The Stimulus Seems to have failed

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39288720/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

More than half of U.S. states saw their unemployment rates rise in August, the largest number in six months, as hiring weakened across the country.

The jobless rate increased in 27 states last month, the Labor Department said Tuesday. It fell in 13 and was unchanged in 10 states and Washington, D.C.

And guess what? The worst are all blue states. The best were all red states. :D

Meanwhile, Obama assures his sycophant followers that things are getting better and it's all Bush's (and the Tea Party's) fault. :rolleyes:
 
Hey, don't worry Obama supporters. The NBER must think the stimulus worked. Because according to the NBER, the recession was over back in June of 2009.

Of course, the NBER does have a history of democrat-leaning partisanship … or at least not liking George Bush.

Don't believe me?

The NBER still claims the 2000 recession began in Bush's term when it clearly it began in Clinton's … even after the President of the NBER, Martin Feldstein, admitted in 2004 that the data they based their original claim on was wrong. Even after he stated "It is clear that the revised data have made our original March date for the start of the recession much too late." They still date the start of that recession in Bush's term. To protect Clinton's legacy.

The NBER's bias is obvious, and the reason may be they are primarily composed of democrats … some of whom are closely tied to the Obama camp (one being David Romer, husband of Christina Romer … one of the architects of the failed stimulus). And lest you still not believe me, these articles conclusively prove that bias: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/12/nbers_anomalous_recession_call.html, http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=3691, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/08/business-cycle-dating.html, http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/08/dating_business.html, http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/conda200403050902.asp, http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.c...sts-on-the-candidates-economic-plans/?apage=3).

So perhaps you need to look elsewhere for proof the stimulus worked.

:D
 
This link has a GREAT chart showing the cumulative growth in GDP following this recession as compared to 9 other recessions since 1948.

https://www.americancentury.com/images/WMUchart-weekOf-Aug02-10-2.gif
(from https://www.americancentury.com/viewpoint/weekly_market_update_archive.jsp )

As the link notes:

The chart above, which plots cumulative percentage change in real GDP, shows how different the Great Recession and our current recovery have been compared to all others. First, GDP declines did not occur immediately as the recession began. Second, the level of cumulative GDP decline ( -4.1%) was the deepest of all recessions post-World War II by a small margin. Third (and in part because of the depth), our path back to a level of GDP we enjoyed as the recession began (see the horizontal line at 0%) has clearly been the longest. In fact, even as of the second quarter this year, we have yet to return to a level of GDP we had achieved in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Another way to analyze the data illustrated in the chart above is to calculate the median and average lengths of time (in months) to go from the official start of the recession to the point where the cumulative change in GDP has reached this "breakeven" line of 0%. For the nine past recessions and recoveries shown, the median time to breakeven is 15 months and the average time is 16.3 months. For the Great Recession and current recovery, we are at 30 months and still not at breakeven, although one more quarter of even modest real GDP growth should get us there. Still, 33 months to breakeven for GDP is approximately twice as long as the combined median or average for the past nine recessions.

Can it be any clearer than this? The Stimulus didn't work. It's what caused this.

The Wall Street Journal looks at the comparison with just the 1981-82 recession:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...5504053230524906.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

A Tale of Two Recoveries

… snip …

What is different about this period is the relative weakness of the economic recovery. As the nearby chart shows, in 1983 the recovery surpassed its previous peak in gross domestic product very rapidly from the recession's trough. Growth rose by 4.5% in 1983, 7.2% in 1984 and 4.1% in 1985, and it kept climbing through the rest of the 1980s. This is the kind of recovery you would expect coming out of a severe recession, since the deeper the trough the steeper the rebound.

This time, even after a year of recovery through June 2010, real GDP remained 1.3% below its previous peak in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the NBER sages. The current recovery peaked with 5% growth in the last quarter of 2009 but has decelerated in 2010—to 1.6% in the second quarter. … snip …

Our readers know the competing explanations for this undeniably disappointing performance. White House economists and liberals say the financial roots of this recession have made the recovery unusually difficult, the fiscal stimulus saved the day, and thus we need more of it. Our view is that hyperkinetic government policies have done more harm than good, leading to uncertainty and higher costs that have undermined business and consumer confidence and slowed the economy's otherwise natural recuperative powers.
 
In 1981/2 the USA and the West in general still made a lot of stuff. Nowadays much of what we consume comes in from the East. That in itself makes recovery harder.

Likewise the nature of much of the manufacturing that remains has changed, it uses far less labour than a generation ago, that too doesn't help.

