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Schrodinger's Rapist: When is uncritical thought ok?

Try to follow the thread, I already said she didn't say this in the article. It's implied by her misuse of statistics. You simply can't arrive at 1 in 60 rapists commit 10 rapes without assuming 1 in 6 men commit rape.

What do you think she's multiplying by 10? Just answer me that question. :D

Just so you know, 1 in 6 women are assaulted times 10 rapes per rapist doesn't equal 1 in 60 men are rapists. It doesn't work like this. You can't do it.

1. It's a non-sequitur. Even if she said that 1 in 60 rapists commit 10 rapes each (which actually she didn't), it still doesn't mean 1 in 6 men are rapists. It's something that simply doesn't follow. Just because you have two numbers, it doesn't mean you can add or multiply or divide them in any arbitrary way you wish.

2. She doesn't actually say that 1 in 60 rapists commit 10 rapes each. That's yet another strawman of yours.

At any rate, support it with an actual quote.
 
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It matters a great deal if you're trying to figure out how many men have committed rapes.

Yep, if it's 10, like the author suggests the percentage of men committing rape falls to 0.05% and falls around the same probability of someone pulling a gun on you a shooting you dead.

Not exactly the best alternative to being raped, but better and again, not specific to women.
 
Yep, if it's 10, like the author suggests the percentage of men committing rape falls to 0.05% and falls around the same probability of someone pulling a gun on you a shooting you dead.

Not exactly the best alternative to being raped, but better and again, not specific to women.

You're still trying to equivocate between rape incidence per year and number of men who are rapists in a lifetime. She was talking about the latter.

Your number isn't even in the same units, for crying out loud. You're trying to present a number where the unit is "rapes per year" as a substitute for a number where the unit is "rapists". Even equivocating between rapes and rapists still leaves you with "per time unit" not accounted for. Briefly it's as silly as giving a length in miles per hour.

ETA: also, nowhere does she say "10 rapes per year", so dividing like that is just silly. In fact, the first sign you're doing it wrong should be that it gives you the wrong units for the result.
 
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1. It's a non-sequitur. Even if she said that 1 in 60 rapists commit 10 rapes each (which actually she didn't), it still doesn't mean 1 in 6 men are rapists. It's something that simply doesn't follow. Just because you have two numbers, it doesn't mean you can add or multiply or divide them in any arbitrary way you wish.

2. She doesn't actually say that 1 in 60 rapists commit 10 rapes each. That's yet another strawman of yours.

At any rate, support it with an actual quote.

You might want to give up math altogether. :D
 
Try to follow the thread, I already said she didn't say this in the article. It's implied by her misuse of statistics. You simply can't arrive at 1 in 60 rapists commit 10 rapes without assuming 1 in 6 men commit rape.

I just can't let this go, this is the silliest attempt at an argument since the guy screaming that potatoes didn't have an 'e' in it.

If I said that I couldn't arrive at 1 in 60 of your posts being utter lunacy without first assuming that one in 6 of your posts was utter lunacy, would you then understand your mistake here?

You can't say that arriving at a percentage of any group having quality X requires you to assume a different percentage of that group having quality X. Both percentages cannot be correct, much less one requiring the other.

I can't say that to arrive at a statistic that 20% of women have blond hair, I must assume that 70% of women have blond hair. Only one of those percentages can be accurate for a given definition of blond hair!
 
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Your number isn't even in the same units, for crying out loud. You're trying to present a number where the unit is "rapes per year" as a substitute for a number where the unit is "rapists". Even equivocating between rapes and rapists still leaves you with "per time unit" not accounted for. Briefly it's as silly as giving a length in miles per hour.

Yah, that's the problem with jumping from 1 in 6 women are sexually assaulted in their lifetime to 1 in 6 men are rapists. You can't do it. Keep up the good work, you could revolutionize statistics. ;)

ETA: also, nowhere does she say "10 rapes per year", so dividing like that is just silly. In fact, the first sign you're doing it wrong should be that it gives you the wrong units for the result.

I never said she did. I was saying the Tranewreck "if" they did then it falls into the same probability of being shot.

I think you're beginning to understand "1 in 6 women will be sexually assaulted" means just that and you can't make up stuff to determine the "concentration of rapists" or how many you will meet in any given situation.
 
