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PEAK OIL: Going Mainstream

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An interveiw with Robert Hirsch, whose new book (pdf)

'The Impending World Energy Mess. What It Is and What It Means To You'

was published on October 1st:


‘Peak Oil’ : Jimmy Carter’s Secretary of Energy sounds the alarm
Interview with Robert L. Hirsch (1/2)



Peak oil : “A conspiracy to keep it quiet” in Washington, says Robert Hirsch
Interview with Robert L. Hirsch (2/2)


**QUOTE**:

How have you been dealing with what you describe as the US administration stonewalling on peak oil?

Hirsch :We kept working, that’s how we dealt with it!

But were you disappointed, appalled, or I don’t know, scared maybe?

Hirsch :I was not surprised, because if you spend some time looking at peak oil, if you’re a reasonably intelligent person, you see that catastrophic things are going to happen to the world. We’re talking about major damage, major change in our civilization. Chaos, economic disaster, wars, all kinds of things that are, as I say, very complicated, non-linear.

Really bad things. People don’t like to talk about bad things.

**/QUOTE**
 
drkitten said:
What you're ignoring is that people tend to purchase (and use) equipment based on more than a merely "significant" number.

Let's say that once every two months, I need to drive 500+ miles to visit relatives. (That's not far from the truth). Let's also say that twice a week, I need to drive 30+ miles to and from my weekly poker game, that twice a day I need to drive 10+ miles to/from work, and that four times a day I need to run some errand of two miles or less.

I'm going to buy a single vehicle with a 500+ mile range, which excludes electric cars. I can't really afford two cars, and the additional cost and hassle of renting a gasoline vehicle every two months would be more than the savings I'd incur from owning a single (electric) vehicle.

But once I've got the gasoline car, it is available for all my trips; it's easier and faster to drive the two miles to the hardware store and I have more cargo capacity available. It's also more comfortable, especially when the weather is particularly cold, or hot, or rainy.
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There seems to be an implication that because you need something (and nothing there is actually a need, they are all wants), it will appear. No amount of money can make the amount of hyrdocarbons trapped underground from millions of years ago increase in quantity.
 
a_unique_person said:
There seems to be an implication that because you need something (and nothing there is actually a need, they are all wants), it will appear.
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That tends to be how technology progresses, yes. Whatever is physically possible can be made practical if enough people want it badly enough.

No amount of money can make the amount of hyrdocarbons trapped underground from millions of years ago increase in quantity.
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No, but money can certainly make more hydrocarbons appear.
 
drkitten said:
That tends to be how technology progresses, yes. Whatever is physically possible can be made practical if enough people want it badly enough.



No, but money can certainly make more hydrocarbons appear.
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Again I think this question got buried:

Wouldn't fammine be impossible in market economies, using that reasoning?



jimbob said:
I think this got question got buried.

To me the question is whether or not there will be sufficient innovation to make alternatives to oil practical without too drastic an effect on our way of life.

Given the amount of oil use in agriculture and food distribution, I would say that this could lead to rises in the real cost of food, and food shortages.

I know that you brought up the Simon-Ehrlich wager, which I think only demonstrated a bit better knowledge of medium-term commodity price volatility by the economist.

Why a ten-year timescale? I can see for the purposes of the bet, but surely it would be more instructive to look at these from the start point until the current time.

Or more to the point why not look at the inflation-adjusted price of oil if we are discussing oil usage?


jimbob said:
jimbob said:
drkitten,

It is impossible for consumption to exceed production (including strategic reserves), but I would argue that it is possible for demand to exceed production.
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drkitten said:
Not in any meaningful sense. Unless you're talking about "demand" as meaning "how much oil people would use if it were free," in which case "demand" for anything is presumptively infinite.

In which case the demand for everything (which is infinite) exceeds the supply of anything (which is finite). Not especially meaningful or useful.
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By that logic, isn't fammine impossible?

If demand for food exceeds supply, the price would rise until the demand fell to meet the new supply?