We have outsourced (to the East) a lot of grunt white collar work.

Part of the problem with recovering from this reccession is that our countries no longer need the labour force that is available to them. As to why "illegals" (or Eastern European migrants over here) always seem to find work, that is part of the vagaries of the tax and welfare systems of our countries.

Steve
 
Looks like another administration *economist* is going to jump ship and head back to academia (to indoctrinate the next batch of young minds).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-s-economic-council-to-return-to-harvard.html

Lawrence Summers plans to leave his job as director of the president’s National Economic Council and return to Harvard University at the end of the year, the administration announced.

… snip …

The departure of Summers will leave Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as the only member of Obama’s original top-tier economic team. Last year, Obama asked Summers, 55, to stay through 2010 and his departure is part of a long-standing plan, an administration official said.

Remember back in October 2009 when Summers blamed everything on Bush and insisted the economy was on the upswing? LOL!
 
Here's part of the problem with the Obama administration. This chart shows the private sector experience of all 432 presidential Cabinet officers since 1900. As you can plainly see, Obama's cabinet stands by itself in it's lack of private sector experience. Even the closest second, the JFK administration, had 4 times the percentage of people with private sector experience in it's cabinet.

http://www.frugal-cafe.com/public_h...s/2010/01/private-sector-experience-chart.jpg

The folks surrounding Obama are nothing but a bunch of ivory tower, government sucking, socialists, by and large. No wonder the Stimulus was such a complete failure. No wonder so many other programs are on the same path to disaster. And no wonder the folks supporting Obama here at JREF aren't even trying any longer to defend Obama on this thread.

(crickets) :D
 
Here's part of the problem with the Obama administration. This chart shows the private sector experience of all 432 presidential Cabinet officers since 1900. As you can plainly see, Obama's cabinet stands by itself in it's lack of private sector experience. Even the closest second, the JFK administration, had 4 times the percentage of people with private sector experience in it's cabinet.

http://www.frugal-cafe.com/public_h...s/2010/01/private-sector-experience-chart.jpg

The folks surrounding Obama are nothing but a bunch of ivory tower, government sucking, socialists, by and large. No wonder the Stimulus was such a complete failure. No wonder so many other programs are on the same path to disaster. And no wonder the folks supporting Obama here at JREF aren't even trying any longer to defend Obama on this thread.

(crickets) :D

Uh huh.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ays-less-10-percent-obama-cabinet-members-ha/
 

According to your link, here's the criteria Cembalest used:

"Many of these individuals started a company or ran one, with first-hand experience in hiring and firing, domestic and international competition, red tape, recessions, wars and technological change. Their industries included agribusiness, chemicals, finance, construction, communications, energy, insurance, mining, publishing, pharmaceuticals, railroads and steel; a cross-section of the American experience. (I even gave [one-third] credit to attorneys focused on private-sector issues, although one could argue this is a completely different kettle of fish.)

Your source claims Shaun Donovan, Steven Chu, Ken Salazar meet that criteria. And claims Hillary Clinton, Tom Vilsack and Gary Locke meet the private practice lawyer criteria (in which case, they'd count as one). And also claims Geithner meets the critera. But seriously, folks, do these folks really have much in the way of REAL private sector experience? Profit and loss statements. Creating capital. Dealing with taxes? Producing and selling a product? Advertising that product? Actually running a business? Or is Politifact cheating a bit in it's characterization of their experience?

Let's take a closer look.

Born in 1966, Shaun Donovan's private-sector experience consists solely of what he did between the time he graduated from college in 1995 and October 1998 when he joined HUD. Given his inexperience at the time, it's unlikely he did those things that Cembalest identified … ran anything or had first-hand experience in hiring and firing. His bio says he worked first as an architect during that time and then worked for the Community Preservation Corporation, a non-profit group in New York City. As an architect, when you first get out of school, you tend to do grunt work. Ask any architect. He wasn't running anything or worrying about corporate survival. And his work at the CPC would appear to be much the same. In fact, it appears he spent the rest of his life figuring out how to basically give houses away using mostly government money. And look how that turned out, folks? His attitude about the private sector is summarized by him … "I would never believe that the private sector, left to its own devices, is the best possible solution." Sorry, but given all that, I don't really think he deserves credit for any free-market, true private-sector experience.

