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Will the internet survive energy contraction?

Aren't you a follower of the "Grand Archdruid" though?

No I am not.


I agree with this assessment. Greer is a lot more rational than TFian has been portraying him here. For one thing, I can't seem to find any mention of desirability of racial purity in anything Greer has written, and from what I've read of what he has written, I strongly suspect he would find the notion abhorrent, as well as utterly counterproductive to his community-building cause. Greer does write about "magic" but he appears to be using the term metaphorically to refer to the persuasive power of persuasive speech (in all forms including slogans and rituals; by "spell" he invariably seems to mean "slogan.") In any case, nothing supernatural is implied.

He is wrong about some things, though. His writings on the Internet, for instance, indicate that he has very vague and mistaken notions about what the Internet actually is and how it works. He speaks, for instance, of the power requirements of Yahoo's server banks as if they were somehow a necessary component of keeping the Internet running, instead of just a particularly large exploiter of that particular commons. In this light the conclusions he reached about the cost versus benefits of "the Internet" in an energy-scarce scenario are understandable. Dead wrong, but not totally insane, just (mostly) technically uninformed on this particular issue. (Which is a shame, because if it were possible to correct his understanding of what the Internet actually is, he might instead come to see it as a good example of exactly the kind of decentralized and resilient system he's in favor of.)

Overall, I don't think Greer would be particularly pleased about how his ideas and arguments have been represented in this thread.

(Perhaps not surprisingly, some of Greer's most vocal critics are competing energy-contraction movements and philosophies. The discussion, though, is far more rational and articulate, and far less misanthropic or hateful, than one might expect based on what's been offered here.)

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
Greer is a lot more rational than TFian has been portraying him here.

To be fair, TFian hasn't really (at least not seemingly deliberately) portraying Greer as anything outside his belief that the Internet will cease to exist after "peak oil". He/she hasn't said "Greer says they aren't racially pure", or "Greer says we all need to die for "Gaia" or whatever." In fact, her/his thinking seem much closer to Derrick Jensen or John Zerzan (who are both certifiably insane btw). I'll agree, Greer is a lot more rational, but that's really because TFian just genuinely seems insane. He/she seems to be suffering from some sort of psychosis.

For one thing, I can't seem to find any mention of desirability of racial purity in anything Greer has written, and from what I've read of what he has written, I strongly suspect he would find the notion abhorrent, as well as utterly counterproductive to his community-building cause.

That's probably true, but I found this little nugget.

and Mexico is going to take back the American west within a couple of generations by sheer demographic pressure, so they have everything to gain by being patient and letting us crash and burn. "Poor Mexico," Porfirio Diaz once said: "So far from God, so close to the United States." In another century or so the tables are likely to have turned.

Most certainly not "racial purity" nonsense, but still fairly xenophobic. And worst of all, just flat out wrong. source http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot....showComment=1265349038867#c735328529139306729

Greer does write about "magic" but he appears to be using the term metaphorically to refer to the persuasive power of persuasive speech (in all forms including slogans and rituals; by "spell" he invariably seems to mean "slogan.") In any case, nothing supernatural is implied.

Well, again, there's what he said here
The interesting thing is that nobody ever actually proved scientifically that magic doesn't work, that spirits and gods don't exist, or any of the other things paraded as definite fact by the publicists of modern science. You can test magic by experiment...but the experiments weren't done. The promoters of the Scientific Revolution simply insisted loudly and repeatedly that magic had to be impossible, and that was that. When Rupert Sheldrake did a few experiments on nonphysical causation a few years back and published the results, the editors of the very prestigious British science magazine _Nature_ called for his book to be burnt. Sheldrake committed what, in scientific terms, is the ultimate sin: he'd subjected the basic assumptions of science itself to experimental test, and showed that they don't hold water.

