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Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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komponisto said:
In other words, "we were able to come up with a narrative assuming guilt, hence the traces can't possibly have been deposited innocently".
You're bias is showing here.

I don't understand what you mean.

Of course, the whole point of the legal "presumption of innocence" is that you're not supposed to reason this way.
Explain

It is not enough to show that the facts are consistent with guilt; you must also show that they are inconsistent with innocence. See below.

But the error is in fact purely probability-theoretic in nature. Legal principles aside, it's just plain mathematically incorrect.
Show us the math please.

An observation E is evidence for a hypothesis H if E is more likely to occur assuming H than otherwise; that is if P(E|H) > P(E|~H). Massei and Cristiani argue only that P(E|H) is high, not that it is higher than P(E|~H).
 
Even if one of these three is Sollecito (and from the tone and content of the article, I don't think this is the case), we're not discussing whether or not he's a coke dealer. If he did deal coke (and, again, I don't think he did), then he should be prosecuted and convicted of this offence if it can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. But it wouldn't (and shouldn't) materially add to the issue of whether he (and Knox) were participants in the murder of Meredith Kercher - unless the prosecution were able to show that a drugs deal played a part in the murder.

I highly doubt it was Raffaele, that we would have heard of. One of the boys downstairs sound like a distinct possibility, being as they probably did supply Amanda with a 'stupefying substance' on occasion, and they'd naturally be someone Amanda might call before and after the murder. The translation I read doesn't actually say it was cocaine that the guy gave her, and just because he got busted for coke later doesn't mean that was what he was giving Amanda at the time. The idea that she actually had sex with him seems to date from the 'investigation' and was apparently merely a police 'hypothesis' and might simply reveal something about just what sorts of things the Perugian police were fantasizing about as they helped create the Sex Monster of Seattle, 'Foxy Knoxy.'

And before "some people" start to shout something along the lines of "Oh, so different standards would apply to Sollecito and Curatolo, even if both were rightfully convicted of dealing class A drugs?", well in relation to the murder charges against Sollecito and Knox, different standards most certainly would apply to Sollecito and Curatolo. If Curatolo is a key witness whose testimony might have contributed to the conviction of Sollecito (and Knox), then it's clear that his evidence must be completely untainted by suspicions of untrustworthy conduct, unreliability and/or low credibility in order for it to help convict people of murder.

As far as I'm concerned Curatolo was already overly tainted with unreliability and low credibility. I also wonder how many people we would have to set free were we to disallow the testimony of those not simon pure? There's cases I can recall where full blown violent criminals get used as testimony, sometimes against each other as 'rats' and and other times an ex-con might be the only possible witness. I don't want any murderers going free because the guy who saw them run out of the place did time in Fulsom prison for armed robbery. I'm sure the defense would press the point, and they should, but I would hope that wouldn't be the only consideration.

As much fun as I can have with a resounding word like 'smack,' the fact Curatolo might have sold heroin in 2003 doesn't discredit his testimony in my mind as much as the fact it made no sense, he claimed seeing things that couldn't have been there that night, and--most especially--that this is apparently his third murder trial. That suggests to me another thing entirely, something that most certainly damages his credibility beyond all repair.

Were he still dealing smack in 2007, that might just mean he was actually more attentive to his environment, and the time, than one would normally expect of someone in his circumstances. Also, were he really much of a 'dealer' he wouldn't be sleeping on that bench for ten years, which suggests to me that he might just have been someone's dupe, which is more in line with other things I've read about him.
 
Hi halides1. I saw that 24% figure when I was doing my (admittedly) cursory research into the issue of false confessions. However - as you note, that 24% figure refers to cases of wrongful convictions, not all convictions - or even arrests. Surely, the percentage of actualy internalized false confessions relative to all statements made to the police during criminal investigations is far lower than 24%.

I know this might be hard for some to accept, but I honestly do have a great deal of respect for the good work that the Innocence Project does. I just don't think that Knox and Sollecito merit consideration as wrongful convictions.

That's interesting, and I'm glad you said it, because that was going to be my next question for pro-guilt posters (though I still have yet to receive answers on the first few):

Given that you believe some convictions are wrongful, what kind of information would cause you to believe that a particular one was?
 
The "presumption of innocence" doesn't apply to the prosecution. They have to think she's guilty or they wouldn't be trying her.

The laws of probability theory, however, apply to everyone.

(And, as others have pointed out, Massei and Cristiani were the judges, not the prosecution.)
 
It's my understanding that both of these men made their statements after the initial trial and that's why they are not included in the report. Aviello said he wrote to the court in 2007 and 2008 but there is no evidence of it. My question is, why didn't he write to the defense?

The mafia guy contacted them multiple times before and during the trial. It didn't fit with Mignini's theory so it wasn't investigated. I'm not saying I believe the guy. However, considering the guy was saying his brother killed her, that kinda information should have been turned over to the defense.
 
luna-see

To all,

Daniel De Luna was not in Perugia after his one intimate encounter with Amanda and his witness statement said that he did not have her phone number (IIRC), so I do not see how he could be part of this strange cocaine story.
 
