CME's, active regions and high energy flares

[GeeMack]

Yes, that is a *HUGE LIE*.

Reread the definition of a magnetic rope GM:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bennett_pinch

There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs. According to the reference you cited above, magnetic reconnection is responsible for solar flares. Since it's your reference, I'm sure you agree. Thanks for the link.

Liar. Whether it's willful ignorance, or just ignorance, it's still a lie.

And again you call me a liar without being able to support it. Seems that's getting to be quite a habit with you. If someone questioned Birkeland's claims do you suppose he called them liars? If someone asked Alfvén to support his claims do you think he tried his best to support them, or do you think he called those people liars?

How about instead of you calling me a liar, you know, without being able to point out where I've lied, how about you start to support your claims? This thread is over 900 posts long now, and you still haven't described your quantitative objective method for "predicting" CMEs. So describe it or abandoned your claim of having one like an honest scientist would do. You still haven't supported your claim that dark filaments cause CMEs. Support the claim or abandoned it like an honest scientist would.

 

[Halfcentaur]

2-3 events happen within a 24 hour period daily, and guessing when one of those events will happen within a 3 hour window is remarkable? There are only 4 times that window in the day, so it's a 1 in 4 chance to guess, even at a very rudimentary glance at the odds?

 

[Michael Mozina]

There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs

http://www.catastrophism.com/texts/bruce/era.htm

It doesn't matter how many times you repeat the same lie, it will continue to be a lie.

 

[Michael Mozina]

2-3 events happen within a 24 hour period daily, and guessing when one of those events will happen within a 3 hour window is remarkable? There are only 4 times that window in the day, so it's a 1 in 4 chance to guess, even at a very rudimentary glance at the odds?

Hey, welcome to the discussion HC. Last time we spoke you not only changed my opinion on the topic in question, you actually changed my vote. Not that it did you any good mind you.

Maybe I can return the favor.

Have you read through the whole thread, or just getting your feet wet?

The number of flares per day depends on the day, and it depends on the part of the solar cycle that we happen to be talking about. There is in fact a "cause/effect' relationship between filament eruptions and flares/CME's. What I've started to do is identify the dark filaments that are likely to erupt and describe the quantification process, starting with the categorization process.

Again, welcome to the conversation. I look forward to our discussion.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Ok, they are late today.

Ok, today's DF predictions are late today, but hey, it's Saturday.

DF000001 remains unchanged in terms of it's category and/or percentages. The remnants of DF000002 can be seen going over the horizon near active region 1123. What's left of that filament would fall into the category of "SF-1A-HS" (Small Filament - 1 Active region connection - High in the atmosphere, slow "floating" sort of filament). As such, it has about 30 percent chance of a full eruption and about a 50 percent chance of at least a partial eruption. I won't bother to include that region tomorrow's predictions since I won't be able to track it properly without SDO. I can wing it I suppose with STEREO, but it won't be facing our way anyway, so I'll stick with the NOAA format.

FYI, there are some other "minor" dark filaments, but I won't bother including them since they are small or not likely to erupt over the next 24 (actually 20) hours.

 

[tusenfem]

Pinches occur naturally in electrical discharges such as lightning bolts,[6] the aurora,[7] current sheets,[8] and solar flares.[9]

This is just sloppy writing on the wiki page.
This needs to be read as:
Pinches occur naturally in electrical discharges such as lightning bolts,[6]
in the aurora,[7] in current sheets,[8] and in solar flares.[9]

The latter three are not examples of electric discharges.

 

[GeeMack]

http://www.catastrophism.com/texts/bruce/era.htm

It doesn't matter how many times you repeat the same lie, it will continue to be a lie.

There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs. If you are going to call me a liar for saying that, you will need to prove that there are electrical discharges in the conducting medium of a plasma. That will require a pretty complete rewrite of the physics of electricity and/or plasma. But go ahead. Don't forget to make your paper thorough, objective, and quantitative. Include all the relevant math, you know, calculations with real numbers. If you can't do that, your accusation that I am lying will be dealt with as the uncivil personal attack that it appears to be.

Meantime, you have made several claims in this thread which remain unsupported. How about you either properly support them scientifically, quantitatively, and objectively, or have the honesty to admit that you can't. Begin with the first claim, please...