I just can't let this go, this is the silliest attempt at an argument since the guy screaming that potatoes didn't have an 'e' in it.

Or "i"'s but that's another story.

If I said that I couldn't arrive at 1 in 60 of your posts being utter lunacy without first assuming that one in 6 of your posts was utter lunacy, would you then understand your mistake here?

You can't say that arriving at a percentage of any group having quality X requires you to assume a different percentage of that group having quality X. Both percentages cannot be correct, much less one requiring the other.

I can't say that to arrive at a statistic that 20% of women have blond hair, I must assume that 70% of women have blond hair. Only one of those percentages can be accurate for a given definition of blond hair!

Um, er, what? :confused:
 
As (I assume) a heterosexual male, I would think that you are interested in what women think. How they view the world. What they think about you, as a heterosexual male. How you can make them feel good instead of bad. (I assume you do not want to make them feel bad, on the whole. If you do, well, that's a different problem.) What if I told you there's this place on the internet where women talk to each other about exactly these things, and you can go and sneak a peek about what they're talking about? Well, here's your chance. Over 1000 posts by women, talking about just this thing: you coming up to them as a stranger and initiating conversation. You could go and investigate what they really think!

1) Of course, I would try to make every interaction I have with a stranger a positive one, but I do not think the original article helps men do that. It simply discourages them from starting the interaction in the first place.

2) I have no reason to believe that the women posting comments on this particular article are representative of all women. However, it does provide insight into how some women think. Some, not all.

But you don't. You read the article and automatically assume that THIS woman is crazy, THIS woman is unlike any woman you've encountered, and she hasn't thought about X, Y, or Z that makes YOU different. Why don't you go and find out? Read those 1000 posts by the gender that you are interested in; find out what they think?

I skimmed through the first 10% or so before responding to your post. But I quoted the specific part of the post that I disagreed with and I provided a specific counter argument which you have ignored.

1. Context is everything.
a.Location, for instance. It's okay to hit on women at bars, clubs, etc. She knows that's one of the things that happen at those places.
b. Body language, for another. Over and over, the women talked about what their body language looked like for "willing to talk" versus "unwilling to talk." Guess which one is which?
*hunched over, earbuds in, reading book, looking out window
*Looking around, smiling, making eye contact

This I addressed in my previous post, but I love the qualifier of context is everything. Indeed that is the case, the other "thing" that is everything is the specific woman being approached.

c. YOUR body language. Specifically, mentioning something in a way that ensures that if she doesn't want to continue the conversation, she doesn't have to. Examples? Complimenting her shoes on your way off the bus. Telling her you've read that book, too, and then turning away to read your own.

I agree with that, specifically when your in a situation where the women have some obstacle in moving away from you (if she's seated).

2. No, really, about that earbud and reading thing. <---- That means don't talk to her. None of the women wrote in to say "When I'm reading with headphones, I like people to interrupt me!" On the contrary, they talked about using it specifically as a way to tell people not to talk to them, but that people were always interrupting them anyway. One man wrote in to say that, wondering if this was true, he paid attention on the bus the next morning, and holy christ! it was true. A kid with Asperger's wrote in advising them that he did the same thing, and the only book he'd found that actually worked as a deterrent was the Bible. They honestly thanked him for the tip.

If you asked them whether or not they would want Leonardo Dicarprio to interrupt them you might get a different response. Clearly what matters is who is interrupting them, how, why, and when. Like you said context.

3. Over and over (I keep saying this, because you seem to think it's just this one woman, but really, the same things were said, over and over, by different women) the women talked about conflict avoidance and keeping the situation from escalating. You know how lots of 'em said they did that? By smiling and pretending to be interested, so that the man in question didn't get angry and start screaming at them. Men wrote in, saying "why can't you just be direct?" and they laughed at these men. Apparently men who will disrespect one boundary (body language) and then a second (polite reply and looking away) don't care much about screaming at them in public.

I have met many women that are direct. So this, again proves that the author of the article and those posting on that website do not speak for all women (I did see a few posts actually where people said they were perfectly comfortable being direct, but yes, some weren't). Why should men assume all women are one way?