A quick hello.

Hi. I'm not sure if it is the tradition here on JREF to do introductions or not. I'm the moderator for the defunct (though possibly coming back to life) Church Discipline blog (not allowed to link yet): I've recently become interested in the Amanda Knox case and have been posting about it. This seems to be an active forum for conversation.

Examine the list of posters I think I know some of you from my few hours on PMF before being banned for not being part of the group think, and a few of you from elsewhere. I'll jump in on the drug dealer issue for today in a separate post. If this intro is inappropriate I'm new here, so feel free to delete.

Hello CDH, I've been reading your site off and on after it was posted here or another site, a very interesting read, especially the way you make arguments. You'll find you're not the only one here who was shown the door elsewhere in short order, although I wasn't actually 'banned' and can say my 'posting privileges' there resume sometime in late December, 2058. :p

I must admit I enjoyed your rejoinder to Seamus 'Showers' O'Riley on his 'discovery' that Michelle Moore actually wrote Steve Moore's initial piece on IIP, I was reading that and I'd facepalmed myself so badly I feared I'd sprained my wrist. How anyone can look at that one paragraph and pretend to find 'proof' that Michelle had written that piece is beyond my ability to comprehend.

We have scholars who spend years trying to prove with computer programs and broad literary knowledge whether a play belongs in Shakespeare's canon, with his entire body of work to compare it to and his unique language skills, and Statement Analysis Dude buys a book and takes an online course on a pseudo-psychological technique developed in Sweden or wherever to help with child sex abuse cases and he's 'matching' authors off one paragraph and one short piece. That's not what 'statement analysis' is supposed to 'do' anyway!

He seems like a nice enough guy, but I just had to get that off my chest somewhere. :)
 
I'm not sure how linking Amanda to a coke dealer is bad for her. The trial is over.

Meredith's boyfriend was growing and she was at least tangentially involved day of the murder (watering)
Amanda was a user
Filomena Romanelli and Laura Mezzetti seemed to be party chicks

There was a robbery of Meredith money, if it was just rent no biggie. If it was a lot of money. The prosecution's case is done based on the sex, jealousy.... angle. Drug dealers killing other drug dealers over money is like 10,000 more common then roommates of 3 weeks offing one another over sexual jealousy. Since Meredith was never investigated we don't know much about how involved she was in Giacomo Silenzi's business. I don't want to engage in rampant speculation but Giacomo was the one who early on fingered Amanda for acting weird.

I'm not sure getting drugs involved at this phase of the case is not to Amanda's benefit.

I'll be surprised if there is any substance to this story.
 
To all,

Daniel De Luna was not in Perugia after his one intimate encounter with Amanda and his witness statement said that he did not have her phone number (IIRC), so I do not see how he could be part of this strange cocaine story.

Yes I agree. I think they have Meredith confused with Amanda. After all she was dating one of the 3 guys that got busted downstairs for growing pot plants. And they mention in the story 3 guys. I could be wrong though.
 
A quick hello.

Hi. I'm not sure if it is the tradition here on JREF to do introductions or not. I'm the moderator for the defunct (though possibly coming back to life) Church Discipline blog (not allowed to link yet): I've recently become interested in the Amanda Knox case and have been posting about it. This seems to be an active forum for conversation.

Examine the list of posters I think I know some of you from my few hours on PMF before being banned for not being part of the group think, and a few of you from elsewhere. I'll jump in on the drug dealer issue for today in a separate post. If this intro is inappropriate I'm new here, so feel free to delete.

CD-Host has a very nice blog and has had several interesting posts on the Kercher case. If you get a chance check this one out about the computer information and see the comments for even more. IIRC, the man-touch quote had it's origin from CD-Host.

http://church-discipline.blogspot.com/2011/01/evidence-and-very-unlikely.html
 
I'm not sure how linking Amanda to a coke dealer is bad for her. The trial is over.

Meredith's boyfriend was growing and she was at least tangentially involved day of the murder (watering)
Amanda was a user
Filomena Romanelli and Laura Mezzetti seemed to be party chicks

There was a robbery of Meredith money, if it was just rent no biggie. If it was a lot of money. The prosecution's case is done based on the sex, jealousy.... angle. Drug dealers killing other drug dealers over money is like 10,000 more common then roommates of 3 weeks offing one another over sexual jealousy. Since Meredith was never investigated we don't know much about how involved she was in Giacomo Silenzi's business. I don't want to engage in rampant speculation but Giacomo was the one who early on fingered Amanda for acting weird.

I'm not sure getting drugs involved at this phase of the case is not to Amanda's benefit.
I've read claims that Knox herself claims to have gotten her supply of pot from Filomena. Which would make Filomena a drug dealer if its true. Funny how she got a lawyer and turned on Knox so quickly. Then to top it off, her use of drugs and supplying them to her roommates was swept under the rug because she is going to be a lawyer.
 