• You have a quantitative objective method for "predicting" CMEs.
• Dark filament eruptions cause CMEs.
• There is no transition region in the Sun's atmosphere.
• Magnetic reconnection doesn't happen.
• Birkeland "predicted" solar wind and proposed it was caused by simple electricity.
• Birkeland developed a solar model that mathematically explained the Sun's density, material makeup, thermal characteristics, luminosity, and mechanical function.
• The folks who designed, built, launched, and operate the various solar satellites including GOES, Yohkoh, SOHO, Trace, RHESSI, STEREO, SDO, etc., don't understand solar physics as well as you do.

 

[GeeMack]

Pinches occur naturally in electrical discharges such as lightning bolts,[6] the aurora,[7] current sheets,[8] and solar flares.[9]

This is just sloppy writing on the wiki page.
This needs to be read as:
Pinches occur naturally in electrical discharges such as lightning bolts,[6]
in the aurora,[7] in current sheets,[8] and in solar flares.[9]

The latter three are not examples of electric discharges.

It is poorly written. I read it as...

Pinches occur naturally in (electrical discharges such as lightning bolts,[6]) (the aurora,[7]) (current sheets,[8]) (and solar flares.[9])​

And to remind Michael again, according to the reference cited above, magnetic reconnection is responsible for solar flares. There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs.

 

[Reality Check]

You did not answer my question. Let me ask you again with the emphasis highlighted for you.

How is his approach to a magnetic rope any different from the one I'm using other than what he calls it?

His approach to a magentic rope is scientific.

Your (induction/current) approach to a magnetic rope is

1. physically impossible
2. nothing to to with his approach.

You did not answer my questions. Let me ask you again with the emphasis highlighted for you.
Michael Mozina, Please give your citations for solar Birkeland currents (22 October 2010) Will Michael Mozina ever retract his libelous statements about SolarMonitor? (10 November 2010: 12 days and counting)

 

[Reality Check]

Been there and done that already. It's "tested" by running two "circuits" of current carrying plasma filaments into one another and we can watch the "circuit topology" change over time. That's "circuit reconnection" and has nothing to do with magnetic lines disconnecting or reconnecting to other magnetic lines.

Been there and done that already.
It is everything to do with magnetic reconenction.
To this very day, we collectively have explained that "induction and/or ordinary particle collisions in a current sheet" cannot create magnetic reconnection. See the many posts in Magnetic reconnection and physical processes, e.g.

• Magnetic Reconnection Redux XIII
• Magnetic Reconnection Redux VII
• Comments on Magnetic Reconnection
• Comments on Magnetic Reconnection III
• Magnetic Reconnection Redux XI

Alfven describes these magnetic ropes as *CURRENT CARRYING CIRCUITS*.

Wrong:
Alfven used the *CURRENT CARRYING CIRCUIT* methodolgy to describe solar flares.
Read what you quoted before - he explictly uses the word *CURRENTS* as the cause of magnetic ropes

Circuits disconnect and reconnect all the time in nature.

At last you not too wrong .
If we replace "circuits" with "currents" then you are trivially correct - currents do connect and reconnect all the time in nature.

A pity that you cannot grasp the simple fact that this is not seen to happen in magnetic reconnection.

 

[Reality Check]

Electrical discharges are physically impossible on the Sun

And to remind Michael again, according to the reference cited above, magnetic reconnection is responsible for solar flares. There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs.

And to remind Michael Mozina yet again of some basic physics:
Electrical discharges are created by the breakdown of a dielectric (insulating) medium.
There are no dielectric (insulating) mediums on the Sun. Plasmas are highly conductive.
Thus electrical discharges are physically impossible on the Sun.

It would take someone truly ignorant of physics to think otherwise.

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://www.solarmonitor.org/region_pop.php?date=20101124&type=bbso_halph&region=11127

FYI, 1127 has a dark filament attached to it that erupted UP and DOWN again yesterday (23rd UT). The filament pretty much runs directly through the active region. It's possible to observe the flow of material through the filament in the SDO images, particularly near the center of the active region when it "brightens" and hot plasma flows down filament. We'll call that DF000003.

To left of DF000003 is another dark filament of interest that is relatively long and meanders towards the 10:00 position. We'll call that DF000004.

DF000003 is classified as MF-1A-LF. I already flared up and down again yesterday and there is all sorts of brightening going on, particularly inside the active region portion. DF000004 is classified as LF-0A-LS and looks to be pretty boring actually.