I know this is hard for you, because I really do think you want to make women feel good, not bad, but what if--what if-- some of those women you refer to, the ones who "warm up" when you don't pay attention to their signals, ie, them being "bitchy" (nice revealing use of the language, there--not talking to you = bitchy), were just trying to make sure you didn't follow them off the bus/scream obscenities/assault them?

Maybe because I became friends with them or later on in the evening they grabbed me out of a crowd to talk to me? The only bus I ever rode was a campus shuttle and it was obvious we were all students so it may go back to context, but I don't think I would worry too much on a regular bus either.

ETA: Just to clarify, not talking to me = cold. Bitchy = actually acting like a bitch/snob (like making joke at my expense or something like that) ... cold girls can warm up too. What did I reveal with my language? No insinuations, be specific, please.

What if? Assume for the moment that this is the case. How does that make you feel? Don't say "that can't possibly be it!"-- assume that what these women said is how they really feel. Take them at their word. How does it make you feel?

I would feel bad for the anxiety they carry. I know I would never intend to hurt someone or cause them pain. But lets say that is the case for 9/10 girls and the 1/10 actually likes me. Should I deny myself and the 1 the positive mutually beneficial interaction (that might lead to something great and long lasting) to save the 9 some temporary anxiety?
 
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We get it, you don't understand math or logic.

Just your particular brand of logic. :D

It's amusing how everyone refuses to acknowledge what she multiplied by 10 to get her number.

"If you had ten times as many IQ points you'd have 100!"

"I don't have 10 IQ points" :(

"I never said you did, where'd I say that? You can't say I said that. You don't know math"

:D
 
I would feel bad for the anxiety they carry. I know I would never intend to hurt someone or cause them pain. But lets say that is the case for 9/10 girls and the 1/10 actually likes me. Should I deny myself and the 1 the positive mutually beneficial interaction (that might lead to something great and long lasting) to save the 9 some temporary anxiety?

You would feel bad...but...there's a potential 10 percent chance that she might like it, even if she said no at first.

Look, we both know you didn't mean it like that. At the same time, the article only says that you shouldn't talk to women who give you signs that they would like to be left alone. It seems strange that you would argue that point because there are times when everyone, male or female, would rather not deal with strangers.
 
1) Of course, I would try to make every interaction I have with a stranger a positive one, but I do not think the original article helps men do that. It simply discourages them from starting the interaction in the first place.

I just don't think you're engaging in an open or honest way with the article, or the comments.
Nowhere does it say you shouldn't open a conversation. You shouldn't open a conversation with a women who indicates she doesn't want conversation via her body language and /or replies, is what it says.

2) I have no reason to believe that the women posting comments on this particular article are representative of all women. However, it does provide insight into how some women think. Some, not all.

Yes. Some, not all. Had you bothered to do more than "skim" the comments you might have had an idea of what kind of percentage. But you didn't. Because you care so much about how women feel.



I skimmed through the first 10% or so before responding to your post. But I quoted the specific part of the post that I disagreed with and I provided a specific counter argument which you have ignored.

What are you talking about? I quoted your post in its entirety. I answered your post in its entirety. What do you think I ignored?


This I addressed in my previous post, but I love the qualifier of context is everything. Indeed that is the case, the other "thing" that is everything is the specific woman being approached.
Yes, that is very very true. In fact, she is an unknown entity until you talk to her. In fact, you could call her Schrodinger's Rape Survivor. Or Schrodinger's Lesbian. Or Schrodinger's Really-Wants-Just-To-Read-Her-Book. Maybe you should look for come clues, to tell you what it is she wants? Like the clues provided by the women whose opinions you keep discounting. Then maybe you could act with regard to those clues...



I agree with that, specifically when your in a situation where the women have some obstacle in moving away from you (if she's seated).
What about the women who really WANT you to sit next to them and block the way? You know, the ones who appreciate it if you shove past their "bitchiness?"



