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Will the internet survive energy contraction?

How isn't it?

Because a hydro dam isn't a person? Because the problems with doing invasive heart surgery on yourself: the pain, the fact that you can't see very well what you're doing, the fact that your arms would have to bend at odd angles, etc. etc. do not apply to using the energy produced by a hydro plant to power the required repairs.

Which of the problems of doing invasive heart surgery on yourself do you think transfer over to using the energy produced by a hydro plant to do the repairs?
 
How do you know that? Have you actually looked at the numbers, or did you just make an assumption?

I remember reading it in a point by point study of energy comparison. I don't remember where though.
 
Well it's kind of like doing invasive heart surgery to oneself, doesn't it?

And yet hydro plants do it all the time. You have a valve in front of turbine A and a valve in front of turbine B. You can keep A running while you repair B. This is totally standard stuff, TFian.

Nuclear power plants work the same way. You have several reactor cores and several turbines. You shut down core A to repair it without shutting down B. This is not just standard, it's mandatory---that's part of how you deal with a simultaneous reactor accident + local blackout; if Core A shuts down for some reason, it's important that Core B to run the safety, firefighting, etc., subsystems whether or not there is grid power. (And nowadays, in case they both fail there's a backup gas generator.)

Anyway, more moving goalposts. So now you think that power lines are the keystone technology that we won't be able to build and maintain? You overestimated (if one can even call it "estimation") the cost of shipping small computers by sail and horseback. You overestimated the difficulty of building a hydro plant. You overestimated the cost of pedal-power ("no one will be able to afford one joule", remember that?) Why should we trust your intuition on the embodied energy of power lines? Again, you're always erring in the same direction: "My agrarianist assumption has to be right, so I had better shoot down SOMETHING to get this darn electricity to turn off."
 
It is circular reasoning. I explained why. You are attempting to argue that communications will decline because society will become feudal. But feudalism is an adaptation to lack of communications. If communications do not decline there is no reason for anyone at any level of any social hierarchy to prefer feudalism. So feudalism could conceivably be the result of such a decline in communications, but there is no basis for claiming that it would cause it.

But communications will decline. Pen and paper will become the new "normal".

Well, salad is a really good metaphor if what you're talking about is the importance of high travel speed, refrigeration, and other energy-demanding requirements in the transportation of rapidly perishable goods. Is that what you're talking about? How much of today's global shipping is rapidly perishable and/or requires refrigerated transport? Are computers, modems, dynamos, or LEDs in that category?

No, they are not perishable, but the point isn't about perishables, it's the expense to ship those products around the world. Of course perishable goods are even worse in that regard, but non perishables count as well.

Same ways we produce them today, just with different energy sources and correspondingly greater cost (some small multiplier of the present cost).

But how much will this "Greater" cost be?


Given that LEDs and dynamos would supply a need that once required men to go on multi-year sea voyages at enormous risk and expense to supply, the cost of manufacturing dynamos and LEDs using renewable energy sources is likely to remain comparatively negligible.

Why wouldn't we just use candle wax?

Moveable type and flash RAM.

Too bad the Romans didn't have those.

How would that be helpful?


Or maybe not -- most of their medical and scientific knowledge was wrong anyhow.

I think you're underestimating how much the Romans accomplished.

So they never got to antibiotics, or practical steam power, or electricity, or optics, or radio, or anesthetics, or computers, or nuclear reactors, or genes.

And yet, they still exhausted their resource base which led to their collapse. Interesting..

But it wouldn't exactly leave us depending on interpreting bird omens (one of the "sciences" that the Romans were apparently quite proficient in, whose secrets were unfortunately lost when the empire fell) either.

Respectfully,
Myriad

Maybe not, but it's not likely without massive infrastructure to retain our medical and scientific knowledge. Maybe if we had a class of hermit monks who took vows of poverty and sole mission in life was to retain that knowledge. But we don't have that anymore...
 
Because a hydro dam isn't a person? Because the problems with doing invasive heart surgery on yourself: the pain, the fact that you can't see very well what you're doing, the fact that your arms would have to bend at odd angles, etc. etc. do not apply to using the energy produced by a hydro plant to power the required repairs.

Which of the problems of doing invasive heart surgery on yourself do you think transfer over to using the energy produced by a hydro plant to do the repairs?

Well the principle is, you don't use needed energy on a structure that is producing that very energy, now do you?

Also, that kind of misses the point. How will you find the energy to build this hydro electric plant if you don't have that hydro electric power to begin with?
 
And yet hydro plants do it all the time. You have a valve in front of turbine A and a valve in front of turbine B. You can keep A running while you repair B. This is totally standard stuff, TFian.

