CME's, active regions and high energy flares

OMG

It looks like I didn't post that prediction a moment too soon. I just got back from lunch and downloaded the 193A SDO images. The flare took place at 19:10:20, about 6 minutes after my "prediction". :) Whew, that's cutting it close. :)

Since it only appears in the last frames of the current image, I can't tell how big it is yet, but it looks to be a "double banger" with the second, larger flare, a few moments later. I'll need to see more of the images before I can say much more about the size of the ejection, but this kind of CME can produce lots of fast moving protons and electrons. It's a more dangerous kind of flare.
 
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Spaceweather.com already has a very cool video of the flare event. From that closeup, it looks as though the flare event began at 19:09:32, about *5* minutes after my posted prediction! Wow. Ok, that makes this trained pig, two for two, and I've nailed both types of flare/CME events now. Hehe!
 
If you have a scientific method for predicting solar activity please share it.
 
nvidiot said:
If you have a scientific method for predicting solar activity please share it.
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http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6448934&postcount=226

Sure, I'd be happy to. What we are looking for are 'changes over time" in both types of CME/flare events. Essentially there are two types of flares/CME's, both of which leave visible clues of impending mass ejections. The "size" of the event can also be determined in advance based on the factors involved. We've been discussing the dark filament type flares, but this was a different type of flare, an "electromagnetic" flare (EM flare). The EM flares tend to show clear signs of a "building process" in terms of photon output in high energy wavelengths. All the iron line images on SDO (94,131,193,211,335) show a clear pattern of increased photon output in and around that 'hot spot'. The 'trick' to predicting the EM flare is recognizing that there is typically a limit to this type of 'build up' before the flare occurs.

From my experience of watching a full solar cycle on several different wavelengths, I have noticed a "pattern" of build up, that was noticeable in that region for almost 48 hours prior to the flare. Trying to figure out exactly when it's going to happen is hard, but from experience, I knew we were 'getting close". I didn't realize if was "five minutes close", but I knew I wasn't going to be accused of crying wolf inside of a 48 hour window, and I also knew I couldn't wait much longer to predict it. :)
 
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I have moved a bunch of posts to AAH. From this point on, absolutely everything that even remotely seems like a personal remark will be infracted and dumped to AAH. Get along, or get out of the thread.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Lisa Simpson
 
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Michael Mozina said:
Talk is cheap. Let's see you duplicate either of my "predictions".
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You mean predict something 48 hours away and have it occur in 5 minutes, a "prediction" that is incorrect by orders of magnitude? Or claim to have made a successful prediction of a CME when in fact in at least one instance there was no recorded CME at all? Is there any reason why anyone would want to duplicate "predictions" like that?

Of course I did make a prediction using the exact same method you use, looking at a picture of some existing activity and predicting that the activity would continue to exist in the near future. I predicted two hours in advance that a specific event would occur in an area of approximately 50 square miles. Two hours later that event was occurring at the exact location. Perfect. Not a similar-but-not-really-the-same event. Not a few thousand percent sooner or later than my prediction. Perfect.

And again, your use of the word "prediction" in quote marks is an unconventional and unscientific use of the term. Since nobody here really knows what it means in quote marks, obviously nobody can duplicate your "prediction". And even if we took the word "predict" according its common scientific meaning, you haven't provided a method, a quantitative objective method, using measurements given in numbers and units, to describe what it is you think you're doing with this "prediction". And even if you did have a method that was quantitative and legitimately scientific, it would still require that you have the qualifications necessary to apply it to solar imagery in a scientifically relevant way.

Given all that, any of these claims you make about "predicting" anything can be dismissed as unsupported speculation, and any arguments you've made to support your claims can be dismissed as unqualified arguments.
 
Um, not that I'm paranoid or anything, but did anyone notice that all the SDO iron line movies were "cropped" during the timeline of that last flare? That's weird.
 
OMG - a guess that days are wet in winter

Michael Mozina said:
Ok, I'm going to go out on a limb and 'predict' an EM type of 'flare/cme" from the "hot spot" forming in the southern region.
...
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That is a rather silly "prediction". Active regions are active for a reason - they produce flares!
It is merely another case of you doing the equivalent of guessing that days are wet in winter.

In addition the guess itself is vague (next 48 hours) compared to your other guess (3-5 hours).

So lets see if I can be vague as you:
I guess (because active regions are... active!) that there will be an EM type of 'flare/cme" from region 11112 on the Sun in the next 48 hours (from 2010 Oct 17 08:30 UTC)
 
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Michael Mozina said:
Exactly what kind of "predictions" would you like?
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This is what I asked:
Reality Check said:
(Now a 82 MB file!)
Michael Mozina:
First asked 16 Oct 2010
According to you, there is a dark filament region (lots of dark filaments) in that 193A movie for 14 Oct 2010 so here is a chance for your method to really shine :D!
Where are your predictions for the CME related to these dark filaments?
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The response should be: For each dark filament in the movie
  1. Tell us whether it will produce a CME or not and why.
  2. If it will produce a CME tell us when, e.g. as in your last prediction of 3-5 hours. Remember to show your working like any good scientist would.
All I am doing is asking you to repeat the calculation that gave your only hit (the 3-5 hours guess until you can tell us how you got the numbers).
 
