear tighter shorts and low cut shirts... to create a more female aesthetic" and attract more male fans..."

I guess they just might have more in common than appearances and being the opposite side of the same coin regarding corruption. :D
 
I think you're missing the point I'm making. Anyone who starts from the position "Amanda and Raffaele are guilty", and then judges the existence of evidence or motive based on that belief, is not taking a rational approach to the case. Rational and fair-minded people start from the evidence (including a plausible motive for the crime) and make a judgement on guilt or innocence to conform to the evidence.
Clearly if guilt or innocence, which ever you happen to believe, is part of your reasoning when you look at a piece of evidence you are putting yourself at risk of confirmation bias. I don't think it's true that rational and fair minded people can escape this though. Theory building and provisional beliefs about the case are unavoidable. It's just a question of degree.

It now seems you aren't even pretending to do that. Your judgement about the quality of the knife and bra-clasp "evidence", as well as the claims about a "staged" break-in, is based on what you think about their likely guilt, or not. Can you not see how insane that is, and unjust?
I don't know how you are reading this into anything that I have said remotely recently. Have I said that I am personally convinced by the knife evidence? I don't recall mentioning the staged breakin in quite a while and I'd be very surprised if I had said I was convinced the breakin was staged. Could you spell out what it is that you are responding to and what you are interpreting it to mean? Right now it feels like we've got a crossed wire.
 
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Kaosium, you might enjoy "Il Divo", Paolo Sorrentino's 2008 biopic of Andreotti. While the story of a career Italian politician may sound like pretty dull viewing, I found the film to be surprisingly engrossing, anchored by Toni Servillo's remarkable impersonation of the lead character. A strong impression left by the film was the pervasive suspicion in Italy of malfeasance lurking behind outward propriety. Indeed, a strong strain of Italian political thought holds that the two decades of terrorism known as "The Years of Lead" was, in fact, a "false flag" operation, with the object of concentrating power among the centrist parties. I'm starting to understand why the absurd fable peddled by Mignini found so many willing buyers.

"You sin in thinking ill of people, but you are often right" - Giulio Andreotti

Recently I had cause to learn more about him and his career trying to puzzle out something Platonov had said, and it did sound like he'd lived an interesting life. I think some would have liked to drive a stake through his heart, especially those who came to the same conclusion about the purpose of the Red Brigades and Operation Gladio as you note.

Considering the chaotic nature of Italian politics it doesn't surprise me that some would see 'associations' everywhere. I've come across a number of indications that it's quite popular in certain circles. Thus as you point out perhaps to them the possibility of three people who barely knew each other conspiring to murder a girl for no reason seems mundane.
 
What I would like to know is,did their confidence in guilt come when they announced the case was closed, or when Amandas picture was hung on the wall of shame.I can't recall reading any comments on those issues from anyone believing in guilt.
 
Dan O.

What they did seems fair enough as a phase one activity. It seems similar in some ways to discovery activities I've been involved with in that you agree a set of search criteria and retrieve all the stuff that matches. For us it's a data protection thing as much as anything. At the same time it's the kind of thing that almost anybody could do. Hunting through the various system and application logs takes more skill and knowledge. If phase two never happened then it shows a lack of curiosity or basic knowledge by pretty much everyone.


What they did was present themselves to the court as experts and under the guise of their expertise they proclaimed that they saw no evidence of human interaction with the computer in that time period. They used their expert knowledge to go beyond the raw evidence to exclude activity highlighted by the file time stamps such as cache files created by FireFox. And they reported the last opened time for Amelie so it wasn't beyond their mandate to look at such things. Yet while they were aware that there were other time stamps in the system that the Encase software was not listing, they made no effort to follow this lead and they neglected to inform the court that what they did was an incomplete job.