That's not what I was describing.

Anyway, more moving goalposts. So now you think that power lines are the keystone technology that we won't be able to build and maintain?

I always have.

You overestimated (if one can even call it "estimation") the cost of shipping small computers by sail and horseback.

No I did not. I'm asking where the energy will come from to mass produce computers without fossil fuels.

You overestimated the difficulty of building a hydro plant.

Since constructing a hydro electric plant is a monumental undertaking, I have not. I don't see why people would waste time and energy that could be used to feed them just so they can have the energy to go into chatrooms. But then again, that doesn't mean people will make rational decisions...

You overestimated the cost of pedal-power ("no one will be able to afford one joule", remember that?)

The problem with pedal power though is it can't be translated into an industrial context.

Why should we trust your intuition on the embodied energy of power lines?

What does that mean?


Again, you're always erring in the same direction: "My agrarianist assumption has to be right, so I had better shoot down SOMETHING to get this darn electricity to turn off."

Well you can't argue an agrarianist society isn't an highly resilient one. Just look at how long the Amish have been around, trouble free.
 
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Also, that kind of misses the point. How will you find the energy to build this hydro electric plant if you don't have that hydro electric power to begin with?
The same way the egyptians did.

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No I did not. I'm asking where the energy will come from to mass produce computers without fossil fuels.

And I responded: from renewable energy sources like hydro, nuclear, solar, and wind. That's why we were talking about hydro, remember? Future computer-factories will be powered by (say) the hydro that's currently---right now, today, even though fossil fuel is still cheap---producing 20% of the world's electricity.

Since constructing a hydro electric plant is a monumental undertaking,

... and it produces a monumental amount of power in return.

I have not. I don't see why people would waste time and energy that could be used to feed them just so they can have the energy to go into chatrooms.

Again, you have a bizarre and limited idea of what people use the Internet for.
 
Hydro is neither cheap, nor portable.

Hydro is very often the cheapest source of electricity.

Just because you can generate the energy, doesn't mean it's viable.

No, but being cheap and easy to use makes hydro viable. That's why good hydropower resources have consistently been among the first things to be exploited for electricity; and they have a long history of being used for motive power to run mills and other machinery in the era before electricity.

Petroleum is not only damn cheap, but also extremely portable.

Petroleum is expensive; its only virtue is that of being portable. Why do you think there's essentially no petroleum on the electric grid?

Hydro is intermittent

Nonsense. Hydro power is the opposite of intermittent, it is dispatchable. It can not only supply baseload power, but it can continously adjust its generation to allow integration of some renewable sources like wind power into the grid and deal with peaks in demand.

[...]and can't be transfered around the world to be used for repairs.

Why would you need to transfer the fuel half-way around the world?

Any energy source is convertible into any other energy source at some level of efficiency, and the amount of liquid fuel needed is miniscule. If you insist that no biomass will be available and hydroelectric power has to be used to produce portable fuel, then one of the easiest things is to make ammonia through electrolysis + haber bosch; this is 1920's tech. Among others, Norway did this; at it's peak they were producing 440,000 metric tonnes per year of ammonia from water, air and hydroelectric power. Makes a decent fuel for internal combustion engines if you insist that no fuel cells may be used; it has historically been used as such. There have been attempts to develop synthesis of ammonia directly from water, nitrogen and electricity in a solid state device(borrows from solid oxide fuel cell technology); which could use as little as 7 to 8 MWh per ton of ammonia(~70-80% efficiency in converting electrical energy into chemical energy in ammonia).

You could certainly make hydrocarbons from electric power, water and air, without using any concentrated sources of CO2 if you insist; there are better ways of doing things but it's not insanely difficult. What you'd do is capture CO2 using a passive collector(such as a sodium hydroxide). Then you'd bake CO2 out of the resulting sodium carbonate. You'd use electrolysis for your hydrogen. Then you'd use the reversible water-gas shift reaction to make carbon monoxide, mixed with hydrogen at the desired H2:CO ratio.

H2O + CO <-> H2 + CO2.

And then you put the mix through the fischer-tropsch process. Depending on your H2:CO ratio you get different hydrocarbon length distributions. Historically fischer-tropsch has only been viable on a large scale, but fairly efficient, tiny F-T reactors in the hundreds of barrels per day range are being developed and are at the pilot stage.
 
To be fair, a significant portion of the available hydro has been tapped already, and many places are very hesitant to even propose one due to the backlash that comes from telling people that you're going to completely alter an ecosystem and flood valuable land. Not to mention that hydro power has been used for thousands of years for irrigation and pretty much every industry at some point in time. Pumped hydro is an excellent large scale energy storage method though, good for peak smoothing.