Steven Chu worked at Bell Labs from 1978 to 1987, where he and several co-workers carried out some Nobel Prize-winning research. You may call this "private sector", but it's not exactly the sort of job Cembalest identified in his criteria as relevant to showing a person's financial and free-market acumen. He had little to do with the "business" end of things, with dealing with the real time stresses of the business world. And then he went back to academia for a while. Then he did a stint as Director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, but that's not what I'd call a private sector job either. It's essentially living off the government. He didn't take products to market but worked on grants from the government. With the usual government waste. In fact, does LLNL even have to pay taxes and a business entity? In any case, I am willing to give him partial credit (say a 1/3rd of a job) since at least he wasn't engaged in giving away houses to people who couldn't afford them and LLNL does serve national defense. :D

Now Ken Salazar is a lawyer who went into private-practice law immediately after college for a few years (from 1981 to 1985), and then reentered private practice from 1994 to 1998 before landing his next government gig. While his family was in the ranching business, and he is is often listed as a “rancher”, his "business" experience is really only in environmental and water-related law. Using Cembalest's criteria, his law experience should only count as 1/3rd of a job regardless, same as Cembalest gave the lawyers in the other administrations to which he compared Obama's.

Now Hillary Clinton's private practice experience was with the Rose Law Firm. Do you REALLY want to discuss THAT job experience? Because, remember, those Rose Firm Firm billing records that showed up in her Whitehouse living quarters, just days after the statute of limitations on crimes they proved had expired, didn't just walk there. Because we could discuss the other documents she and her Rose Law Firm partner, William Kennedy, ordered Rose Law Firm couriers to shred? Or perhaps we should talk about what happened to her Rose Law firm partner, Vince Foster … who was not only a good friend but the Clinton's personal lawyer? Or we can discuss convicted Rose Law firm attorney and good friend of the Clintons, Web Hubble, and his role in Whitewater (a Rose Law Firm scandal)? Yes, I'm sure her experience working at the Rose Law Firm prepared her for work in the Obama administration … but not in the way you and Politfact want folks to think. So I'm sorry, no private-sector experience for Hillary in my book. :D

Sure, Timothy Geithner had private sector experience. He worked for Kissinger Associates for three years, right out of school. As such, I doubt his job carried much responsibility or focus on *running the business*. In fact, http://www.suite101.com/content/timothy-geithner-and-blackrock-inc-a113800 states that "According to Henry Kissinger, Geithner was hired to help research a book." Not run a company. And this was an influence peddling firm … not your typical private sector job. What specifically it did and for whom seems to be a secret. As the NYTimes Magazine reported in 1986, "It is very difficult to pin down what Mr. Kissinger and the others are really doing in the business end of their lives. None will say for attribution who their clients are or discuss the specifics of what they do, although they do talk about their work with the understanding that they not be identified…Kissinger Associates requires a clause in its contracts stating that neither the firm nor its clients will divulge a business connection…” Just the sort of experience we need in the most *transparent* administration in history. :rolleyes: And isn't it ironic that Obama, who made such a big thing about attacking "special interests", should bring into his cabinet a person who has been described (http://www.aim.org/aim-column/the-big-money-behind-geithner/ ) as a "wheeler-dealer for powerful special interests." :D

Now after those 3 years, Geithner joined the government. Then later worked for the Council on Foreign Relations for a while. That's not your typical private sector job, either. Then he worked for the Federal Reserve Bank. Again, not your typical private sector job. In each case, more concerned about influencing government than bringing a product to the free-market or the everyday problems associated with running a successful business … such as paying your taxes (which you know Geithner failed to do). So I'm sorry, I'm going to have to suggest Cembalest was right in not crediting Geithner with private sector experience on par with people from other administrations. :D

Now it's true that Tom Vilsack worked for over 10 years in private practice as an attorney, and even longer while holding not-full-time elective offices such as mayor and state representative. But the best I can give him is 1/3rd of a honest job based on Cembalest's criteria. Especially since he seems to have a soft spot for *farmers* who started farms established using communist principles. :D

And it's also true that Gary Locke had private law experience, from 1975 through his election as Executive in King County in 1993, and then again after 2005 until 2009. But then, some of that experience is tied to John Huang and Chinagate. So maybe he doesn't deserve a 1/3rd of a job, like Cembalest gave other lawyers. And besides, Locke now seems more concerned about America paying for China's carbon emissions and removing our export control restrictions (so China can get even more formerly restricted technology) than America actually producing products to sell to … well … the Chinese, for instance. So all in all, I don't really think Locke should get credit for a 1/3rd of a private sector job credit either. :D

Now, since none of the other two Cabinet members that were named meet the assumptions that Cembalest made in his study, or are claimed in your link to meet them, let's see where we stand. Out of those nine cabinet positions, I count the equivalent of 1 free-market, private-sector job. That 1/9 = 11%. Granted that's a little more than Cembalest allowed, but it's still far less than any of the other administrations appear to have had, using the criteria that Cembalest established (and their percentages might go up too, if I applied my revised and more lenient criteria to them).