Also, when these expertsdolts looked for web browsing activity:
The Postal Police were able to determine that there was no navigation inside Mozilla Firefox’s cache, also on the basis of the analysis of the log files supplied by Fastweb. (from Massei pg 329)​
They completely ignored the 4 seconds of access to Apple's homepage around 1 am. While Massei dismisses this event as being well after the time of Meredith's death (even by the prosecutions timeline), this was right in the middle of the time frame they were tasked to investigate and splits the time they claimed there was no activity in half. How could they have missed this when as they say, "very few bytes went through port 80".

Does this still sound "fair enough" to you?
 
Hi Platanov,
Indiana is bordered on the west by Illinois. Bordered on the north by Michigan, and east by Ohio.
 
As a post-script to the whole offender profiling issue, I'd wager that if a dozen experienced profilers were show the crime scene and the autopsy report in the Kercher case and asked to produce a profile, not one of them would suggest that the crime was the work of a group of people which included a woman. I think they would all produce profiles which suggested that the murder was the work of a lone male killer, who was quite youthful and inexperienced (disorganised crime scene, covered body, no attempt to move the body). I think that the profiles might also suggest that the culprit had experience of petty crime and minor sexual deviancy. Of course, this is all total speculation on my part :)

It's worth bearing in mind that acts of extreme violence committed by groups are extremely rare, outside of gang warfare or tribal rivalries (e.g. football hooliganism). And it's even more rare for a woman to be involved. Of course there are some murders where women participate alongside men, but the circumstances have - without exception - been particular and peculiar. In pretty much every case, the female has been susceptible to controlling influences, and she has been progressively indoctrinated by a male sexual partner - usually over many years - before the first serious crimes are committed by the pair.


This is vividly illustrated if we look at a few of the examples that the pro-guilt groupthinkers tend to hold up as more-or-less direct read-across comparators to Knox and Sollecito:

1) In the case of Homolka and Bernardo, Bernardo (the male) had been raised in a family where familial sexual abuse was rife, and had already committed a number of rapes by the time he met Homolka. She was 17, naive and submissive when she met him - he was her first serious boyfriend, and certainly her first sexual partner. Bernadro continued his rapes (without Homolka's knowledge) for the first year or so of their relationship, while he gradually established a controlling hold over her. It wasn't until almost four years into their relationship that Bernardo and Homolka committed their first offences together.

2) Hindley and Brady followed a very similar pattern to the Homolka/Bernardo case above. Brady (male) tortured animals as a child, and was a convicted burglar by the age of 15. Hindley became infatuated with Brady, who again was her first serious boyfriend and her first sexual partner. As Brady indoctrinated Hindley into his extremist views and sexual deviancy, he moved her towards the threshold of committing crimes by planning bank robberies with her (which were never carried out). The first sex crimes committed by Brady and Hindley took place over two years after they started their relationship.

There are many other examples (Bonnie & Clyde, Fred & Rose West, etc) which follow similar patterns of gradual indoctrination measured in years, not months, or weeks - or SIX DAYS. See, one of the critically important things to remember about group crimes is that there has to be an extremely high level of trust among the participants. That trust is only mutually gained by having an intensely close and intimate level of emotional bond with the other person/people in the group, and a well-established comfort with each other's moral code. It also almost always involves a gradual breaking down of moral boundaries in small increments over a long period of time, before the joint commission of the most heinous crimes becomes acceptable to all the people involved.

Interestingly, Brady and Hindley got caught because Brady allowed his hubris and arrogance to get the better of him: having successfully "converted" Hindley to the extent that she was a willing participant and facilitator in the horrific murders, Brady took the chance of introducing Hindley's brother in law, David Smith, to the group by having him witness the murder of Edward Evans. It's obvious that Brady had judged that Smith would find the murder thrilling - thus expanding the group. Instead, however, Smith was appalled and informed the police.

Greetings LondonJohn and others,
Interesting post.

When I look at this case from my own street-wise upbringing in Venice Beach, well I note that it is Amanda who is supposedly the ringleader of the group of 3 who murdered Miss Kercher. So I wonder what kind of profile might be devolped by studying her?