It's often argued that the ideology of science must be true, because technology works. By the same logic, the earth must be the center of the universe, because navigators in the days before Copernicus were able to use earth-centered astronomy to navigate by the stars. Scientists basically take the things that happen to work and cobble together theories to fit them -- that's the scientific method. Of course modern science has a very good working model of how some kinds of matter function, but it's radically incomplete because it leaves out so much.

It seems like he believes in it from some supernatural standpoint to me, but I can't be sure. His writings on anything outside peak oil are vague, almost seemingly purposefully vague. To me, that also would indicate he has an actual "supernatural" belief in magic, and just keeps quiet on it knowing he'd be mocked and ignored by most of the "peak oil" community if he regularly expressed such views. Source http://www.twpt.com/johnmichaelgreer.htm

He is wrong about some things, though. His writings on the Internet, for instance, indicate that he has very vague and mistaken notions about what the Internet actually is and how it works. He speaks, for instance, of the power requirements of Yahoo's server banks as if they were somehow a necessary component of keeping the Internet running, instead of just a particularly large exploiter of that particular commons. In this light the conclusions he reached about the cost versus benefits of "the Internet" in an energy-scarce scenario are understandable. Dead wrong, but not totally insane, just (mostly) technically uninformed on this particular issue.

Not only that, but he even realizes there's a low powered resilient form of Internet possible, through packet radio. He seems to brush it off as something that'll be actually practiced under the guise that no one is actively working towards it. Which isn't true actually, there's a group now (Noisebridge hackerspace) that's working on a packet radio Internet to span North America. That's another problem I have with Greer, he seems to be under the general mistaken idea that no one is really working towards adapting towards a low energy carbon neutral future infrastructure, which just isn't true.

He also has a fundamental lack of knowledge regarding physics, and his argument that it's physically impossible to run an industrial civilization absent of abundant hydrocarbons, is incorrect. (and the articles displaying it were of course ignored by TFian)

(Which is a shame, because if it were possible to correct his understanding of what the Internet actually is, he might instead come to see it as a good example of exactly the kind of decentralized and resilient system he's in favor of.)

I agree. Not only on the Internet though. If he could realize say, you can make a tractor out of scrap parts for a relatively cheap price, and run it on local non petroleum energy sources like the folks at Open Source Ecology are doing, and encouraged his student "Green Wizards" to learn how to make a computer out of dissembled electronic parts, I think his "Green Wizard" project would have a lot more going for it. In general, he just has a complete lack of knowledge of how anything past 1970s appropriate technology works, and how a lot of it can be bootstrapped to work with very low energy outputs (laptop powered handcrank that is durable is all you need for the informational benefits of a computer) I think his advice is just generally counterproductive, because I think in any energy scarce society, the people with knowhow on more advanced technology will be the winners, since they can downsize it to fit energy scarce requirements. I'll agree with him on one thing fairly strongly, that a better path in the future is a "dissenus" approach, rather than a consensus approach. I think the real problem with his thinking though, is he doesn't realize that's what's already happening, especially on energy. Renewables like Solar/Wind, Nuclear, Algae, Biomass, and etc., are being approached at all levels, governments, corporations, universities, independent scientist teams, independent citizen scientists, and so forth. I think he'd change quite a bit of his narrative if he realized this.

(Perhaps not surprisingly, some of Greer's most vocal critics are competing energy-contraction movements and philosophies. The discussion, though, is far more rational and articulate, and far less misanthropic or hateful, than one might expect based on what's been offered here.)

Well to be fair, the whole transition town vs Greer thing was pretty much started by Greer, who baited Rob Hopkins to post a critique of him, possibly to gain attention for his "Green Wizards" website, which apparently worked. But your point stands, the article you linked is WAY more rational (thanks for that, it was quite informative) than anything TFian spouts, and she/he has done a disservice to Greer, by associating him with well, whatever TFian is.
 
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Thanks, Myriad & Garrison, for clarifying the Greer situation. I had indeed (apparently falsely) assumed he was the source of TFian's nonsensical approach, and therefore a crank. This was unfair.

