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Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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If it doesn't, then that means you're not well-calibrated. See here, particularly the following passage:

LOL. For God's sake Jim, I'm a doctor not a Bayes Theorem fan. I don't mean to put this Bayes dude down but I prefer a humanistic approach, personally. Meaning, I appreciate your posts but I would love to see you relate that to us dudes that don't watch Bayes Watch.
 
It's not about calibration, it's about two different issues. Doubt of guilt is not the same as certainty of innocence. And another slur is noted.

I missed the slur, unless you think it was an implicit "you're not well-calibrated!" (Which would be a rather mild slur, I must say.)

Okay, so tell me which of the following statements you disagree with:

(1) There are for all practical purposes only two possibilities: either they're guilty or they're not.

(2) The probabilities one assigns to mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses must sum to 100%.

(3) Therefore, if one assigns 90% probability to the hypothesis of guilt, one must assign 10% probability to the hypothesis of innocence (i.e. non-guilt).
 
It's not about calibration, it's about two different issues. Doubt of guilt is not the same as certainty of innocence. And another slur is noted.

If you spent more time noting down ideas about rational thinking and less time noting perceived "slurs" you might be better off. (Lionking takes note of perceived "slur".)

Saying "I think it is 90% probable that X is true" is just another way of saying "I think it is 10% probable that X is untrue". There is absolutely no difference between those two claims.

If you are a juror on 100 murder trials, and hand down 100 convictions, and you are 90% certain of the guilt of each person tried, then it follows that you believe it to be most likely that 90 of the 100 are guilty and 10 are innocent. That is what it means to be 90% certain.

Possibly the problem here is that when you say "I think it is 90% probable that X is true" what you really mean is "I think it is >90% probable that X is true, but I dunno what I actually think the probability is, because I dunno what I think". If so then you should say something different, such as "I believe it is 95% plus or minus 5% likely X is true".

Of course in that case you would, if you were rational and consistent, still think it most likely that 5 of the 100 people you convicted were innocent, plus or minus five.
 
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LOL. For God's sake Jim, I'm a doctor not a Bayes Theorem fan. I don't mean to put this Bayes dude down but I prefer a humanistic approach, personally. Meaning, I appreciate your posts but I would love to see you relate that to us dudes that don't watch Bayes Watch.

LOL, Rose. I'm komponisto, not Jim, first of all!

It's amusing that you're a doctor, because, well....see here! (The example, and the discussion of doctors getting it wrong.)

Bayes' theorem is about updating your beliefs upon receiving evidence. I think you've done a pretty good job of that with regard to this case, so you've already been Bayes-watching without (perhaps) even knowing it! :)
 
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If you spent more time noting down ideas about rational thinking and less time noting perceived "slurs" you might be better off. (Lionking takes note of perceived "slur".)

Saying "I think it is 90% probable that X is true" is just another way of saying "I think it is 10% probable that X is untrue". There is absolutely no difference between those two claims.

If you are a juror on 100 murder trials, and hand down 100 convictions, and you are 90% certain of the guilt of each person tried, then it follows that you believe it to be most likely that 90 of the 100 are guilty and 10 are innocent. That is what it means to be 90% certain.

Possibly the problem here is that when you say "I think it is 90% probable that X is true" what you really mean is "I think it is >90% probable that X is true, but I dunno what I actually think the probability is, because I dunno what I think". If so then you should say something different, such as "I believe it is 95% plus or minus 5% likely X is true".

Of course in that case you would, if you were rational and consistent, still think it most likely that 5 of the 100 people you convicted were innocent, plus or minus five.

Beats me. You guys can argue math and the same point I made on this a few pages backothat. What is more important here is what lionking is certain about that gives the 90% certainty of guilt. Is it so hard just to ask what that may be? I am interested in this more than boring theorems and numbers. I would really like to know.
 
Beats me. You guys can argue math and the same point I made on this a few pages backothat. What is more important here is what lionking is certain about that gives the 90% certainty of guilt. Is it so hard just to ask what that may be?

In my very first post on this forum I invited folks such as lionking to list reasons for thinking that guilt was even as much as 50% likely (let alone 90%). I still haven't got a single answer, so yes, it is apparently hard!
 
LOL, Rose. I'm komponisto, not Jim, first of all!

It's amusing that you're a doctor, because, well....see here! (The example, and the discussion of doctors getting it wrong.)

Bayes' theorem is about updating your beliefs upon receiving evidence. I think you've done a pretty good job of that with regard to this case, so you've already been Bayes-watching without (perhaps) even knowing it! :)

No doctor on my part, I was quoting Bones from Star Trek as well, kinda sorta anyway. I think lionking is an excellent poster and one who has rarely given an opinion here on the actual evidence. As the chance to take a peek into the alpha mind has now passed I would like to express my general peevishness at the lack of support in this regard.
 
A bloody palm print left at the scene of a murder is guilt beyond a reasonable doubt in the minds of most because it showed that the suspect was at the murder scene after the blood flowed.