At a classical music concert of all places, this woman can meet and pick up a guy, bed him for 6 days only and have him participate in a bloody stabbing murder. But wait, she can also get this same disciple to allow another male, 1 who is a complete stranger to her new disciple, to participate also. And yet this same guy, who only got to **** his master for 6 days, didn't even turn on her afterwards. Only the other guy did, you know, the 1 who left his DNA inside the victims body...

What a case study this must be.

Knifing someone is a very personal way to hurt or kill someone.
You are going to feel the blade penetrate the persons body as their blood gets on you.

In the history of bloody, knife-wielding murderers,
I wonder how many, if any, were females who liked to attend classical music concerts?
 
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The problem I see with the testimony of prosecution witnesses concerning Knox and Meredith's supposed arguments/problems over Knox bringing a guy over and her inability to clean up is they are trying to make it sound like its Knox that has the problem with Meredith. Except if you look closely at what is being said its Meredith that had problems and she was the one being confrontational about it. Could anyone post anything that prosecution witnesses claim that Knox said that was negative about Meredith? Though I seriously doubt there was any major issues between Knox and Meredith. I'm willing to bet it was just people being people and complaining.
 
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I think you're missing the point I'm making. Anyone who starts from the position "Amanda and Raffaele are guilty", and then judges the existence of evidence or motive based on that belief, is not taking a rational approach to the case. Rational and fair-minded people start from the evidence (including a plausible motive for the crime) and make a judgement on guilt or innocence to conform to the evidence.

It now seems you aren't even pretending to do that. Your judgement about the quality of the knife and bra-clasp "evidence", as well as the claims about a "staged" break-in, is based on what you think about their likely guilt, or not. Can you not see how insane that is, and unjust?


shuttlt is teasing you with language, Antony. He is very subtle. Rose caught on and teased him back, in her last post.
 
Hi Chris C,
Interesting point you brought up.
Where is the anger Amanda must have had at Meredith?
I've never heard anyone say that they heard Amanda call Meredith a friggin' b, I hate her, etc.

Case in point, I gotta phone call yesterday from a dude I used to hang with, I can't stand the guy anymore, yet he still wants to be friends. He left messages sayin' what an ******* I was, F me and this and that. Now, most of my current close friends know that I can't stand this guy, so IF I whoop his arse, well everyone knows we gotta problem between us. And our problem, which my friends know, ain't from lack of cleanliness nor bringin' chicks over to the pad...

As Chris C wrote above, I too ask:
Could anyone post anything that prosecution witnesses claim that Knox said that was negative about Meredith?
 
On the night of the murder, were there two bedsheets on Meredith's bed, or just one? Charlie posted these selective results of tests here some time ago:

See HERE: DNA RESULTS

In that document "Rep 63" refers to samples taken from a white bed sheet, while "Rep 123" and "Rep 124" refer to samples taken from a matress cover.

Is this white bed sheet what normal people would call a top bedsheet, and is this matress cover what normal people would call a bottom, fitted, bedsheet?

///
 
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Clearly if guilt or innocence, which ever you happen to believe, is part of your reasoning when you look at a piece of evidence you are putting yourself at risk of confirmation bias. I don't think it's true that rational and fair minded people can escape this though. Theory building and provisional beliefs about the case are unavoidable. It's just a question of degree.

To a degree that is true, but you have to follow where the reasoning takes you to see whether or not it really is confirmation bias. I will go along with what Kevin Lowe says about this:

Once they get stuck at a high degree of confidence in a belief there's no shifting them because that belief is no longer conditional on the evidence, it's a permanent fixture of their mental landscape which the evidence must be shaped to fit.

(Note that there is an important difference between logical deduction, which is perfectly legitimate, and this kind of post hoc rationalisation. Deduction requires that you know your starting point(s) to be correct with a very, very high degree of certainty and that you maintain this high level of justified belief throughout the deductive process).

