Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[HumanityBlues]

Here's a couple of interesting stories, I found the status of the Daily Mail's comments section to be unusual for this case, though it looks like they just opened it up to comments and the opportunity to 'select' the up/down arrows. I'm sure it will change as the ones who spent all night singing 'Rule Britannia' until the bathtub ran out of gin will have their hangovers wear off and they'll be pushing that red down arrow for any comment not negative enough about Amanda, and pushing the green one for the posts that want her strung up and left to twist in the wind.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...eives-fresh-impetus-from-forensic-review.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ufficient-convict-her.html?ito=feeds-newsxml#

"The bra clasp was described as 'so deteriorated' that it was impossible to re-examine it for any traces of DNA.

It was originally found at the scene, but then lost for six weeks before being discovered elsewhere in Meredith's bedroom.

According to the leaked report, the clasp - which had been cut from the bra - had been poorly kept in a 'liquid jar' and not properly dried which meant it had 'rotted and rusted'

Shocking! The police have such a good track record in this case....

 

[Kaosium]

By your figures alone Rose, the latest TOD would have to be after 10:30, latest start of supper, 6:30 plus 4 hours, not three for the latest, and also, that would only take into account the start of the 'murder or attack' as everyone seems to agree that digestion would stop at this point,

If you read the literature that has been posted in this thread, three hours is pretty much the outside range, despite what the other experts testified to. Off the top of my head at 3 hours you're at about a 99.9% chance of material having entered the duodenum after the beginning of the meal. This curve really flattens out on the far end.

and how long did the three torment Meredith before they finally killed her, no one is sure, so TOD could well be 11:30 by your own account above.

You'd think if they had 'tormented her' for as long as an hour they'd need to restrain her somehow, and the complete lack of evidence of her being tied up (leaves marks on wrists) or any trace whatsoever outside that bra clasp of either being there (and holding her down) strongly suggests this did not occur. The '40+ wounds' that have been bandied about are mostly small bruises and lacerations, the sort one could get a dozen of easily just being thrown to the floor.

This is one reason why so many say that you should not use stomach contents to determine TOD, too many variables.

This might be a rather unique case in that regard, being as the time of the last meal being eaten and the last time known alive happen to correspond with the far end of the Gaussian curve and nothing had passed into her duodenum. It would be less worthwhile if that material had started to move into the duodenum, though one might make an estimate from t(1/2)--the amount of time it takes for half the meal to make it into the duodenum--however it's just the precise circumstances of this case that make it especially valuable where it wouldn't be normally.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

If you read the literature that has been posted in this thread, three hours is pretty much the outside range, despite what the other experts testified to. Off the top of my head at 3 hours you're at about a 99.9% chance of material having entered the duodenum after the beginning of the meal. This curve really flattens out on the far end.

No, I was referring to Rose saying that 9:30 was the latest when she had already stated two of the doctors claimed 3-4 hours, in which case, if you wanted the latest, you would have to go with the 4 hours, not the 3.

You'd think if they had 'tormented her' for as long as an hour they'd need to restrain her somehow, and the complete lack of evidence of her being tied up (leaves marks on wrists) or any trace whatsoever outside that bra clasp of either being there (and holding her down) strongly suggests this did not occur. The '40+ wounds' that have been bandied about are mostly small bruises and lacerations, the sort one could get a dozen of easily just being thrown to the floor.

But there were signs of her being restrained, bruising on her wrists and Rudy's DNA I believe was also found on Meredith's shirt by her wrist was it not. No one knows how long it took before they killed her and unless one of the three talks, I don't think we'll ever know this.

This might be a rather unique case in that regard, being as the time of the last meal being eaten and the last time known alive happen to correspond with the far end of the Gaussian curve and nothing had passed into her duodenum. It would be less worthwhile if that material had started to move into the duodenum, though one might make an estimate from t(1/2)--the amount of time it takes for half the meal to make it into the duodenum--however it's just the precise circumstances of this case that make it especially valuable where it wouldn't be normally.

My own thoughts on this is that the murder did start around the 9-9:30 time frame and Meredith was most likely dead by 10:00 - but there is no way to know this for sure is all I'm saying, it could be later as well.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

abundant DNA? another falsehood

To all,

I see that at least two posters at one of the two PMF sites are claiming that Raffaele's DNA was "abundant" on the clasp. This is false. It was 1/6 to 1/10 the quantity of Meredith's DNA, which puts it on the borderline of low template levels. One can also examine the electropherogram itself and see that the peaks are small, on the order of 200 RFU. That this is "abundant" is another bit of nonsense that gets repeated, despite attempts to correct it that are too numerous to remember.