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The laws of probability theory, however, apply to everyone.

(And, as others have pointed out, Massei and Cristiani were the judges, not the prosecution.)

Yes, I missed that too much skimming I guess.:blush:
 
Yes, I missed that too much skimming I guess.:blush:

Yeah, I usually try to avoid the math discussion and usually skim those discussions myself. Though if they want to talk math, the probability that Knox and Sollecito were both involved in the murder is less than zero.
 
I'll be surprised if there is any substance to this story.

The insinuation seems to be that if Amanda was known to be talking to a "cocaine dealer" then she must have been doing cocaine herself - particularly the night of the murder. However, she was tested on the 6th. Cocaine stays in your urine up to 7 days for infrequent users, and up to 12 weeks for chronic users. If she had used cocaine we'd know about it already.
 
The insinuation seems to be that if Amanda was known to be talking to a "cocaine dealer" then she must have been doing cocaine herself - particularly the night of the murder. However, she was tested on the 6th. Cocaine stays in your urine up to 7 days for infrequent users, and up to 12 weeks for chronic users. If she had used cocaine we'd know about it already.

Depends on the testing levels and whether its urine or hair. If its a urine test and the fact that Knox has low body fat, your looking at 5 days max, most likely 2 to 3 days if she only did it once. Hair would be 90 days plus. Thats using drug testing you get from work. Thats also not taking into account that some painkillers can block positive tests for cocaine. Its possible to get further if you remove minimum testing positive levels.
 
Depends on the testing levels and whether its urine or hair. If its a urine test and the fact that Knox has low body fat, your looking at 5 days max, most likely 2 to 3 days if she only did it once. Hair would be 90 days plus. Thats using drug testing you get from work. Thats also not taking into account that some painkillers can block positive tests for cocaine. Its possible to get further if you remove minimum testing positive levels.

Frank's site mentioned a urine test which is why I went with those numbers.
 
I'll be surprised if there is any substance to this story.

I agree. I think someone fed them this story and there is no truth to it whatsoever. There is nobody even named in this story that you could fact check with the court records. It would obviously be a matter of public record. The fact that the names are missing makes it impossible to disprove. It could just as well be made up.
 
Frank's site mentioned a urine test which is why I went with those numbers.

I'm not saying its impossible, just that most drug tests have a min level to rule out. (false positives) I'm sure everyone has heard about the urban legend of the Army doing drug tests for thc levels from secondary smoke. They supposedly tested it on actual people to see what the highest thc level could be from a contact buzz. That way they would know for sure that anything over that level wasn't accidental. When I was in the Army this test was supposedly done in the 80's. The only experimental crap I was ever able to verify the Army did was the anthrax vaccine, and thats because I was given it. I often wondered if some of the vaccines they gave us had odd effects on some of the members from the first gulf war.

However, depending on the min levels used to determine a positive result would be the key factor in how far back a test could reach.
 
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Hello CDH, I've been reading your site off and on after it was posted here or another site, a very interesting read, especially the way you make arguments. You'll find you're not the only one here who was shown the door elsewhere in short order, although I wasn't actually 'banned' and can say my 'posting privileges' there resume sometime in late December, 2058.

Thank you for the complement regarding arguments. Do you have a site?

As far as PMF, it was really odd. You would think PMF wouldn't come on quite so strong. I was quite literally getting cursed at, before I showed up. The moderaters were like "how dare you claim to be an authority on the author's intent of stuff you wrote". It was a nutsy experience for a blog that wants to maintain itself as the premie intellectual source on this case. Disciplining churches are frequently destructive cults so I'm used to that sort of "stick your fingers in your ears and scream" reaction though more often than not I don't get that when I'm doing interviews and such. That being the case TJMK and PMF are functionally hate blogs and the tone does seem like what you would find on blogs run by Christian Identify and those sorts of groups. I did have a lengthy conversation with Peter Quinn on IMDB (yes really) so I've kinda got a feel for what they have to say which is bluster and threats and insults and .....

Anyway my current feelings about PMF is that while the site has some very good data, it is massively biased in which data. For example, I noticed that they didn't bother to translate the defense's arguments regarding the state of digestion of food in Meredith's stomach not matching the prosecution's time line. Because.... who cares if the physical evidence doesn't match the findings I guess???? So use but use with caution.

Kaosium;67669 I must admit I enjoyed your rejoinder to Seamus 'Showers' O'Riley on his 'discovery' that Michelle Moore actually wrote Steve Moore's initial piece on IIP said:
Yeah that was bad. I think Peter was just mad. His blog generally is taking cases in the early phases when the police are separating suspects from witnesses not after a complex investigation and lots of details. And his user base is all about good guys and bad guys. My experience is that there aren't good bad guys so much as everything being a situation. People get into situations and often don't handle them right. Think "trading places".

“I don’t think Raffaele killed Meredith, but I think he’s terrified like me. And now he’s trying to find a way out by distancing himself from me”; that is the language of a situation gone wrong not a cold blooded killer.
 
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