I suspect we disagree on many things, but if he wanted to show up here and talk numbers I'd be happy to engage with him.
 
Thanks, Myriad & Garrison, for clarifying the Greer situation. I had indeed (apparently falsely) assumed he was the source of TFian's nonsensical approach, and therefore a crank. This was unfair.

I suspect we disagree on many things, but if he wanted to show up here and talk numbers I'd be happy to engage with him.

I agree. I too simply jumbled him into the same camp with TFian, which wasn't fair. After reading his articles and other comments for the past few days, while I still seriously disagree with a lot of what he says, he's not anything like TFian is. He seems capable of reasoned debate for one, unlike TFian...
 
To be fair, TFian hasn't really (at least not seemingly deliberately) portraying Greer as anything outside his belief that the Internet will cease to exist after "peak oil".

Bingo, my views are my views, and mine only. While I have some significant overlap with the Grand Archdruid, I disagree with him vehemently on many issues. Particularly, he doesn't seem to factor in racial purity into any of his analysis, and the racial slop our civilization has become, nor does he realize the organizing that would happen would be on racial lines, such as the Mexicans and blacks organizing themselves, outnumbering the whites. He does realize Mexicans will reconquer Mexico though, so there's some hope there...

He's also came up with great academic theories, like his theory of "Catabolic collapse", which you can find here http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=189281

I also disagree with him on the length of collapse. I think it's going to be sudden, and I'm much closer to the thinking of Professor Emertius Guy R McPherson on this issue, and Derrick Jensen who has influenced me a lot.

But anyway, don't assume my views are automatically John Greer's views.
 
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On a side note, why is it the case that those people most concerned with racial purity tend to be the worst representatives of their own race?
 
Bingo, my views are my views, and mine only. While I have some significant overlap with the Grand Archdruid, I disagree with him vehemently on many issues. Particularly, he doesn't seem to factor in racial purity into any of his analysis, and the racial slop our civilization has become, nor does he realize the organizing that would happen would be on racial lines, such as the Mexicans and blacks organizing themselves, outnumbering the whites. He does realize Mexicans will reconquer Mexico though, so there's some hope there...

Off topic, but I felt like addressing this.

The whole Mexican "reconquista" or whatever is nothing but paranoid delusions from white nationalists and really stupid conservatives. I've lived my entire life in Southern California, and went to school with a largely Mexican population, and I can say with good certainty that idea is preposterous.

I also disagree with him on the length of collapse. I think it's going to be sudden, and I'm much closer to the thinking of Professor Emertius Guy R McPherson on this issue, and Derrick Jensen who has influenced me a lot.

Two completely insane people. It's a shame TFian you listen to these cranks, because despite everything you've said and displayed, you still seem like someone who really could be productive if you really set your mind to it, but you waste it on people who seem to share your tenuous grasp of sanity.
 
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So, TFian, have you found a better source for Hydro as a % of global electricity? Or are you willing to accept 20% as a rough estimate?
 

I'm inclined to (somewhat) agree. I don't think he's as crankish as TFian, but he clearly holds some really crazy beliefs. He's also completely wrong on most things regarding technology and physics. He's also evidently fairly new age, (but as myraid pointed out, his belief in "magic" may just be metaphorical..) and is a leader of a religion of well..new agers. Still, he at least seems more reasonable than TFian.
 
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It's true. Just like me disagreeing with you doesn't make you a racist. It's your racism that makes you a racist. Me disagreeing with you just makes me not a racist.

Hey, I'm just a patriot for my race who's concerned about the current state of it.
 
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Pen, paper, and physical transport of written communications are much less energy and resource efficient.

How does that follow?

Okay, well if the point is not about perishables, then perhaps talking about salad in relation to cost issues of bulk shipping of goods does not usefully add to the conversation. I'm not sure why you keep bringing it up.