So the clasp is rusted? Why am I not surprised?

 

[Ampulla of Vater]

My own thoughts on this is that the murder did start around the 9-9:30 time frame and Meredith was most likely dead by 10:00 - but there is no way to know this for sure is all I'm saying, it could be later as well.

At least you admit Massei got something wrong. Anything else you think he was wrong about in his plethora of reasoning?

 

[RoseMontague]

By your figures alone Rose, the latest TOD would have to be after 10:30, latest start of supper, 6:30 plus 4 hours, not three for the latest, and also, that would only take into account the start of the 'murder or attack' as everyone seems to agree that digestion would stop at this point, and how long did the three torment Meredith before they finally killed her, no one is sure, so TOD could well be 11:30 by your own account above.

This is one reason why so many say that you should not use stomach contents to determine TOD, too many variables.

If you read my entire post instead of what you just quoted I believe I said the common number I was using was 3 hours. Three hours also seems to be supported by the articles and literature previously cited here. 11:30 would be 5 hours, btw. Even using the 4 hours according to Curatolo they were still at the basketball court (at 10:30).

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

If you read my entire post instead of what you just quoted I believe I said the common number I was using was 3 hours. Three hours also seems to be supported by the articles and literature previously cited here. 11:30 would be 5 hours, btw. Even using the 4 hours according to Curatolo they were still at the basketball court (at 10:30).

Well, you did say "To me that puts the latest TOD at about 9:30" which by what you yourself stated is not true. Had you just left out that one word 'latest' then fine but in reality, the latest could quite possibly be, 11:30ish?

 

[Kaosium]

No, I was referring to Rose saying that 9:30 was the latest when she had already stated two of the doctors claimed 3-4 hours, in which case, if you wanted the latest, you would have to go with the 4 hours, not the 3.

I understand what you mean, and by that standard it is perfectly correct. They did testify out to four hours, my point was the literature seemed to back Lalli on this, as by 3 hours out you're at something akin to 99.9% of the population regardless. Thus I suspect Rose's estimate of three hours at the latest is more likely to be accurate than four hours, despite that testimony.

But there were signs of her being restrained, bruising on her wrists and Rudy's DNA I believe was also found on Meredith's shirt by her wrist was it not. No one knows how long it took before they killed her and unless one of the three talks, I don't think we'll ever know this.

Were there lacerations though? Raw skin from rubbing against rope or wire? A bruise could indicate a number of things, but by itself wouldn't suggest to me that the subject had been forcibly restrained by the wrists for any length of time.

My own thoughts on this is that the murder did start around the 9-9:30 time frame and Meredith was most likely dead by 10:00 - but there is no way to know this for sure is all I'm saying, it could be later as well.

I understand your point.

 

[Danny]

I am more than curious to read the outcome of today’s proceedings. As for the witnesses today, if I owned a club in Perugia or ran a tourist bus service I could only comment about what my club or bus company did on the night Meredith was murdered, I could not state that no clubs were open or that no buses where running.

Nobody has stated that no clubs were open or that no buses were running. The three club owners who operate the specific disco shuttle buses described unmistakeably by the homeless heroin dealer Curatolo stated that no shuttle buses to their discos were operating that night.

But you know this already.

 

[RoseMontague]

Well, you did say "To me that puts the latest TOD at about 9:30" which by what you yourself stated is not true. Had you just left out that one word 'latest' then fine but in reality, the latest could quite possibly be, 11:30ish?

I am using 3 hours as my latest, that is why I said "To me".
I don't see the 4 hours as something reasonable in a healthy adult.

 

[Kaosium]

To all,

I see that at least two posters at one of the two PMF sites are claiming that Raffaele's DNA was "abundant" on the clasp. This is false. It was 1/6 to 1/10 the quantity of Meredith's DNA, which puts it on the borderline of low template levels. One can also examine the electropherogram itself and see that the peaks are small, on the order of 200 RFU. That this is "abundant" is another bit of nonsense that gets repeated, despite attempts to correct it that are too numerous to remember.