If you asked them whether or not they would want Leonardo Dicarprio to interrupt them you might get a different response. Clearly what matters is who is interrupting them, how, why, and when. Like you said context.
:) no, I really don't think that all women would want Leonardo Dicaprio to interrupt them. Lesbians come to mind. Besides, who it is or how cute he is is moot. The point she's making is that she will judge how safe or sketchy a man is by if and how he pays attention to her boundaries. So let's assume, for the moment, that the woman is heterosexual and finds Leonardo Dicaprio attractive and is interested in having him talk to her. She will provide signals that she would like to continue the conversation, if that is the case. If at any point she indicates an unwillingness to continue (sorry, if she indicates "bitchiness") and he doesn't respect that, then he's going to seem sketchy. What's hard to understand? Do you think women cannot ever find an attractive man creepy?


I have met many women that are direct. So this, again proves that the author of the article and those posting on that website do not speak for all women (I did see a few posts actually where people said they were perfectly comfortable being direct, but yes, some weren't). Why should men assume all women are one way?
Yep, that's addressed in the comments as well. Some women are direct, and feel comfortable with that. Some women don't, and so they aren't. When a man came to say "well, all women should be direct, and there wouldn't be a problem", though, well, they didn't agree with him--even the ones who have no trouble being direct. So what's the take home lesson for the gents? Well, it's that women are different and you need to read her cues. Then you need to respect those cues. (sorry! respect her "bitchiness".)



Maybe because I became friends with them or later on in the evening they grabbed me out of a crowd to talk to me? The only bus I ever rode was a campus shuttle and it was obvious we were all students so it may go back to context, but I don't think I would worry too much on a regular bus either.
Well, your experience is clearly extensive enough to extrapolate to all women and justify dismissing out of hand the opinions some chose to share with you. No problem there.
ETA: Just to clarify, not talking to me = cold. Bitchy = actually acting like a bitch/snob (like making joke at my expense or something like that) ... cold girls can warm up too. What did I reveal with my language? No insinuations, be specific, please.
Oh, so when the subtle cues (the coldness! burr! maybe she wouldn't have had to be cold if you had paid attention to her body language...just sayin') didn't work, and she tried another tactic, a more direct tactic, THAT was bitchy. Got it. It was bitchy for her to be rude to someone who was rudely intruding himself on her notice. Sure is good you extrapolated that to "many women will want me to push their boundaries."

I would feel bad for the anxiety they carry. I know I would never intend to hurt someone or cause them pain. But lets say that is the case for 9/10 girls and the 1/10 actually likes me. Should I deny myself and the 1 the positive mutually beneficial interaction (that might lead to something great and long lasting) to save the 9 some temporary anxiety?


You would feel bad for the anxiety THEY CARRY? Wow, way to assume no responsibility for your own actions. You are acting in a way that makes them uncomfortable, and that you now KNOW makes some women uncomfortable, but it's their fault they're uncomfortable? You are a gem.

You would never intend to hurt someone, but you'd take the risk of hurting nine women because it is IMPERATIVE that you connect with the tenth. Sweet.

Or you could take the advice in the article, and watch for clues, and attempt to hurt as few women as possible. Even if it denies you what you want. You could try respecting the wishes she's clearly sending out, because you recognize her as an autonomous human being, who has the right not to want to talk to you. You know, just for kicks. What would that mean? It would mean you wouldn't get to have a potential relationship with a women whose behavior you have already described as "bitchy". Lordy, the world might end.

One more thing to think about: Let's say a man on the bus is wearing something you really like, or is reading something you really like. A big guy. Lots of muscles. You mention the thing you like. He glares at you (so cold!) and continues to read. Would you even consider pushing past his "bitchiness?" Would you keep harassing him? If you did, what message would it send to him? Be honest.
 
Just your particular brand of logic. :D

It's amusing how everyone refuses to acknowledge what she multiplied by 10 to get her number.

"If you had ten times as many IQ points you'd have 100!"

"I don't have 10 IQ points" :(

"I never said you did, where'd I say that? You can't say I said that. You don't know math"

:D

Since the male and female population is basically the same, if 1 in 6 women are sexually assaulted, 1 in 6 men would be assailants only if they each attacked one woman.

No one remotely considers this a possibility, in the article or otherwise, so I'm not sure why you're fixated on this.