But TFain isn't interested in the alternatives. Nuclear, geothermal, wind, solar, they've all been presented to him. He's just going in a giant circle trying to find a way to justify is stupid assumption that civilization is somehow going to lose a few hundred years of scientific progress and regress back to being Amish. There isn't anything to support his notions, he throws random stuff out, either from obscure blog posts/papers or from his personal lack of relevant education. He has no interest in the counters to what he's posting, he's just going to keep flinging it out and hoping that something will stick.
 
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But communications will decline. Pen and paper will become the new "normal".


Pen, paper, and physical transport of written communications are much less energy and resource efficient.

No, they are not perishable, but the point isn't about perishables, it's the expense to ship those products around the world. Of course perishable goods are even worse in that regard, but non perishables count as well.


Okay, well if the point is not about perishables, then perhaps talking about salad in relation to cost issues of bulk shipping of goods does not usefully add to the conversation. I'm not sure why you keep bringing it up.

As I mentioned before, some perishable foods can be made less perishable by irradiation. This also goes a long way toward replacing refrigeration without compromising food safety. I expect you'll be completely in favor of that, right? Think of the children.

But how much will this "Greater" cost be?


A small multiple of the current cost, as I said. Probably about 2.5x. Certainly more affordable, safer, more convenient, and more effective than using candles or whale oil.

Why wouldn't we just use candle wax?


Because candle wax (of any variety) is fuel, a scarce resource in your scenario. You can burn it to get a little bit of flickery yellow light from a candle flame for a short time, or you can use it to manufacture a hand-cranked dynamo, some capacitors, and some LEDs and get available steady white light for a long time.

(First paper, now candles... you have some very environmentally extravagant and wasteful proclivities. Next thing you'll be wanting to ride horses instead of using a bicycle.)

How would that be helpful?


Is that question serious? You're asking how technologies that preserve knowledge help preserve knowledge?

I think you're underestimating how much the Romans accomplished.


In science and medicine, no I'm not. Fortunately they held onto some of the knowledge they got from the Greeks and other conquered subjects, and even allowed some progress in mathematics to continue (mostly in Alexandria).

Except for some surgical knowledge (stemming bleeding, setting broken bones and so forth) acquired by experience on the battlefield, Roman medicine was as worthless as any other medicine of the time (or for millennia after). As far as preventing or treating infectious disease was concerned, access to the most advanced Roman medical knowledge in the Empire would have been more likely to do you harm than good.

And yet, they still exhausted their resource base which led to their collapse. Interesting..


They were very strong militarily, and so exhausted their "resource base" of easily conquerable neighbors. Or so the article you cited speculates.

It also claims, without citing a single historical document or archaeological finding in support, that erosion or depletion of farm land was a significant factor, while admitting that historical sources state otherwise, that the arable land available exceeded the labor supply to work it.

Resource exhaustion in the environmental sense remains an unproven and unlikely hypothesis as an explanation for the fall of Rome.

Maybe not, but it's not likely without massive infrastructure to retain our medical and scientific knowledge. Maybe if we had a class of hermit monks who took vows of poverty and sole mission in life was to retain that knowledge. But we don't have that anymore...


There are no monks anymore? That's strange, I could swear that there are some I talk to and visit several times per week on matters of mutual interest, who have in fact taken vows of poverty and whose sole mission in life is to help the needy.

Preserving knowledge doesn't really require their attention at present, but if the need should arise, I expect many people (not just monks of course) to take on that mission. Everyone except the most depraved illiterate barbarians understands that knowledge is valuable.

A kilobyte is a page. A megabyte is a book. A gigabyte is a library. Speaking as someone who might very well put high value on retaining knowledge, I can carry one or two hundred gigabytes in my pocket without making a bulge. The electronics needed to read that data is not particularly complex, and suitable devices for it (many of them small and low-power) already exist by the millions. So, what "massive infrastructure" is required?

So, if they really want that Dark Age, those Druidic book-burning chip-burning death squads are going to have to work hard for it. Good luck finding all the copies. Us knowledge-loving hermit monks learned not to put all our eggs in one basket, back in Alexandria.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
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Since constructing a hydro electric plant is a monumental undertaking,

The world's current hydro base is producing 800 gigawatts of power. Right now, even though fossil fuel is still cheap. That's 20% of the world's electricity demand.

Your proposal---that you can't build and maintain hydro without fossils---is nonsense. Do you think that the hydropower-plant construction and maintenance industry, today, the industry that already that keeps those 800GW turbines running, is consuming more than 800GW worth of fossil fuels? For example, you think that the dam construction and turbine maintenance industry uses more energy than the cement-making industry, or more than the entire country of Argentina? Baloney. Put up your numbers or give it up.