If I recall correctly, what was considered 'abundant' was the 1.4 ng of material, only a fraction of which was actually attributable to Raffaele, the other being Meredith and the mysterious other attendants to this unlikely gathering on that tiny clasp. However, come to think of it, 1.4 ng wouldn't be 'abundant' it would be just about perfect for one test if I understand the process correctly. Although relative to the putative DNA of Meredith on the blade of the knife, which could be charitably described as 'nowhere near enough,' perhaps 1.4 ng seems 'abundant.' I got that 1.4 ng figure from Frank's post on the subject where he talks about it being revealed when one of them (Stafanoni?) went for a cigarette, I'm pretty sure it was in relation to the bra clasp.

So the clasp is rusted? Why am I not surprised?

I was, color me flummoxed. They just let this stuff wander off, get lost for six weeks, find it again to great hoopla, then place it in a moist jar to rot away. I don't think the Innocence Project will be able to ever do business in Italy, it appears the DNA they use to convict people is disposable.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

Nobody has stated that no clubs were open or that no buses were running. The three club owners who operate the specific disco shuttle buses described unmistakeably by the homeless heroin dealer Curatolo stated that no shuttle buses to their discos were operating that night.

But you know this already.

Not sure how that changes my post that you quoted, those that testified could only speak of what their bus company did or whether their club was open. I am curious to read reports of what and how Curatolo testmony comes across on Saturday, seems a reasonable approach.

 

[Danny]

Not sure how that changes my post that you quoted, those that testified could only speak of what their bus company did or whether their club was open. I am curious to read reports of what and how Curatolo testmony comes across on Saturday, seems a reasonable approach.

Your post was a distortion of the truth in that it implied that the defence are claiming no buses of any kind were running on Nov 1st 2007 and no clubs at all were open. The defence have never claimed this.

What they did claim was that the specific disco shuttle buses described by the tramp Curatolo were not running on the night of the murder. This has now been proved. Each of the three nighclub owners spoke for themselves.

I too am curious as to how Curatolo's testimony comes across on Saturday. Let's see how well he has been coached. But no matter how much coaching you do, if someone is basically insane, it won't work.

 

[Chris C]

By your figures alone Rose, the latest TOD would have to be after 10:30, latest start of supper, 6:30 plus 4 hours, not three for the latest, and also, that would only take into account the start of the 'murder or attack' as everyone seems to agree that digestion would stop at this point, and how long did the three torment Meredith before they finally killed her, no one is sure, so TOD could well be 11:30 by your own account above.

This is one reason why so many say that you should not use stomach contents to determine TOD, too many variables.

So you believe the attack happened before 11:30? Do you believe Guede when he said he saw the people in the broke down car when he left the scene? Which also begs to question, why does no one that is pro guilt believe Guede when he says Meredith was dead and he had left the scene by 10:30.

 

[Chris C]

To all,

I see that at least two posters at one of the two PMF sites are claiming that Raffaele's DNA was "abundant" on the clasp. This is false. It was 1/6 to 1/10 the quantity of Meredith's DNA, which puts it on the borderline of low template levels. One can also examine the electropherogram itself and see that the peaks are small, on the order of 200 RFU. That this is "abundant" is another bit of nonsense that gets repeated, despite attempts to correct it that are too numerous to remember.

So the clasp is rusted? Why am I not surprised?

What Raffaele's DNA? If you look at the profile its a massive pile of RFU markers that allowed Stefanoni to pick out what profile they wanted. His profile is cherry picked, with apparently him sharing numerous markers that belonged to Meredith.

 

[Danny]

But there were signs of her being restrained, bruising on her wrists and Rudy's DNA I believe was also found on Meredith's shirt by her wrist was it not. No one knows how long it took before they killed her and unless one of the three talks, I don't think we'll ever know this.

We know exactly how long it took before they killed her according to the prosecution. Curatolo places Sollecito and Knox at the basketball court until 11:30 pm. Meredith was killed at 11:30 pm according to the prosecution.

So they ran into the cottage at 11:30 and killed Meredith immediately. Then they immediately ran away in different directions according to Cappezalli.

 

[el buscador]

Rudy's appeals documents have been translated and can be found on the pmf.org site.

 

[Danny]

Rudy's appeals documents have been translated and can be found on the pmf.org site.

Watch out for 'accidental' translation errors which inexplicably always seem to favour the prosecution.

 

[el buscador]

Well, it does seem they are missing a page. I haven't read it yet but a missing page is probably too obvious to be "accidental" so the reader is warned in advance.

 

[Kaosium]

What Raffaele's DNA? If you look at the profile its a massive pile of RFU markers that allowed Stefanoni to pick out what profile they wanted. His profile is cherry picked, with apparently him sharing numerous markers that belonged to Meredith.

What about the YSTR analysis? That couldn't have come from Meredith.