Take the case of the alleged "murder weapon" taken from Raffaele's kitchen drawer. If you are convinced of innocence, then this knife can't possibly really be the murder weapon, so we start to look for reasons to think that the DNA reading is from contamination. And we find that the knife was tested in an uncertified laboratory already containing the victim's DNA, by an unrecognised procedure, and that the technician carrying out the test never ran any controls for contamination. Not only that, but the knife was previously removed from the collection envelope by police and placed in a used cardboard box for no discernible reason. So there is more than one route by which it could have been contaminated, but the laboratory procedures alone make the test manifestly meaningless.

By contrast, if we are convinced of Amanda's guilt, then we need this knife to be the murder weapon, so we have to "rationalise" how that could be the case. Without any corroborating evidence, we conclude that she was carrying it around in her large bag, sheathed in the pages of the Harry Potter book. Not only that, but we find that 2 of the 3 victim's wounds do not match it, neither does it match a bloody imprint of a knife on the bedsheet - so we have to conclude that more than one knife was used.

The fact that no less a person than Judge Massei went along with the above "rationalisation" doesn't make it any less a case of confirmation bias - and a particularly ludicrous one at that. On the other hand, the reasoning starting from an opinion of innocence is one that is supported by the facts. Can you not see the difference?

I don't know how you are reading this into anything that I have said remotely recently. Have I said that I am personally convinced by the knife evidence? I don't recall mentioning the staged breakin in quite a while and I'd be very surprised if I had said I was convinced the breakin was staged.

Given that you were saying things like: "when we are all convinced of their guilt, it will be easy to agree on how and why they did it", it seemed reasonable to me to discuss the actual arguments that are being used by the pro-guilt side.

Could you spell out what it is that you are responding to and what you are interpreting it to mean? Right now it feels like we've got a crossed wire.

What I am responding to is this:

Yes. I am aware of it. My point was that I believe it is a lot easier to accept explanations of "why" once one is convinced about the "what". You can't have a post-hoc rationalization as the cause of you accepting the thing you are trying to explain with the post-hoc rationalization.

To me that clearly states: "conclusion first, evidence tailored to fit." If that isn't what you meant then please explain how.
 
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To a degree that is true, but you have to follow where the reasoning takes you to see whether or not it really is confirmation bias. I will go along with what Kevin Lowe says about this:


Okay ...

Take the case of the alleged "murder weapon" taken from Raffaele's kitchen drawer. If you are convinced of innocence, then this knife can't possibly really be the murder weapon, so we start to look for reasons to think that the DNA reading is from contamination.
<snip>

To me that clearly states: "conclusion first, evidence tailored to fit." If that isn't what you meant then please explain how.


... go ahead.

:rolleyes:

It never ceases to amaze me that people can be so blind to what they themselves are writing.
 
Okay ...




... go ahead.

:rolleyes:

It never ceases to amaze me that people can be so blind to what they themselves are writing.

Seems to be deliberate misunderstanding of what I typed. There is nothing wrong with looking for evidence to support your instincts. This is how science works. It's when you fail to find evidence and then invent the facts you need, that it becomes confirmation bias.

In my example of the kitchen knife, the pro-innocence side naturally suspects contamination; and sure enough, any rational, objective assessment of the procedures used by Stefanoni screams "contamination!"

The pro-guilt side, however (by which I include Massei), invented the story of Amanda carrying the knife around for "protection", and they invented the idea that 2 knives were used - just as they invented the story of the "staged" break-in and the fictitious clean-up. The prosecution narrative of the crime is constructed on invented facts from beginning to end.
 
This is another reason I would like to see the pictures on the computers. The complaint about the cleaning was directed at both Amanda and Meredith from the Italian girls that felt they were doing more than their fair share. I don't pay much attention to the bringing men over as Meredith did the same. The vibrator is a pretty silly bit of vindictive hearsay in my opinion.
RoseMontague,

Laura also brought a boyfriend over. I agree that the Meredith and Amanda were friendly.
 
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