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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Climate change lies are exposed

This is on the from of the Daily Express in the UK today (obvious right wing rag)

CLIMATE CHANGE LIES ARE EXPOSED

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/196642/Climate-change-lies-are-exposed

THE world’s leading climate change body has been accused of losing credibility after a damning report into its research practices.

A high-level inquiry into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found there was “little evidence” for its claims about global warming.

It also said the panel had emphasised the negative impacts of climate change and made “substantive findings” based on little proof.


Does anyone know anything about this? going quickly through the article I cant make out if the IAC has made some claim over the last couple of days (i.e. news) or is it a headline about something that happened months ago? in which case the article is just another example of extreme bias. No wonder people are confused over this issue.

And on the front of the UK Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/aug/30/bjorn-lomborg-climate-change-u-turn
The world's most high-profile climate change sceptic is to declare that global warming is "undoubtedly one of the chief concerns facing the world today" and "a challenge humanity must confront", in an apparent U-turn that will give a huge boost to the embattled environmental lobby.

Of course, the people who are going to buy the Express wont even look at the Guardian.
 
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This is on the from of the Daily Express in the UK today (obvious right wing rag)

CLIMATE CHANGE LIES ARE EXPOSED

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/196642/Climate-change-lies-are-exposed




Does anyone know anything about this? going quickly through the article I cant make out if the IAC has made some claim over the last couple of days (i.e. news) or is it a headline about something that happened months ago? in which case the article is just another example of extreme bias. No wonder people are confused over this issue.

And on the front of the UK Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/aug/30/bjorn-lomborg-climate-change-u-turn


Of course, the people who are going to buy the Express wont even look at the Guardian.

The article is a lie from start to finish. The report does not say anything like the reporter spins it to say. It says the AGW science is fundamentally right, despite there being a few mistakes in it.

For example, the statement

The Working Group II report, for example, contains some statements that were assigned high confidence but for which there is little evidence.
is correct.

the reporters spin that is taken from that statement becomes

A high-level inquiry into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found there was “little evidence” for its claims about global warming.

which is a complete misrepresentation. How does "Some" become an implied "All"?

Even then, it contradicts itself.

The IAC report makes several recommendations to fortify IPCC’s management structure, including establishing an executive committee to act on the Panel’s behalf and ensure that an ongoing decision-making capability is maintained. To enhance its credibility and independence, the executive committee should include individuals from outside the IPCC or even outside the climate science community.

The head of the IPCC, Pauchauri, is exactly that, he is from outside the IPCC, and he is outside the climate science community. He was appointed because that is exactly the demand that was already made, and it was met.
 
Global Warming -- What's the deal?

I read my first Skeptical Inquirer a month or two ago and the Letters to the Editor were upset that the SI was pushing global warming; IIRC and IIUC, the Inquirer authors had made pretty clear that global warming happened, it is caused by man, and that we can do something about it. Despite letters from skeptics -- including the head of Ontario Skeptics -- the article-writers were clear that the skeptic should accept the above mentioned assertions about global warming or otherwise he is being selective in his skepticism.

I saundered into my local library recently and was checking out Skeptic magazine and in the issue I was looking at, there was an article IIUC advocating the position that climate change skeptics should issue a lot of disclaimers and reject a lot of the craziness which FOX-styled anti-intellectuals (my words, not the author's, those were the types of people I was picturing when reading the article) promote, it is still fair to not believe in man-made climate change.

I don't have either of these magazines on me, but how should the skeptic layperson look at the issue of global warming? Is it fair to take positions taken by the "global warming skeptics" (e.g. global warming might not be so bad, nothing we do can help anyways, humans don't cause so much, all the stuff you hear on FOX or reading George Will or the Wall Street Journal, etc.)?
 
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That was a pretty good article in Skeptical Inquirer...I've shared it with several colleagues who, like me, don't have the time to become climate change experts. Actually, I don't feel the need to become an expert in climate change to understand the gist of the argument. When in doubt, I see what the scientific consensus is (and there does appear to be a consensus), and adopt that opinion unless I see clear, peer reviewed evidence to the contrary. Haven't seen any of that yet. What I do see is the climate change skeptics resorting to tactics used by creationists. Oh, can you pass the popcorn, CoolSceptic?
 