:D
 
http://thelookingspoon.com/september-2010/1056-a-grand-end-to-the-recovery-bummer.html

A Grand End to the Recovery Bummer

… snip ...

I have a question that I know will leave me mighty perplexed as we enter into the fall and beyond and we are admonished it is Obama's policies that are improving things....

If the recession officially ended 4 months into Obama's presidency there there can't be any honest rationale that can be used to say any of his initiatives worked quickly enough to end it, right? So if economic growth remains anemic despite being in recovery...to what extent are Obama's policies getting in the way of such things?


Oooooooooh, good question. :D

(crickets)
 
Well, well, that question seems to be going viral …

http://neoavatara.com/blog/?p=11662

Recession Ended in June 2009? Who Ended It?

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of the U.S. business cycle, on Monday announced that our ‘Great Recession’ officially ended in June of 2009.

… snip …

For the last 20 months, Mr. Obama has stated that the current economic quandary we find ourselves in is all the fault of his predecessor, President George W. Bush. The logical follow through on that statement, however, would be that it was President Bush, not President Obama, who then helped end the recession. Correct?

Democrats will obviously counter that it was Mr. Obama’s stimulus that pulled us out of the recession. But the facts, again, counter this argument. Less than 5% of the stimulus money was spent before June 2009. In fact, Bush’s 2007 tax cut program infused more money into the economy than the Obama Stimulus did by that point in time. Giving Obama credit for the end of the recession, when he refused to take credit for the other economic factors, is simply disingenuous.

:D
 
http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/decline-is-in-the-mind/

Juxtapose pictures of Frankfurt and Liverpool in 1945, and then again in 2010 … snip ... At the end of the Second World War, the industrial centers of western and eastern Europe were flattened. Russia was wrecked. China and India were pre-capitalist. Germany and Japan themselves were in cinders. The factories of the United Kingdom (despite the 1940 blitz and the later V-1 and V-2 attacks) were largely untouched, and the United States pristine. Both countries had incurred massive debt. Yet Britain in the late 1940s and 1950s socialized, increased vastly the public sector, and become the impoverished nation of the 1960s and 1970s. In contrast, America began to return to its entrepreneurial freedoms, and geared up to supply a wrecked world with industrial and commercial goods, paying down its massive debt through an expanding economy. We thrived; yet socialist Britain did not become a West Germany, Japan, or Singapore.

There is an important history lesson in the above that is relevant to the OP in this thread and a clue as to what we should now do, if you are only willing to listen. But are you? :D
 
http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/22/o...ier-americans-would-have-deleterious-effects/

The National Taxpayer Union released a letter Wednesday signed by more than 300 economists in support of a permanent extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, saying that failure to do so *“would constitute a profound and damaging ‘anti-stimulus’ that would harm our prospects for expansion in the near future.”

“We, the undersigned economists, write in support of extending current tax rates on income and investments in order to prevent a devastating blow to America’s fragile economic recovery,” the letter reads. “Robust economic growth is best served by a tax code that levies low and predictable rates. The promise of a tax increase in January 2011 would create significant economic distortions as individuals and businesses conserve capital or stave off hiring.”
 
Oh my … we seem to be headed in the wrong direction.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...laims-rise-unexpectedly-week/?test=latestnews

New Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly

… snip …

Initial claims for jobless aid rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 465,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Many economists had expected a flat reading or small drop.


But *Thank God* the recession is over and Obama saved us from a *depression* (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100923/ap_on_re_us/un_obama_6 ). :rolleyes:
 
Speaking of depressions …

http://townhall.com/columnists/SteveChapman/2010/09/23/the_failure_of_obamas_stimulus

The Failure of Obama's Stimulus

… snip …

A Bloomberg survey of economists found that most expect the unemployment rate to stay above 9 percent until 2012.

Now given that "above 9 percent" expectation over a time period of 3 years (starting in 2009), consider this ...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/29/how-a-modern-depression-m_n_180541.html

How A Modern Depression Might Look

Wall Street Journal

3/29/09

… snip ...

Many economic historians say the line between recession and depression is crossed when unemployment rises above 10% and stays there for several years.

Maybe Obama is going to get this one wrong too?
 

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