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Michael Mozina said:
...irelevant description of filament flares...
FYI, I'm not suggesting that "all" dark filaments lead to flares or CME's, only the ones that rise high enough into the ionized atmosphere do so, and much depends electromagnetic interactions between the surface and the heliosphere.
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FYI - that is the point: you have no way of telling whether a dark fillament will prduce a flare or CME. Thus every dark filament that does not produce a flare or CME counts against your "method" of guressing that an active region will be active.
Dark filaments are common (daily?). CME are rarer (weekly?). Thus your guesswork ony works a small percentage of the time.

But I may be wrong. You may have a method of calculating the time of a CME from the properties of a dark filament. That is why I asked you
and
 
Michael Mozina: Why are solar active regions called active

GeeMack said:
And again, your use of the word "prediction" in quote marks is an unconventional and unscientific use of the term. Since nobody here really knows what it means in quote marks, obviously nobody can duplicate your "prediction". And even if we took the word "predict" according its common scientific meaning, you haven't provided a method, a quantitative objective method, using measurements given in numbers and units, to describe what it is you think you're doing with this "prediction". .
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I will emphasis what GeeMack states here
  • You started this thread.
  • You use "predictions" in quotes - this means a non-prediction.
  • It is idiotic to ask us to duplicate your "predictions" without telling us how you did them in enough detail for us to to duplicate the method. So far your method looks like guessing that there will be activity from an active region.
That reminds me
17 October 2010
Michael Mozina
Why are solar active regions called active?
Does it mean that they do not produce dark filaments, flares and CME?
 
Reality Check said:
That is a rather silly "prediction". Active regions are active for a reason - they produce flares!
It is merely another case of you doing the equivalent of guessing that days are wet in winter.
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That is simply not true. I did explain to you how I did it, and both types of fares/CME's occurred in the timeline I specified. If you think it's so easy, let's see do it RC. Isolate *ONE* active region you believe is going to produce a flare for us in a 48 hour window. Give me a 5 hours head up of a CME inside of a 3 hour window. I am not able to do these things because of 'luck' but because of careful observation and pattern recognition. If you think it's so "easy", let's see you do it. D'rok discovered it's not as easy as you made it sound, by "experience". Go ahead and make a specific prediction for us RC If you think it's so easy.
 
FYI, I was all set to do do a post-mortem on that last M class flare today, but the folks at SDO decided to chop out the timeline in question from all the iron line images. That's more than a little weird. I know they received the data for that timeline because I watched it yesterday in every single iron ion wavelength. Suddenly today every iron ion wavelength during that timeline is missing. That's bizarre.
 
Michael Mozina said:
That is simply not true. I did explain to you how I did it, and both types of fares/CME's occurred in the timeline I specified. If you think it's so easy, let's see do it RC. Isolate *ONE* active region you believe is going to produce a flare for us in a 48 hour window. Give me a 5 hours head up of a CME inside of a 3 hour window. I am not able to do these things because of 'luck' but because of careful observation and pattern recognition. If you think it's so "easy", let's see you do it. D'rok discovered it's not as easy as you made it sound, by "experience". Go ahead and make a specific prediction for us RC If you think it's so easy.
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Your attempt to shift the burden of proof is noted and is a dishonest argument. You're making a claim, and if it is supposed to be scientific in any way, it is up to you to support your claim. Taunting and daring other people to duplicate your "prediction", when nobody even knows what you mean by "prediction", is wholly unscientific and clearly not moving this discussion forward. Science isn't a contest to see who can do something and who can't, and trying to support your claim from that angle doesn't make for a reasonable argument.

Now please define "prediction" the way you're using it, because clearly you're not using the word as commonly defined when discussing predictions related to theories and hypotheses. Then if you have a legitimately scientific, quantitative, objective method for making your "predictions", please explain it here, in detail, with the relevant math, numbers, units of measurement, and all.
 
Michael Mozina said:
That is simply not true. I did explain to you how I did it, and both types of fares/CME's occurred in the timeline I specified. If you think it's so easy, let's see do it RC.
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That is simply not true. You did not explain how you got the numbers that you came up with. Thus we have to assume that you guessed them. That is why I asked (and you are still ignoring)
and asked for some examples:
Michael Mozina said:
Isolate *ONE* active region you believe is going to produce a flare for us in a 48 hour window.
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I have:
Reality Check said:
That is a rather silly "prediction". Active regions are active for a reason - they produce flares!
It is merely another case of you doing the equivalent of guessing that days are wet in winter.

In addition the guess itself is vague (next 48 hours) compared to your other guess (3-5 hours).

So lets see if I can be vague as you:
I guess (because active regions are... active!) that there will be an EM type of 'flare/cme" from region 11112 on the Sun in the next 48 hours (from 2010 Oct 17 08:30 UTC)
Click to expand...
This is a pretty good guess because it has had 3 events in the last 24 hours
 
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Michael Mozina said:
FYI, I was all set to do do a post-mortem on that last M class flare today, but the folks at SDO decided to chop out the timeline in question from all the iron line images. That's more than a little weird. I know they received the data for that timeline because I watched it yesterday in every single iron ion wavelength. Suddenly today every iron ion wavelength during that timeline is missing. That's bizarre.
Click to expand...
FYI: That is what you get for looking at pretty pictures rather than scientific data. The people in charge of the pretty pictures do insist on editing them to make them pretty and sometimes make mistakes.
 
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