I think there is a lot of merit in debating AGW. We do know that without any influence from man, the planet is in a warming phase. Accumulating date suggests man is speeding the procress. So a worthy debate point is....just how much are we adding to the situation.

The next debate point becomes. Even if man reduces his influence to zero, what exactly is going to change, can anything be reveresed. Can even natural climate change be slowed or stopped. Do we even want to try

In having debates I think the following red flags suggest the debate is probably ill fated from the get go

Government conspiracy, they are using this to scare us and make us do whatever the government agenda is

Scientist conspiracy. As above

Science funding - Scientists go along with the fraud so they can line their pockets with enormous research grants
 
one should take the position that is supported by evidence.
 
I read my first Skeptical Inquirer a month or two ago and the Letters to the Editor were upset that the SI was pushing global warming; IIRC and IIUC, the Inquirer authors had made pretty clear that global warming happened, it is caused by man, and that we can do something about it. Despite letters from skeptics -- including the head of Ontario Skeptics -- the article-writers were clear that the skeptic should accept the above mentioned assertions about global warming or otherwise he is being selective in his skepticism.

I saundered into my local library recently and was checking out Skeptic magazine and in the issue I was looking at, there was an article IIUC advocating the position that climate change skeptics should issue a lot of disclaimers and reject a lot of the craziness which FOX-styled anti-intellectuals (my words, not the author's, those were the types of people I was picturing when reading the article) promote, it is still fair to not believe in man-made climate change.



I don't have either of these magazines on me, but how should the skeptic layperson look at the issue of global warming? Is it fair to take positions taken by the "global warming skeptics" (e.g. global warming might not be so bad, nothing we do can help anyways, humans don't cause so much, all the stuff you hear on FOX or reading George Will or the Wall Street Journal, etc.)?

You can always start with the IPCC report.
http://www.ipcc.ch/

Then evaluate the criticism and the counter arguments and then the follow up to those arguments.
 
Well, it would help if the warmist alarmists would stop wildly extrapolating into the future.

IIRC, the earth has warmed approx. 1 degree F in the last 100-150 years, which included a cooling period or two. (never any mention of what the margin of error of that 1 degree reading is, but I digress). And it seems that recently (since the mid 1970's) it has warmed even more. Where the AGW proponents lose me is that they extrapolate this recent warming trend well into the future and make dire predictions about massive flooding and other calamities.

I work in the financial markets and these AGW proponents remind me of some predictions back in 2000 that the U.S. stock market was promptly going to 30,000 and "its different this time" and stocks no longer had to be valued on the earnings and other such nonsense.

What a laugh. There seems very little skepticism on the side of the AGW proponents that the current warming trend will keep going. I am such a skeptic.
 
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I think there is a lot of merit in debating AGW. We do know that without any influence from man, the planet is in a warming phase.

Please support this assertion with cite and reference
 
Economics is not a science - but nice try...you analogy is useless.

From your post you are poorly read in current AGW science - you comment might be appropriate in the mid 90s

Start with the my signature and get yourself up to speed....the norm in a science forum is to provide support for a stance from science sources.
You have not supported your argument, which goes against the climate science consensus, and you have not iota of supporting backup.

There seems very little skepticism on the side of the AGW proponents that the current warming trend will keep going.
Because you don't have the science understanding that the laws of physics are not whimsical.....we have put a higher carbon concentration that the planet has seen in 12 million years and carbon retains heat in earth's atmosphere.

it's not a random process, it a measured, observed process that has been understood in broad scope for over a century.

Background/history
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

Carbon cycle
http://wufs.wustl.edu/pathfinder/pat...s_11_13_07.htm

How fast the consequences of the warming will unfold and how frequent the extreme events t engenders is still very much under study.

No fairy godmother is going to come by and wave a wand and make it all better.
The carbon has been accumulating above the natural cycle for 300 years and it is cumulative..

Published online: 20 November 2008 | doi:10.1038/climate.2008.122
Carbon is forever
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html

The hysterisis in the global energy budget is very high and buffered by the cryosphere and the hydrosphere with regards to transient impact on the atmosphere.

That same hysteresis tho means even if we stopped carbon emissions cold - another .6 degree C of warming would occur to reach energy budget equilibrium.