And it's all sort of a waste of time since the available numbers paint a more startling picture:

Based on such measures, conservative estimates suggest that at least 25 percent of American women have been sexually assaulted in adolescence or adulthood and that 18 percent have been raped. Furthermore, at least 20 percent of American men report having perpetrated sexual assault and 5 percent report having committed rape (Crowell and Burgess 1996; Spitzberg 1999; Tjaden and Thoennes 2000). Due to their accessibility, college student surveys tend to employ the most thorough measures of sexual assault by including the largest number of behaviorally specific questions. These studies suggest that approximately 50 percent of college women have been sexually assaulted, and 27 percent have experienced rape or attempted rape; in contrast, 25 percent of college men have committed sexual assault, and 8 percent have committed rape or attempted rape (Crowell and Burgess 1996; Koss 1988; Spitzberg 1999).
http://www.athealth.com/Practitioner/ceduc/alc_assault.html
 
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You would feel bad...but...there's a potential 10 percent chance that she might like it, even if she said no at first.

Look, we both know you didn't mean it like that.At the same time, the article only says that you shouldn't talk to women who give you signs that they would like to be left alone. It seems strange that you would argue that point because there are times when everyone, male or female, would rather not deal with strangers.

Why don't you address the argument that I presented rather than call the side of the argument that I am on strange? I never argued to keep talking to someone for ever when they clearly dont want to talk, I argued that there are no absolutes and that some people will warm up and enjoy the interaction. Do you disagree?

What harm is caused by asking someone with earplugs reading the bible what there favorite passage is? They were annoyed for a few seconds? For 1 min? Oh the horror, such behavior is the bane of society.
 
Since the male and female population is basically the same, if 1 in 6 women are sexually assaulted, 1 in 6 men would be assailants only if they each attacked one woman.

No one remotely considers this a possibility, in the article or otherwise, so I'm not sure why you're fixated on this.

Because if there is any fault in the article it's her misuse of statistics to rationalize here considering men potential "rapists"

Is there any benefit of calling someone a potential rapist, when you really just consider them a potential threat?

Is it necessary to be specific and inflammatory and then use some poor interpretation of stats to get the exact same point across?

The answer is no, it isn't. It's just that using "rape" is bound to generate more attention through controversy.

It's more accurate to describe them as potential "abusers" than "rapists" (the term "jerk" was a little too lax, and "rapist" was a little too strong)

This thread has been entirely entertaining because as usual people don't want to discuss the issue, they want to paint you with a brush to try and discredit you. Try and make it about something it isn't.

The fact that she says 1 in 6 or 1 in 60 is wrong given the situations she describes. Just because she's wrong in applying the stats or possibly a little over dramatic in her wording doesn't take anything from the overall article. Nobody has said "She's wrong because she said this", it's a matter of "What she said here about the concentration of rapists and how she arrived at it is wrong".

There isn't a 1 in 60 chance there is a rapist on her bus, or in her gym or in her graduating class. The odds vary from situation to situation and don't even average out to 1 in 60. And especially not 1 in 6 "if" we assume each rapist commits 1 rape.
 
Why don't you address the argument that I presented rather than call the side of the argument that I am on strange? I never argued to keep talking to someone for ever when they clearly dont want to talk, I argued that there are no absolutes and that some people will warm up and enjoy the interaction. Do you disagree?

What harm is caused by asking someone with earplugs reading the bible what there favorite passage is? They were annoyed for a few seconds? For 1 min? Oh the horror, such behavior is the bane of society.

In the article she quite directly says that if the woman smiles at you and engages, that means she's interested and there's not problem.

She's writing about people who ignore clear signs that the woman is not interested or just doesn't want to be bothered.

It's amazing how many of these "objections" are just spurious angst over positions no one has taken.
 
Because if there is any fault in the article it's her misuse of statistics to rationalize here considering men potential "rapists"

[...]

There isn't a 1 in 60 chance there is a rapist on her bus, or in her gym or in her graduating class. The odds vary from situation to situation and don't even average out to 1 in 60. And especially not 1 in 6 "if" we assume each rapist commits 1 rape.

You're upset she didn't get specific with the numbers, even though the specific numbers make her case stronger than the generous assumptions she gave the opposing view, and you don't like the sensationalism of her words.

Send her an e-mail and maybe she'll consider your feelings before her next post.
 

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