The problem with pedal power though is it can't be translated into an industrial context.

"The problem with shovel power is that it can't dig really BIG canals across whole states, certainly not from Albany to Buffalo-ooooo."

Let me put it this way. Betty owns an microcomputer factory and a 20MW hydro plant. She's been earning $10M/y selling iPhone-like thingees, with built in solar panels, to farmers worldwide. (That's about 20,000 units/year, easy for a small factory like this.) One day her power plant breaks down. They haul out the broken generator and find that it's shorted out; to fix it they need to fire up their 30 kW copper-melting furnace, and keep it up for a week, in order to draw new wires.

Right now, TFian, that 30kW-week (10^10 J) is worth something north of $10M to Betty. Can she get it? She's going to try, isn't she? If she needed to get it from wimpy 30W bike riders she'd be willing to pay them $10,000 a head. If she needed to get it from firewood, she'd be offering a million dollars a cord. If she needed to hand-carry the wire from someone else's wire-pulling plant 1000 miles away, she'd be offering the delivery-wagon-guy $10,000 a mile.

But you're telling me that Betty can't possibly fix her turbine ... for what reason? Bikes aren't powerful enough? Wood is too scarce? Nonsense.

That's a just-so story, but it illustrates two things you're persistently ignoring;

1) Units matter. A kilowatt is different than a megawatt, but 1000 kilowatts add up to a megawatt.

2) I keep repeating: computers are unusually valuable. That's why people voluntarily pay thousands of dollars for them today. They take very LITTLE energy to make, and very LITTLE energy to run, and they have LARGE impact on many aspects of quality of life. (To compare: Humvees take a lot of energy to make, and a lot to run, but have very little impact on the user's quality of life.)




Well you can't argue an agrarianist society isn't an highly resilient one. Just look at how long the Amish have been around, trouble free.[/QUOTE]
 
Well you can't argue an agrarianist society isn't an highly resilient one. Just look at how long the Amish have been around, trouble free.

a) Tell that to the Irish circa 1850. Tell that to the Ethiopians circa 1985. Tell that to the Bangladeshis circa 1976.

b) You think the Amish don't use fossil fuels?
 

Nothing to do with agrarianism.

Ok, put it this way. Look at the Tolowa indians. If you believe the myths of the Tolowa, they lived there since the beginning of time. If you believe in the myths of science, they've been around there 12,500 years. So, in any case, the Tolowa lived there for at least 12,500 years. And when the dominant culture got there 180 years ago, the place was a paradise. I mean, salmon runs so thick that you could hear them for miles before you’d see them. Just up in Canada, one of the things that people would do for fun when the salmon runs came in is they would throw a little pebble into the water, and they would see how long it would float on the backs of fish before it would hit the ground, because there were so many fish that the rock couldn’t make its way down. Now you're lucky if you see a half-dozen salmon in a year at this point. What's more resilient by sheer number of years?
 
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What's more resilient by sheer number of years?

The society that hasn't actually collapsed?

I also don't know how you can claim that for 12,500 years there was a single society there. There are still people living in Italy. Decendants of Romans. So, did the Roman Empire collapse?
 
Well the principle is, you don't use needed energy on a structure that is producing that very energy, now do you?
Why not? It seems like you'd be pretty stupid not to when repairs are needed. "Let's see, should I use the energy we're producing now to make necessary repairs so that we can continue to produce energy, or should we just let the problem get so bad that the plant will fail?"

Of course you use the energy that you're producing to maintain your ability to produce energy. Not to do so would be idiotic.

Also, that kind of misses the point. How will you find the energy to build this hydro electric plant if you don't have that hydro electric power to begin with?

We were talking about the ability to make repairs on a hydro plant using the energy that it is producing. That's a completely different point than whether or not we can produce new plants. Do you accept that such repairs could be made? If not, why not?
 
I also don't know how you can claim that for 12,500 years there was a single society there. There are still people living in Italy. Decendants of Romans. So, did the Roman Empire collapse?

The Tolowa's have existed for around 12,500 years as a civilization, the Romans did not. Italians are not Romans, at least not culturally. Italians are no longer racially pure either.
 
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Of course you use the energy that you're producing to maintain your ability to produce energy. Not to do so would be idiotic.

Then why do we always use outside energy sources to repair energy infrastructure?

Do you accept that such repairs could be made? If not, why not?

Only if we have multiple energy sources. On Hydro alone we can not power an industrial civilization.
 

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