This is hard science in the traditional sense, not speculation junk from the economists wannabe scientists.

This physics. Perhaps you shuold try and catch up with where the science lies.
There is little skepticism ( none for practical purposes in the climate science community ) as AGW is a known understood physical phenomena like evolution.

Outcomes however and timing remain difficult to project, one reason being we do not know how well carbon limitations on emissions will be enforced.

So you end with a range of scenarios as MIT has undertaken.

MITs updated assessment
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090519134843.htm

Massive flooding is a directly physical response to a warmer climate as a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour.

Tropical storms are heat engines so stronger storms ( if not more frequent ) are a physical consequence of increased ocean heat especially at the surface.

The science is not hard....and to be an AGW skeptic these days is akin to being an evolution skeptic.

What is IS very hard is to determine a policy of what to do about the carbon emissions.
Even the fossil companies knew the reality from their own scientists in the mid- 90s.

Industry Ignored Its Scientists on Climate

By ANDREW C. REVKINPublished: April 23, 2009

For more than a decade the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing industries with profits tied to fossil fuels, led an aggressive lobbying and public relations campaign against the idea that emissions of heat-trapping gases could lead to global warming.

“The role of greenhouse gases in climate change is not well understood,” the coalition said in a scientific “backgrounder” provided to lawmakers and journalists through the early 1990s, adding that “scientists differ” on the issue.

But a document filed in a federal lawsuit demonstrates that even as the coalition worked to sway opinion, its own scientific and technical experts were advising that the science backing the role of greenhouse gases in global warming could not be refuted.
Industry Ignored Its Scientists on Climate - NYTimes.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/science/earth/24deny.html?_r=2

Perhaps you missed the memo....:garfield:
 
...
I saundered into my local library recently and was checking out Skeptic magazine and in the issue I was looking at, there was an article IIUC advocating the position that climate change skeptics should issue a lot of disclaimers and reject a lot of the craziness which FOX-styled anti-intellectuals (my words, not the author's, those were the types of people I was picturing when reading the article) promote, it is still fair to not believe in man-made climate change.
...
The same Brin's article is here for everyone to read it.
 
I think there is a lot of merit in debating AGW. We do know that without any influence from man, the planet is in a warming phase

Umm wrong....the planet is actually drifting slowly into a cooler phase and that was shown in the Holocene temperature records and is confirmed by our orbital positioning in the Milankovich cycle.
http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htm

We would have been approaching the end of the interglacial but instead have likely cancelled or delayed at least one if not the next 5 glacial periods.

Next Ice Age Delayed By Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels

ScienceDaily (Aug. 30, 2007) — Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil fuels. That is the implication of recent work by Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton.

Next Ice Age Delayed by Global Warming, Study Says

Christine Dell'Amore
National Geographic News

September 3, 2009
Humans are putting the brakes on the next ice age, according to the most extensive study to date on Arctic climate change.
The Arctic may be warmer than it's been in the past 2,000 years—a trend that is reversing a natural cooling cycle dictated by a wobble in Earth's axis.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090903-arctic-warming-ice-age.html

Next Ice Age Delayed by Burning of Fossil Fuels

Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil fuels, according to a new study released by researchers lead by Dr. Toby Tyrell at the University of South Hampton.
2002937422595931698_rs.jpg

The current warming of the Earth is also blamed on the burning of fossil fuels.
The team used a mathematical model to predict what would happen.
Dr Tyrrell said, “Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result.”
Humanity has to date burnt about 300 gigatons of carbon of fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 gigatons are eventually burnt (out of total reserves of about 4000 gigatons of carbon) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped.
Burning all recoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages.
Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years, due to the change in Earth’s orbit.

http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/sciencetech/next-ice-age-delayed-by-burning-of-fossil-fuels/251

So were in a cooling trend due to orbital configuration, not a warming trend as you stated without supporting evidence.

We have reversed that and in doing so delayed the end of the interglacial.

The debate is not in the reality of AGW - that was established a decade or more ago.

The debate is what to do about the reality of a warming world....and how not to make it far worse.
 
I think there is a lot of merit in debating AGW. We do know that without any influence from man, the planet is in a warming phase.

Really? Which forcings are driving this warming phase? After all, the planet doesn't just magically warm and cool, something has to cause it to happen.
 
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