The suspect should still be given the opportunity to give a reason his bloody print was at the scene. He should also be allowed to give an alibi (he may have been out of the country like us). Guede didn't give an alibi - he said he was there. His reason wasn't convincing. Consequently Guede was found guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

That is my idea of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt - a bloody palm print. A fingerprint isn't sufficient and a partial fingerprint certainly does NOT prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
 
Beats me. You guys can argue math and the same point I made on this a few pages backothat. What is more important here is what lionking is certain about that gives the 90% certainty of guilt. Is it so hard just to ask what that may be? I am interested in this more than boring theorems and numbers. I would really like to know.

Where did I say I'm 90% certain of guilt in this particular trial? Please stop making things up.
 
Seriously? Blood isn't that easy to wash off. It sticks. It would stick in every deformity on the blades surface. It would get in the smallest crack on the handle of the blade and would be unable to wash out without the use of chemicals that would destroy dna. There is a reason they take knives apart to check for blood. Though it seems this is one thing not done in the knox/sollecito case.

Enough running water and enough friction, you're removing the surface.
 
Where did I say I'm 90% certain of guilt in this particular trial? Please stop making things up.

Of course, and you are very careful not to put your opinion on the specifics of the evidence out there, and there is nothing wrong with that. I am interested, however. When you are ready to share?

And yes, I was hoping you would give us an actual opinion as to why you believe Raffaele is guilty. What evidence are you certain about and what evidence is still in doubt in your mind?
 
It doesn't need to make sense. Sticking knifes in other peoples bodies doesn't make sense either, yet it happens every single day. So what makes sense to you is a pretty poor yard-stick to evaluate a case like this.

Two fundamental reasoning errors here.

Firstly, people sticking knives into each other does make sense, in the only sense that matters. It's a known and far from uncommon human behaviour. Any rational and informed person is going to expect people to threaten other people with knives thousands of times per day, and to murder other people with knives tens of times per day at least.

Secondly, a rational person estimates all of these probabilities in light of the known facts, specifically that Meredith Kercher was found murdered with a knife.

Given the known facts, what are the odds someone murdered Meredith Kercher with a knife? 99.9...9%. The only other alternatives are incredibly unlikely.

What are the odds that Amanda Knox carried around a kitchen knife in her bag to defend herself? Massei's proposition was that the odds of this were >51% just because Raffaele was into knives, but that doesn't survive even a moment's scrutiny. What percentage of young women whose boyfriends are into knives carry a kitchen knife in their bag? I'd guess <1%.

What are the odds that a young woman, her boyfriend of six days, and a local crook she had met once at a party and seen once at her place of work would team up to molest and murder one of the young woman's friends? Well, it's hard to estimate seeing as it has only ever happened once in the history of the world if it ever happened at all, but it's got to be <1% until some more evidence of guilt comes in.

What are the odds that Raffaele could participate in a three-way sexual assault and murder, get his DNA on the metal hook of the bra clasp and on absolutely nothing else, no part of Meredith and nothing in the room? I don't know. Murderers have left no DNA trace in the past, but it's not usual. Say <50% to be really generous.

What are the odds Amanda could participate and get her DNA on nothing except the handle of the knife she supposedly carried around with her, and then leave her DNA on the handle while removing all but a picogram trace of Meredith's? I don't know either, but I think this is even more unlikely.

So we're chaining together a whole bunch of suppositions, none of which make any sense or even rise to the level of being more likely than not... where is the good evidence that's going to make a rational person buy this chain of absurdities?

It's incredibly telling that no pro-guilt poster whatsoever will even try to answer this question. They have no coherent theory of the crime, and they don't even have any coherent idea what evidence convinces them of Knox and Sollecito's guilt!

How you can believe X to be true yet be able to give no sensible account whatsoever for why you believe X to be true, and still consider oneself a skeptic, baffles me.
 
So one juror hands down convictions now? And you keep banging on about rationality.

Is there some kind of "least compelling gotcha attempt of the month" award you are hoping to win?

Because if you are I'm sorry, but I'm pretty sure Treehorn sewed it up with his "Amanda hung out with Rudy three or four times" business.
 
Never left Ra's draer?
Whee did you get that?
No evidence of a faked break in, no evidence of anyone besides Rudy.

Must be nice to live in your world.


It takes a little longer to live in our world, because a lot of the words have more letters.
 
Enough running water and enough friction, you're removing the surface.

You can put that knife in an industrial dishwasher by itself. Without the use of chemicals it would still test positive for blood. Yet to remove all traces you literally have to disassemble the entire knife. Washing it in the sink and then putting it in a drawer with the rest of the knives wont do it.
 
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Quite so; so would I, and soak it in a solution of so-called "bio" laundry detergent or meat tenderizer @ 40, followed by a 30% hypochlorite solution.

Actually, if I had a tainted knife eg I had seen my child using it to cut up dog poop, I'd chuck it.


I would, too. So why don't you think Amanda and Raffaele would do the same?
 
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