I would argue that our current way of life requires a certain amount of oil usage, and that if supply falls below that, then there would be problems. I am not denying that some demand is elastic, but I would argue that some isn't... Or at least is not very elastic.
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'The age of cheap oil is over'

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/11/post-peak-world-oil-food-price

"Oil price volatility due to peak oil was a major factor that induced the 2008 banking crash. The collapse of the mortgage house of cards was triggered by 'post-peak' oil price shocks, which escalated costs of living and led to a cascade of debt-defaults. A study by US economist James Hamilton for the US Congress Joint Economic Committee confirmed there would have been no recession without the oil price shocks."
 
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JihadJane said:
'The age of cheap oil is over'

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/11/post-peak-world-oil-food-price

"Oil price volatility due to peak oil was a major factor that induced the 2008 banking crash. The collapse of the mortgage house of cards was triggered by 'post-peak' oil price shocks, which escalated costs of living and led to a cascade of debt-defaults. A study by US economist James Hamilton for the US Congress Joint Economic Committee confirmed there would have been no recession without the oil price shocks."
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That author just discovered how supply and demand works. Congrats!

Are you becoming a proponent of coal-to-liquid technology?
 
The faster oil prices rise, the better.

Alternatives will only be implemented when it is economic to do so.
 
Eddie Dane said:
The faster oil prices rise, the better.

Alternatives will only be implemented when it is economic to do so.
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A more likely scenario, one we have witnessed over the last few years, is that oil price spikes are followed by a price collapse because cripplingly high energy costs cause the economy to contract. The speculation bubbles pops and investment in alternatives shrinks because oil is cheap again. As soon as the economy begins to recover it comes up against rising oil prices again and the cycle repeats itself.
 
Why do glibertarians think that doing the development towards alternatives before gas costs $4/gallon again is worse than doing it only after it hits that price?
 
JihadJane said:
A more likely scenario, one we have witnessed over the last few years, is that oil price spikes are followed by a price collapse because cripplingly high energy costs cause the economy to contract. The speculation bubbles pops and investment in alternatives shrinks because oil is cheap again. As soon as the economy begins to recover it comes up against rising oil prices again and the cycle repeats itself.
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I agree with you there.

Fossil fuels are a part of nearly every economic activity. If the price of fossil fuels goes up, you get inflation because the prices of all products go up, causing the economy to contract.

We have been through this cycle in the recent past.

But that doesn't mean that we cannot react to the situation by developing alternatives. Countries will want to have alternatives ready, the next time the price spike comes around.

The Chinese and Indians will lead the way. They have the drive and the pragmatic attitude required.
I saw pictures of the new Chinese wind farms in the paper this weekend. The scale defies description.
And; They won't have to deal with the anti-nuke paranoia like us.
 
JihadJane said:
A more likely scenario, one we have witnessed over the last few years, is that oil price spikes are followed by a price collapse because cripplingly high energy costs cause the economy to contract. The speculation bubbles pops and investment in alternatives shrinks because oil is cheap again. As soon as the economy begins to recover it comes up against rising oil prices again and the cycle repeats itself.
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That remind me of an oscillatory system going around a median value.
 
daenku32 said:
Why do glibertarians think that doing the development towards alternatives before gas costs $4/gallon again is worse than doing it only after it hits that price?
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Is Glibertarian just another fancy word for Disastafari?
 
'Peak oil’s voice in Congress about to get louder'

An 18-year veteran of the House, [Roscoe] Bartlett’s seniority puts him in key positions on committees “at the fulcrum of two key debates in the 112th Congress — on climate change and on the future of the US military,” according to the Washington Post.

And that could be good news for clean energy, conservation and peak oil, issues on which the outspoken 85-year-old has championed for years and on which he has often disagreed with his fellow Republicans.
 
JihadJane said:
'Peak oil’s voice in Congress about to get louder'

An 18-year veteran of the House, [Roscoe] Bartlett’s seniority puts him in key positions on committees “at the fulcrum of two key debates in the 112th Congress — on climate change and on the future of the US military,” according to the Washington Post.

And that could be good news for clean energy, conservation and peak oil, issues on which the outspoken 85-year-old has championed for years and on which he has often disagreed with his fellow Republicans.
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Roscoe Bartlett also voted against measures to reaffirm sections of the Voting Rights Act. That's the act to prevent states and local governments from enacting means tests (including poll taxes) to limit the franchise.

He's a nut.
 
'WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%'

"The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%."
 
JihadJane said:
'WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%'

"The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%."
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Good.
 
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