SDO 23MB 304 image from the 22nd:

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/dailymov/2010/11/22/20101122_1024_0304.mpg

 

[Michael Mozina]

There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs.

http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1946Obs....66..263B
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1969SoPh....7..377C
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?1988Ap&SS.144...73C
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...T&data_type=HTML&format=&high=42ca922c9c03905
http://www.chjaa.org/2005/2005_5_1p57.pdf

On what basis do you make this claim? (Please don't tell me it's *ONE* paper you saw on WIKI)

 

[Reality Check]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt
roduct: 3-day Space Weather Predictions daypre.txt
:Issued: 2010 Nov 23 2200 UTC
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 1 1 1
Class_X 1 1 1
Proton 1 1 1
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2010 Nov 24
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2010 Nov 23
1127 10 1 1 1

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://www.catastrophism.com/texts/bruce/bruce-1960.htm
http://www.catastrophism.com/texts/bruce/cosmic.htm

 

[Reality Check]

http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1946Obs....66..263B
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1969SoPh....7..377C
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?1988Ap&SS.144...73C
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...T&data_type=HTML&format=&high=42ca922c9c03905
http://www.chjaa.org/2005/2005_5_1p57.pdf

On what basis do you make this claim? (Please don't tell me it's *ONE* paper you saw on WIKI)

I can answer that: The definition of elecrical discharge that you are obviously ignorant of.


Your citations reveal that you are incapable of understanding what you read:

• A 1946 paper by C.E.R. Bruce.
  
  His invalid model has been discussed a few times in the forum. He had a physically impossible solar model of dust particles causing "lightning strikes" that are solar prominences
  • There is no dust at the temperature of the Sun.
  • There is no dielectric medium to breakdown.
  • Electrical discharges emit narrow band X-rays that have never been observed from the Sun.
• Current Limitation and Solar Flares by Carlqvist, P.
  currents - not electrical discharges
• Cosmic electric currents and the generalized Bennett relation by Carlqvist, P.
  currents - not electrical discharges
• Polarization in Gamma-Ray Bursts Produced by Pinch Discharge by Wu, Mei; Chen, Li; Li, Ti-Pei
  This paper is about gamma ray bursts not solar activity.

 

[GeeMack]

On what basis do you make this claim? (Please don't tell me it's *ONE* paper you saw on WIKI)

An electrical discharge occurs when there is a failure in an electrical circuit or a breakdown of an insulator. The solar atmosphere is plasma, a conducting medium. There is no insulating medium to breakdown. There is no discharge. Of course your habit of dishonestly attempting to deflect the burden of proof is again noted. You've made a claim, it's your job to support it.

So as I already said before your dishonest attempt to shirk your responsibility, there is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs. If you believe otherwise, you will need to prove that there are electrical discharges in the conducting medium of a plasma. That will require a complete rewrite of the physics of electricity and/or plasma. Don't forget to make your paper thorough, objective, and quantitative. Include all the relevant math, you know, calculations with real numbers.

And if you can't support your claim, how about you display the kind of honesty a real scientist might show and admit that you can't. Would Birkeland have pussied out if he wasn't able to support a claim? If Alfvén made a claim and wasn't unable to support it, would he have mouthed off then slinked away? Or would they have just admitted that they were unable to support the claims?

 

[Perpetual Student]

If you believe otherwise, you will need to prove that there are electrical discharges in the conducting medium of a plasma. That will require a complete rewrite of the physics of electricity and/or plasma. Don't forget to make your paper thorough, objective, and quantitative. Include all the relevant math, you know, calculations with real numbers.

OK, we can plan another trip to Oslo. This is great! I can't wait to boast to all my friends that I actually conversed with this guy on this forum. Who could have known?

 

[Michael Mozina]

Of course your habit of dishonestly attempting to deflect the burden of proof is again noted. You've made a claim, it's your job to support it.

Excuse me? This was *YOUR* claim:

There is no electrical discharge processes involved in solar filament eruptions and CMEs.

I have provided you with direct evidence (math and everything) on this topic. What evidence do you have that Bruce was wrong, Carlqvist was wrong, Alfven was wrong, Birkeland was wrong, etc? How are you *CERTAIN* that *NO ELECTRICAL DISCHARGES PROCESSES* are involved in flares? According to Alfven the filament itself is a CURRENT CARRYING FILAMENT and part of a CIRCUIT that ERUPTS.

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://www.springerlink.com/content/n2n3151r56j623gr/
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1958IAUS....6..135D