Will the internet survive energy contraction?

[drkitten]

Grand ArchDruid John Michael Greer has written extensively why technology can't shift away from petroleum.

And JRR Tolkien has written extensively on how elves taught trees to talk. And Rowling has written extensively on why wizards are living in secret among us instead of simply taking over the world.

The difference is that Tolkien and Rowling knew that what they were writing was wrong.

 

[drkitten]

It isn't though. Pony Express can be powered purely by muscle power, can you say the same about email?

Um, yeah. I think I might actually have a human-powered packet radio somewhere in my basement, or it may have died in one of the moves....

Designed for the third world, where power supplies are unreliable, so if the mains go out, you can simply turn the crank to charge it up.

 

[excaza]

Then you should listen to him



This is why we can't run our civilization on things like solar. since sunshine is dilute, not concentrated, it doesn't have very much usable energy in, and therefore cannot power civilization (eg via PVs or concentrated solar power).

Utter trash like that is the reason I'm not going to listen to him, or you, since you seem content to parrot everything he says.

 

[AvalonXQ]

Instead of basing his ideas on what humans will be able to do, Greer bases his ideas on what we humans will not be able to do. Such people are inevitably wrong.

 

[ZirconBlue]

Grand ArchDruid John Michael Greer has written extensively why technology can't shift away from petroleum. You should read up on it.

Wow, this greer guy really is a total kook isn't he?

People with goofy titles like "Grand ArchDruid" usually are. Others who repeadedly refer to said people by their full goofy title and name, doubly so.

 

[excaza]

it's interesting how he can say this about agriculture and the "impending doom" of chemical fertilizers....

It’s true, of course, that the rapid depletion of the world’s reserves of rock phosphate, a key ingredient in chemical fertilizers, is a serious short term problem. Today’s agricultural systems depend on chemical fertilizers, and there aren’t any other abundant and highly concentrated sources of mineral phosphate available to be dumped into the intake hoppers of fertilizer factories. Still, this doesn’t mean that we’re all going to starve to death; it means that the way we produce food nowadays is not long for the world, and will be replaced by other ways of producing food that don’t depend on mass infusions of nonrenewable resources

....but not apply the same logic to energy production.

 

[excaza]

And then there's this gem:

The sooner we start thinking about what kinds and forms of energy wind turbines are actually best suited to produce – rather than trying to forcie them onto the Procrustean bed of an electrical grid that was designed to exploit the very idiosyncratic kinds of energy you get from fossil fuel supplies – the sooner windpower can be put to use building an energy system for the future, rather than propping up a failing one from the past.

Fossil fuel supplies are idiosyncratic? wtf?

The current grid isn't suited to support most renewable power because it was designed on the assumption that it would have a constant base load and make up for the peaks using supplemental plants. It's basically "dump energy in and hope it's enough" with a lot more science behind it. The grid is not suited for intermittent power supply that comes from renewable sources. Hence why the people who know what they're talking about have been spending the last 20-30 years developing energy storage technologies (Smart Grid, google it) to compensate for this and to smooth out the energy curve. They're doing research and developing things instead of sitting going "we're going to have to become farmers again and communicate by pigeon."

What stands in the way of this recognition, of course, is the emotional power of today’s ideology of progress, the purblind assumption that the way we do things must be the best possible way to do them.

This is completely false.

 

[TFian]

While I'm still getting through responding to all the new posts, I don't get why you guys are trying to pigeon hole John Greer as some crazy kook? He's a pretty scientifically literate guy, and his Green Wizard movement shows promise. You should look more into it.

http://www.greenwizards.org/

"One of the things the soon-to-be-deindustrializing world most needs just now is green wizards. By this I mean individuals who are willing to take on the responsibility to learn, practice, and thoroughly master a set of unpopular but valuable skills – the skills of the old appropriate tech movement – and share them with their neighbors when the day comes that their neighbors are willing to learn. This is not a subject where armchair theorizing counts for much – as every wizard’s apprentice learns sooner rather than later, what you really know is measured by what you’ve actually done – and it’s probably not going to earn anyone a living any time soon, either, though it can help almost anyone make whatever living they earn go a great deal further than it might otherwise go. Nor, again, will it prevent the unraveling of the industrial age and the coming of a harsh new world; what it can do, if enough people seize the opportunity, is make the rough road to that new world more bearable than it will otherwise be."

-- John Michael Greer, The Archdruid Report

 

[excaza]

Knowing how to grow a garden doesn't magically make one qualified to accurately discuss the state of the world's energy grid.

 

[TFian]

Knowing how to grow a garden doesn't magically make one qualified to accurately discuss the state of the world's energy grid.

Yeah, but that's hardly all he knows.

 

[excaza]

You have a funny way of showing you know more than that. If coming across as a kook is your goal, mission successful. Stick to plants.

 

[TFian]

You have a funny way of showing you know more than that. If coming across as a kook is your goal, mission successful. Stick to plants.

I don't garden Didn't you say you weren't going to respond to me anymore earlier? About time you get to leaving...

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

 

[excaza]

No, I didn't.

Didn't you say you're were going to provide some numbers proving the impending total collapse of civilization and how renewable energy sources aren't sufficient? Other than parroting grand archkook and making bare assertions?

 

[TFian]

No, I didn't.

Didn't you say you're were going to provide some numbers proving the impending total collapse of civilization and how renewable energy sources aren't sufficient? Other than parroting grand archkook and making bare assertions?

Responses forthcoming.

 

[ZirconBlue]

While I'm still getting through responding to all the new posts, I don't get why you guys are trying to pigeon hole John Greer as some crazy kook? He's a pretty scientifically literate guy, and his Green Wizard movement shows promise. You should look more into it.

http://www.greenwizards.org/

"Grand Archdruid"? "Green Wizards"? Seriously. That's got "kook" written all over it.

 

[Weak Kitten]

Um...does this "Green Wizard" thing just mean someone who knows pre-mechanized agricultural techniques? Personally, if I need to know about that sort of thing I'll go talk to the Amish. They've been doing it for generations and I know they won't give me any BS...other than the type that actually comes out of the cow.

TFian, what exactly are you looking for on this forum? Everyone here has read your arguments and given rather well reasoned responses to all of them. It's been a fun bull session but until you provide some sort of solid evidence we're just discussing different views about the direction civilization will go in the future.

Personally, I don't like your view of the future. I refuse to write off billions of people as necessary deaths. So without a really good argument as to why I should accept your vision of the future I'm going to go with those who have a more optimistic view and are as horrified as I am at the idea of mass starvation and death.

 

[excaza]

oh don't worry, the clincher argument is 'forthcoming'

 

[TFian]

oh don't worry, the clincher argument is 'forthcoming'

Well, numerous responses with the details requested take a while to format and type up, and the fact I'm busy with a lot of other life related activities, means detailed responses won't be instant.

Sorry.

 

[Roboramma]

Responses forthcoming.

Cool, perhaps you could start by responding to the numbers on the available uranium in the oceans and explaining why that doesn't nullify your entire argument?

 

[excaza]

Well, numerous responses with the details requested take a while to format and type up, and the fact I'm busy with a lot of other life related activities, means detailed responses won't be instant.

Sorry.

So you're making all these statements about how the world is doomed, and you haven't already done the work? That's reassuring.