Because the cost will still be exorbitant to ship things.

As I mentioned before, some perishable foods can be made less perishable by irradiation. This also goes a long way toward replacing refrigeration without compromising food safety. I expect you'll be completely in favor of that, right? Think of the children.

Which children? And I support irradiation of course.

A small multiple of the current cost, as I said. Probably about 2.5x. Certainly more affordable, safer, more convenient, and more effective than using candles or whale oil.

Candles can be locally produced though, computers can not.

Because candle wax (of any variety) is fuel, a scarce resource in your scenario.

Candle wax is not a fuel though, and is abundant.

You can burn it to get a little bit of flickery yellow light from a candle flame for a short time, or you can use it to manufacture a hand-cranked dynamo, some capacitors, and some LEDs and get available steady white light for a long time.

LEDs are energy intensive.

(First paper, now candles... you have some very environmentally extravagant and wasteful proclivities. Next thing you'll be wanting to ride horses instead of using a bicycle.)

I believe in using horses to revive public transit like in Ireland yes, and for agriculture.

Is that question serious? You're asking how technologies that preserve knowledge help preserve knowledge?

Yes.

In science and medicine, no I'm not. Fortunately they held onto some of the knowledge they got from the Greeks and other conquered subjects, and even allowed some progress in mathematics to continue (mostly in Alexandria).

Are you saying the Greeks made more accomplishments in science and medicine than the Romans?

Except for some surgical knowledge (stemming bleeding, setting broken bones and so forth) acquired by experience on the battlefield, Roman medicine was as worthless as any other medicine of the time (or for millennia after).

When do you find medicine to be worthwhile then? Or what era did it start.

Resource exhaustion in the environmental sense remains an unproven and unlikely hypothesis as an explanation for the fall of Rome.

Why do you say that?

There are no monks anymore? That's strange, I could swear that there are some I talk to and visit several times per week on matters of mutual interest, who have in fact taken vows of poverty and whose sole mission in life is to help the needy.

True, there's some from other cultures like Slavic cultures, but no American class committed to a vow of poverty and preservation of knowledge.

So, what "massive infrastructure" is required?

Libraries, massive Internet infrastructure, DVDs, audio tapes, satellite dishes, etc.

So, if they really want that Dark Age, those Druidic book-burning chip-burning death squads are going to have to work hard for it. Good luck finding all the copies. Us knowledge-loving hermit monks learned not to put all our eggs in one basket, back in Alexandria.

Druids are pro knowledge preservation by nature, they would never form death squads to destroy knowledge.
 
How does that follow?

You're wrong; we showed you the numbers already.

Because the cost will still be exorbitant to ship things.

You're wrong, we showed you the numbers already.

Candles can be locally produced though, computers can not.

Who cares? I showed you the shipping numbers already. Computers can be produced centrally and in a comically expensive all-renewable worst-case scenario sail-and-horse-courier shipping adventure the shipping adds 10% to the cost point to point.

LEDs are energy intensive.

NO THEY'RE NOT. LEDs are energy efficient even compared with candles, and that includes manufacturing and shipping.
 
You're wrong; we showed you the numbers already.

No they didn't.

You're wrong, we showed you the numbers already.

No they didn't.

Who cares? I showed you the shipping numbers already. Computers can be produced centrally and in a comically expensive all-renewable worst-case scenario sail-and-horse-courier shipping adventure the shipping adds 10% to the cost point to point.

No, no you didn't. You just kept falling back on the "logic of abundance", as the Grand Archdruid puts it. Anything that can't be produced locally will have to be given up as shipping is too expensive, well, for the common man at least.

NO THEY'RE NOT. LEDs are energy efficient even compared with candles, and that includes manufacturing and shipping.

YES THEY ARE. LEDs require electricity, candles don't. Win for candles. Candles are only more expensive now because of labor costs. In an energy scarce setting, human labor will be abundant, and cheap if you have slaves available. :D
 
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